A new modern analogue reference dataset and its application to the 430-kyr pollen record from Lake Biwa

This study presents a newly compiled dataset of modern pollen and climate data from 798 sites across Japan and the Russian Far East. This comprehensive reference dataset combined with the modern analogue technique (MAT) provides a powerful tool for pollen-based reconstruction of the Quaternary Northwest Pacific climate. Pollen-derived reconstruction of the modern climate at the reference pollen-sampling sites matches well with the estimated modern climate values (R2 values vary between 0.79 and 0.95, and RMSEP values vary between 5.8 and 9.7% of the modern climatic range for all nine tested variables). The successful testing of the method encourages its application to the fossil pollen records. We used a coarse-resolution pollen record from Lake Biwa to reconstruct glacial-interglacial climate dynamics in central Japan since ~438 kyr and compared it to the earlier reconstruction based on a less representative reference dataset. The current and earlier results consistently demonstrate that the coldest glacial intervals experienced pronounced cooling in winter and moderate cooling in summer, supporting the growth of cool mixed forest (COMX) where warm mixed forest (WAMX) predominates today. During the last glacial, maximum (~24 kyr BP) mean temperatures of the coldest (MTCO) and warmest (MTWA) month were about -13 °C (RMSEP = 2.34 °C) and 21 °C (RMSEP = 1.66 °C) respectively, and annual precipitation (PANN) was about 800 mm (RMSEP = 158.06 mm). During the thermal optimums of the interglacial intervals, the temperatures of the coldest and warmest month were above 0 °C and 25 °C respectively, leading to the reconstruction of WAMX and temperate conifer forest (TECO). Although both these vegetation types grow in the southern part of Japan today, WAMX requires warmer space. The presence of WAMX during marine isotope stages (MIS) 11 and 1, and its absence during MIS 9 and MIS 5 contradict the marine isotope and Antarctic ice records, suggesting that the latter two interglacials were the warmest of the last 800 kyr. The apparent contradiction allows at least three different explanations including low temporal resolution of the pollen record; different trends in CO2 concentrations during 'short' and 'long' interglacials; and regional climate variability and non-linear response of different regions to the global forcing. More definitive conclusions will be possible on the basis of forthcoming high-resolution pollen records from central Japan.

Profiles of diatoms, pollen, XRD, XRF and organic composition of two sediment cores (PG2022 and PG2023) from Lake Kyutyunda in Yakutia, NE Siberia, Russia

Although the climate development over the Holocene in the Northern Hemisphere is well known, palaeolimnological climate reconstructions reveal spatiotemporal variability in northern Eurasia. Here we present a multi-proxy study from north-eastern Siberia combining sediment geochemistry, and diatom and pollen data from lake-sediment cores covering the last 38,000 cal. years. Our results show major changes in pyrite content and fragilarioid diatom species distributions, indicating prolonged seasonal lake-ice cover between ~13,500 and ~8,900 cal. years BP and possibly during the 8,200 cal. years BP cold event. A pollen-based climate reconstruction generated a mean July temperature of 17.8°C during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) between ~8,900 and ~4,500 cal. years BP. Naviculoid diatoms appear in the late Holocene indicating a shortening of the seasonal ice cover that continues today. Our results reveal a strong correlation between the applied terrestrial and aquatic indicators and natural seasonal climate dynamics in the Holocene. Planktonic diatoms show a strong response to changes in the lake ecosystem due to recent climate warming in the Anthropocene. We assess other palaeolimnological studies to infer the spatiotemporal pattern of the HTM and affirm that the timing of its onset, a difference of up to 3,000 years from north to south, can be well explained by climatic teleconnections. The westerlies brought cold air to this part of Siberia until the Laurentide ice-sheet vanished 7,000 years ago. The apparent delayed ending of the HTM in the central Siberian record can be ascribed to the exceedance of ecological thresholds trailing behind increases in winter temperatures and decreases in contrast in insolation between seasons during the mid to late Holocene as well as lacking differentiation between summer and winter trends in paleolimnological reconstructions.

Reference datasets and pollen record from sediment core YAK, Yakumo, SW Hokkaido

This study reconstructs middle and late Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics in the Oshima Peninsula, SW Hokkaido, using the published method of biome reconstruction and modern analogue technique applied to the Yakumo pollen record (42°17'03''N, 140°15'34''E) spanning the last 5500 years. Two previously published matrices assigning Japanese plant/pollen taxa to the major vegetation types (biomes) are tested using a newly compiled dataset of 78 surface pollen spectra from Hokkaido. With both matrices showing strengths and weaknesses in reconstructing cool mixed and temperate deciduous forests of Hokkaido, the results suggest the necessity to consider the whole list of identified terrestrial pollen taxa for generating robust vegetation reconstructions for northern Japan. Applied to the fossil pollen data, both biome-reconstruction approaches demonstrate consistently that oak-dominated cool mixed forest spread in the study region between 5.5 and 3.6 cal ka BP and was subsequently replaced by beech-dominated temperate deciduous forest. The pollen-based climate reconstruction suggests this change in the vegetation composition was caused by a shift from cooler and drier than present climate to warmer and wetter, similar to modern conditions about 3.6 cal ka BP. Comparing the pollen-based reconstruction results with the published marine records from the NW Pacific, the reconstructed vegetation and climate dynamics can be satisfactorily explained by the greater role played by the warm Tsushima Current in the Sea of Japan and in the Tsugaru Strait during the middle and late Holocene. An increase in sea surface temperatures west and south of the study site would favour air temperature rise and moisture uptake and cause an increase in precipitation and snow accumulation in the western part of Hokkaido during the late Holocene.

Simulated temperature changes as a result of Antarctic ice sheet growth and CO2 reduction

During the Middle Miocene climate transition about 14 million years ago, the Antarctic ice sheet expanded to near-modern volume. Surprisingly, this ice sheet growth was accompanied by a warming in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean, whereas a slight deep-water temperature increase was delayed by more than 200 thousand years. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the relative effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and ice sheet growth on regional and global temperatures. In the simulations, changes in the wind field associated with the growth of the ice sheet induce changes in ocean circulation, deep-water formation and sea-ice cover that result in sea surface warming and deep-water cooling in large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean. We interpret these changes as the dominant ocean surface response to a 100-thousand-year phase of massive ice growth in Antarctica. A rise in global annual mean temperatures is also seen in response to increased Antarctic ice surface elevation. In contrast, the longer-term surface and deep-water temperature trends are dominated by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We therefore conclude that the climatic and oceanographic impacts of the Miocene expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet are governed by a complex interplay between wind field, ocean circulation and the sea-ice system.

Palynology on sediment profile Tso Kar in Ladakh

Palynological investigation of a 410 cm long core section from Tso Kar (33°10'N, 78°E, 4527 m a.s.l.), an alpine lake situated in the arid Ladakh area of NW India at the limit of the present-day Indian summer monsoon, was performed in order to reconstruct post-glacial regional vegetation and climate dynamics. The area was covered with alpine desert vegetation from ca. 15.2 to 14 kyr BP (1 kyr=1000 cal. years), reflecting dry and cold conditions. High influx values of long-distance transported Pinus sylvestris type pollen suggest prevailing air flow from the west and northwest. The spread of alpine meadow communities and local aquatic vegetation is a weak sign of climate amelioration after ca. 14 kyr BP. Pollen data (e.g. influx values of Pinus roxburghii type and Quercus) suggest that this was due to a strengthening of the summer monsoon and the reduced activity of westerly winds. The further spread of Artemisia and species-rich meadows occurred in response to improved moisture conditions between ca. 12.9 and 12.5 kyr BP. The subsequent change towards drier desert-steppe vegetation likely indicates more frequent westerly disturbances and associated snowfalls, which favoured the persistence of alpine meadows on edaphically moist sites. The spread of Chenopodiaceae-dominated vegetation associated with an extremely weak monsoon occurred at ca. 12.2-11.8 kyr BP during the Younger Dryas interstadial. A major increase in humidity is inferred from the development of Artemisia-dominated steppe and wet alpine meadows with Gentianaceae after the late glacial/early Holocene transition in response to the strengthening of the summer monsoon. Monsoonal influence reached maximum activity in the Tso Kar region between ca. 10.9 and 9.2 kyr BP. The subsequent development of the alpine meadow, steppe and desert-steppe vegetation points to a moderate reduction in the moisture supply, which can be linked to the weaker summer monsoon and the accompanying enhancement of the winter westerly flow from ca. 9.2 to 4.8 kyr BP. The highest water levels of Tso Kar around 8 kyr BP probably reflect combined effect of both monsoonal and westerly influence in the region. An abrupt shift towards aridity in the Tso Kar region occurred after ca. 4.8 kyr BP, as evidenced by an expansion of Chenopodiaceae-dominated desert-steppe. Low pollen influx values registered ca. 2.8-1.3 kyr BP suggest scarce vegetation cover and unfavourable growing conditions likely associated with a further weakening of the Indian Monsoon.

Sr/Ca, U/Ca, and stable isotope data and bimonthly records of Ogasawara coral core OGA-02-1

Instrumental climate observations provide robust records of global land and ocean temperatures during the twentieth century. Unlike for temperature, continuous salinity observations in the surface ocean are scarce prior to 1970, and the magnitude of salinity changes during the twentieth century is largely unknown. Surface ocean salinity is a major component in climate dynamics, as it influences ocean circulation and water mass formation. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of salinity variations in the surface waters of the western subtropical North Pacific Ocean since 1873, based on bimonthly records of d18O, Sr/Ca, and U/Ca in a coral from the Ogasawara Islands. The reconstruction indicates that an abrupt regime shift toward fresher surface ocean conditions occurred between 1905 and 1910. Observational atmospheric data suggest that the abrupt freshening was associated with a weakening of the winds that drive the Kuroshio Current system and the associated subtropical gyre circulation. We note that the abrupt early-twentieth-century freshening in the western subtropical North Pacific precedes abrupt climate change in the northern North Atlantic by a few years. The potential for abrupt regime shifts in surface ocean salinity should be considered in climate predictions for the coming decades.

Age models and stable isotope analysis on sediment core Site 199-1218 from the equatorial Pacific

A 13-million-year continuous record of Oligocene climate from the equatorial Pacific reveals a pronounced "heartbeat" in the global carbon cycle and periodicity of glaciations. This heartbeat consists of 405,000-, 127,000-, and 96,000-year eccentricity cycles and 1.2-million-year obliquity cycles in periodically recurring glacial and carbon cycle events. That climate system response to intricate orbital variations suggests a fundamental interaction of the carbon cycle, solar forcing, and glacial events. Box modeling shows that the interaction of the carbon cycle and solar forcing modulates deep ocean acidity as well as the production and burial of global biomass. The pronounced 405,000-year eccentricity cycle is amplified by the long residence time of carbon in the oceans.