857 resultados para cash-in-advance
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OntoTag - A Linguistic and Ontological Annotation Model Suitable for the Semantic Web
1. INTRODUCTION. LINGUISTIC TOOLS AND ANNOTATIONS: THEIR LIGHTS AND SHADOWS
Computational Linguistics is already a consolidated research area. It builds upon the results of other two major ones, namely Linguistics and Computer Science and Engineering, and it aims at developing computational models of human language (or natural language, as it is termed in this area). Possibly, its most well-known applications are the different tools developed so far for processing human language, such as machine translation systems and speech recognizers or dictation programs.
These tools for processing human language are commonly referred to as linguistic tools. Apart from the examples mentioned above, there are also other types of linguistic tools that perhaps are not so well-known, but on which most of the other applications of Computational Linguistics are built. These other types of linguistic tools comprise POS taggers, natural language parsers and semantic taggers, amongst others. All of them can be termed linguistic annotation tools.
Linguistic annotation tools are important assets. In fact, POS and semantic taggers (and, to a lesser extent, also natural language parsers) have become critical resources for the computer applications that process natural language. Hence, any computer application that has to analyse a text automatically and ‘intelligently’ will include at least a module for POS tagging. The more an application needs to ‘understand’ the meaning of the text it processes, the more linguistic tools and/or modules it will incorporate and integrate.
However, linguistic annotation tools have still some limitations, which can be summarised as follows:
1. Normally, they perform annotations only at a certain linguistic level (that is, Morphology, Syntax, Semantics, etc.).
2. They usually introduce a certain rate of errors and ambiguities when tagging. This error rate ranges from 10 percent up to 50 percent of the units annotated for unrestricted, general texts.
3. Their annotations are most frequently formulated in terms of an annotation schema designed and implemented ad hoc.
A priori, it seems that the interoperation and the integration of several linguistic tools into an appropriate software architecture could most likely solve the limitations stated in (1). Besides, integrating several linguistic annotation tools and making them interoperate could also minimise the limitation stated in (2). Nevertheless, in the latter case, all these tools should produce annotations for a common level, which would have to be combined in order to correct their corresponding errors and inaccuracies. Yet, the limitation stated in (3) prevents both types of integration and interoperation from being easily achieved.
In addition, most high-level annotation tools rely on other lower-level annotation tools and their outputs to generate their own ones. For example, sense-tagging tools (operating at the semantic level) often use POS taggers (operating at a lower level, i.e., the morphosyntactic) to identify the grammatical category of the word or lexical unit they are annotating. Accordingly, if a faulty or inaccurate low-level annotation tool is to be used by other higher-level one in its process, the errors and inaccuracies of the former should be minimised in advance. Otherwise, these errors and inaccuracies would be transferred to (and even magnified in) the annotations of the high-level annotation tool.
Therefore, it would be quite useful to find a way to
(i) correct or, at least, reduce the errors and the inaccuracies of lower-level linguistic tools;
(ii) unify the annotation schemas of different linguistic annotation tools or, more generally speaking, make these tools (as well as their annotations) interoperate.
Clearly, solving (i) and (ii) should ease the automatic annotation of web pages by means of linguistic tools, and their transformation into Semantic Web pages (Berners-Lee, Hendler and Lassila, 2001). Yet, as stated above, (ii) is a type of interoperability problem. There again, ontologies (Gruber, 1993; Borst, 1997) have been successfully applied thus far to solve several interoperability problems. Hence, ontologies should help solve also the problems and limitations of linguistic annotation tools aforementioned.
Thus, to summarise, the main aim of the present work was to combine somehow these separated approaches, mechanisms and tools for annotation from Linguistics and Ontological Engineering (and the Semantic Web) in a sort of hybrid (linguistic and ontological) annotation model, suitable for both areas. This hybrid (semantic) annotation model should (a) benefit from the advances, models, techniques, mechanisms and tools of these two areas; (b) minimise (and even solve, when possible) some of the problems found in each of them; and (c) be suitable for the Semantic Web. The concrete goals that helped attain this aim are presented in the following section.
2. GOALS OF THE PRESENT WORK
As mentioned above, the main goal of this work was to specify a hybrid (that is, linguistically-motivated and ontology-based) model of annotation suitable for the Semantic Web (i.e. it had to produce a semantic annotation of web page contents). This entailed that the tags included in the annotations of the model had to (1) represent linguistic concepts (or linguistic categories, as they are termed in ISO/DCR (2008)), in order for this model to be linguistically-motivated; (2) be ontological terms (i.e., use an ontological vocabulary), in order for the model to be ontology-based; and (3) be structured (linked) as a collection of ontology-based
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Global analysis of logic programs can be performed effectively by the use of one of several existing efficient algorithms. However, the traditional global analysis scheme in which all the program code is known in advance and no previous analysis information is available is unsatisfactory in many situations. Incrementa! analysis of logic programs has been shown to be feasible and much more efficient in certain contexts than traditional (non-incremental) global analysis. However, incremental analysis poses additional requirements on the fixpoint algorithm used. In this work we identify these requirements, present an important class of strategies meeting the requirements, present sufficient a priori conditions for such strategies, and propose, implement, and evalúate experimentally a novel algorithm for incremental analysis based on these ideas. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm performs very efficiently in the incremental case while being comparable to (and, in some cases, considerably better than) other state-of-the-art analysis algorithms even for the non-incremental case. We argüe that our discussions, results, and experiments also shed light on some of the many tradeoffs involved in the design of algorithms for logic program analysis.
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The award of the digital dividend can consolidate auctions as the preferred mechanism for spectrum allocation. Knowing in advance an estimate of what the results of an auction with these characteristics could be would be unquestionably useful for those in charge of designing the process, even if at the end another method such as a beauty contest is chosen. This article provides a simulation of a digital dividend auction in a major-type European country. In one of the scenarios, the spectrum is not pre-allocated to any service in particular (service neutrality) while in the remaining four, blocks of spectrum are pre-allocated to DTT, mobile multimedia and mobile broadband communications. The results of the simulations reveal that the service neutrality scenario maximizes revenues for the seller and that, in general, DTT operators would seem to have fewer opportunities as the spectrum packaging is less protective for them.
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The purpose of this paper is to use the predictive control to take advantage of the future information in order to improve the reference tracking. The control attempts to increase the bandwidth of the conventional regulators by using the future information of the reference, which is supposed to be known in advance. A method for designing a controller is also proposed. A comparison in simulation with a conventional regulator is made controlling a four-phase Buck converter. Advantages and disadvantages are analyzed based on simulation results.
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One of the major problems related to cancer treatment is its recurrence. Without knowing in advance how likely the cancer will relapse, clinical practice usually recommends adjuvant treatments that have strong side effects. A way to optimize treatments is to predict the recurrence probability by analyzing a set of bio-markers. The NeoMark European project has identified a set of preliminary bio-markers for the case of oral cancer by collecting a large series of data from genomic, imaging, and clinical evidence. This heterogeneous set of data needs a proper representation in order to be stored, computed, and communicated efficiently. Ontologies are often considered the proper mean to integrate biomedical data, for their high level of formality and for the need of interoperable, universally accepted models. This paper presents the NeoMark system and how an ontology has been designed to integrate all its heterogeneous data. The system has been validated in a pilot in which data will populate the ontology and will be made public for further research.
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Max Bill es un artista lógico. Quince variaciones sobre el mismo tema 1938, podría ser el epítome de la lógica de Bill: la obra como resultado de la aplicación de leyes distintas sobre una estructura de orden. La gran diversidad formal de la obra de Max Bill –entre sus diseños de objetos, su tipografía, su pintura, su escultura o su arquitectura no parece haber líneas formales evidentes- se debe a que, para él, cada tarea es diferente y depende de medios y leyes propios. Una diversidad que podría ser erróneamente interpretada como un tipo de eclecticismo. Su conferencia en el Werkbund suizo de 1948 “belleza de la función, belleza como función”, se aleja del discurso funcionalista al proponer la belleza como una igual al resto de funciones. Cada obra ha de satisfacer la finalidad para la que ha sido construida y cumplir todas las funciones que en ella intervienen pero, además, ha de ser bella. La particularidad de Bill estriba en que, reconociéndose a sí mismo como un artista lógico, incluye la belleza como una más de las funciones a cumplir por cualquier objeto. Su famoso aforismo en relación a la configuración del entorno, desde la cuchara a la ciudad, incluiría la arquitectura en el ámbito de los objetos que han de cumplir esta nueva función. La búsqueda de la belleza será una constante en su obra. No una belleza generalizable y determinada a priori, sino una belleza entendida como predicado singular, individualizada para cada tarea. De este modo, podemos analizar, alternativamente, la belleza lógica de sus construcciones geométricas y la belleza simbólica de sus monumentos; la belleza del espacio sin fin en las superficies de una sola cara y la belleza prefabricada en sus más austeras realizaciones; la belleza elemental de sus esculturas y la belleza corriente con que sus arquitecturas se integran en la ciudad. Podemos plantearnos la posibilidad de una belleza de la estructura y entender simultáneamente la belleza cruda de su obra maestra, los edificios de la Escuela de Ulm. La búsqueda de la belleza nos ayudará a entender que, en la obra de Bill, la razón intuitiva -como modo de conocimiento- toma mayor importancia de la que parece. La forma como suma de todas las funciones en unidad armónica, será el resultado de un adecuado equilibrio entre razón lógica y razón intuitiva. ABSTRACT Max Bill is a logical artist. We could consider “Fitfteen variations on the same theme”, 1938, as the Bill’s logic epitome: the work as a result of the application of different tectonic laws on the order structure. The variety of the form in Bill’s work –his designed objects, his typography, his painting, his sculpture, or his architecture do not seem to have, between them, a direct line connecting the form- is due to the fact that, for him, each task is different and it depends on the own means and tectonic laws. A kind of diversity that could be misinterpreted like certain type of eclecticism. His lecture at the Suisse Werkbund (1948) “beauty from function and as function” is far from the functionalist speech, when proposing beauty as an equal to the rest of functions. In his own words, each work has to satisfy the purpose it was built for and fulfill all functions, and furthermore it has to be beautiful. Seeing himself as a logical artist, Bill however introduces beauty as one more of the functions that any object has to fulfill. His famous aphorism related to the environment management, from the spoon to the city, would include architecture as one more of the objects that have to satisfy this new function. The pursuit of beauty is a constant in his work. It won’t be a general beauty determined in advance, but a singular predicate, individualized for each task. That way, we can analyze, alternatively, the logical beauty of his geometric constructions and the symbolical beauty of his monuments; the beauty of the endless space in the single-sided surfaces and the prefabricated beauty in his most stricts constructions; the elemental beauty of his sculptures and the ordinary beauty with which some of his architectures are integrated in the city. We can also try the possibility of a beauty from the structure and understand, at the same time, the raw beauty of his architectural masterpiece, the buildings of the Ulm School of Design. The pursuit of beauty in Bill’s work will help us to understand that intuitive reason, as a way of knowledge, takes more importance than it seems. Form, as the harmonious expression of the sum of all functions, will be the result of an appropriate balance between logical and intuitive reason.
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During the last decades, the photovoltaic (PV) modules and their associated architectural materials are increasingly being incorporated into the construction of the building envelope such as façade, roof and skylights in the urban centers. This paper analyzes the-state-of-the-art of the PV elements and construction materials which are advertised as BIPV-products at the most important companies in the world. For this purpose 136 companies and 445 PV elements have been investigated and analyzed from a technical and architectural point of view. Also, the study has been divided into two main groups according to industry which producing the product: BIPV-Modules, which comes from the PV modules manufacturers and consist of standard PV-modules with some variations in its aesthetic features, support or dimensions; and PV-Constructions Elements, which consist of conventional constructive elements with architectural features intentionally manufactured for photovoltaic integration. In advance for conclusions, the solar tile is the most common PV-constructions element, the Si-crystalline is the most widely used PV technology, and the BIPV-urban furniture is the fastest growing market experienced in recent years. However, it is clear the absences of innovative elements which meet at the same time both the constructive purpose as the quality standards of PV technology.
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This work describes an analytical approach to determine what degree of accuracy is required in the definition of the rail vehicle models used for dynamic simulations. This way it would be possible to know in advance how the results of simulations may be altered due to the existence of errors in the creation of rolling stock models, whilst also identifying their critical parameters. This would make it possible to maximize the time available to enhance dynamic analysis and focus efforts on factors that are strictly necessary.In particular, the parameters related both to the track quality and to the rolling contact were considered in this study. With this aim, a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess their influence on the vehicle dynamic behaviour. To do this, 72 dynamic simulations were performed modifying, one at a time, the track quality, the wheel-rail friction coefficient and the equivalent conicity of both new and worn wheels. Three values were assigned to each parameter, and two wear states were considered for each type of wheel, one for new wheels and another one for reprofiled wheels.After processing the results of these simulations, it was concluded that all the parameters considered show very high influence, though the friction coefficient shows the highest influence. Therefore, it is recommended to undertake any future simulation job with measured track geometry and track irregularities, measured wheel profiles and normative values of wheel-rail friction coefficient.
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Following recent accounting and ethical scandals within the Telecom Industry like Gowex case, old cards are laid on the table: what kind of management and control are we doing on our businesses and what use do we give to the specific tools we have at our disposition? There are indicators, that on a very specific, concise and accurate manner, aside from brief, allow us to analyze and capture the complexity of a business and also they constitute an important support when making optimal decisions. These instruments or indicators show, a priori, all relevant data from a purely economic perspective, while there also exist, the possibility of including factors that are not of this nature strictly. For instance, there are indicators that take into account the customer?s satisfaction, the corporate reputation among others. Both kind of performance indicators form, together, an integral dashboard while the pure economic side of it could be considered as a basic dashboard. Based on DuPont?s methodology, we will be able to calculate the ROI (Return on Investment) of a company from the disaggregation of very useful and much needed indicators like the ROE (Return on Equity) or the ROA (Return on Assets); thereby, we will be able to get to know, to control and, hence, to optimize the company?s leverage level, its liquidity ratio or its solvency ratio, among others; as well as the yield we will be able to obtain if our decisions and management are optimal related to the bodies of assets. Bear in mind and make the most of the abovementioned management tools and indicators that we have at our disposition, allow us to act knowing our path and taking full responsibility, as well as, to obtain the maximum planned benefits, instead of leaving them to be casual. We will be able to avoid errors that can lead the company to an unfortunate and non-desirable situation and, of course, we will detect, way in advance, the actual needs of the business in terms of accounting and financial sanitation before irreversible situations are reached.
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En el sector de la edificación, las grandes constructoras comienzan a considerar aspectos medioambientales, no limitándose a lo establecido por la legislación vigente, y buscando la implementación de buenas prácticas. Si bien este hecho es una realidad para las grandes empresas constructoras, todavía falta que la gran mayoría de las empresas del sector (pequeñas y medianas) adopten ésta tendencia. En este sentido, las publicaciones y estadísticas consultadas revelan que el sector de la construcción sigue siendo el sector con menor número de Sistemas de Gestión Ambiental (SGA) certificados en comparación con otros sectores industriales, debido principalmente a las peculiaridades de su actividad. Por otra parte, el sector de la construcción genera grandes cantidades de residuos de construcción y demolición (RCD). Aunque, en los últimos años la actividad de la construcción ha disminuido, debido a la crisis económica del país, no hay que olvidar todos los problemas causados por este tipo de residuos, o mejor dicho, por su gestión. La gestión de los RCD actual está lejos de alcanzar la meta propuesta en la Directiva Marco de Residuos (DMR), la cual exige un objetivo global para el año 2020 en el que el 70% de todos los RCD generados deberán ser reciclados en los países de la UE. Pero, la realidad es que sólo el 50% de la RCD generados en la Unión Europea se recicla. Por este motivo, en los últimos años se ha producido una completa modificación del régimen jurídico aplicable a los RCD, incorporando importantes novedades a nuestro ordenamiento interno como son: la redacción de un Estudio de gestión de RCD (en fase de diseño) y un Plan de gestión de RCD (en fase de ejecución). Entre estas medidas destaca el poder conocer, con la antelación suficiente, la cantidad y el momento en que los RCD son generados, para así poder planificar la gestión más adecuada para cada categoría de RCD. Es por ello que el desarrollo de cualquier instrumento que determine la estimación de RCD así como iniciativas para su control debe ser considerado como una herramienta para dar respuestas reales en el campo de la sostenibilidad en la edificación. Por todo lo anterior, el principal objetivo de la Tesis Doctoral es mejorar la gestión actual de los RCD, a través de la elaboración e implementación en obra de un Sistema de gestión de RCD en fase de ejecución que podrá ser incluido en el Sistema de Gestión Ambiental de las empresas constructoras. Para ello, se ha identificado la actividad que más residuo genera, así como las diferentes categorías de RCD generadas durante su ejecución, a través del análisis de nueve obras de edificación de nueva planta. Posteriormente, se han determinado y evaluado, en función de su eficacia y viabilidad, veinte buenas prácticas encaminadas a reducir la generación de RCD. También, se han identificado y evaluado, en función de su coste económico, cinco alternativas de gestión para cada categoría de RCD generada. Por último, se ha desarrollado e implementado un Sistema de Gestión de RCD en una empresa de construcción real. En definitiva, el Sistema de Gestión de RCD propuesto contiene una herramienta de estimación de RCD y también proporciona una relación de buenas prácticas, según su viabilidad y eficacia, sobre los aspectos más significativos en cuanto a la gestión de RCD se refiere. El uso de este Sistema de gestión de RCD ayudará a los técnicos de la construcción en el desarrollo de los documentos "Estudio de gestión de RCD " y "Plan de gestión de RCD " - requeridos por ley -. Además, el Sistema promueve la gestión ambiental de la empresa, favoreciendo la cohesión del proceso constructivo, estableciendo responsabilidades en el ámbito de RCD y proporcionando un mayor control sobre el proceso. En conclusión, la implementación de un sistema de gestión de RCD en obra ayuda a conseguir una actividad de edificación, cuyo principal objetivo sea la generación de residuos cero. ABSTRACT Currently, in the building sector, the main construction companies are considering environmental issues, not being limited to the current legislation, and seeking the implementation of good practices. While this fact is a reality for large construction companies, still the vast majority of construction companies (small and medium enterprises) need to accept this trend. In this sense, official publications and statistics reveal that the construction sector remains with the lowest number of certified Environmental Management Systems (EMS) compared to other industrial sectors, mainly due to the peculiarities of its activity. Moreover, the construction industry in Spain generates large volumes of construction and demolition waste (CDW) achieving a low recycling rate compared to other European Union countries and to the target set for 2020. Despite the complete change in the legal regime for CDW in Spain, there are still several difficulties for their application at the construction works. Among these difficulties the following can be highlighted: onsite segregation, estimating CDW generation and managing different CDW categories. Despite these difficulties, the proper CDW management must be one of the main aspects considered by construction companies in the EMS. However, at present the EMS used in construction companies consider very superficially CDW management issues. Therefore, current EMS should go a step further and include not only procedures for managing CDW globally, but also specific procedures for each CDW category, taking into account best practices for prevention, minimization and proper CDW management in order to achieve building construction works with zero waste generation. The few scientific studies analysing EMS implementation in construction enterprises focus on studying the benefits and barriers of their implementation. Despite the drawbacks found, implementing an EMS would bring benefits such as improving the corporate image in relation to the environment, ensuring compliance with the law or reducing environmental risks. Also, the international scientific community has shown great interest in defining models to estimate in advance the CDW that will be generated during the building construction or rehabilitation works. These studies analyse the overall waste generation and its different CDW categories. However, despite the many studies found on CDW quantification, analysing its evolution throughout the construction activities is a factor that must be further studied and discussed in greater depth, as results would be of great significance when planning the CDW management. According to the scientific studies analysing the implementation of good environmental practices in construction sites, it seems that, in general, the CDW collection system is done in a decentralized manner by each subcontracted company. In addition, the corporate image generated when poor practices are done may adversely affect the company's reputation and can result in loss of contracts. Finally, although there are numerous guides and manuals of good practices for CDW management, no references have been found implementing these measures in the Environmental Management System of the construction companies. From all the above, this thesis aims to provide answers to reduce the environmental impact caused by CDW generation in building construction works, in order to get a building process with zero waste generation. In this sense, is essential to generate new knowledge in order to implement a system which can carry out comprehensive management of CDW generated onsite, at the design stage until the end of its life cycle, taking into account both technical and economic criteria. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis is to define and implement a CDW management system for residential building construction works, helping construction agents not only to manage the CDW in accordance with current legislation, but also minimizing their generation on site by applying best practices, resulting in achieving the goal of zero waste in building works.
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Análisis de múltiples grabaciones de las cuatro baladas y los cuatro scherzos de Chopin realizadas por diversos intérpretes. El objetivo del proyecto será determinar las diferencias objetivas existentes entre las diferentes ejecuciones y respecto a una partitura de referencia. OBJETIVOS: Analizar las grabaciones realizadas de obras de Chopin atendiendo a criterios objetivos como el tempo y la dinámica. MÉTODO Y FASES DEL TRABAJO: Se realizará un estudio diferencial para determinar las variaciones de parámetros objetivos existentes en las diferentes grabaciones respecto a una, que será tomada como referencia, mediante herramientas informáticas. MEDIOS: Se utilizarán versiones digitalizadas de las grabaciones y la edición crítica de Jan Ekier (National Edition) de las partituras. Para la realización del análisis se recurrirá al software SonicVisualiser desarrollado por el Centre for Digital Music (Queen Mary, University of London) en conjunto con los plugins destinados al análisis temporal y espectral disponibles. Así mismo, serán utilizadas otras herramientas desarrolladas durante el Mazurka's Project realizado por el Research Centre for the History and Analysis of Recorded Music para facilitar la visualización de datos en el presente documento. OBJETIVE: To analyze several records from Chopin’s repertoire, according to objective criteria like tempi and dynamics evolution. METHODOLOGY: A differential analysis is going to be made to determine how this criterion differs from every digitalized record to another one stabilized in advance as model. In order to do so, we’ll use software tools as well as auditions to get the best detail. MEDIA: Digital editions of the recordings and the critical edition by Prof. Jan Ekier music scores have been used. We’ve chosen the software tool SonicVisualiser developed by Centre for Digital Music (Queen Mary, University of London) in conjunction with some of the temporal and spectral plugins available for this platform as our main analysis tool. We’ve also used some other tools developed by the Research Centre for the History and Analysis of Recorded Music to appropriately display some important information in the present document.
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Esta tesis aborda metodologías para el cálculo de riesgo de colisión de satélites. La minimización del riesgo de colisión se debe abordar desde dos puntos de vista distintos. Desde el punto de vista operacional, es necesario filtrar los objetos que pueden presentar un encuentro entre todos los objetos que comparten el espacio con un satélite operacional. Puesto que las órbitas, del objeto operacional y del objeto envuelto en la colisión, no se conocen perfectamente, la geometría del encuentro y el riesgo de colisión deben ser evaluados. De acuerdo con dicha geometría o riesgo, una maniobra evasiva puede ser necesaria para evitar la colisión. Dichas maniobras implican un consumo de combustible que impacta en la capacidad de mantenimiento orbital y por tanto de la visa útil del satélite. Por tanto, el combustible necesario a lo largo de la vida útil de un satélite debe ser estimado en fase de diseño de la misión para una correcta definición de su vida útil, especialmente para satélites orbitando en regímenes orbitales muy poblados. Los dos aspectos, diseño de misión y aspectos operacionales en relación con el riesgo de colisión están abordados en esta tesis y se resumen en la Figura 3. En relación con los aspectos relacionados con el diseño de misión (parte inferior de la figura), es necesario evaluar estadísticamente las características de de la población espacial y las teorías que permiten calcular el número medio de eventos encontrados por una misión y su capacidad de reducir riesgo de colisión. Estos dos aspectos definen los procedimientos más apropiados para reducir el riesgo de colisión en fase operacional. Este aspecto es abordado, comenzando por la teoría descrita en [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 e implementada por el autor de esta tesis en la herramienta ARES [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 proporcionada por ESA para la evaluación de estrategias de evitación de colisión. Esta teoría es extendida en esta tesis para considerar las características de los datos orbitales disponibles en las fases operacionales de un satélite (sección 4.3.3). Además, esta teoría se ha extendido para considerar riesgo máximo de colisión cuando la incertidumbre de las órbitas de objetos catalogados no es conocida (como se da el caso para los TLE), y en el caso de querer sólo considerar riesgo de colisión catastrófico (sección 4.3.2.3). Dichas mejoras se han incluido en la nueva versión de ARES [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 puesta a disposición a través de [SDUP,2014]R.60. En fase operacional, los catálogos que proporcionan datos orbitales de los objetos espaciales, son procesados rutinariamente, para identificar posibles encuentros que se analizan en base a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión para proponer maniobras de evasión. Actualmente existe una única fuente de datos públicos, el catálogo TLE (de sus siglas en inglés, Two Line Elements). Además, el Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) Americano proporciona mensajes con alertas de colisión (CSM) cuando el sistema de vigilancia americano identifica un posible encuentro. En función de los datos usados en fase operacional (TLE o CSM), la estrategia de evitación puede ser diferente debido a las características de dicha información. Es preciso conocer las principales características de los datos disponibles (respecto a la precisión de los datos orbitales) para estimar los posibles eventos de colisión encontrados por un satélite a lo largo de su vida útil. En caso de los TLE, cuya precisión orbital no es proporcionada, la información de precisión orbital derivada de un análisis estadístico se puede usar también en el proceso operacional así como en el diseño de la misión. En caso de utilizar CSM como base de las operaciones de evitación de colisiones, se conoce la precisión orbital de los dos objetos involucrados. Estas características se han analizado en detalle, evaluando estadísticamente las características de ambos tipos de datos. Una vez concluido dicho análisis, se ha analizado el impacto de utilizar TLE o CSM en las operaciones del satélite (sección 5.1). Este análisis se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. En dicho análisis, se proporcionan recomendaciones para distintas misiones (tamaño del satélite y régimen orbital) en relación con las estrategias de evitación de colisión para reducir el riesgo de colisión de manera significativa. Por ejemplo, en el caso de un satélite en órbita heliosíncrona en régimen orbital LEO, el valor típico del ACPL que se usa de manera extendida es 10-4. Este valor no es adecuado cuando los esquemas de evitación de colisión se realizan sobre datos TLE. En este caso, la capacidad de reducción de riesgo es prácticamente nula (debido a las grandes incertidumbres de los datos TLE) incluso para tiempos cortos de predicción. Para conseguir una reducción significativa del riesgo, sería necesario usar un ACPL en torno a 10-6 o inferior, produciendo unas 10 alarmas al año por satélite (considerando predicciones a un día) o 100 alarmas al año (con predicciones a tres días). Por tanto, la principal conclusión es la falta de idoneidad de los datos TLE para el cálculo de eventos de colisión. Al contrario, usando los datos CSM, debido a su mejor precisión orbital, se puede obtener una reducción significativa del riesgo con ACPL en torno a 10-4 (considerando 3 días de predicción). Incluso 5 días de predicción pueden ser considerados con ACPL en torno a 10-5. Incluso tiempos de predicción más largos se pueden usar (7 días) con reducción del 90% del riesgo y unas 5 alarmas al año (en caso de predicciones de 5 días, el número de maniobras se mantiene en unas 2 al año). La dinámica en GEO es diferente al caso LEO y hace que el crecimiento de las incertidumbres orbitales con el tiempo de propagación sea menor. Por el contrario, las incertidumbres derivadas de la determinación orbital son peores que en LEO por las diferencias en las capacidades de observación de uno y otro régimen orbital. Además, se debe considerar que los tiempos de predicción considerados para LEO pueden no ser apropiados para el caso de un satélite GEO (puesto que tiene un periodo orbital mayor). En este caso usando datos TLE, una reducción significativa del riesgo sólo se consigue con valores pequeños de ACPL, produciendo una alarma por año cuando los eventos de colisión se predicen a un día vista (tiempo muy corto para implementar maniobras de evitación de colisión).Valores más adecuados de ACPL se encuentran entre 5•10-8 y 10-7, muy por debajo de los valores usados en las operaciones actuales de la mayoría de las misiones GEO (de nuevo, no se recomienda en este régimen orbital basar las estrategias de evitación de colisión en TLE). Los datos CSM permiten una reducción de riesgo apropiada con ACPL entre 10-5 y 10-4 con tiempos de predicción cortos y medios (10-5 se recomienda para predicciones a 5 o 7 días). El número de maniobras realizadas sería una en 10 años de misión. Se debe notar que estos cálculos están realizados para un satélite de unos 2 metros de radio. En el futuro, otros sistemas de vigilancia espacial (como el programa SSA de la ESA), proporcionarán catálogos adicionales de objetos espaciales con el objetivo de reducir el riesgo de colisión de los satélites. Para definir dichos sistemas de vigilancia, es necesario identificar las prestaciones del catalogo en función de la reducción de riesgo que se pretende conseguir. Las características del catálogo que afectan principalmente a dicha capacidad son la cobertura (número de objetos incluidos en el catalogo, limitado principalmente por el tamaño mínimo de los objetos en función de las limitaciones de los sensores utilizados) y la precisión de los datos orbitales (derivada de las prestaciones de los sensores en relación con la precisión de las medidas y la capacidad de re-observación de los objetos). El resultado de dicho análisis (sección 5.2) se ha publicado en una revista especializada [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. Este análisis no estaba inicialmente previsto durante la tesis, y permite mostrar como la teoría descrita en esta tesis, inicialmente definida para facilitar el diseño de misiones (parte superior de la figura 1) se ha extendido y se puede aplicar para otros propósitos como el dimensionado de un sistema de vigilancia espacial (parte inferior de la figura 1). La principal diferencia de los dos análisis se basa en considerar las capacidades de catalogación (precisión y tamaño de objetos observados) como una variable a modificar en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia), siendo fijas en el caso de un diseño de misión. En el caso de las salidas generadas en el análisis, todos los aspectos calculados en un análisis estadístico de riesgo de colisión son importantes para diseño de misión (con el objetivo de calcular la estrategia de evitación y la cantidad de combustible a utilizar), mientras que en el caso de un diseño de un sistema de vigilancia, los aspectos más importantes son el número de maniobras y falsas alarmas (fiabilidad del sistema) y la capacidad de reducción de riesgo (efectividad del sistema). Adicionalmente, un sistema de vigilancia espacial debe ser caracterizado por su capacidad de evitar colisiones catastróficas (evitando así in incremento dramático de la población de basura espacial), mientras que el diseño de una misión debe considerar todo tipo de encuentros, puesto que un operador está interesado en evitar tanto las colisiones catastróficas como las letales. Del análisis de las prestaciones (tamaño de objetos a catalogar y precisión orbital) requeridas a un sistema de vigilancia espacial se concluye que ambos aspectos han de ser fijados de manera diferente para los distintos regímenes orbitales. En el caso de LEO se hace necesario observar objetos de hasta 5cm de radio, mientras que en GEO se rebaja este requisito hasta los 100 cm para cubrir las colisiones catastróficas. La razón principal para esta diferencia viene de las diferentes velocidades relativas entre los objetos en ambos regímenes orbitales. En relación con la precisión orbital, ésta ha de ser muy buena en LEO para poder reducir el número de falsas alarmas, mientras que en regímenes orbitales más altos se pueden considerar precisiones medias. En relación con los aspectos operaciones de la determinación de riesgo de colisión, existen varios algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo entre dos objetos espaciales. La Figura 2 proporciona un resumen de los casos en cuanto a algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión y como se abordan en esta tesis. Normalmente se consideran objetos esféricos para simplificar el cálculo de riesgo (caso A). Este caso está ampliamente abordado en la literatura y no se analiza en detalle en esta tesis. Un caso de ejemplo se proporciona en la sección 4.2. Considerar la forma real de los objetos (caso B) permite calcular el riesgo de una manera más precisa. Un nuevo algoritmo es definido en esta tesis para calcular el riesgo de colisión cuando al menos uno de los objetos se considera complejo (sección 4.4.2). Dicho algoritmo permite calcular el riesgo de colisión para objetos formados por un conjunto de cajas, y se ha presentado en varias conferencias internacionales. Para evaluar las prestaciones de dicho algoritmo, sus resultados se han comparado con un análisis de Monte Carlo que se ha definido para considerar colisiones entre cajas de manera adecuada (sección 4.1.2.3), pues la búsqueda de colisiones simples aplicables para objetos esféricos no es aplicable a este caso. Este análisis de Monte Carlo se considera la verdad a la hora de calcular los resultados del algoritmos, dicha comparativa se presenta en la sección 4.4.4. En el caso de satélites que no se pueden considerar esféricos, el uso de un modelo de la geometría del satélite permite descartar eventos que no son colisiones reales o estimar con mayor precisión el riesgo asociado a un evento. El uso de estos algoritmos con geometrías complejas es más relevante para objetos de dimensiones grandes debido a las prestaciones de precisión orbital actuales. En el futuro, si los sistemas de vigilancia mejoran y las órbitas son conocidas con mayor precisión, la importancia de considerar la geometría real de los satélites será cada vez más relevante. La sección 5.4 presenta un ejemplo para un sistema de grandes dimensiones (satélite con un tether). Adicionalmente, si los dos objetos involucrados en la colisión tienen velocidad relativa baja (y geometría simple, Caso C en la Figura 2), la mayor parte de los algoritmos no son aplicables requiriendo implementaciones dedicadas para este caso particular. En esta tesis, uno de estos algoritmos presentado en la literatura [Patera, 2001]R.26 se ha analizado para determinar su idoneidad en distintos tipos de eventos (sección 4.5). La evaluación frete a un análisis de Monte Carlo se proporciona en la sección 4.5.2. Tras este análisis, se ha considerado adecuado para abordar las colisiones de baja velocidad. En particular, se ha concluido que el uso de algoritmos dedicados para baja velocidad son necesarios en función del tamaño del volumen de colisión proyectado en el plano de encuentro (B-plane) y del tamaño de la incertidumbre asociada al vector posición entre los dos objetos. Para incertidumbres grandes, estos algoritmos se hacen más necesarios pues la duración del intervalo en que los elipsoides de error de los dos objetos pueden intersecar es mayor. Dicho algoritmo se ha probado integrando el algoritmo de colisión para objetos con geometrías complejas. El resultado de dicho análisis muestra que este algoritmo puede ser extendido fácilmente para considerar diferentes tipos de algoritmos de cálculo de riesgo de colisión (sección 4.5.3). Ambos algoritmos, junto con el método Monte Carlo para geometrías complejas, se han implementado en la herramienta operacional de la ESA CORAM, que es utilizada para evaluar el riesgo de colisión en las actividades rutinarias de los satélites operados por ESA [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. Este hecho muestra el interés y relevancia de los algoritmos desarrollados para la mejora de las operaciones de los satélites. Dichos algoritmos han sido presentados en varias conferencias internacionales [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1. ABSTRACT This document addresses methodologies for computation of the collision risk of a satellite. Two different approaches need to be considered for collision risk minimisation. On an operational basis, it is needed to perform a sieve of possible objects approaching the satellite, among all objects sharing the space with an operational satellite. As the orbits of both, satellite and the eventual collider, are not perfectly known but only estimated, the miss-encounter geometry and the actual risk of collision shall be evaluated. In the basis of the encounter geometry or the risk, an eventual manoeuvre may be required to avoid the conjunction. Those manoeuvres will be associated to a reduction in the fuel for the mission orbit maintenance, and thus, may reduce the satellite operational lifetime. Thus, avoidance manoeuvre fuel budget shall be estimated, at mission design phase, for a better estimation of mission lifetime, especially for those satellites orbiting in very populated orbital regimes. These two aspects, mission design and operational collision risk aspects, are summarised in Figure 3, and covered along this thesis. Bottom part of the figure identifies the aspects to be consider for the mission design phase (statistical characterisation of the space object population data and theory computing the mean number of events and risk reduction capability) which will define the most appropriate collision avoidance approach at mission operational phase. This part is covered in this work by starting from the theory described in [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2006]T.14 and implemented by this author in ARES tool [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2004b]T.15 provided by ESA for evaluation of collision avoidance approaches. This methodology has been now extended to account for the particular features of the available data sets in operational environment (section 4.3.3). Additionally, the formulation has been extended to allow evaluating risk computation approached when orbital uncertainty is not available (like the TLE case) and when only catastrophic collisions are subject to study (section 4.3.2.3). These improvements to the theory have been included in the new version of ESA ARES tool [Domínguez-González and Sánchez-Ortiz, 2012b]T.12 and available through [SDUP,2014]R.60. At the operation phase, the real catalogue data will be processed on a routine basis, with adequate collision risk computation algorithms to propose conjunction avoidance manoeuvre optimised for every event. The optimisation of manoeuvres in an operational basis is not approached along this document. Currently, American Two Line Element (TLE) catalogue is the only public source of data providing orbits of objects in space to identify eventual conjunction events. Additionally, Conjunction Summary Message (CSM) is provided by Joint Space Operation Center (JSpOC) when the American system identifies a possible collision among satellites and debris. Depending on the data used for collision avoidance evaluation, the conjunction avoidance approach may be different. The main features of currently available data need to be analysed (in regards to accuracy) in order to perform estimation of eventual encounters to be found along the mission lifetime. In the case of TLE, as these data is not provided with accuracy information, operational collision avoidance may be also based on statistical accuracy information as the one used in the mission design approach. This is not the case for CSM data, which includes the state vector and orbital accuracy of the two involved objects. This aspect has been analysed in detail and is depicted in the document, evaluating in statistical way the characteristics of both data sets in regards to the main aspects related to collision avoidance. Once the analysis of data set was completed, investigations on the impact of those features in the most convenient avoidance approaches have been addressed (section 5.1). This analysis is published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015b]T.3. The analysis provides recommendations for different mission types (satellite size and orbital regime) in regards to the most appropriate collision avoidance approach for relevant risk reduction. The risk reduction capability is very much dependent on the accuracy of the catalogue utilized to identify eventual collisions. Approaches based on CSM data are recommended against the TLE based approach. Some approaches based on the maximum risk associated to envisaged encounters are demonstrated to report a very large number of events, which makes the approach not suitable for operational activities. Accepted Collision Probability Levels are recommended for the definition of the avoidance strategies for different mission types. For example for the case of a LEO satellite in the Sun-synchronous regime, the typically used ACPL value of 10-4 is not a suitable value for collision avoidance schemes based on TLE data. In this case the risk reduction capacity is almost null (due to the large uncertainties associated to TLE data sets, even for short time-to-event values). For significant reduction of risk when using TLE data, ACPL on the order of 10-6 (or lower) seems to be required, producing about 10 warnings per year and mission (if one-day ahead events are considered) or 100 warnings per year (for three-days ahead estimations). Thus, the main conclusion from these results is the lack of feasibility of TLE for a proper collision avoidance approach. On the contrary, for CSM data, and due to the better accuracy of the orbital information when compared with TLE, ACPL on the order of 10-4 allows to significantly reduce the risk. This is true for events estimated up to 3 days ahead. Even 5 days ahead events can be considered, but ACPL values down to 10-5 should be considered in such case. Even larger prediction times can be considered (7 days) for risk reduction about 90%, at the cost of larger number of warnings up to 5 events per year, when 5 days prediction allows to keep the manoeuvre rate in 2 manoeuvres per year. Dynamics of the GEO orbits is different to that in LEO, impacting on a lower increase of orbits uncertainty along time. On the contrary, uncertainties at short prediction times at this orbital regime are larger than those at LEO due to the differences in observation capabilities. Additionally, it has to be accounted that short prediction times feasible at LEO may not be appropriate for a GEO mission due to the orbital period being much larger at this regime. In the case of TLE data sets, significant reduction of risk is only achieved for small ACPL values, producing about a warning event per year if warnings are raised one day in advance to the event (too short for any reaction to be considered). Suitable ACPL values would lay in between 5•10-8 and 10-7, well below the normal values used in current operations for most of the GEO missions (TLE-based strategies for collision avoidance at this regime are not recommended). On the contrary, CSM data allows a good reduction of risk with ACPL in between 10-5 and 10-4 for short and medium prediction times. 10-5 is recommended for prediction times of five or seven days. The number of events raised for a suitable warning time of seven days would be about one in a 10-year mission. It must be noted, that these results are associated to a 2 m radius spacecraft, impact of the satellite size are also analysed within the thesis. In the future, other Space Situational Awareness Systems (SSA, ESA program) may provide additional catalogues of objects in space with the aim of reducing the risk. It is needed to investigate which are the required performances of those catalogues for allowing such risk reduction. The main performance aspects are coverage (objects included in the catalogue, mainly limited by a minimum object size derived from sensor performances) and the accuracy of the orbital data to accurately evaluate the conjunctions (derived from sensor performance in regards to object observation frequency and accuracy). The results of these investigations (section 5.2) are published in a peer-reviewed journal [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015a]T.2. This aspect was not initially foreseen as objective of the thesis, but it shows how the theory described in the thesis, initially defined for mission design in regards to avoidance manoeuvre fuel allocation (upper part of figure 1), is extended and serves for additional purposes as dimensioning a Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) system (bottom part of figure below). The main difference between the two approaches is the consideration of the catalogue features as part of the theory which are not modified (for the satellite mission design case) instead of being an input for the analysis (in the case of the SST design). In regards to the outputs, all the features computed by the statistical conjunction analysis are of importance for mission design (with the objective of proper global avoidance strategy definition and fuel allocation), whereas for the case of SST design, the most relevant aspects are the manoeuvre and false alarm rates (defining a reliable system) and the Risk Reduction capability (driving the effectiveness of the system). In regards to the methodology for computing the risk, the SST system shall be driven by the capacity of providing the means to avoid catastrophic conjunction events (avoiding the dramatic increase of the population), whereas the satellite mission design should consider all type of encounters, as the operator is interested on avoiding both lethal and catastrophic collisions. From the analysis of the SST features (object coverage and orbital uncertainty) for a reliable system, it is concluded that those two characteristics are to be imposed differently for the different orbital regimes, as the population level is different depending on the orbit type. Coverage values range from 5 cm for very populated LEO regime up to 100 cm in the case of GEO region. The difference on this requirement derives mainly from the relative velocity of the encounters at those regimes. Regarding the orbital knowledge of the catalogues, very accurate information is required for objects in the LEO region in order to limit the number of false alarms, whereas intermediate orbital accuracy can be considered for higher orbital regimes. In regards to the operational collision avoidance approaches, several collision risk algorithms are used for evaluation of collision risk of two pair of objects. Figure 2 provides a summary of the different collision risk algorithm cases and indicates how they are covered along this document. The typical case with high relative velocity is well covered in literature for the case of spherical objects (case A), with a large number of available algorithms, that are not analysed in detailed in this work. Only a sample case is provided in section 4.2. If complex geometries are considered (Case B), a more realistic risk evaluation can be computed. New approach for the evaluation of risk in the case of complex geometries is presented in this thesis (section 4.4.2), and it has been presented in several international conferences. The developed algorithm allows evaluating the risk for complex objects formed by a set of boxes. A dedicated Monte Carlo method has also been described (section 4.1.2.3) and implemented to allow the evaluation of the actual collisions among a large number of simulation shots. This Monte Carlo runs are considered the truth for comparison of the algorithm results (section 4.4.4). For spacecrafts that cannot be considered as spheres, the consideration of the real geometry of the objects may allow to discard events which are not real conjunctions, or estimate with larger reliability the risk associated to the event. This is of particular importance for the case of large spacecrafts as the uncertainty in positions of actual catalogues does not reach small values to make a difference for the case of objects below meter size. As the tracking systems improve and the orbits of catalogued objects are known more precisely, the importance of considering actual shapes of the objects will become more relevant. The particular case of a very large system (as a tethered satellite) is analysed in section 5.4. Additionally, if the two colliding objects have low relative velocity (and simple geometries, case C in figure above), the most common collision risk algorithms fail and adequate theories need to be applied. In this document, a low relative velocity algorithm presented in the literature [Patera, 2001]R.26 is described and evaluated (section 4.5). Evaluation through comparison with Monte Carlo approach is provided in section 4.5.2. The main conclusion of this analysis is the suitability of this algorithm for the most common encounter characteristics, and thus it is selected as adequate for collision risk estimation. Its performances are evaluated in order to characterise when it can be safely used for a large variety of encounter characteristics. In particular, it is found that the need of using dedicated algorithms depend on both the size of collision volume in the B-plane and the miss-distance uncertainty. For large uncertainties, the need of such algorithms is more relevant since for small uncertainties the encounter duration where the covariance ellipsoids intersect is smaller. Additionally, its application for the case of complex satellite geometries is assessed (case D in figure above) by integrating the developed algorithm in this thesis with Patera’s formulation for low relative velocity encounters. The results of this analysis show that the algorithm can be easily extended for collision risk estimation process suitable for complex geometry objects (section 4.5.3). The two algorithms, together with the Monte Carlo method, have been implemented in the operational tool CORAM for ESA which is used for the evaluation of collision risk of ESA operated missions, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013a]T.11. This fact shows the interest and relevance of the developed algorithms for improvement of satellite operations. The algorithms have been presented in several international conferences, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2013b]T.9, [Pulido, 2014]T.7,[Grande-Olalla, 2013]T.10, [Pulido, 2014]T.5, [Sánchez-Ortiz, 2015c]T.1.
Resumo:
El objetivo de la tesis es estudiar la bondad del almacenamiento de energía en hidrógeno para minorar los desvíos de energía respecto a su previsión de parques eólicos y huertas solares. Para ello se ha partido de datos de energías horarias previstas con 24 h de antelación y la energía real generada. Se ha procedido a dimensionar la planta de hidrógeno, a partir de una modelización de la operación de la misma, teniendo siempre como objetivo la limitación de los desvíos. Posteriormente, se ha procedido a simular la operación de la planta con dos objetivos en mente, uno limitar los desvíos y por otro lado operar la planta como una central de bombeo, generando hidrógeno en horas valle y generando electricidad en horas punta. Las dos simulaciones se han aplicado a tres parques eólicos de diferentes potencias, y a una huerta solar fotovoltaica. Se ha realizado un estudio económico para determinar la viabilidad de las plantas dimensionadas, obteniendo como resultado que no son viables a día de hoy y con la estimación de precios considerada, necesitando disminuir considerablemente los costes, dependiendo fuertemente de la bondad de los métodos de previsión de viento. Por último se ha estudiado la influencia de la disminución de los desvíos generados sobre una red tipo de 30 nudos, obteniendo como resultado, que si bien no disminuyen sensiblemente los extra costes generados en regulación, sí que mejora la penetración de las energías renovables no despachables en la red. Se observa disminuyen los vertidos eólicos cuando se usa la planta de hidrógeno. ABSTRACT The aim of this thesis is to study the benefit of hydrogen energy storage to minimize energy deviations of Wind Power and Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Plants compared to its forecast. To achieve this goal, first of all we have started with hourly energy data provided 24 h in advance (scheduled energy), and real generation (measured energy). Secondly, It has been sized the hydrogen plant, from a modeling of its working mode, always keeping the goal in mind of limiting energy imbalances. Subsequently, It have been simulated the plant working mode following two goals, one, to limit energy imbalances and secondly to operate the plant as a pumping power plant, generating hydrogen-in valley hours and generating electricity at peak hours. The two simulations have been applied to three wind power plants with different installed power capacities, and a photovoltaic solar power plant. It has been done an economic analysis in order to determine the viability of this sized plants, turning out not viable plants today with the estimated prices considered, requiring significantly lower costs, depending heavily on the reliability of the Wind Power forecast methods. Finally, It has been studied the influence of decreasing measured imbalances (of energy) in a 30 grid node, resulting that, while it not reduces significantly the extra costs generated by reserve power, it does improve the penetration of non-manageable renewable energy on the grid, by reducing the curtailments of power of these plants.
Resumo:
Las desviaciones de tiempo y coste constituyen un fenómeno muy frecuente en la industria de la construcción. Existe un gran número de proyectos que no se terminan en el plazo y el tiempo estipulados, y esto parece que se ha convertido más en la norma que en la excepción. Los proyectos de construcción son heterogéneos por naturaleza y pueden llegar a ser muy complejos, involucrando numerosos procesos y expuestos a infinidad de variables y factores que pueden afectar el cumplimiento de los objetivos de tiempo y coste. Las desviaciones de tiempo y coste no favorecen ni al promotor ni al resto de equipos participantes del proyecto, dando lugar además la mayoría de las veces a situaciones de conflictos y relaciones adversas entre participantes del proyecto. Es por todo ello que surge la necesidad de atender a una estrategia de gestión de riesgos eficaz, como herramienta esencial de la gestión de proyectos para contribuir al éxito de los mismos. Es preciso considerar también que los proyectos de construcción pueden presentar distintas características específicas según el tipo de proyecto de que se traten. El presente trabajo de investigación estudia concretamente los proyectos de edificios de uso hotelero, los cuales pueden presentar estructuras organizativas muy diversas, incluyendo numerosos agentes participantes y procesos que a su vez se desarrollan en un entorno que ya es muy dinámico por su propia naturaleza. En el sector hotelero el cumplimiento de los objetivos de tiempo y coste del proyecto son especialmente importantes ya que cualquier retraso en la fecha de apertura estimada del hotel se traducirá en pérdidas importantes de negocio y cuota de mercado y podrá llevar asociadas también repercusiones importantes en otros aspectos relacionados con la operativa hotelera. Si se conocen las causas que originan tales desviaciones de tiempo y coste, se podrán establecer las correspondientes medidas de actuación para anticiparnos a ellas y que no se produzcan, siendo ésta la base del propósito de esta tesis. Así, la identificación de riesgos supone el primer paso para una gestión de riesgos eficaz, fundamental para contribuir al éxito de un proyecto. El contexto de la investigación delimita como lugar geográfico de estudio España, donde el sector turístico constituye un motor importante de la economía y en el que la eficiencia y competitividad debe estar reflejada también en el proceso del proyecto edificatorio, minimizándose los retrasos y sobrecostes. El presente estudio investiga por tanto los factores de riesgo más críticos que dan lugar a desviaciones de tiempo y coste en proyectos de edificios de uso hotelero en España. A partir del análisis de la literatura existente se genera una propuesta de identificación de factores de riesgo, que se analiza mediante un análisis cualitativo basado en la opinión de expertos y estudio de casos específicos. De los resultados de este análisis se determinan los niveles críticos para cada factor de riesgo, se comparan además las percepciones de niveles de riesgo según distintos tipos de grupos profesionales, y se establece un procedimiento en cuanto a prioridad de acción de respuesta. Así, se desarrolla una propuesta final de identificación y matriz de factores de riesgo con el objetivo de que pueda servir de base a propietarios, empresas gestoras y otros participantes de proyectos hoteleros para diseñar un plan de gestión de riesgos eficaz, contribuyendo de este modo al éxito del proyecto en cuanto a cumplimiento de objetivos de tiempo y coste programados. ABSTRACT Cost and schedule overruns constitute a very frequent phenomenon in the construction industry. A large number of construction projects do not finish on the estimated time and cost, and this scenario seems to be becoming the norm rather than the exception. Construction projects are heterogeneous by nature and they can become very complex as they involve a large number of processes which are subject to many variables and factors that may give rise to time and cost overruns. Time and cost overruns cause dissatisfaction not only to owners but all stakeholders involved in the project, leading most of the times to undesirable situations of conflicts and adversarial relationships between project participants. Hence, it becomes necessary to adopt an effective risk management strategy as an essential part of project management in order to achieve project success. Construction projects may have different characteristics depending on the type of project. This research specifically focuses on hotel construction projects. Hotel projects usually involve complex organizational structures, including many project participants and processes which develop in an environment that is already dynamic by nature. In this type of projects, the achievement of time and cost objectives is particularly important, as any delay of the hotel opening date will result in significant loss of business and market share and may also involve key important implications related to hotel operations. If the risk factors that lead to time and cost overrun are known in advance, preventive actions could be established in order to avoid them, so that time and cost overruns are minimized. This constitutes the aim of this research, being risk identification the first step of any effective risk management strategy for project success. The context of this research is focused on a particular geographical area, being this Spain. Tourism in Spain is a major contributor to the Spanish economy, and efficiency and competiveness should also be reflected in the building processes of the hotel industry, where delays and cost overruns should be kept to the minimum. The aim of this study is to explore the most critical risk factors leading to time and cost overruns in hotel construction projects in Spain. From the analysis of the literature review, a proposal of a risk identification framework is developed, which will be further analyzed by a qualitative assessment based on expert opinions and the study of specific case studies. From the results of this assessment, the levels of risk criticality are determined for the identified factors, a comparison of the perceptions of risk levels among different groups of respondents is also carried out, and a procedure for prioritization of factors in terms of needs of response is established. A final proposal of a risk register matrix framework is then developed in order to assist hotel owners, project management companies or other hotel project stakeholders, and provide them with a base to design their own specific risk management plans, contributing in this way to project success with regards to the achievement of cost and time objectives.
Resumo:
El buen dimensionado de los elementos de evacuación de los edificios es fundamental para conseguir una evacuación segura de los ocupantes en un evento accidental de fuego. Para ello es necesario conocer previamente la asignación de personas que previsiblemente los van a utilizar en caso de emergencia. En el presente trabajo de investigación, se desarrolla un método de cálculo que permite abarcar todos los escenarios posibles de bloqueos en caso de incendio permitiendo así conocer de antemano las distribuciones de personas en las vías de evacuación de manera conservadora. Dicho método de cálculo es aplicable tanto la justificación del cumplimiento de CTE DB-SI3, como en cualquier reglamentación internacional de protección contra incendios. ABSTRACT A good dimensioning of egress and elements of evacuation in buildings is essential for a safe evacuation of occupants in event of accidental fire. This requires prior knowledge of allocated number of people that will use them in an emergency. In this research, a calculation method is developed to cover every possible scenario of unavailable exit in case of fire, thereby allowing to know in advance the distributions of people on the escape routes and conservatively. This calculation method is applicable to both the confirmation of compliance with Spanish regulations, as in any international fire code.
