Capital Flows to Latin America and the Caribbean: 2014 Overview

Divergence in macro trends and in monetary policy in advanced economies was a dominant driver of rates and currencies in emerging markets in 2014. Diverging macroeconomic developments were reflected in different monetary policy actions in 2014, with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) moving in the opposite direction of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The unwinding of the U.S. monetary stimulus, while the ECB and the BOJ step up their monetary stimulus, has underpinned an appreciation by the U.S. dollar, in which most commodities are priced. Latin American markets, which started the year under pressure from fears of the U.S. Federal Reserve tapering off its quantitative easing program and concerns over stability, ended 2014 under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar. However, there are many signs that a slowdown in LAC financial markets – particularly debt markets, which have been breaking records in debt issuance for the past six years – is under way. The region’s growth prospects look somewhat brighter in 2015 relative to 2014, but a strengthening U.S. dollar, uneven global growth and weakness in commodity prices are skewing the risk toward the downside for the 2015 forecasts across the region.

Global integration, disarticulation and competitiveness in Mexico’s electromechanical sector: A structural analysis

This article analyses the dual functioning of the Mexican electromechanical sector between 1994 and 2008, as distinct from other globalized activities. An estimation of labour productivity in 52 industrial classes finds that structural heterogeneity increased particularly in the 1994-2001 subperiod, alongside technical and organizational improvements that were increasingly concentrated in a small number of subsidiary companies of transnational automotive-assembly enterprises. The application of a shift-share technique also revealed the absence of any significant structural change. Lastly, an extension of the methodology to evaluate competitiveness —developed by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (eclac)— and its application to a second database that reclassifies 1,345 foreign trade products, makes it possible to contrast these changes with the dynamism of the global production networks in which the leading firms of the sector in Mexico are engaged.

Productivity and costs of Beller-Buncher and forest processor in stands of eucalypts in first cut

The rationalization of forest harvesting and minimization costs is a constant search by the managers involved in this process, making them decide practices which are economically viable to optimize that operation. This study aimed to evaluate technically and economically the performance of feller-buncher and the forest processor in stands of eucalypts in first cut. The technique analysis included time and movements, productivity, efficiency operational and mechanical availability. The economic analysis included the parameters operational cost, harvesting cost and energy consumption. Aiming the optimization the cost of forest harvesting, the system composed by feller-buncher and processor forest presented itself as a technically and economically viable alternative to harvesting eucalypt in first cut or stands that do not have bifurcated trees.

Economic viability of shale gas production in the Marcellus Shale; indicated by production rates, costs and current natural gas prices

The U.S. natural gas industry has changed because of the recent ability to produce natural gas from unconventional shale deposits. One of the largest and most important deposits is the Marcellus Shale. Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have allowed for the technical feasibility of production, but concerns exist regarding the economics of shale gas production. These concerns are related to limited production and economic data for shale gas wells, declines in the rates of production, falling natural gas prices, oversupply issues coupled with slow growth in U.S. natural gas demand, and rising production costs. An attempt to determine profitability was done through the economic analysis of an average shale gas well using data that is representative of natural gas production from 2009 to 2011 in the Marcellus Shale. Despite the adverse conditions facing the shale gas industry it is concluded from the results of this analysis that a shale gas well in the Marcellus Shale is profitable based on NPV, IRR and breakeven price calculations.

An empirical examination of relative profitability in the nursing facility industry between ownership form and regionality in the state of Texas

The purpose of this research is to examine the relative profitability of the firm within the nursing facility industry in Texas. An examination is made of the variables expected to affect profitability and of importance to the design and implementation of regulatory policy. To facilitate this inquiry, specific questions addressed are: (1) Do differences in ownership form affect profitability (defined as operating income before fixed costs)? (2) What impact does regional location have on profitability? (3) Do patient case-mix and access to care by Medicaid patients differ between proprietary and non-profit firms and facilities located in urban versus rural regions, and what association exists between these variables and profitability? (4) Are economies of scale present in the nursing home industry? (5) Do nursing facilities operate in a competitive output market characterized by the inability of a single firm to exhibit influence over market price?^ Prior studies have principally employed a cost function to assess efficiency differences between classifications of nursing facilities. The inherent weakness in this approach is that it only considers technical efficiency. Not both technical and price efficiency which are the two components of overall economic efficiency. One firm is more technically efficient compared to another if it is able to produce a given quantity of output at the least possible costs. Price efficiency means that scarce resources are being directed towards their most valued use. Assuming similar prices in both input and output markets, differences in overall economic efficiency between firm classes are assessed through profitability, hence a profit function.^ Using the framework of the profit function, data from 1990 Medicaid Costs Reports for Texas, and the analytic technique of Ordinary Least Squares Regression, the findings of the study indicated (1) similar profitability between nursing facilities organized as for-profit versus non-profit and located in urban versus rural regions, (2) an inverse association between both payor-mix and patient case-mix with profitability, (3) strong evidence for the presence of scale economies, and (4) existence of a competitive market structure. The paper concludes with implications regarding reimbursement methodology and construction moratorium policies in Texas. ^

Total Factor Productivity, Human Capital and Outward Orientation: Differences by Stage of Ddevelopment and Geographic Regions

Do openness and human capital accumulation promote economic growth? While intuition argues yes, the existing empirical evidence provides mixed support for such assertions. We examine Cobb-Douglas production function specifications for a 30-year panel of 83 countries representing all regions of the world and all income groups. We estimate and compare labor and capital elasticities of output per worker across each of several income and geographic groups, finding significant differences in production technology. Then we estimate the total factor productivity series for each classification. Using determinants of total factor productivity that include, among many others, human capital, openness, and distortion of domestic prices relative to world prices, we find significant differences in results between the overall sample and sub-samples of countries. In particular, a policy of outward orientation may or may not promote growth in specific country groups. even if geared to reducing price distortion and increasing openness. Human capital plays a smaller role in enhancing growth through total factor productivity.

Link between energy consumption per hour of activity and productivity of labour

The data set shows energy consumption per hour of work (in MJ/hour), and labour productivity (in USD/hour) in the PS economic sector (Energy & Mining + Industry + Construction) for the period 1970-2009 and for the following countries: Germany, Spain, USA, Canada, Italy, UK, France, Japan. The intention is to look at the relationship between energy consumption as a driver of improvements in the productivity of labour. This is of particular relevance for the discussion of reducing working time in the context of the 'degrowth' debate, as it is done in the article to which this data is a suplement.

Pollen spectra and relative pollen productivity estimates for common taxa of the northern Siberian Arctic

Pollen productivity estimates (PPE) are used to quantitatively reconstruct variations in vegetation within a specific distance of the sampled pollen archive. Here, for the first time, PPEs from Siberia are presented. The study area (Khatanga region, Krasnoyarsk territory, Russia) is located in the Siberian Sub-arctic where Larixis the sole forest-line forming tree taxon. Pollen spectra from two different sedimentary environments, namely terrestrial mosses (n=16) and lakes (n=15, median radius ~100 m) and their surrounding vegetation were investigated to extract PPEs. Our results indicate some differences in pollen spectra between moss and lake pollen. Larix and Cyperaceae for example obtained higher representation in the lacustrine than in terrestrial moss samples. This highlights that in calibration studies modern and fossil dataset should be of similar sedimentary origin. The results of the Extended R-Value model were applied to assess the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) and to calculate the PPEs for both datasets. As expected, the RSAP of the moss samples was very small (about 10 m) compared to the lacustrine samples (about 25 km). Calculation of PPEs for the six most common taxa yielded generally similar results for both datasets. Relative to Poaceae (reference taxon, PPE=1) Betula nana-type (PPEmoss: 1.8, PPElake: 1.8) and Alnusfruticosa-type (PPEmoss: 6.4, PPElake: 2.9) were overrepresented while Cyperaceae (PPEmoss: 0.5, PPElake: 0.1), Ericaceae (PPEmoss: 0.3, PPElake <0.01), Salix (PPEmoss: 0.03, PPElake <0.01) and Larix (PPEmoss <0.01, PPElake: 0.2) were under-represented in the pollen spectra compared to the vegetation in the RSAP. The estimation for the dominant tree in the region, Larixgmelinii, is the first published result for this species, but need to be considered very preliminary. The inferred sequence from over- to under-representation is mostly consistent with results from Europe; however, still the absolute values show some differences. Gathering vegetation data was limited by flowering season and low resolute satellite imagery and accessibility of the remote location of our study area. Therefore, our estimate may serve as first reference to strengthen future vegetation reconstructions in this climate-sensitive region.

Chapter 8 Location Choice of Japanese Multinationals: Country Characteristics or Region Characteristics?

In the present global era in which firms choose the location of their plants beyond national borders, location characteristics are important for attracting multinational enterprises (MNEs). The better access to countries with large market is clearly attractive for MNEs. For example, special treatments on tariffs such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) are beneficial for MNEs whose home country does not have such treatments. Not only such country characteristics but also region characteristics (i.e. province-level or city-level ones) matter, particularly in the case that location characteristics differ widely between a nation's regions. The existence of industrial concentration, that is, agglomeration, is a typical regional characteristic. It is with consideration of these country-level and region-level characteristics that MNEs decide their location abroad. A large number of academic studies have investigated in what kinds of countries MNEs locate, i.e. location choice analysis. Employing the usual new economic geography model (i.e. constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function, Dixit-Stiglitz monopolistic competition, and ice-berg trade costs), the literature derives the profit function, of which coefficients are estimated using maximum likelihood procedures. Recent studies are as follows: Head, Rise, and Swenson (1999) for Japanese MNEs in the US; Belderbos and Carree (2002) for Japanese MNEs in China; Head and Mayer (2004) for Japanese MNEs in Europe; Disdier and Mayer (2004) for French MNEs in Europe; Castellani and Zanfei (2004) for large MNEs worldwide; Mayer, Mejean, and Nefussi (2007) for French MNEs worldwide; Crozet, Mayer, and Mucchielli (2004) for MNEs in France; and Basile, Castellani, and Zanfei (2008) for MNEs in Europe. At the present time, three main topics can be found in this literature. The first introduces various location elements as independent variables. The above-mentioned new economic geography model usually yields the profit function, which is a function of market size, productive factor prices, price of intermediate goods, and trade costs. As a proxy for the price of intermediate goods, the measure of agglomeration is often used, particularly the number of manufacturing firms. Some studies employ more disaggregated numbers of manufacturing firms, such as the number of manufacturing firms with the same nationality as the firms choosing the location (e.g., Head et al., 1999; Crozet et al., 2004) or the number of firms belonging to the same firm group (e.g., Belderbos and Carree, 2002). As part of trade costs, some investment climate measures have been examined: free trade zones in the US (Head et al., 1999), special economic zones and opening coastal cities in China (Belderbos and Carree, 2002), and Objective 1 structural funds and cohesion funds in Europe (Basile et al., 2008). Second, the validity of proxy variables for location elements is further examined. Head and Mayer (2004) examine the validity of market potential on location choice. They propose the use of two measures: the Harris market potential index (Harris, 1954) and the Krugman-type index used in Redding and Venables (2004). The Harris-type index is simply the sum of distance-weighted real GDP. They employ the Krugman-type market potential index, which is directly derived from the new economic geography model, as it takes into account the extent of competition (i.e. price index) and is constructed using estimators of importing country dummy variables in the well-known gravity equation, as in Redding and Venables (2004). They find that "theory does not pay", in the sense that the Harris market potential outperforms Krugman's market potential in both the magnitude of its coefficient and the fit of the model to be estimated. The third topic explores the substitution of location by examining inclusive values in the nested-logit model. For example, using firm-level data on French investments both in France and abroad over the 1992-2002 period, Mayer et al. (2007) investigate the determinants of location choice and assess empirically whether the domestic economy has been losing attractiveness over the recent period or not. The estimated coefficient for inclusive value is strongly significant and near unity, indicating that the national economy is not different from the rest of the world in terms of substitution patterns. Similarly, Disdier and Mayer (2004) investigate whether French MNEs consider Western and Eastern Europe as two distinct groups of potential host countries by examining the coefficient for the inclusive value in nested-logit estimation. They confirm the relevance of an East-West structure in the country location decision and furthermore show that this relevance decreases over time. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the location choice of Japanese MNEs in Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam, and is closely related to the third topic mentioned above. By examining region-level location choice with the nested-logit model, I investigate the relative importance of not only country characteristics but also region characteristics. Such investigation is invaluable particularly in the case of location choice in those five countries: industrialization remains immature in those countries which have not yet succeeded in attracting enough MNEs, and as a result, it is expected that there are not yet crucial regional variations for MNEs within such a nation, meaning the country characteristics are still relatively important to attract MNEs. To illustrate, in the case of Cambodia and Laos, one of the crucial elements for Japanese MNEs would be that LDC preferential tariff schemes are available for exports from Cambodia and Laos. On the other hand, in the case of Thailand and Vietnam, which have accepted a relatively large number of MNEs and thus raised the extent of regional inequality, regional characteristics such as the existence of agglomeration would become important elements in location choice. Our sample countries seem, therefore, to offer rich variations for analyzing the relative importance between country characteristics and region characteristics. Our empirical strategy has a further advantage. As in the third topic in the location choice literature, the use of the nested-logit model enables us to examine substitution patterns between country-based and region-based location decisions by MNEs in the concerned countries. For example, it is possible to investigate empirically whether Japanese multinational firms consider Thailand/Vietnam and the other three countries as two distinct groups of potential host countries, by examining the inclusive value parameters in nested-logit estimation. In particular, our sample countries all experienced dramatic changes in, for example, economic growth or trade costs reduction during the sample period. Thus, we will find the dramatic dynamics of such substitution patterns. Our rigorous analysis of the relative importance between country characteristics and region characteristics is invaluable from the viewpoint of policy implications. First, while the former characteristics should be improved mainly by central government in each country, there is sometimes room for the improvement of the latter characteristics by even local governments or smaller institutions such as private agencies. Consequently, it becomes important for these smaller institutions to know just how crucial the improvement of region characteristics is for attracting foreign companies. Second, as economies grow, country characteristics become similar among countries. For example, the LCD preferential tariff schemes are available only when a country is less developed. Therefore, it is important particularly for the least developed countries to know what kinds of regional characteristics become important following economic growth; in other words, after their country characteristics become similar to those of the more developed countries. I also incorporate one important characteristic of MNEs, namely, productivity. The well-known Helpman-Melitz-Yeaple model indicates that only firms with higher productivity can afford overseas entry (Helpman et al., 2004). Beyond this argument, there may be some differences in MNEs' productivity among our sample countries and regions. Such differences are important from the viewpoint of "spillover effects" from MNEs, which are one of the most important results for host countries in accepting their entry. The spillover effects are that the presence of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) aises domestic firms' productivity through various channels such as imitation. Such positive effects might be larger in areas with more productive MNEs. Therefore, it becomes important for host countries to know how much productive firms are likely to invest in them. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 takes a brief look at the worldwide distribution of Japanese overseas affiliates. Section 3 provides an empirical model to examine their location choice, and lastly, we discuss future works to estimate our model.

Neutrality in the choice of number of firms or level of fixed costs in calibrating an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module for applied general equilibrium models

This paper shows how an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module based on Dixon and Rimmer (2012) can be calibrated, and clarifies the choice of initial levels for two kinds of number of firms, or parameter values for two kinds of fixed costs, that enter a Melitz-type specification can be set freely to any preferred value, just as the cases we derive quantities from given value data assuming some of the initial prices to be unity. In consequence, only one kind of additional information, which is on the shape parameter related to productivity, just is required in order to incorporate Melitz-type monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms into a standard applied general equilibrium model. To be a Krugman-type, nothing is needed. This enables model builders in applied economics to fully enjoy the featured properties of the theoretical models invented by Krugman (1980) and Melitz (2003) in practical policy simulations at low cost.

Latin American Agricultural Trade: The Role of the WTO in Sustainable Virtual Water Flows, European Association of Agricultural Economists

International agricultural trade has been growing significantly during the last decade. Many countries rely on imports to ensure adequate food supplies to the people. A few are becoming food baskets of the world. This process raises issues about the food security in depending countries and potentially unsustainable land and water use in exporting countries. In this paper, we analyse the impacts of amplified farm trade on natural resources, especially water. Farm exports and imports of five Latin America countries (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Peru and Chile) are examined carefully. A preliminary analysis indicates that virtual water imports can save valuable water resources in water-short countries, such as Mexico and Chile. Major exporting countries, including Brazil and Argentina, have become big exporters due to abundant natural resource endowments. The opportunity costs of agricultural production in those countries are identified as being low, because of the predominant green water use. It is concluded that virtual water trade can be a powerful tool to alleviate water stress in semi-arid countries. However, for exporting nations a sustainable water use can only be guaranteed if environmental production costs are fully reflected in the commodity prices. There is no basis for erecting environmental trade tariffs on exporters though. Setting up legal foundations for them in full compliance with WTOs processes would be a daunting task.

CSR Policies: Effects on Labour Productivity in Spanish Micro and Small Manufacturing Companies

This paper analyses empirical evidence of efforts to enable Spanish micro and small manufacturing companies to boost their labour productivity rates through the development of the main pillars of their corporate social responsibility (CSR) policies. This study aims to develop new approaches and sensibilities towards work from an ethical, values (virtues) and CSR perspective, showing how internal dimensions of CSR, such those related to relationships with employees and responsibility in processes and product quality, can improve labour performance and labour efficiency, thereby contributing to a better society. The results of a sample of 929 small businesses indicate that the social responsibility policies that most contributed to a short-term increase in labour productivity are those related to internal aspects of the company, in particular its involvement in the quality of processes and products, promotion of innovation and employee care. However, the impact on labour productivity of CSR policies related to external factors, such as relationship with stakeholders and environmental concern, could not be empirically proven in this paper.

Respuesta fisiológica y agronómica del olivar en seto (cv. Arbequina) a la orientación de filas y al ancho de calle: relación entre la producción y calidad del aceite y la radiación interceptada

En las últimas dos décadas, los productores han plantado olivares en seto para lograr la mecanización de la poda y en especial de la cosecha, reducir los costes de mano de obra y permitir intervenciones de manejo rápidas y oportunas. Los olivares se desarrollaron en ausencia del conocimiento científico, sobre el diseño óptimo de la estructura de la copa, necesario para incrementar la producción y calidad del aceite. En contraste, con los árboles muy espaciados y distribuidos uniformemente de las plantaciones tradicionales, en el olivar en seto hay una marcada variabilidad espacial y temporal de la radiación disponible en función del diseño de la plantación. Así, conocer la respuesta fisiológica y productiva del olivo a la radiación resulta fundamental en el olivar en seto. La orientación de las filas y el ancho de calle son aspectos que se deciden en el diseño de las plantaciones en seto. Ambos aspectos modifican la radiación interceptada por la canopia y, por lo tanto, pueden incidir en la productividad y calidad del aceite. Una vez realizada la plantación no pueden ser modificados, y así las ventajas o desventajas permanecerán fijas durante toda la vida productiva del olivar. A pesar de esto, el impacto de la orientación de las filas y el ancho de calle han recibido poca atención en olivos y en la mayoría de los frutales conducidos en seto. Por todo ello, los objetivos principales de esta tesis fueron, (i) evaluar el efecto de la orientación del seto y del ancho de calle, sobre la productividad y calidad del aceite, (ii) evaluar un modelo que estime la radiación dentro de la canopia. Este modelo permitirá cuantificar las relaciones entre la radiación y los componentes del rendimiento y calidad del aceite de olivares en setos con un amplio rango de estructuras y (iii) conocer la variabilidad en las características de las hojas (morfológicas y fisiológicas) y de los tejidos del fruto (tamaño y composición) en diferentes posiciones de la copa de los setos. Para ello, se dispuso de 3 ensayos de olivar en seto (cv. Arbequina) implantados en 2008 en el municipio de La Puebla de Montalbán, Toledo. La primera cosecha fue en 2010 y a partir del 2012 los setos formaron una copa continua. A partir de ese año, los setos se mantuvieron mediante poda, con similar ancho (~1 m) y altura (~2,5 m), acordes a las dimensiones de la cosechadora vendimiadora. En los años 2012 y 2013 se estudió en profundidad la respuesta de las plantas de estos ensayos. En el ensayo 1, los setos fueron plantados con cuatro orientaciones de filas: N–S, NE–SO, NO–SE y E–O y el mismo ancho de calle (4 m). En los otros dos ensayos, los setos fueron plantados con tres anchos de calle (5,0, 4,0 y 2,5 m), y con filas orientadas N–S (ensayo 2) y E–O (ensayo 3). La respuesta de la orientación de las filas se evaluó a nivel de seto y de estratos del seto (alturas y caras), a través de mediciones del crecimiento de brotes, componentes reproductivos, características y temperatura del fruto, estado hídrico del suelo y de las plantas, fotosíntesis neta de las hojas y contenido de ácidos grasos. Los setos orientados NE–SO (2,7 t/ha) lograron la mayor producción de aceite, que fue significativamente más alta que la de los setos E–O (2,3 t/ha). La producción de aceite de los setos E–O no se diferenció estadísticamente de los setos N–S (2,5 t/ha). Las diferencias productivas entre orientaciones fueron explicadas por el número de frutos en cosecha, a su vez la variación en el número de frutos estuvo asociada al efecto de la orientación de las filas sobre el número de yemas desarrolladas y el porcentaje de inflorescencias fértiles. Las hojas en las caras iluminadas de los setos NE–SO y N–S presentaron mayor tasa fotosintética a la mañana (~10.0 h) que los setos E–O, en el año 2012, pero no en 2013. La orientación de las filas no tuvo un efecto significativo en el contenido de ácidos grasos de los aceites extraídos, esto ocurrió a pesar de variaciones en la temperatura interna de los frutos (3 °C) y de la radiación (40%) entre las distintas caras de los setos. La orientación del seto afectó significativamente al contenido relativo de agua del suelo, donde setos E–O presentaron valores más altos (12%) que setos N–S durante el verano y otoño. Sin embargo, el potencial hídrico de tallo fue similar entre orientaciones. En los ensayos 2 y 3, se evaluó el efecto que produce, a nivel de seto y de estratos (caras y alturas), reducir el ancho de calle de 5,0 a 4,0 y 2,5 m, en un seto orientado N–S y otro E–O, respectivamente. La relación entre altura/ancho de calle libre aumentó 0,6 a 0,8 y 1,6, al reducir 5,0, 4,0 y 2,5 m el ancho de calle, mientras la longitud de seto y el volumen de copa por hectárea incrementó 100% al reducir de 5,0 a 2,5 m, el ancho de calle. En los setos orientados N–S, la producción de aceite por ha acumulada en 4 campañas, incrementó significativamente un 52 %, al reducir de 5,0 a 2,5 m el ancho de calle. Los setos N–S con calle más estrecha (2,5 m) tuvieron un 19% menos frutos que los setos con calle más ancha (5,0 m) y a su vez el 60% de los mismos se localizaron los estratos altos de la canopia de los setos con calles estrecha en comparación al 40% en setos con calle de 5,0 m. En los estratos más bajos de los setos con calles de 2,5m hubo menor crecimiento de los brotes y los frutos tuvieron menor peso seco, contenido de aceite y madurez, que los frutos en los estratos bajos de los setos a 5,0 m. Los componentes del rendimiento y características de los frutos (agua y madurez) fueron similares entre la caras E y O, independientemente del ancho de calle. En los setos orientados E–O, la producción de aceite por ha acumulada en 4 campañas, no respondió significativamente al ancho de calle, debido a una disminución significativa en el número de frutos y producción de aceite por m de seto, al reducir de 5,0 a 2,5 m, el ancho de calle. En los setos orientados E–O, con calles de 5,0 m, los frutos presentaron similar peso seco, contenido de aceite y agua, en las caras S y N, sin embargo, cuando la calle fue reducida a 2,5, los frutos de la cara S fueron más pesado y maduros que en la cara N. Independientemente del ancho de calle y de la orientación del seto, el aceite presentó mayor contenido de ácidos palmitoleico, palmítico, esteárico y linoleico en los frutos del estrato más alto de la canopia disminuyendo hacia la base. En contraste, el contenido de ácido oleico aumentó desde el estrato más alto hacia la base de los setos. Las diferencias en el contenido de ácidos grasos entre la parte alta y baja de los setos, incrementó al reducir el ancho de calle en los setos N–S, pero no en los E-O. En conclusión, en olivares en seto, reducir el ancho de calle permite incrementar la producción de aceite, en setos orientados N–S, pero no en E–O. Un modelo que estima la cantidad y distribución de la radiación en toda la copa del seto, fue utilizado para estimar la radiación interceptada en distintos estratos del seto. El modelo requiere un valor del coeficiente de extinción (k) para estimar la transmisión de radiación a través de la copa, el cual fue obtenido experimentalmente (k=1,2). Utilizando los datos del ensayo 1, un único modelo lineal relacionó el peso seco y el rendimiento graso de setos con la radiación interceptada por los distintos estratos de setos con cuatro orientaciones de filas. La densidad de frutos fue también relacionada con la radiación, pero más débilmente. En los setos orientados N–S, plantados con tres anchos de calles, (ensayo 2) el contenido de ácidos palmitoleico y linoleico del aceite incrementó linealmente con el incremento de la radiación interceptada, mientras el contenido ácido oleico disminuyó linealmente con el incremento de la radiación. El contenido de ácidos grasos del aceite no estuvo relacionado con la radiación interceptada en setos orientados E–O (Ensayo 3). En los setos N–S y E–O, plantados con anchos de calle de 2,5 m, se estudiaron las interacciones entre la radiación y características de las hojas, número de fruto, tamaño y composición de los frutos a nivel de órgano, tejido y células. Independientemente de la orientación del seto, el área y el contenido de clorofila de las hojas incrementaron significativamente en los estratos más bajos de los setos. Mientras, las hojas de los estratos medios del seto presentaron mayor capacidad fotosintética que en los estratos bajos y alto de los setos. Los estratos del seto que interceptaron más radiación produjeron frutos con mayor tamaño y contenido de aceite en el mesocarpo, sin efectos sobre el tamaño y composición del endocarpo. A nivel celular, los frutos expuestos a mayor nivel de radiación desarrollaron en el mesocarpo células de mayor tamaño en comparación a frutos menos expuestos, mientras el número de células no fue afectado. Adicionalmente, el número y tamaño de las células estuvo relacionado con la composición del mesocarpo en términos de aceite, agua y peso seco menos aceite. Esta tesis, contribuye, desde una perspectiva integral del cultivo del olivo, a cuantificar el impacto de la orientación y ancho de calle sobre la producción y calidad del aceite en olivares conducidos en setos. El análisis y discusión de la relación entre la radiación y los componentes del rendimiento y calidad del aceite, puede ayudar a diseñar plantaciones en seto con dimensiones óptimas para la intercepción de la radiación. ABSTRACT In the last two decades, olive hedgerow system has been established by commercial growers to allow continuous mechanized pruning and especially harvest, reduce costs of manual labour and allow more rapid and timely management interventions. The adoption of hedgerow was done in the absence of adequate scientific knowledge of the impact of this orchard structure and associated mechanization on tree response, yield and quality, after centuries in low-density orchards and open-formed trees. The row orientation and width alley are fundamental aspects in the hedgerow design and have been scarcely studied in olive. Both aspects modify the radiation intercepted by the canopy, and consequently the productivity and oil quality, and once defined in orchard planting cannot be changed, so advantages and disadvantages remain fixed for the lifespan of the orchard. The main objectives of this thesis were to (i) evaluate the impact of the row orientation and width alley on productivity and oil quality by the measurements of profile of the determining processes of shoot growth, fruit temperature, yield components and fruit and oil characteristics on opposite sides of olive hedgerows. Additionally, the effect of row orientation on the plant water status was also evaluated; (ii) evaluate a mathematical model for estimating the radiation within the canopy and quantify the relationships between the radiation estimated and yield components and oil quality in olive hedgerows under wide range of structures and; (iii) determine the variability in the characteristics of the leaves (morphological and physiological) and fruit tissues (size and composition) in different positions of the hedgerows canopy. Three plots of olive hedgerows (cv. Arbequina) planted in 2008 in La Puebla de Montalbán, Toledo were evaluated during the 2012 and 2013 seasons. The hedgerows were maintained by lateral pruning and topping with the same width (1 m) and height (2.5 m) compatible with the intended harvester. In a plot (experiment 1), the hedgerows were planted with the same width alley (4 m) and four row orientations: N–S, NE–SW, NW–SE and E–W. Other two plots (Experiments 2 and 3) separated by approximately 100 m were planted with N–S and E–O oriented rows and three alley widths in each orientation: 5.0, 4.0 and 2.5 m. In the exp. 1, maximum fruit yield were achieved by NE–SW and NW–SW (15.7 t/ha). Of these, NE–SW achieved the highest oil yield (2.7 t/ha). There were no differences in fruit or oil yield between N–S (2.5 t oil/ha) and E–W (2.3 t oil/ha) orientations. Fruit number was the most important component to explain these differences, by previous influence on number of bud developed and percentage of fertile inflorescences. Fruit maturity and oil quality on both sides of the hedgerows were not affected by row orientation. This occurred despite significant variations in the internal fruit temperature, which was closely related to the irradiance received by the canopy and the time of day. Additionally, row orientation significantly affected the relative water content of the soil, where E–W oriented hedgerows showed consistently higher values than N–S during summer-autumn season. The stem water potential at midday, however, was similar between orientations, revealing possible lower water consumption of E–W than N–S oriented hedgerows. In the exp. 2, regardless of row orientation, reduction of row spacing from 5.0 to 4.0 and 2.5 m increases the ratio of canopy depth to free alley width (Al/An) from 0.6 to 0.8 and 1.6, respectively, and ads 25 and 100 % more hedgerow length per ha. In N–S oriented hedgerows, oil production per ha increased significantly by 14 and 52 % in 4.0 m and 2.5 m relative to 5.0 m row spacing, the effect being proportionally less than the increase in hedgerow length per ha. Hedgerows spaced 2.5 m with Al/An = 1.6 produced relatively fewer fruits per unit length than did wider spacings and were preferentially distributed in upper layers. Fruits located at the bottom of the canopy were smaller, with lower oil content and were less mature. In E–W oriented hedgerows, oil production per ha did not respond significantly to row spacing, despite the doubling of row length from the 5.0 to the 2.5 m row spacing. The explanation was found in fewer fruit per unit length of hedgerow and smaller oil content at 2.5 m than 5.0 m row spacing, averaged over the experimental period. In E–W hedgerows spaced at 5.0 m with Al/An = 0.6, the vertical profiles of fruit characteristics (mass, oil and water contents, and maturity) were similar between opposing sides, but at 4.0 m (Al/An= 0.8) and 2.5 m (Al/An=1.6) spacings, fruits on the S side were heavier and more mature than on N side. The oil extracted from fruits harvested at different heights of N–S and E–W oriented hedgerows showed higher palmitoleic, palmitic, stearic and linoleic contents at the canopy top decreasing toward base. The oleic content was reverse, increased from top to base. In N–S hedgerows, vertical gradients increased by reducing the alley width, but not in the E–W oriented hedgerows. The simulation of internal canopy irradiance was related in a single relationship (R2 = 0.63) to the vertical profiles of fruit weight and oil content of olive hedgerows with wide range of structures. The density of fruits was also associated with the irradiance but more weakly (R2 = 0.27), and revealed a more complex response involving changes in the vegetative structure by canopy management (topping) and the effect of radiation on the previous sequence that defines the number of fruits. The vertical profiles of oil quality traits were closely associated to canopy irradiance, but only when the N–S oriented hedgerows were considered. The contents of palmitoleic and linoleic acid in the oil increased linearly when intercepted irradiance increased from 9 to 19 mol PAR/m2. In contrast, oleic content decreased linearly in this irradiance range. Additionally, we advanced knowledge regarding the interactions among irradiance and leaf, fruit number, size and composition at organ-, tissue- and cellular- levels. The irradiance received at different positions in the canopy strongly affected the leaf area and chlorophyll content, and mesocarp size and composition (water and oil), without effects on endocarp size and composition. At the cellular level, light-exposed fruit developed larger mesocarp cells than shaded fruits, but cell number was not affected. Our results indicate that cell number and size are related to mesocarp composition in term of oil, water, and dry weight menus oil, although the specific manner in which they interact remains to be determined. This research contributes from an integral perspective of olive growing to quantify the impact of row orientation and width alley on productivity and oil quality in hedgerows systems. The analysis and discussion of the relationships between radiation and yield components and oil quality can help understand the impact of design olive hedgerows in general and in a wide range of environmental conditions.

Evaluación de las Consecuencias de la Nueva Regulación de la OMI sobre Combustibles Marinos

El 10 de octubre de 2008 la Organización Marítima Internacional (OMI) firmó una modificación al Anexo VI del convenio MARPOL 73/78, por la que estableció una reducción progresiva de las emisiones de óxidos de azufre (SOx) procedentes de los buques, una reducción adicional de las emisiones de óxidos de nitrógeno (NOx), así como límites en las emisiones de dióxido de Carbono (CO2) procedentes de los motores marinos y causantes de problemas medioambientales como la lluvia ácida y efecto invernadero. Centrándonos en los límites sobre las emisiones de azufre, a partir del 1 de enero de 2015 esta normativa obliga a todos los buques que naveguen por zonas controladas, llamadas Emission Control Area (ECA), a consumir combustibles con un contenido de azufre menor al 0,1%. A partir del 1 de enero del año 2020, o bien del año 2025, si la OMI decide retrasar su inicio, los buques deberán consumir combustibles con un contenido de azufre menor al 0,5%. De igual forma que antes, el contenido deberá ser rebajado al 0,1%S, si navegan por el interior de zonas ECA. Por su parte, la Unión Europea ha ido más allá que la OMI, adelantando al año 2020 la aplicación de los límites más estrictos de la ley MARPOL sobre las aguas de su zona económica exclusiva. Para ello, el 21 de noviembre de 2013 firmó la Directiva 2012 / 33 / EU como adenda a la Directiva de 1999. Tengamos presente que la finalidad de estas nuevas leyes es la mejora de la salud pública y el medioambiente, produciendo beneficios sociales, en forma de reducción de enfermedades, sobre todo de tipo respiratorio, a la vez que se reduce la lluvia ácida y sus nefastas consecuencias. La primera pregunta que surge es ¿cuál es el combustible actual de los buques y cuál será el que tengan que consumir para cumplir con esta Regulación? Pues bien, los grandes buques de navegación internacional consumen hoy en día fuel oil con un nivel de azufre de 3,5%. ¿Existen fueles con un nivel de azufre de 0,5%S? Como hemos concluido en el capítulo 4, para las empresas petroleras, la producción de fuel oil como combustible marino es tratada como un subproducto en su cesta de productos refinados por cada barril de Brent, ya que la demanda de fuel respecto a otros productos está bajando y además, el margen de beneficio que obtienen por la venta de otros productos petrolíferos es mayor que con el fuel. Así, podemos decir que las empresas petroleras no están interesadas en invertir en sus refinerías para producir estos fueles con menor contenido de azufre. Es más, en el caso de que alguna compañía decidiese invertir en producir un fuel de 0,5%S, su precio debería ser muy similar al del gasóleo para poder recuperar las inversiones empleadas. Por lo tanto, el único combustible que actualmente cumple con los nuevos niveles impuestos por la OMI es el gasóleo, con un precio que durante el año 2014 estuvo a una media de 307 USD/ton más alto que el actual fuel oil. Este mayor precio de compra de combustible impactará directamente sobre el coste del trasporte marítimo. La entrada en vigor de las anteriores normativas está suponiendo un reto para todo el sector marítimo. Ante esta realidad, se plantean diferentes alternativas con diferentes implicaciones técnicas, operativas y financieras. En la actualidad, son tres las alternativas con mayor aceptación en el sector. La primera alternativa consiste en “no hacer nada” y simplemente cambiar el tipo de combustible de los grandes buques de fuel oil a gasóleo. Las segunda alternativa es la instalación de un equipo scrubber, que permitiría continuar con el consumo de fuel oil, limpiando sus gases de combustión antes de salir a la atmósfera. Y, por último, la tercera alternativa consiste en el uso de Gas Natural Licuado (GNL) como combustible, con un precio inferior al del gasóleo. Sin embargo, aún existen importantes incertidumbres sobre la evolución futura de precios, operación y mantenimiento de las nuevas tecnologías, inversiones necesarias, disponibilidad de infraestructura portuaria e incluso el desarrollo futuro de la propia normativa internacional. Estas dudas hacen que ninguna de estas tres alternativas sea unánime en el sector. En esta tesis, tras exponer en el capítulo 3 la regulación aplicable al sector, hemos investigado sus consecuencias. Para ello, hemos examinado en el capítulo 4 si existen en la actualidad combustibles marinos que cumplan con los nuevos límites de azufre o en su defecto, cuál sería el precio de los nuevos combustibles. Partimos en el capítulo 5 de la hipótesis de que todos los buques cambian su consumo de fuel oil a gasóleo para cumplir con dicha normativa, calculamos el incremento de demanda de gasóleo que se produciría y analizamos las consecuencias que este hecho tendría sobre la producción de gasóleos en el Mediterráneo. Adicionalmente, calculamos el impacto económico que dicho incremento de coste producirá sobre sector exterior de España. Para ello, empleamos como base de datos el sistema de control de tráfico marítimo Authomatic Identification System (AIS) para luego analizar los datos de todos los buques que han hecho escala en algún puerto español, para así calcular el extra coste anual por el consumo de gasóleo que sufrirá el transporte marítimo para mover todas las importaciones y exportaciones de España. Por último, en el capítulo 6, examinamos y comparamos las otras dos alternativas al consumo de gasóleo -scrubbers y propulsión con GNL como combustible- y, finalmente, analizamos en el capítulo 7, la viabilidad de las inversiones en estas dos tecnologías para cumplir con la regulación. En el capítulo 5 explicamos los numerosos métodos que existen para calcular la demanda de combustible de un buque. La metodología seguida para su cálculo será del tipo bottom-up, que está basada en la agregación de la actividad y las características de cada tipo de buque. El resultado está basado en la potencia instalada de cada buque, porcentaje de carga del motor y su consumo específico. Para ello, analizamos el número de buques que navegan por el Mediterráneo a lo largo de un año mediante el sistema AIS, realizando “fotos” del tráfico marítimo en el Mediterráneo y reportando todos los buques en navegación en días aleatorios a lo largo de todo el año 2014. Por último, y con los datos anteriores, calculamos la demanda potencial de gasóleo en el Mediterráneo. Si no se hace nada y los buques comienzan a consumir gasóleo como combustible principal, en vez del actual fuel oil para cumplir con la regulación, la demanda de gasoil en el Mediterráneo aumentará en 12,12 MTA (Millones de Toneladas Anuales) a partir del año 2020. Esto supone alrededor de 3.720 millones de dólares anuales por el incremento del gasto de combustible tomando como referencia el precio medio de los combustibles marinos durante el año 2014. El anterior incremento de demanda en el Mediterráneo supondría el 43% del total de la demanda de gasóleos en España en el año 2013, incluyendo gasóleos de automoción, biodiesel y gasóleos marinos y el 3,2% del consumo europeo de destilados medios durante el año 2014. ¿Podrá la oferta del mercado europeo asumir este incremento de demanda de gasóleos? Europa siempre ha sido excedentaria en gasolina y deficitaria en destilados medios. En el año 2009, Europa tuvo que importar 4,8 MTA de Norte América y 22,1 MTA de Asia. Por lo que, este aumento de demanda sobre la ya limitada capacidad de refino de destilados medios en Europa incrementará las importaciones y producirá también aumentos en los precios, sobre todo del mercado del gasóleo. El sector sobre el que más impactará el incremento de demanda de gasóleo será el de los cruceros que navegan por el Mediterráneo, pues consumirán un 30,4% de la demanda de combustible de toda flota mundial de cruceros, lo que supone un aumento en su gasto de combustible de 386 millones de USD anuales. En el caso de los RoRos, consumirían un 23,6% de la demanda de la flota mundial de este tipo de buque, con un aumento anual de 171 millones de USD sobre su gasto de combustible anterior. El mayor incremento de coste lo sufrirán los portacontenedores, con 1.168 millones de USD anuales sobre su gasto actual. Sin embargo, su consumo en el Mediterráneo representa sólo el 5,3% del consumo mundial de combustible de este tipo de buques. Estos números plantean la incertidumbre de si semejante aumento de gasto en buques RoRo hará que el transporte marítimo de corta distancia en general pierda competitividad sobre otros medios de transporte alternativos en determinadas rutas. De manera que, parte del volumen de mercancías que actualmente transportan los buques se podría trasladar a la carretera, con los inconvenientes medioambientales y operativos, que esto produciría. En el caso particular de España, el extra coste por el consumo de gasóleo de todos los buques con escala en algún puerto español en el año 2013 se cifra en 1.717 millones de EUR anuales, según demostramos en la última parte del capítulo 5. Para realizar este cálculo hemos analizado con el sistema AIS a todos los buques que han tenido escala en algún puerto español y los hemos clasificado por distancia navegada, tipo de buque y potencia. Este encarecimiento del transporte marítimo será trasladado al sector exterior español, lo cual producirá un aumento del coste de las importaciones y exportaciones por mar en un país muy expuesto, pues el 75,61% del total de las importaciones y el 53,64% del total de las exportaciones se han hecho por vía marítima. Las tres industrias que se verán más afectadas son aquellas cuyo valor de mercancía es inferior respecto a su coste de transporte. Para ellas los aumentos del coste sobre el total del valor de cada mercancía serán de un 2,94% para la madera y corcho, un 2,14% para los productos minerales y un 1,93% para las manufacturas de piedra, cemento, cerámica y vidrio. Las mercancías que entren o salgan por los dos archipiélagos españoles de Canarias y Baleares serán las que se verán más impactadas por el extra coste del transporte marítimo, ya que son los puertos más alejados de otros puertos principales y, por tanto, con más distancia de navegación. Sin embargo, esta no es la única alternativa al cumplimiento de la nueva regulación. De la lectura del capítulo 6 concluimos que las tecnologías de equipos scrubbers y de propulsión con GNL permitirán al buque consumir combustibles más baratos al gasoil, a cambio de una inversión en estas tecnologías. ¿Serán los ahorros producidos por estas nuevas tecnologías suficientes para justificar su inversión? Para contestar la anterior pregunta, en el capítulo 7 hemos comparado las tres alternativas y hemos calculado tanto los costes de inversión como los gastos operativos correspondientes a equipos scrubbers o propulsión con GNL para una selección de 53 categorías de buques. La inversión en equipos scrubbers es más conveniente para buques grandes, con navegación no regular. Sin embargo, para buques de tamaño menor y navegación regular por puertos con buena infraestructura de suministro de GNL, la inversión en una propulsión con GNL como combustible será la más adecuada. En el caso de un tiempo de navegación del 100% dentro de zonas ECA y bajo el escenario de precios visto durante el año 2014, los proyectos con mejor plazo de recuperación de la inversión en equipos scrubbers son para los cruceros de gran tamaño (100.000 tons. GT), para los que se recupera la inversión en 0,62 años, los grandes portacontenedores de más de 8.000 TEUs con 0,64 años de recuperación y entre 5.000-8.000 TEUs con 0,71 años de recuperación y, por último, los grandes petroleros de más de 200.000 tons. de peso muerto donde tenemos un plazo de recuperación de 0,82 años. La inversión en scrubbers para buques pequeños, por el contrario, tarda más tiempo en recuperarse llegando a más de 5 años en petroleros y quimiqueros de menos de 5.000 toneladas de peso muerto. En el caso de una posible inversión en propulsión con GNL, las categorías de buques donde la inversión en GNL es más favorable y recuperable en menor tiempo son las más pequeñas, como ferris, cruceros o RoRos. Tomamos ahora el caso particular de un buque de productos limpios de 38.500 toneladas de peso muerto ya construido y nos planteamos la viabilidad de la inversión en la instalación de un equipo scrubber o bien, el cambio a una propulsión por GNL a partir del año 2015. Se comprueba que las dos variables que más impactan sobre la conveniencia de la inversión son el tiempo de navegación del buque dentro de zonas de emisiones controladas (ECA) y el escenario futuro de precios del MGO, HSFO y GNL. Para realizar este análisis hemos estudiado cada inversión, calculando una batería de condiciones de mérito como el payback, TIR, VAN y la evolución de la tesorería del inversor. Posteriormente, hemos calculado las condiciones de contorno mínimas de este buque en concreto para asegurar una inversión no sólo aceptable, sino además conveniente para el naviero inversor. En el entorno de precios del 2014 -con un diferencial entre fuel y gasóleo de 264,35 USD/ton- si el buque pasa más de un 56% de su tiempo de navegación en zonas ECA, conseguirá una rentabilidad de la inversión para inversores (TIR) en el equipo scrubber que será igual o superior al 9,6%, valor tomado como coste de oportunidad. Para el caso de inversión en GNL, en el entorno de precios del año 2014 -con un diferencial entre GNL y gasóleo de 353,8 USD/ton FOE- si el buque pasa más de un 64,8 % de su tiempo de navegación en zonas ECA, conseguirá una rentabilidad de la inversión para inversores (TIR) que será igual o superior al 9,6%, valor del coste de oportunidad. Para un tiempo en zona ECA estimado de un 60%, la rentabilidad de la inversión (TIR) en scrubbers para los inversores será igual o superior al 9,6%, el coste de oportunidad requerido por el inversor, para valores del diferencial de precio entre los dos combustibles alternativos, gasóleo (MGO) y fuel oil (HSFO) a partir de 244,73 USD/ton. En el caso de una inversión en propulsión GNL se requeriría un diferencial de precio entre MGO y GNL de 382,3 USD/ton FOE o superior. Así, para un buque de productos limpios de 38.500 DWT, la inversión en una reconversión para instalar un equipo scrubber es más conveniente que la de GNL, pues alcanza rentabilidades de la inversión (TIR) para inversores del 12,77%, frente a un 6,81% en el caso de invertir en GNL. Para ambos cálculos se ha tomado un buque que navegue un 60% de su tiempo por zona ECA y un escenario de precios medios del año 2014 para el combustible. Po otro lado, las inversiones en estas tecnologías a partir del año 2025 para nuevas construcciones son en ambos casos convenientes. El naviero deberá prestar especial atención aquí a las características propias de su buque y tipo de navegación, así como a la infraestructura de suministros y vertidos en los puertos donde vaya a operar usualmente. Si bien, no se ha estudiado en profundidad en esta tesis, no olvidemos que el sector marítimo debe cumplir además con las otras dos limitaciones que la regulación de la OMI establece sobre las emisiones de óxidos de Nitrógeno (NOx) y Carbono (CO2) y que sin duda, requerirán adicionales inversiones en diversos equipos. De manera que, si bien las consecuencias del consumo de gasóleo como alternativa al cumplimiento de la Regulación MARPOL son ciertamente preocupantes, existen alternativas al uso del gasóleo, con un aumento sobre el coste del transporte marítimo menor y manteniendo los beneficios sociales que pretende dicha ley. En efecto, como hemos demostrado, las opciones que se plantean como más rentables desde el punto de vista financiero son el consumo de GNL en los buques pequeños y de línea regular (cruceros, ferries, RoRos), y la instalación de scrubbers para el resto de buques de grandes dimensiones. Pero, por desgracia, estas inversiones no llegan a hacerse realidad por el elevado grado de incertidumbre asociado a estos dos mercados, que aumenta el riesgo empresarial, tanto de navieros como de suministradores de estas nuevas tecnologías. Observamos así una gran reticencia del sector privado a decidirse por estas dos alternativas. Este elevado nivel de riesgo sólo puede reducirse fomentando el esfuerzo conjunto del sector público y privado para superar estas barreras de entrada del mercado de scrubbers y GNL, que lograrían reducir las externalidades medioambientales de las emisiones sin restar competitividad al transporte marítimo. Creemos así, que los mismos organismos que aprobaron dicha ley deben ayudar al sector naviero a afrontar las inversiones en dichas tecnologías, así como a impulsar su investigación y promover la creación de una infraestructura portuaria adaptada a suministros de GNL y a descargas de vertidos procedentes de los equipos scrubber. Deberían además, prestar especial atención sobre las ayudas al sector de corta distancia para evitar que pierda competitividad frente a otros medios de transporte por el cumplimiento de esta normativa. Actualmente existen varios programas europeos de incentivos, como TEN-T o Marco Polo, pero no los consideramos suficientes. Por otro lado, la Organización Marítima Internacional debe confirmar cuanto antes si retrasa o no al 2025 la nueva bajada del nivel de azufre en combustibles. De esta manera, se eliminaría la gran incertidumbre temporal que actualmente tienen tanto navieros, como empresas petroleras y puertos para iniciar sus futuras inversiones y poder estudiar la viabilidad de cada alternativa de forma individual. ABSTRACT On 10 October 2008 the International Maritime Organization (IMO) signed an amendment to Annex VI of the MARPOL 73/78 convention establishing a gradual reduction in sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships, and an additional reduction in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from marine engines which cause environmental problems such as acid rain and the greenhouse effect. According to this regulation, from 1 January 2015, ships travelling in an Emission Control Area (ECA) must use fuels with a sulphur content of less than 0.1%. From 1 January 2020, or alternatively from 2025 if the IMO should decide to delay its introduction, all ships must use fuels with a sulphur content of less than 0.5%. As before, this content will be 0.1%S for voyages within ECAs. Meanwhile, the European Union has gone further than the IMO, and will apply the strictest limits of the MARPOL directives in the waters of its exclusive economic zone from 2020. To this end, Directive 2012/33/EU was issued on 21 November 2013 as an addendum to the 1999 Directive. These laws are intended to improve public health and the environment, benefiting society by reducing disease, particularly respiratory problems. The first question which arises is: what fuel do ships currently use, and what fuel will they have to use to comply with the Convention? Today, large international shipping vessels consume fuel oil with a sulphur level of 3.5%. Do fuel oils exist with a sulphur level of 0.5%S? As we conclude in Chapter 4, oil companies regard marine fuel oil as a by-product of refining Brent to produce their basket of products, as the demand for fuel oil is declining in comparison to other products, and the profit margin on the sale of other petroleum products is higher. Thus, oil companies are not interested in investing in their refineries to produce low-sulphur fuel oils, and if a company should decide to invest in producing a 0.5%S fuel oil, its price would have to be very similar to that of marine gas oil in order to recoup the investment. Therefore, the only fuel which presently complies with the new levels required by the IMO is marine gas oil, which was priced on average 307 USD/tonne higher than current fuel oils during 2014. This higher purchasing price for fuel will have a direct impact on the cost of maritime transport. The entry into force of the above directive presents a challenge for the entire maritime sector. There are various alternative approaches to this situation, with different technical, operational and financial implications. At present three options are the most widespread in the sector. The first option consists of “doing nothing” and simply switching from fuel oil to marine gas oil in large ships. The second option is installing a scrubber system, which would enable ships to continue consuming fuel oil, cleaning the combustion gases before they are released to the atmosphere. And finally, the third option is using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which is priced lower than marine gas oil, as a fuel. However, there is still significant uncertainty on future variations in prices, the operation and maintenance of the new technologies, the investments required, the availability of port infrastructure and even future developments in the international regulations themselves. These uncertainties mean that none of these three alternatives has been unanimously accepted by the sector. In this Thesis, after discussing all the regulations applicable to the sector in Chapter 3, we investigate their consequences. In Chapter 4 we examine whether there are currently any marine fuels on the market which meet the new sulphur limits, and if not, how much new fuels would cost. In Chapter 5, based on the hypothesis that all ships will switch from fuel oil to marine gas oil to comply with the regulations, we calculate the increase in demand for marine gas oil this would lead to, and analyse the consequences this would have on marine gas oil production in the Mediterranean. We also calculate the economic impact such a cost increase would have on Spain's external sector. To do this, we also use the Automatic Identification System (AIS) system to analyse the data of every ship stopping in any Spanish port, in order to calculate the extra cost of using marine gas oil in maritime transport for all Spain's imports and exports. Finally, in Chapter 6, we examine and compare the other two alternatives to marine gas oil, scrubbers and LNG, and in Chapter 7 we analyse the viability of investing in these two technologies in order to comply with the regulations. In Chapter 5 we explain the many existing methods for calculating a ship's fuel consumption. We use a bottom-up calculation method, based on aggregating the activity and characteristics of each type of vessel. The result is based on the installed engine power of each ship, the engine load percentage and its specific consumption. To do this, we analyse the number of ships travelling in the Mediterranean in the course of one year, using the AIS, a marine traffic monitoring system, to take “snapshots” of marine traffic in the Mediterranean and report all ships at sea on random days throughout 2014. Finally, with the above data, we calculate the potential demand for marine gas oil in the Mediterranean. If nothing else is done and ships begin to use marine gas oil instead of fuel oil in order to comply with the regulation, the demand for marine gas oil in the Mediterranean will increase by 12.12 MTA (Millions Tonnes per Annum) from 2020. This means an increase of around 3.72 billion dollars a year in fuel costs, taking as reference the average price of marine fuels in 2014. Such an increase in demand in the Mediterranean would be equivalent to 43% of the total demand for diesel in Spain in 2013, including automotive diesel fuels, biodiesel and marine gas oils, and 3.2% of European consumption of middle distillates in 2014. Would the European market be able to supply enough to meet this greater demand for diesel? Europe has always had a surplus of gasoline and a deficit of middle distillates. In 2009, Europe had to import 4.8 MTA from North America and 22.1 MTA from Asia. Therefore, this increased demand on Europe's already limited capacity for refining middle distillates would lead to increased imports and higher prices, especially in the diesel market. The sector which would suffer the greatest impact of increased demand for marine gas oil would be Mediterranean cruise ships, which represent 30.4% of the fuel demand of the entire world cruise fleet, meaning their fuel costs would rise by 386 million USD per year. ROROs in the Mediterranean, which represent 23.6% of the demand of the world fleet of this type of ship, would see their fuel costs increase by 171 million USD a year. The greatest cost increase would be among container ships, with an increase on current costs of 1.168 billion USD per year. However, their consumption in the Mediterranean represents only 5.3% of worldwide fuel consumption by container ships. These figures raise the question of whether a cost increase of this size for RORO ships would lead to short-distance marine transport in general becoming less competitive compared to other transport options on certain routes. For example, some of the goods that ships now carry could switch to road transport, with the undesirable effects on the environment and on operations that this would produce. In the particular case of Spain, the extra cost of switching to marine gas oil in all ships stopping at any Spanish port in 2013 would be 1.717 billion EUR per year, as we demonstrate in the last part of Chapter 5. For this calculation, we used the AIS system to analyse all ships which stopped at any Spanish port, classifying them by distance travelled, type of ship and engine power. This rising cost of marine transport would be passed on to the Spanish external sector, increasing the cost of imports and exports by sea in a country which relies heavily on maritime transport, which accounts for 75.61% of Spain's total imports and 53.64% of its total exports. The three industries which would be worst affected are those with goods of lower value relative to transport costs. The increased costs over the total value of each good would be 2.94% for wood and cork, 2.14% for mineral products and 1.93% for manufactured stone, cement, ceramic and glass products. Goods entering via the two Spanish archipelagos, the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, would suffer the greatest impact from the extra cost of marine transport, as these ports are further away from other major ports and thus the distance travelled is greater. However, this is not the only option for compliance with the new regulations. From our readings in Chapter 6 we conclude that scrubbers and LNG propulsion would enable ships to use cheaper fuels than marine gas oil, in exchange for investing in these technologies. Would the savings gained by these new technologies be enough to justify the investment? To answer this question, in Chapter 7 we compare the three alternatives and calculate both the cost of investment and the operating costs associated with scrubbers or LNG propulsion for a selection of 53 categories of ships. Investing in scrubbers is more advisable for large ships with no fixed runs. However, for smaller ships with regular runs to ports with good LNG supply infrastructure, investing in LNG propulsion would be the best choice. In the case of total transit time within an ECA and the pricing scenario seen in 2014, the best payback periods on investments in scrubbers are for large cruise ships (100,000 gross tonnage), which would recoup their investment in 0.62 years; large container ships, with a 0.64 year payback period for those over 8,000 TEUs and 0.71 years for the 5,000-8,000 TEU category; and finally, large oil tankers over 200,000 deadweight tonnage, which would recoup their investment in 0.82 years. However, investing in scrubbers would have a longer payback period for smaller ships, up to 5 years or more for oil tankers and chemical tankers under 5,000 deadweight tonnage. In the case of LNG propulsion, a possible investment is more favourable and the payback period is shorter for smaller ship classes, such as ferries, cruise ships and ROROs. We now take the case of a ship transporting clean products, already built, with a deadweight tonnage of 38,500, and consider the viability of investing in installing a scrubber or changing to LNG propulsion, starting in 2015. The two variables with the greatest impact on the advisability of the investment are how long the ship is at sea within emission control areas (ECA) and the future price scenario of MGO, HSFO and LNG. For this analysis, we studied each investment, calculating a battery of merit conditions such as the payback period, IRR, NPV and variations in the investors' liquid assets. We then calculated the minimum boundary conditions to ensure the investment was not only acceptable but advisable for the investor shipowner. Thus, for the average price differential of 264.35 USD/tonne between HSFO and MGO during 2014, investors' return on investment (IRR) in scrubbers would be the same as the required opportunity cost of 9.6%, for values of over 56% ship transit time in ECAs. For the case of investing in LNG and the average price differential between MGO and LNG of 353.8 USD/tonne FOE in 2014, the ship must spend 64.8% of its time in ECAs for the investment to be advisable. For an estimated 60% of time in an ECA, the internal rate of return (IRR) for investors equals the required opportunity cost of 9.6%, based on a price difference of 244.73 USD/tonne between the two alternative fuels, marine gas oil (MGO) and fuel oil (HSFO). An investment in LNG propulsion would require a price differential between MGO and LNG of 382.3 USD/tonne FOE. Thus, for a 38,500 DWT ship carrying clean products, investing in retrofitting to install a scrubber is more advisable than converting to LNG, with an internal rate of return (IRR) for investors of 12.77%, compared to 6.81% for investing in LNG. Both calculations were based on a ship which spends 60% of its time at sea in an ECA and a scenario of average 2014 prices. However, for newly-built ships, investments in either of these technologies from 2025 would be advisable. Here, the shipowner must pay particular attention to the specific characteristics of their ship, the type of operation, and the infrastructure for supplying fuel and handling discharges in the ports where it will usually operate. Thus, while the consequences of switching to marine gas oil in order to comply with the MARPOL regulations are certainly alarming, there are alternatives to marine gas oil, with smaller increases in the costs of maritime transport, while maintaining the benefits to society this law is intended to provide. Indeed, as we have demonstrated, the options which appear most favourable from a financial viewpoint are conversion to LNG for small ships and regular runs (cruise ships, ferries, ROROs), and installing scrubbers for large ships. Unfortunately, however, these investments are not being made, due to the high uncertainty associated with these two markets, which increases business risk, both for shipowners and for the providers of these new technologies. This means we are seeing considerable reluctance regarding these two options among the private sector. This high level of risk can be lowered only by encouraging joint efforts by the public and private sectors to overcome these barriers to entry into the market for scrubbers and LNG, which could reduce the environmental externalities of emissions without affecting the competitiveness of marine transport. Our opinion is that the same bodies which approved this law must help the shipping industry invest in these technologies, drive research on them, and promote the creation of a port infrastructure which is adapted to supply LNG and handle the discharges from scrubber systems. At present there are several European incentive programmes, such as TEN-T and Marco Polo, but we do not consider these to be sufficient. For its part, the International Maritime Organization should confirm as soon as possible whether the new lower sulphur levels in fuels will be postponed until 2025. This would eliminate the great uncertainty among shipowners, oil companies and ports regarding the timeline for beginning their future investments and for studying their viability.