Novel methods and the maximum likelihood estimation technique for estimating traffic critical gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for use in traffic impact assessments

Findings from an online survey conducted by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) shows that Australia is suffering from a lack of data reflecting trip generation for use in Traffic Impact Assessments (TIAs). Current independent variables for trip generation estimation are not able to create robust outcomes as well. It is also challenging to account for the impact of the new development on public and active transport as well as the effect of trip chaining behaviour in Australian TIA studies. With this background in mind, research is being implemented by QUT to find a new approach developing a combined model of trip generation and mode choice with consideration of trip chaining effects. It is expected that the model will provide transferable outcomes as it is developed based on socio-demographic parameters. Child Care Centres within the Brisbane area have been nominated for model development. At the time, the project is in the data collection phase. Findings from the pilot survey associated with capturing trip chaining and mode choice information reveal that applying questionnaire is able to capture required information in an acceptable level. The result also reveals that several centres within an area should be surveyed in order to provide sufficient data for trip chaining and modal split analysis.

The relationship between Bayesian motor unit number estimation and histological measurements of motor neurons in wild-type and SOD1 G93A mice

Objective: To assess the relationship between Bayesian MUNE and histological motor neuron counts in wild-type mice and in an animal model of ALS. Methods: We performed Bayesian MUNE paired with histological counts of motor neurons in the lumbar spinal cord of wild-type mice and transgenic SOD1 G93A mice that show progressive weakness over time. We evaluated the number of acetylcholine endplates that were innervated by a presynaptic nerve. Results: In wild-type mice, the motor unit number in the gastrocnemius muscle estimated by Bayesian MUNE was approximately half the number of motor neurons in the region of the spinal cord that contains the cell bodies of the motor neurons supplying the hindlimb crural flexor muscles. In SOD1 G93A mice, motor neuron numbers declined over time. This was associated with motor endplate denervation at the end-stage of disease. Conclusion: The number of motor neurons in the spinal cord of wild-type mice is proportional to the number of motor units estimated by Bayesian MUNE. In SOD1 G93A mice, there is a lower number of estimated motor units compared to the number of spinal cord motor neurons at the end-stage of disease, and this is associated with disruption of the neuromuscular junction. Significance: Our finding that the Bayesian MUNE method gives estimates of motor unit numbers that are proportional to the numbers of motor neurons in the spinal cord supports the clinical use of Bayesian MUNE in monitoring motor unit loss in ALS patients. © 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for TIA

Transport Impact Assessment (TIA) -Generally a short range transport planning activity -Assess transport impacts of new developments or expansions -Present solutions to mitigate impacts Problems with TIA Process -Private vehicles focus (i.e. Veh Trip Ends) -Proxy variables (e.g. 100sqm GFA) -Trip generation rates (e.g. VTE/proxy) -Little info/guidance on trip chaining effects -Little info/guidance on non-PV modes Requires significant professional judgment

A framework for life cycle cost estimation of a product family at the early stage of product development

A cost estimation method is required to estimate the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development in order to evaluate the product family design. There are difficulties with existing cost estimation techniques in estimating the life cycle cost for a product family at the early stage of product development. This paper proposes a framework that combines a knowledge based system and an activity based costing techniques in estimating the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development. The inputs of the framework are the product family structure and its sub function. The output of the framework is the life cycle cost of a product family that consists of all costs at each product family level and the costs of each product life cycle stage. The proposed framework provides a life cycle cost estimation tool for a product family at the early stage of product development using high level information as its input. The framework makes it possible to estimate the life cycle cost of various product family that use any types of product structure. It provides detailed information related to the activity and resource costs of both parts and products that can assist the designer in analyzing the cost of the product family design. In addition, it can reduce the required amount of information and time to construct the cost estimation system.

Marginal reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo with application to motor unit number estimation

Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is a method which aims to provide a quantitative indicator of progression of diseases that lead to loss of motor units, such as motor neurone disease. However the development of a reliable, repeatable and fast real-time MUNE method has proved elusive hitherto. Ridall et al. (2007) implement a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm to produce a posterior distribution for the number of motor units using a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account biological information about motor unit activation. However we find that the approach can be unreliable for some datasets since it can suffer from poor cross-dimensional mixing. Here we focus on improved inference by marginalising over latent variables to create the likelihood. In particular we explore how this can improve the RJMCMC mixing and investigate alternative approaches that utilise the likelihood (e.g. DIC (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002)). For this model the marginalisation is over latent variables which, for a larger number of motor units, is an intractable summation over all combinations of a set of latent binary variables whose joint sample space increases exponentially with the number of motor units. We provide a tractable and accurate approximation for this quantity and also investigate simulation approaches incorporated into RJMCMC using results of Andrieu and Roberts (2009).

Dynamic equivalent state estimation for multi-area power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units

This paper proposes a new approach for state estimation of angles and frequencies of equivalent areas in large power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units. Defining coherent generators and their correspondent areas, generators are aggregated and system reduction is performed in each area of inter-connected power systems. The structure of the reduced system is obtained based on the characteristics of the reduced linear model and measurement data to form the non-linear model of the reduced system. Then a Kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to provide an equivalent dynamic system state estimation using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The method is simulated on two test systems to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Comparative study of depth-dependent characteristics of equine and human osteochondral tissue from the medial and lateral femoral condyles

Articular cartilage defects are common after joint injuries. When left untreated, the biomechanical protective function of cartilage is gradually lost, making the joint more susceptible to further damage, causing progressive loss of joint function and eventually osteoarthritis (OA). In the process of translating promising tissue-engineering cartilage repair approaches from bench to bedside, pre-clinical animal models including mice, rabbits, goats, and horses, are widely used. The equine species is becoming an increasingly popular model for the in vivo evaluation of regenerative orthopaedic approaches. As there is also an increasing body of evidence suggesting that successful lasting tissue reconstruction requires an implant that mimics natural tissue organization, it is imperative that depth-dependent characteristics of equine osteochondral tissue are known, to assess to what extent they resemble those in humans. Therefore, osteochondral cores (4-8 mm) were obtained from the medial and lateral femoral condyles of equine and human donors. Cores were processed for histology and for biochemical quantification of DNA, glycosaminoglycan (GAG) and collagen content. Equine and human osteochondral tissues possess similar geometrical (thickness) and organizational (GAG, collagen and DNA distribution with depth) features. These comparable trends further underscore the validity of the equine model for the evaluation of regenerative approaches for articular cartilage.

Evaluation of the Suchey-Brooks Method of age estimation in an Australian subpopulation using computed tomography of the pubic symphyseal surface

Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations. This study assessed the accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia and provides robust age parameters calibrated for our population. Three-dimensional surface reconstructions were generated from computed tomography scans of the pubic symphysis of male and female Caucasian individuals aged 15–70 years (n = 195) in Amira® and Rapidform®. Error was analyzed on the basis of bias, inaccuracy and percentage correct classification for left and right symphyseal surfaces. Application of transition analysis and Chi-square statistics demonstrated 63.9% and 69.7% correct age classification associated with the left symphyseal surface of Australian males and females, respectively, using the S-B method. Using Bayesian statistics, probability density distributions for each S-B phase were calculated, providing refined age parameters for our population. Mean inaccuracies of 6.77 (±2.76) and 8.28 (±4.41) years were reported for the left surfaces of males and females, respectively; with positive biases for younger individuals (<55 years) and negative biases in older individuals. Significant sexual dimorphism in the application of the S-B method was observed; and asymmetry in phase classification of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon. These results recommend that the S-B method should be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of Queensland skeletal remains and warrant further investigation of reliable age estimation techniques.

Estimation of illuminance on the south facing surfaces for clear skies in Iran

Background: Daylight availability data are essential for designing effectively day lighted buildings. In respect to no available daylight availability data in Iran, illuminance data on the south facing vertical surfaces were estimated using a proper method. Methods: An illuminance measuring set was designed for measuring vertical illuminances for standard times over 15 days at one hour intervals from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. at three measuring stations (Hamadan, Eshtehard and Kerman). Measuring data were used to confirm predicted by the IESNA method. Results: Measurement of respective illuminances on the south vertical surfaces resulted in minimum values of 10.5 KLx, mean values of 33.59 KLx and maximum values of 79.6 KLx. Conclusion: In this study was developed a regression model between measured and calculated data of south facing vertical illuminance. This model, have a good linear correlation between measured and calculated values (r= 0.892).

Mobility and active ageing in suburban environments : findings from in-depth interviews and person-based GPS tracking

Background. Governments face a significant challenge to ensure that community environments meet the mobility needs of an ageing population. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the effect of suburban environments on the choice of transportation and its relation to participation and active ageing. Objective. This research explores if and how suburban environments impact older people’s mobility and their use of different modes of transport. Methods. Data derived from GPS tracking, travel diaries, brief questionnaires, and semistructured interviews were gathered from thirteen people aged from 56 to 87 years, living in low-density suburban environments in Brisbane, Australia. Results. The suburban environment influenced the choice of transportation and out-of-home mobility. Both walkability and public transportation (access and usability) impact older people’s transportation choices. Impracticality of active and public transportation within suburban environments creates car dependency in older age. Conclusion. Suburban environments often create barriers to mobility, which impedes older people’s engagement in their wider community and ability to actively age in place. Further research is needed to develop approaches towards age-friendly suburban environments which will encourage older people to remain active and engaged in older age.

Machine prognostics based on health state estimation using SVM

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation, and can also improve productivity and enhance system safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and an assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. All machine components are subjected to degradation processes in real environments and they have certain failure characteristics which can be related to the operating conditions. This paper describes a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation and involving historical knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostics and prognostics systems. The technique uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier as a tool for estimating health state probability of machine degradation, which can affect the accuracy of prediction. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, real life historical data from bearings of High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were analysed and used to obtain the optimal prediction of remaining useful life. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognostic system based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for remnant life prediction in industrial machinery.

Analytical model for fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays in power systems [电力系统故障诊断与不可观测保护状态识别的解析模型]

In recent years, some models have been proposed for the fault section estimation and state identification of unobserved protective relays (FSE-SIUPR) under the condition of incomplete state information of protective relays. In these models, the temporal alarm information from a faulted power system is not well explored although it is very helpful in compensating the incomplete state information of protective relays, quickly achieving definite fault diagnosis results and evaluating the operating status of protective relays and circuit breakers in complicated fault scenarios. In order to solve this problem, an integrated optimization mathematical model for the FSE-SIUPR, which takes full advantage of the temporal characteristics of alarm messages, is developed in the framework of the well-established temporal constraint network. With this model, the fault evolution procedure can be explained and some states of unobserved protective relays identified. The model is then solved by means of the Tabu search (TS) and finally verified by test results of fault scenarios in a practical power system.