SABR for early-stage lung cancer: Early-adoption and future directions

Early-stage lung cancer incidence among older adults is expected to increase due to demographic trends and CT-based screening, yet optimal treatment of lung cancer in the elderly remains controversial. There are several accepted strategies for treating lung cancer including surgery, conventional radiation, and stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR). However, there are currently no randomized controlled trials to help distinguish the comparative effectiveness of these various strategies. This is an unfortunate omission as lung cancer causes the most deaths among all cancers in the United States (as well as the entire world). SABR holds particular promise as it is a completely non-invasive, ambulatory technique for achieving cure without an operation, thus avoiding the risks of surgery and the associated pre-operative and post-operative costs. To provide fair view of the potential effect on SABR on controlling lung cancer in the United States, a systematic review of SABR with a focus on its achieved outcomes, toxicities, and comparison to conventional radiation and surgical options is presented. ^

Future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows the possible future situations 50 years from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), dew point (Td), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) trends during the 1980-2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman- Montheith equation to estimate ETo. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, considering the concentration of CO2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly). The scenarios studied showed the changes in ETo as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables Tmax, Tmin, Td, U and Rn with current and future CO2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ETo showed increases between 118 mm (11%) and 55 mm (5%) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin?s crops

Current Trends in Pan-European Identity Management Systems

The demand for electronic identity has grown as a result of governments? promotion of e-Government, in which the citizen-public administration relationship often has a strictly personal nature and requires digital identification systems that are univocal, secure, and global. The management of this identity by public administrations is an important challenge, accentuated when interoperability among public administrations of different countries become necessary. In this paper current trends in pan-euroean identity management systems are analysized and a outlook of the future European scenary is shown.

World food trends and prospects to 2025

This paper reviews food (especially cereal) production trends and prospects for the world and its main regions. Despite fears to the contrary, in recent years we have seen continued progress toward better methods of feeding humanity. Sub-Saharan Africa is the sole major exception. Looking to the future, this paper argues that the continuation of recent cereal yield trends should be sufficient to cope with most of the demographically driven expansion of cereal demand that will occur until the year 2025. However, because of an increasing degree of mismatch between the expansion of regional demand and the potential for supply, there will be a major expansion of world cereal (and noncereal food) trade. Other consequences for global agriculture arising from demographic growth include the need to use water much more efficiently and an even greater dependence on nitrogen fertilizers (e.g., South Asia). Farming everywhere will depend more on information-intensive agricultural management procedures. Moreover, despite continued general progress, there still will be a significant number of undernourished people in 2025. Signs of heightened harvest variability, especially in North America, are of serious concern. Thus, although future general food trends are likely to be positive, in some respects we also could be entering a more volatile world.

From pre-Hispanic to future conservation alternatives: Lessons from Mexico

In this paper, we review some past and present trends in biodiversity conservation in Mexico and explore possible explanations of why, in spite of this long history of depredation and ineffective conservation policies, the ecosystems have been able to cope with and retain most of their biological components. We suggest a hypothesis based on the persistence of a complex mosaic of past and present traditional land uses as a possible explanation for this resilience. We propose an agenda for the scope of future conservation research and policy, particularly the need to take the socioeconomic context of environmental degradation into account. We put forth a series of questions that we think need to be investigated if the conservation research community is to participate in developing solutions for the future welfare of the human species and of biodiversity on earth.

Future of skills in Europe-Convergence or polarisation? CEPS Working Document No. 390, 27 February 2014

In this Working Paper, based on nearly 20 papers produced by the Centre for European Policy Studies, Slovak Governance Institute and the Conference Board Europe, we examine whether the current trends in the areas of education and skills are pushing the European Union, towards convergence or polarisation. We cover a wide range of questions related to this main issue. No easy answers, but several cross-cutting messages emerged from the research. We demonstrated that there is increasing complexity in what a ‘low-skilled’ person is and how well (or poorly) s/he fares in the labour market. There are undoubtedly powerful forces pushing for more polarisation, particularly in the labour market. Our research confirmed that early childhood education plays an important role, and it also appears to be increasingly uncontested as a policy prescription. However, the other frequently emphasised remedy to inequality – less selection in secondary education, particularly later division of children into separate tracks – is more problematic. Its effectiveness depends on the country in question and the target group, while education systems are extremely difficult to shift even on a long-term basis. A different, more-nuanced type of warning to policy-makers is delivered in our research on returns to higher education by field of study, which showed hidden rationality in how students choose their major.

The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe. CEPS Paperback, 2 April 2014

This groundbreaking study concentrates on a set of critical economic factors that will shape future economic growth at the global level and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope. Our goal in pursuing this research is not to make precise predictions about growth rates or the size of individual economies, but to provide a guide for EU policy-makers by presenting an assessment of the possible implications of such trends for the global economy and the policy challenges they raise for Europe. In an attempt to respond to this need, this study concentrates on a set of critical economic factors that will shape future economic growth at the global level and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope, which often go beyond the purely economic dimension. Our ultimate goal is to provide a guide for policy-makers by presenting an assessment of the possible implications of such trends for the global economy and the policy challenges they raise for Europe.

The economic and financial crisis in Russia – background, symptoms and prospects for the future. OSW Report 02/2015

The crisis in Russia’s financial market, which started in mid-December 2014, has exposed the real scale of the economic problems that have been growing in Russia for several years. Over the course of the last year, Russia’s basic macroeconomic indicators deteriorated considerably, the confidence of its citizens in the state and in institutions in charge of economic stability declined, the government and business elites became increasingly dissatisfied with the policy direction adopted by the Kremlin, and fighting started over the shrinking resources. According to forecasts obtained from both governmental and expert communities, Russia will fall into recession in 2015. The present situation is the result of the simultaneous occurrence of three unfavourable trends: the fact that the Russian economy’s resource-based development model has reached the limits of its potential due to structural weaknesses, the dramatic decline in oil prices in the second half of 2014, and the impact of Western economic sanctions. Given the inefficiency of existing systemic mechanisms, in the coming years the Russian leadership will likely resort to ad hoc solutions such as switching to a more interventionist “manual override” mode in governing the state. In the short term, this will allow them to neutralise the most urgent problems, although an effective development policy will be impossible without a fundamental change of the political and economic system in Russia.

Trends in diabetes incidence from 1992 to 2015 and projections for 2024: A Portuguese General Practitioner’s Network study

Background: Diabetes is known as a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Portugal is known as the European country with the highest prevalence of this disease. While diabetes prevalence data is updated annually in Portugal, the General Practitioner’s (GP) Sentinel Network represents the only data source on diabetes incidence. This study describes the trends in Diabetes incidence, between 1992 and 2015, and estimate projections for the future incidence rates in Portugal until 2024. Methods: An ecological time-series study was conducted using data from GP Sentinel Network between 1992 and 2015. Family doctors reported all new cases of Diabetes in their patients’ lists. Annual trends were estimated through Poisson regression models as well as the future incidence rates (until 2024), sex and age group stratified. Incidence rate projections were adjusted to the distribution of the resident Portuguese population given Statistics Portugal projections. Results: The average increase in Diabetes incidence rate was in total 4.29% (CI95% 3.80–4.80) per year under study. Until 1998–2000, the annual incidence rate was higher in women, and from 1998–2000 to 2013–2015 turn out to be higher in men. The incidence rate projected for 2022–2024 was 972.77/105 inhabitants in total, and 846.74/105 and 1114.42/105, respectively, in women and men. Conclusions: This is the first study in Portugal to estimate diabetes incidence rate projections. The disturbing reported projections seem realistic if things continue as in the past. Actually, effective public health policies will need to be undertaken to minimize this alarming future scenario.

Human services in Illinois : trends and projections to the year 2000 /

"Prepared for the Task Force on the Future of Illinois."

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduced mammals in Australian rangelands: Future threats and the role of monitoring programmes in management strategies

In the present paper, we have provided an initial assessment of the current and future threats to biodiversity posed by introduced mammals (predators and herbivores) inhabiting the Australian rangelands, exploring trends in populations and options for management. Notably, rabbits have declined in recent years in the wake of rabbit haemorrhagic disease, populations of feral camels have increased dramatically and foxes appear to have moved northwards, thereby threatening native fauna within an expanded range. Following on, we developed a framework for monitoring the impacts of introduced mammals in the Australian rangelands. In doing so, we considered the key issues that needed to be considered in designing a monitoring programme for this purpose and critically evaluated the role of monitoring in pest animal management. Finally we have provided a brief inventory of current best-practice methods of estimating the abundance of introduced mammal populations in the Australian rangelands with some comments on new approaches and their potential applications.

Board gender diversity in UK firms – recent trends and performance eEffects

This paper provides an overview of the position of women directors in UK firms. Based on data for all UK firms with more than three directors, this data provides a comprehensive picture of the position of women in UK business leadership and contributes to our understanding of progress towards achieving greater gender balance in the boardroom. Five key points emerge. •Female directors account for around 1:4 directors in UK firms but only around 1:10 businesses in the UK are female controlled. •Only 1:226 larger firms in this category have a majority of female directors. •The overall proportion of female directors in the UK has grown in recent years but slowly. At the rate of progress achieved over the 2003-2005 period, it will be the year 2225 before gender balance in company directorships is achieved in the UK. •There are a significant and interesting group of 12, 600 sisterhood companies in the UK – those wholly owned and led by women. Although they are predominantly services, these do firms exist in all business sectors with a focus on smaller companies. These firms represent an interesting potential focus for future research. •Our analysis of board gender diversity and business growth suggests that there is a business cost to gender balance in terms of foregone growth.

The future workplace:views from the floor

Speculation on the future of work and the nature of the future workplace has come to dominate much academic discourse in recent years. Rarely however has the voice of what might be termed the average skilled employee been heard; those who are still shaping a career and may be most at the mercy of whatever changes occur. This study seeks to fill this gap. Stemming from a 1-year research project at Cranfield School of Management, this paper focuses on data collected from a survey exploring the understanding of current and future organisations, and the nature of current and future leadership. The survey was carried out in 2003 and sampled 469 MBA graduates and a further 340 respondents to a web-based questionnaire. The paper provides an overview of the academic discourse on the future workplace, explores the perceptions and expectations of the sample and draws conclusions regarding significant anticipated trends for the future workplace as seen by those on the shop floor. These centre around increased flexibility and autonomy, but with limited awareness of the nature of leadership skills required to lead such a workforce. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The past, present and future of observational research in marketing

Purpose - To introduce the contents of the special issue, and provide an integrative overview of the development of observational methodologies in marketing research, as well as some directions for the future. Design/methodology/approach - A historical review of the development of observational methods, beginning with philosophical foundations, is provided. Key philosophical debates are summarized, and trends in observational methods are described and analyzed, with particular reference to the impact of technology. Following this, the contributions to the special issue are summarized and brought together. Findings - Observational research in marketing is more than the well-known method of "participant-observation." In fact, technology has the potential to revolutionize observational research, and move it beyond a solely "qualitative" method. The internet, video, scanner-tracking, and neuroimaging methods are all likely to have a big impact on the development of traditional and innovative observation methods in the future. The articles in the special issue provide a good overview of these developments. Research limitations/implications - The views of the authors may differ from those of others. Practical implications - Observation is a far more wide-ranging strategy than many perceive. There is a need for more expertise in all types of observational methodologies within marketing research schools and departments, in order to take account of the vast opportunities which are currently emerging. Originality/value - Provides an original perspective on observational methods, and serves as a useful overview of trends and developments in the field.