Barbados: public-private sector partnership

Includes bibliography

Possible transmission of adverse shocks from the recent financial crisis to Central America through trade finance

Includes Bibliography

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

Conditioned food aversion to control poisoning by Ipomoea carnea subsp. fistulosa in goats

Para testar a técnica de aversão alimentar condicionada como método de controle para a intoxicação por I. carnea, foram realizados 3 experimentos administrando cloreto de lítio (LiCl) na dose de 175-200mg kg-1 após a ingestão da planta por caprinos. No primeiro, foram induzidos à aversão 10 caprinos que tinham o hábito de ingerir a planta e com sinais clínicos da intoxicação. Apesar da realização de diversos tratamentos aversivos, após os animais ingerirem a planta, a aversão não foi eficiente, demonstrando que a técnica não é eficiente em caprinos que já estão habituados a ingerir a planta. No segundo experimento, 14 caprinos foram adaptados a ingerir a planta na pastagem e, após ingerirem a planta a campo, foram induzidos à aversão com LiCl. Neste grupo, a aversão persistiu até o fim do Experimento, 2 anos e 8 meses após a aversão. Em outro experimento, 20 caprinos foram adaptados a consumir I. carnea e, em seguida, induzidos à aversão com LiCl. Esses animais foram transferidos para uma propriedade na Ilha de Marajó, onde foram realizadas 9 visitas com intervalos de 2-3 meses para verificar a duração da aversão. Após 2 anos de observações, nenhum animal voltou a ingerir a planta na pastagem e não foram observados casos de intoxicação, enquanto que, em 6 propriedades vizinhas, a doença foi observada com uma prevalência de até 60%. Esses resultados demonstram a eficiência da aversão alimentar condicionada para evitar a ingestão de I. carnea em caprinos recém adaptados a ingerir a planta, nas regiões invadidas por esta planta e nas condições naturais da Ilha de Marajó.

Análises, aplicações e validações–numérico/experimentais do modelo SWAN em áreas restritas e ao largo

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Congo grass grown in rotation with soybean affects phosphorus bound to soil carbon

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Feeding, body condition and reproductive investment of Astyanax intermedius (Characiformes, Characidae) in relation to rainfall and temperature in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest stream

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Wildlife Risk Management at Vancouver International Airport

The Vancouver International Airport (YVR) is the second busiest airport in Canada. YVR is located on Sea Island in the Fraser River Estuary - a world-class wintering and staging area for hundreds of thousands of migratory birds. The Fraser Delta supports Canada’s largest wintering populations of waterfowl, shorebirds, and raptors. The large number of aircraft movements and the presence of many birds near YVR pose a wide range of considerable aviation safety hazards. Until the late 1980s when a full-time Wildlife Control Program (WCP) was initiated, YVR had the highest number of bird strikes of any Canadian commercial airport. Although the risks of bird strikes associated with the operation of YVR are generally well known by airport managers, and a number of risk assessments have been conducted associated with the Sea Island Conservation Area, no quantitative assessment of risks of bird strikes has been conducted for airport operations at YVR. Because the goal of all airports is to operate safely, an airport wildlife management program strives to reduce the risk of bird strikes. A risk assessment establishes the current risk of strikes, which can be used as a benchmark to focus wildlife control activities and to assess the effectiveness of the program in reducing bird strike risks. A quantitative risk assessment also documents the process and information used in assessing risk and allows the assessment to be repeated in the future in order to measure the change in risk over time in an objective and comparative manner. This study was undertaken to comply with new Canadian legislation expected to take effect in 2006 requiring airports in Canada to conduct a risk assessment and develop a wildlife management plan. Although YVR has had a management plan for many years, it took this opportunity to update the plan and conduct a risk assessment.

Microfacies and sequence stratigraphy of the Amapa Formation, Late Paleocene to Early Eocene, Foz do Amazonas Basin, Brazil

On the basis of thin-section studies of cuttings and a core from two wells in the Amapa Formation of the Foz do Amazonas Basin, five main microfacies have been recognized within three stratigraphic sequences deposited during the Late Paleocene to Early Eocene. The facies are: 1) Ranikothalia grainstone to packstone facies; 2) ooidal grainstone to packstone facies; 3) larger foraminiferal and red algal grainstone to packstone facies; 4) Amphistegina and Helicostegina packstone facies; and 5) green algal and small benthic foraminiferal grainstone to packstone facies, divisible locally into a green algal and the miliolid foraminiferal subfacies and a green algal and small rotaliine foraminiferal subfacies. The lowermost sequence (Si) was deposited in the Late Paleocene-Early Eocene (biozone LF1, equivalent to P3-P6?) and includes rudaceous grainstones and packstones with large specimens of Ranikothalia bermudezi representative of the mid- and inner ramp. The intermediate and uppermost sequences (S2 and S3) display well-developed lowstand deposits formed at the end of the Late Paleocene (upper biozone LF1) and beginning of the Early Eocene (biozone LF2) on the inner ramp (larger foraminiferal and red algal grainstone to packstone facies), in lagoons (green algal and small benthic foraminiferal facies) and as shoals (ooidal facies) or banks (Amphistegina and Helicostegina facies). Depth and oceanic influence were the main controls on the distribution of these microfacies. Stratal stacking patterns evident within these sequences may well have been related to sea level changes postulated for the Late Paleocene and Early Eocene. During this time, the Amapa Formation was dominated by cyclic sedimentation on a gently sloping ramp. Environmental and ecological stress brought about by sea level change at the end of the biozone LF1 led to the extinction of the larger foraminifera (Ranikothalia bermudezi). (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A NEW AND THREATENED INSULAR SPECIES OF LANCEHEAD FROM SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL

We describe a new species of Bothrops from Vitoria Island, off the coast of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. The new species differs from the mainland coastal populations of B. jararaca mostly in its smaller and stouter body, number and form of scales, and hemipenial morphology. From B. insularis and B. alcatraz, both related species endemic to islands in southeastern Brazil, B. otavioi sp. nov. differs mainly in its body form and number of scales. The new species has the twist common mitochondrial haplotype for mainland populations of B. jararaca, which is also found in B. alcatraz. A mitochondrial genealogy (gene tree) shows the new species nested within the northern clade of B. jararaca. This genealogical pattern can be explained by a recent speciation event for B. otavioi sp. nov. The isolation of insular species of Bothrops from continental ancestor populations are probably related to the same vicariant process, the oscillations of sea level during the Pleistocene. The new species feeds on small hylid frogs, and attains sexual maturity at 388 mm snout-vent length (SVL; males) and 692 mm SVL (females). Bothrops facial sp. nov. is endemic to Vitoria Island, and should be listed as critically endangered because it is known from only a single area (an island), its geographic range covers less than 100 km(2), and there is a projected continuing decline in the quality of its habitat because of increasing human settlement.

Currents controlling sedimentation, deposits recording palaeo-hydrodynamics – lessons from the continental shelf-slope system off SE South America

The continental margin off SE South America hosts one of the world’s most energetic hydrodynamic regimes but also the second largest drainage system of the continent. Both, the ocean current system as well as the fluvial runoff are strongly controlled by the atmospheric circulation modes over the region. The distribution pattern of particular types of sediments on shelf and slope and the long-term built-up of depositional elements within the overall margin architecture are, thus, the product of both, seasonal to millennial variability as well as long-term environmental trends. This talk presents how the combination of different methodological approaches can be used to obtain a comprehensive picture of the variability of a shelf and upper-slope hydrodynamic system during Holocene times. The particular methods applied are: (a) Margin-wide stratigraphic information to elucidate the role of sea level for the oceanographic and sedimentary systems since the last glacial maximum; (b) Palaeoceanographic sediment proxies combined with palaeo-temperature indicating isotopes of bivalve shells to trace lateral shifts in the coastal oceanography (particularly of the shelf front) during the Holocene; (c) Neodymium isotopes to identify the shelf sediment transport routes resulting from the current regime; (d) Sedimentological/geochemical data to show the efficient mechanism of sand export from the shelf to the open ocean; (e) Diatom assemblages and sediment element distributions indicating palaeo-salinity and the changing marine influence to illustrate the Plata runoff history. Sea level has not only controlled the overall configuration of the shelf but also the position of the main sediment routes from the continent towards the ocean. The shelf front has shifted frequently since the last glacial times probably resulting from both, changes in the Westerly Winds intensity and in the shelf width itself. Remarkable is a southward shift of this front during the past two centuries possibly related to anthropogenic influences on the atmosphere. The oceanographic regime with its prominent hydrographic boundaries led to a clear separation of sedimentary provinces since shelf drowning. It is especially the shelf front which enhances shelf sediment export through a continuous high sand supply to the uppermost slope. Finally, the Plata River does not continuously provide sediment to the shelf but shows significant climate-related changes in discharge during the past centuries. Starting from these findings, three major fields of research should, in general, be further developed in future: (i) The immediate interaction of the hydrodynamic and sedimentary systems to close the gaps between deposit information and modern oceanographic dynamics; (ii) Material budget calculations for the marginal ocean system in terms of material fluxes, storage/retention capacities, and critical thresholds; (iii) The role of human activity on the atmospheric, oceanographic and solid material systems to unravel natural vs. anthropogenic effects and feedback mechanisms

Shedding light on the role of the prokaryotic assemblage in the biogeochemical cycles of the dark ocean

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