Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Regenerateengageexperiment in 2011! - News from Spatial Science Discipline at QUT

Abstract: Goals and potential impacts of QUT corporate Blueprint3 framework, university has made significant investments in physical infrastructure, and investments to improve staff profiles, particularly in relation to science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) disciplines. The most significant physical change to the Faculty’s infrastructure has seen new workshop and teaching and research spaces located in Science and Technology precinct under construction. Also includes Alumni news, input and output numbers Spatial Science discussion, Work Integrated Learning (WIL) in 2011, some key teaching administrative dates in 2011.

Review ["Telling the Evolutionary Time : Molecular Clocks and the Fossil Record" edited by Philip C. J. Donoghue and M. Paul Smith]

Determining the temporal scale of biological evolution has traditionally been the preserve of paleontology, with the timing of species originations and major diversifications all being read from the fossil record. However, the ages of the earliest (correctly identified) records will underestimate actual origins due to the incomplete nature of the fossil record and the necessity for lineages to have evolved sufficiently divergent morphologies in order to be distinguished. The possibility of inferring divergence times more accurately has been promoted by the idea that the accumulation of genetic change between modern lineages can be used as a molecular clock (Zuckerkandl and Pauling, 1965). In practice, though, molecular dates have often been so old as to be incongruent even with liberal readings of the fossil record. Prominent examples include inferred diversifications of metazoan phyla hundreds of millions of years before their Cambrian fossil record appearances (e.g., Nei et al., 2001) and a basal split between modern birds (Neoaves) that is almost double the age of their earliest recognizable fossils (e.g., Cooper and Penny, 1997).

Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

Time dependency of molecular rate estimates and systematic overestimation of recent divergence times

Studies of molecular evolutionary rates have yielded a wide range of rate estimates for various genes and taxa. Recent studies based on population-level and pedigree data have produced remarkably high estimates of mutation rate, which strongly contrast with substitution rates inferred in phylogenetic (species-level) studies. Using Bayesian analysis with a relaxed-clock model, we estimated rates for three groups of mitochondrial data: avian protein-coding genes, primate protein-coding genes, and primate d-loop sequences. In all three cases, we found a measurable transition between the high, short-term (<1–2 Myr) mutation rate and the low, long-term substitution rate. The relationship between the age of the calibration and the rate of change can be described by a vertically translated exponential decay curve, which may be used for correcting molecular date estimates. The phylogenetic substitution rates in mitochondria are approximately 0.5% per million years for avian protein-coding sequences and 1.5% per million years for primate protein-coding and d-loop sequences. Further analyses showed that purifying selection offers the most convincing explanation for the observed relationship between the estimated rate and the depth of the calibration. We rule out the possibility that it is a spurious result arising from sequence errors, and find it unlikely that the apparent decline in rates over time is caused by mutational saturation. Using a rate curve estimated from the d-loop data, several dates for last common ancestors were calculated: modern humans and Neandertals (354 ka; 222–705 ka), Neandertals (108 ka; 70–156 ka), and modern humans (76 ka; 47–110 ka). If the rate curve for a particular taxonomic group can be accurately estimated, it can be a useful tool for correcting divergence date estimates by taking the rate decay into account. Our results show that it is invalid to extrapolate molecular rates of change across different evolutionary timescales, which has important consequences for studies of populations, domestication, conservation genetics, and human evolution.

Dating of divergences within the Rattus genus phylogeny using whole mitochondrial genomes

The timing and order of divergences within the genus Rattus have, to date, been quite speculative. In order to address these important issues we sequenced six new whole mitochondrial genomes from wild-caught specimens from four species, Rattus exulans, Rattus praetor, Rattus rattus and Rattus tanezumi. The only rat whole mitochondrial genomes available previously were all from Rattus norvegicus specimens. Our phylogenetic and dating analyses place the deepest divergence within Rattus at ∼3.5 million years ago (Mya). This divergence separates the New Guinean endemic R. praetor lineage from the Asian lineages. Within the Asian/Island Southeast Asian clade R. norvegicus diverged earliest at ∼2.9 Mya. R. exulans and the ancestor of the sister species R. rattus and R. tanezumi subsequently diverged at ∼2.2 Mya, with R. rattus and R. tanezumi separating as recently as ∼0.4 Mya. Our results give both a better resolved species divergence order and diversification dates within Rattus than previous studies.

Visual support for work assignment in process-aware information systems : framework formalisation and implementation

Process-aware information systems, ranging from generic workflow systems to dedicated enterprise information systems, use work-lists to offer so-called work items to users. In real scenarios, users can be confronted with a very large number of work items that stem from multiple cases of different processes. In this jungle of work items, users may find it hard to choose the right item to work on next. The system cannot autonomously decide which is the right work item, since the decision is also dependent on conditions that are somehow outside the system. For instance, what is “best” for an organisation should be mediated with what is “best” for its employees. Current work-list handlers show work items as a simple sorted list and therefore do not provide much decision support for choosing the right work item. Since the work-list handler is the dominant interface between the system and its users, it is worthwhile to provide an intuitive graphical interface that uses contextual information about work items and users to provide suggestions about prioritisation of work items. This paper uses the so-called map metaphor to visualise work items and resources (e.g., users) in a sophisticated manner. Moreover, based on distance notions, the work-list handler can suggest the next work item by considering different perspectives. For example, urgent work items of a type that suits the user may be highlighted. The underlying map and distance notions may be of a geographical nature (e.g., a map of a city or office building), but may also be based on process designs, organisational structures, social networks, due dates, calendars, etc. The framework proposed in this paper is generic and can be applied to any process-aware information system. Moreover, in order to show its practical feasibility, the paper discusses a full-fledged implementation developed in the context of the open-source workflow environment YAWL, together with two real examples stemming from two very different scenarios. The results of an initial usability evaluation of the implementation are also presented, which provide a first indication of the validity of the approach.

Frames of Anime: Culture and Image-Building

With the rising popularity of anime amongst animation students, audiences and scholars around the world, it has become increasingly important to critically analyse anime as being more than a ‘limited’ form of animation, and thematically as encompassing more than super robots and pocket monsters. Frames of Anime: Culture and Image-Building charts the development of Japanese animation from its indigenous roots within a native culture, through Japan’s experience of modernity and the impact of the Second World War. This text is the result of a rigorous study that recognises the heterogeneous and polymorphous background of anime. As such, Tze-Yue has adopted an ‘interdisciplinary and transnational’ (p. 7) approach to her enquiry, drawing upon face-to-face interviews, on-site visits and biographical writings of animators. Tze-Yue delineates anime from other forms of animation by linking its visual style to pre-modern Japanese art forms and demonstrating the connection it shares with an indigenous folk system of beliefs. Via the identification of traditional Japanese art forms and their visual connectedness to Japanese animation, Tze-Yue shows that the Japanese were already heavily engaged in what was destined to become anime once technology had enabled its production. Tze-Yue’s efforts to connect traditional Japanese art forms, and their artistic elements, to contemporary anime reveals that the Japanese already had a rich culture of visual storytelling that pre-dates modern animation. She identifies the Japanese form of the magic lantern at the turn of the 19th century, utsushi-e, as the pre-modern ancestor of Japanese animation, describing it as ‘Edo anime’ (p. 43). Along with utsushi-e, the Edo period also saw the woodblock print, ukiyo-e, being produced for the rising middle class (p. 32). Highlighting the ‘resurfacing’ of ‘realist’ approaches to Japanese art in ukiyo-e, Tze-Yue demonstrates the visual connection of ukiyo-e and anime in the …

Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

Dating the origins of the maize-adapted strain of maize streak virus, MSV-A

Maize streak virus (MSV), which causes maize streak disease (MSD), is one of the most serious biotic threats to African food security. Here, we use whole MSV genomes sampled over 30 years to estimate the dates of key evolutionary events in the 500 year association of MSV and maize. The substitution rates implied by our analyses agree closely with those estimated previously in controlled MSV evolution experiments, and we use them to infer the date when the maize-adapted strain, MSV-A, was generated by recombination between two grass-adapted MSV strains. Our results indicate that this recombination event occurred in the mid-1800s, ∼20 years before the first credible reports of MSD in South Africa and centuries after the introduction of maize to the continent in the early 1500s. This suggests a causal link between MSV recombination and the emergence of MSV-A as a serious pathogen of maize. © 2009 SGM.

Accurate stratospheric particle size distributions from two separate flat-plate collection surfaces

Over the past two decades, flat-plate particle collections have revealed the presence of a remarkable variety of both terrestrial and extraterrestrial material in the stratosphere [1-6]. The ratio of terrestrial to extraterrestrial material and the nature of material collected may vary over observable time scales. Variations in particle number density can be important since the earth’s atmospheric radiation balance, and therefore the earth’s climate, can be influenced by articulate absorption and scattering of radiation from the sun and earth [7-9]. In order to assess the number density of solid particles in the stratosphere, we have examined a representative fraction of the so1id particles from two flat-plate collection surfaces, whose collection dates are separated in time by 5 years.

Bodyweight and other correlates of symptom detected breast cancers in a population offered screening

Objective: To determine factors associated with symptom detected breast cancers in a population offered screening. Methods We interviewed 1,459 Australian women aged 40–69, 946 with symptom detected and 513 with mammogram detected invasive breast cancers ≥1.1 cm in diameter, about their personal, mammogram and breast histories before diagnosis and reviewed medical records for tumour characteristics and mammogram dates, calculating ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for symptom- vs mammogram-detected cancers in logistic regression models. Results: Lack of regular mammograms (<2 mammograms in the 4.5 years before diagnosis) was the strongest correlate of symptom detected breast cancer (OR=3.04 for irregular or no mammograms). In women who had regular mammograms (≥2 mammograms in the 4.5 years before diagnosis), the independent correlates of symptom detected cancers were low BMI (OR <25kg/m2 vs ≥30kg/m2=2.18, 95% CI 1.23-3.84; p=0.008), increased breast density (available in 498 women) (OR highest quarter vs lowest =3.50, 95% CI 1.76-6.97; ptrend=0.004), high grade cancer and a larger cancer (each p<0.01). In women who did not have regular mammograms, the independent correlates were age <50 years, a first cancer and a ≥2cm cancer. Smoking appeared to modify the association of symptom detected cancer with low BMI (higher ORs for low BMI in current smokers) and estrogen receptor (ER) status (higher ORs for low BMI in ER− cancers). Conclusion: Women with low BMI may benefit from a tailored approach to breast cancer detection, particularly if they smoke.

Prenatal Vitamin D deficiency induces an early and more severe experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis in the second generation

In a previous study, we demonstrated that mouse adult F(1) offspring, exposed to a vitamin d deficiency during pregnancy, developed a less severe and delayed Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis (EAE), when compared with control offspring. We then wondered whether a similar response was observed in the subsequent generation. To answer this question, we assessed F(2) females whose F(1) parents (males or females) were vitamin d-deprived when developing in the uterus of F(0) females. Unexpectedly, we observed that the vitamin d deficiency affecting the F(0) pregnant mice induced a precocious and more severe EAE in the F(2) generation. This paradoxical finding led us to assess its implications for the epidemiology of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) in humans. Using the REFGENSEP database for MS trios (the patient and his/her parents), we collected the parents' dates of birth and assessed a potential season of birth effect that could potentially be indicative of the vitamin d status of the pregnant grandmothers. A trend for a reduced number of births in the Fall for the parents of MS patients was observed but statistical significance was not reached. Further well powered studies are warranted to validate the latter finding.

Taxonomy and palaeoecology of Quaternary faunas from caves in eastern tropical Queensland : a record of broad-scale environmental change

Analysis of fossils from cave deposits at Mount Etna (eastern-central Queensland) has established that a species-rich rainforest palaeoenvironment existed in that area during the middle Pleistocene. This unexpected finding has implications for several fields (e.g., biogeography/phylogeography of rainforest-adapted taxa, and the impact of climate change on rainforest communities), but it was unknown whether the Mount Etna sites represented a small refugial patch of rainforest or was more widespread. In this study numerous bone deposits in caves in north-east Queensland are analysed to reconstruct the environmental history of the area during the late Quaternary. Study sites are in the Chillagoe/Mitchell Palmer and Broken River/Christmas Creek areas. The cave fossil records in these study areas are compared with dated (middle Pleistocene-Holocene) cave sites in the Mount Etna area. Substantial taxonomic work on the Mount Etna faunas (particularly dasyurid marsupials and murine rodents) is also presented as a prerequisite for meaningful comparison with the study sites further north. Middle Pleistocene sites at Mount Etna contain species indicative of a rainforest palaeoenvironment. Small mammal assemblages in the Mount Etna rainforest sites (>500-280 ka) are unexpectedly diverse and composed almost entirely of new species. Included in the rainforest assemblages are lineages with no extant representatives in rainforest (e.g., Leggadina), one genus previously known only from New Guinea (Abeomelomys), and forms that appear to bridge gaps between related but morphologically-divergent extant taxa ('B-rat' and 'Pseudomys C'). Curiously, some taxa (e.g., Melomys spp.) are notable for their absence from the Mount Etna rainforest sites. After 280 ka the rainforest faunas are replaced by species adapted to open, dry habitats. At that time the extinct ‘rainforest’ dasyurids and rodents are replaced by species that are either extant or recently extant. By the late Pleistocene all ‘rainforest’ and several ‘dry’ taxa are locally or completely extinct, and the small mammal fauna resembles that found in the area today. The faunal/environmental changes recorded in the Mount Etna sites were interpreted by previous workers as the result of shifts in climate during the Pleistocene. Many samples from caves in the Chillagoe/Mitchell-Palmer and Broken River/Christmas Creek areas are held in the Queensland Museum’s collection. These, supplemented with additional samples collected in the field as well as samples supplied by other workers, were systematically and palaeoecologically analysed for the first time. Palaeoecological interpretation of the faunal assemblages in the sites suggests that they encompass a similar array of palaeoenvironments as the Mount Etna sites. ‘Rainforest’ sites at the Broken River are here interpreted as being of similar age to those at Mount Etna, suggesting the possibility of extensive rainforest coverage in eastern tropical Queensland during part of the Pleistocene. Likewise, faunas suggesting open, dry palaeoenvironments are found at Chillagoe, the Broken River and Mount Etna, and may be of similar age. The 'dry' faunal assemblage at Mount Etna (Elephant hole Cave) dates to 205-170 ka. Dating of one of the Chillagoe sites (QML1067) produced a maximum age for the deposit of approximately 200 ka, and the site is interpreted as being close to that age, supporting the interpretation of roughly contemporaneous deposition at Mount Etna and Chillagoe. Finally, study sites interpreted as being of late Pleistocene-Holocene age show faunal similarities to sites of that age near Mount Etna. This study has several important implications for the biogeography and phylogeography of murine rodents, and represents a major advance in the study of the Australian murine fossil record. Likewise the survey of the northern study areas is the first systematic analysis of multiple sites in those areas, and is thus a major contribution to knowledge of tropical Australian faunas during the Quaternary. This analysis suggests that climatic changes during the Pleistocene affected a large area of eastern tropical Queensland in similar ways. Further fieldwork and dating is required to properly analyse the geographical extent and timing of faunal change in eastern tropical Queensland.