Hendra Virus and Horse Owners – Risk Perception and Management

Hendra virus is a highly pathogenic novel paramyxovirus causing sporadic fatal infection in horses and humans in Australia. Species of fruit-bats (genus Pteropus), commonly known as flying-foxes, are the natural host of the virus. We undertook a survey of horse owners in the states of Queensland and New South Wales, Australia to assess the level of adoption of recommended risk management strategies and to identify impediments to adoption. Survey questionnaires were completed by 1431 respondents from the target states, and from a spectrum of industry sectors. Hendra virus knowledge varied with sector, but was generally limited, with only 13% of respondents rating their level of knowledge as high or very high. The majority of respondents (63%) had seen their state’s Hendra virus information for horse owners, and a similar proportion found the information useful. Fifty-six percent of respondents thought it moderately, very or extremely likely that a Hendra virus case could occur in their area, yet only 37% said they would consider Hendra virus if their horse was sick. Only 13% of respondents stabled their horses overnight, although another 24% said it would be easy or very easy to do so, but hadn’t done so. Only 13% and 15% of respondents respectively had horse feed bins and water points under solid cover. Responses varied significantly with state, likely reflecting different Hendra virus history. The survey identified inconsistent awareness and/or adoption of available knowledge, confusion in relation to Hendra virus risk perception, with both over-and under-estimation of true risk, and lag in the uptake of recommended risk minimisation strategies, even when these were readily implementable. However, we also identified frustration and potential alienation by horse owners who found the recommended strategies impractical, onerous and prohibitively expensive. The insights gained from this survey have broader application to other complex risk-management scenarios.

Modular risk modeling and management of water infrastructure disaster incidents

Water supply and wastewater control are critical elements of society's infrastructure. The objective of this study will be to provide a generic risk assessment tool to provide municipalities and the nation as a whole with a quantifiable assessment of their vulnerability to water infrastructure threats. The approach will prioritize countermeasures and identify where research and development is required to further minimize risk. This paper outlines the current context, primary concerns and state-of-the art in critical infrastructure risk management for the water sector and proposes a novel approach to resolve existing questions in the field. The proposed approach is based on a modular framework that derives a quantitative risk index for varied domains of interest. The approach methodology is scaleable and based on formal definitions of event probability and severity. The framework is equally applicable to natural and human-induced hazard types and can be used for analysis of compound risk events.

Psychosocial impact of breast/ovarian (BRCA 1/2) cancer-predictive genetic testing in a UK multi-centre clinical cohort

This multi-centre UK study assesses the impact of predictive testing for breast and ovarian cancer predisposition genes (BRCA 1/2) in the clinical context. In the year following predictive testing, 261 adults (59 male) from nine UK genetics centres participated; 9 I gene mutation carriers and 170 noncarriers. Self-report questionnaires were completed at baseline (pre-genetic testing) and 1, 4 and 12 months following the genetic test result. Men were assessed for general mental health (by general health questionnaire (GHQ)) and women for general mental health, cancer-related worry, intrusive and avoidant thoughts, perception of risk and risk management behaviour. Main comparisons were between female carriers and noncarriers on all measures and men and women for general mental health. Female noncarriers benefited psychologically, with significant reductions in cancer-related worry following testing (P

A Risky Business: An Examination of Irish Probation Officers Attitudes and Work Practices Regarding Risk Assessment

This article examines recent research on risk assessment and probation practice in Ireland and relates the findings to the ongoing debate regarding risk management practices in probation. The piece discusses current theoretical arguments on the influence of risk in criminal justice and outlines the impact of risk discourse on probation practice in Ireland and England and Wales. Using a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, Irish probation officers’ attitudes are examined in order to highlight key issues facing probation officers when making risk decisions. These findings are compared and contrasted to other research results from England and Wales. All the conclusions identify both positive and negative consequences of adopting risk tools and point to the continued salience of clinical judgment over actuarial methods of risk assessment. It is argued that the research highlights the role of ‘resistance’ by criminal justice professionals in mediating the effects of the ‘new penology’ at the level of implementation. The idea of resistance holds particular relevance for probation practice in Ireland where professional discretion is maintained within the National Standards framework. Despite this, to date there has been an uncritical approach taken to risk assessment which may ignore the dangers of risk inflation/deflation and the need to take into account local factors in assessing risk of reoffending

Bridging Knowledge Gaps in the Management of Acute Coronary Syndromes

Contexte L’occlusion d’une artère du cœur cause un syndrome coronarien aigu (SCA) soit avec une élévation du segment ST (IAMEST) ou sans élévation du segment ST (1). Le traitement des patients avec un IAMEST requiert soit une intervention coronarienne d’urgence (ICP primaire) ou une thérapie fibrinolytique (FL). La thérapie FL peut être administrée soit dans un contexte pré-hospitalier (PHL) ou à l’hôpital. Une prise en charge précoce des patients avec SCA peut être améliorée par un simple indice de risque. Objectifs Les objectifs de cette thèse étaient de : 1) comparer l’ICP primaire et la thérapie FL (2); décrire plusieurs systèmes internationaux de PHL; (3) développer et valider un indice de risque simplifié pour une stratification précoce des patients avec SCA. Méthodes Nous complétons des méta-analyses, de type hiérarchique Bayésiennes portant sur l’effet de la randomisation, d’études randomisées et observationnelles; complétons également un sondage sur des systèmes internationaux de PHL; développons et validons un nouvel indice de risque pour ACS (le C-ACS). Résultats Dans les études observationnelles, l’ICP primaire, comparée à la thérapie FL, est associée à une plus grande réduction de la mortalité à court-terme; mais ce sans bénéfices concluants à long terme. La FL pré-hospitalière peut être administrée par des professionnels de la santé possédant diverses expertises. Le C-ACS a des bonnes propriétés discriminatoires et pourrait être utilisé dans la stratification des patients avec SCA. Conclusion Nous avons comblé plusieurs lacunes importantes au niveau de la connaissance actuelle. Cette thèse de doctorat contribuera à améliorer l’accès à des soins de qualité élevée pour les patients ayant un SCA.

Animal Biosafety Risk Assessment and Management Training Video

This training video is intended to familiarise researchers and technicians working in animal containment facilities with appropriate risk assessment and risk management systems. It is in Windows Media Video format which will require a free media player such as Windows Media Player or VLC Media Player (http://www.videolan.org/vlc/) to watch.

Towards an integrated script for risk and value management: insights from the dramaturgical metaphor

It is contended that the current conceptual distinction between risk management and value management is unsustainable. The origins of the two traditions are reviewed and critiqued from a postmodernist perspective. It is concluded that they differ primarily in terms of their rhetoric, rather than their substantive content. Insights into the current practice of risk and value management are provided by considering their enactment in terms of ‘performance’. The scripts for such performances are seen to be provided by the accepted methodologies which determine the language to be used and the roles to be acted out. A coherent integrated script for risk and value management can be provided by the methodology known as strategic choice, which replaces the language of ‘risk’ and ‘value’ with that of ‘uncertainty’. The benefits of adopting this alternative script are illustrated through six case studies.

PINCER trial: a cluster randomised trial comparing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a pharmacist-led IT-based intervention with simple feedback in reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices

Background: Medication errors in general practice are an important source of potentially preventable morbidity and mortality. Building on previous descriptive, qualitative and pilot work, we sought to investigate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and likely generalisability of a complex pharm acist-led IT-based intervention aiming to improve prescribing safety in general practice. Objectives: We sought to: • Test the hypothesis that a pharmacist-led IT-based complex intervention using educational outreach and practical support is more effective than simple feedback in reducing the proportion of patients at risk from errors in prescribing and medicines management in general practice. • Conduct an economic evaluation of the cost per error avoided, from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS). • Analyse data recorded by pharmacists, summarising the proportions of patients judged to be at clinical risk, the actions recommended by pharmacists, and actions completed in the practices. • Explore the views and experiences of healthcare professionals and NHS managers concerning the intervention; investigate potential explanations for the observed effects, and inform decisions on the future roll-out of the pharmacist-led intervention • Examine secular trends in the outcome measures of interest allowing for informal comparison between trial practices and practices that did not participate in the trial contributing to the QRESEARCH database. Methods Two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of 72 English general practices with embedded economic analysis and longitudinal descriptive and qualitative analysis. Informal comparison of the trial findings with a national descriptive study investigating secular trends undertaken using data from practices contributing to the QRESEARCH database. The main outcomes of interest were prescribing errors and medication monitoring errors at six- and 12-months following the intervention. Results: Participants in the pharmacist intervention arm practices were significantly less likely to have been prescribed a non-selective NSAID without a proton pump inhibitor (PPI) if they had a history of peptic ulcer (OR 0.58, 95%CI 0.38, 0.89), to have been prescribed a beta-blocker if they had asthma (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58, 0.91) or (in those aged 75 years and older) to have been prescribed an ACE inhibitor or diuretic without a measurement of urea and electrolytes in the last 15 months (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.34, 0.78). The economic analysis suggests that the PINCER pharmacist intervention has 95% probability of being cost effective if the decision-maker’s ceiling willingness to pay reaches £75 (6 months) or £85 (12 months) per error avoided. The intervention addressed an issue that was important to professionals and their teams and was delivered in a way that was acceptable to practices with minimum disruption of normal work processes. Comparison of the trial findings with changes seen in QRESEARCH practices indicated that any reductions achieved in the simple feedback arm were likely, in the main, to have been related to secular trends rather than the intervention. Conclusions Compared with simple feedback, the pharmacist-led intervention resulted in reductions in proportions of patients at risk of prescribing and monitoring errors for the primary outcome measures and the composite secondary outcome measures at six-months and (with the exception of the NSAID/peptic ulcer outcome measure) 12-months post-intervention. The intervention is acceptable to pharmacists and practices, and is likely to be seen as costeffective by decision makers.

Risk-assessment algorithm and recommendations for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in medical patients

The risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in medical patients is high, but risk assessment is rarely performed because there is not yet a good method to identify candidates for prophylaxis. Purpose: To perform a systematic review about VTE risk factors (RFs) in hospitalized medical patients and generate recommendations (RECs) for prophylaxis that can be implemented into practice. Data sources: A multidisciplinary group of experts from 12 Brazilian Medical Societies searched MEDLINE, Cochrane, and LILACS. Study selection: Two experts independently classified the evidence for each RF by its scientific quality in a standardized manner. A risk-assessment algorithm was created based on the results of the review. Data synthesis: Several VTE RFs have enough evidence to support RECs for prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients (eg, increasing age, heart failure, and stroke). Other factors are considered adjuncts of risk (eg, varices, obesity, and infections). According to the algorithm, hospitalized medical patients ≥40 years-old with decreased mobility, and ≥1 RFs should receive chemoprophylaxis with heparin, provided they don't have contraindications. High prophylactic doses of unfractionated heparin or low-molecular-weight-heparin must be administered and maintained for 6-14 days. Conclusions: A multidisciplinary group generated evidence-based RECs and an easy-to-use algorithm to facilitate VTE prophylaxis in medical patients. © 2007 Rocha et al, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd.

Indicators of the risk mechanics for Class-I and Class-II amalgam and composite resin restorations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The Next 10 years in the Management of Peripheral Artery Disease: Perspectives from The 'PAD 2009' Conference

OBJECTIVES: To briefly inform on the conclusions from a conference on the next 10 years in the management of peripheral artery disease (PAD). DESIGN OF THE CONFERENCE: International participation, invited presentations and open discussion were based on the following issues: Why is PAD under-recognised? Health economic impact of PAD; funding of PAD research; changes of treatment options? Aspects on clinical trials and regulatory views; and the role of guidelines. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: A relative lack of knowledge about cardiovascular risk and optimal management of PAD patients exists not only among the public, but also in parts of the health-care system. Specialists are required to act for improved information. More specific PAD research is needed for risk management and to apply the best possible evaluation of evidence for treatment strategies. Better strategies for funding are required based on, for example, public/private initiatives. The proportion of endovascular treatments is steadily increasing, more frequently based on observational studies than on randomised controlled trials. The role of guidelines is therefore important to guide the profession in the assessment of most relevant treatment.

[Second victim : Critical incident stress management in clinical medicine]

BACKGROUND Critical incidents in clinical medicine can have far-reaching consequences on patient health. In cases of severe medical errors they can seriously harm the patient or even lead to death. The involvement in such an event can result in a stress reaction, a so-called acute posttraumatic stress disorder in the healthcare provider, the so-called second victim of an adverse event. Psychological distress may not only have a long lasting impact on quality of life of the physician or caregiver involved but it may also affect the ability to provide safe patient care in the aftermath of adverse events. METHODS A literature review was performed to obtain information on care giver responses to medical errors and to determine possible supportive strategies to mitigate negative consequences of an adverse event on the second victim. An internet search and a search in Medline/Pubmed for scientific studies were conducted using the key words "second victim, "medical error", "critical incident stress management" (CISM) and "critical incident stress reporting system" (CIRS). Sources from academic medical societies and public institutions which offer crisis management programs where analyzed. The data were sorted by main categories and relevance for hospitals. Analysis was carried out using descriptive measures. RESULTS In disaster medicine and aviation navigation services the implementation of a CISM program is an efficient intervention to help staff to recover after a traumatic event and to return to normal functioning and behavior. Several other concepts for a clinical crisis management plan were identified. CONCLUSIONS The integration of CISM and CISM-related programs in a clinical setting may provide efficient support in an acute crisis and may help the caregiver to deal effectively with future error events and employee safety.

Management of patients during hunger strike and refeeding phase

OBJECTIVE Hunger strikers resuming nutritional intake may develop a life-threatening refeeding syndrome (RFS). Consequently, hunger strikers represent a core challenge for the medical staff. The objective of the study was to test the effectiveness and safety of evidence-based recommendations for prevention and management of RFS during the refeeding phase. METHODS This was a retrospective, observational data analysis of 37 consecutive, unselected cases of prisoners on a hunger strike during a 5-y period. The sample consisted of 37 cases representing 33 individual patients. RESULTS In seven cases (18.9%), the hunger strike was continued during the hospital stay, in 16 episodes (43.2%) cessation of the hunger strike occurred immediately after admission to the security ward, and in 14 episodes (37.9%) during hospital stay. In the refeed cases (n = 30), nutritional replenishment occurred orally, and in 25 (83.3%) micronutrients substitutions were made based on the recommendations. The gradual refeeding with fluid restriction occurred over 10 d. Uncomplicated dyselectrolytemia was documented in 12 cases (40%) within the refeeding phase. One case (3.3%) presented bilateral ankle edemas as a clinical manifestation of moderate RFS. Intensive medical treatment was not necessary and none of the patients died. Seven episodes of continued hunger strike were observed during the entire hospital stay without medical complications. CONCLUSIONS Our data suggested that seriousness and rate of medical complications during the refeeding phase can be kept at a minimum in a hunger strike population. This study supported use of recommendations to optimize risk management and to improve treatment quality and patient safety in this vulnerable population.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.