When does information about causal structure improve statistical reasoning?

Base rate neglect on the mammography problem can be overcome by explicitly presenting a causal basis for the typically vague false-positive statistic. One account of this causal facilitation effect is that people make probabilistic judgements over intuitive causal models parameterized with the evidence in the problem. Poorly defined or difficult-to-map evidence interferes with this process, leading to errors in statistical reasoning. To assess whether the construction of parameterized causal representations is an intuitive or deliberative process, in Experiment 1 we combined a secondary load paradigm with manipulations of the presence or absence of an alternative cause in typical statistical reasoning problems. We found limited effects of a secondary load, no evidence that information about an alternative cause improves statistical reasoning, but some evidence that it reduces base rate neglect errors. In Experiments 2 and 3 where we did not impose a load, we observed causal facilitation effects. The amount of Bayesian responding in the causal conditions was impervious to the presence of a load (Experiment 1) and to the precise statistical information that was presented (Experiment 3). However, we found less Bayesian responding in the causal condition than previously reported. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings and the suggestion that there may be population effects in the accuracy of statistical reasoning.

Whose statistical reasoning is improved by information about causal structure?

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430–450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples’ errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Causal knowledge and the development of inductive reasoning

We explored the development of sensitivity to causal relations in children’s inductive reasoning. Children (5-, 8-, and 12-year-olds) and adults were given trials in which they decided whether a property known to be possessed by members of one category was also possessed by members of (a) a taxonomically related category or (b) a causally related category. The direction of the causal link was either predictive (prey → predator) or diagnostic (predator → prey), and the property that participants reasoned about established either a taxonomic or causal context. There was a causal asymmetry effect across all age groups, with more causal choices when the causal link was predictive than when it was diagnostic. Furthermore, context-sensitive causal reasoning showed a curvilinear development, with causal choices being most frequent for 8-year-olds regardless of context. Causal inductions decreased thereafter because 12-year-olds and adults made more taxonomic choices when reasoning in the taxonomic context. These findings suggest that simple causal relations may often be the default knowledge structure in young children’s inductive reasoning, that sensitivity to causal direction is present early on, and that children over-generalize their causal knowledge when reasoning.

The effect of level of straw bale provision on the behaviour and leg health of commercial broiler chickens

This study aimed to assess the effect of the number of straw bales (SBs) provided on the behaviour and leg health of commercial broiler chickens. Houses containing ~23 000 broiler chickens were assigned to one of two treatments: (1) access to 30 SBs per house, ‘30SB’ or (2) access to 45 SB per house, ‘45SB’. This equated to bale densities of 1 bale/44 m2 and 1 bale/29 m2 of floor space within houses, respectively. Treatments were applied in one of two houses on a commercial farm, and were replicated over six production cycles. Both houses had windows and were also artificially lit. Behaviour was observed in weeks 3 to5 of the cycle. This involved observations of general behaviour and activity, gait scores (0: perfect to 5: unable to walk) and latency to lie (measured in seconds from when a bird had been encouraged to stand). Production performance and environmental parameters were also measured. SB density had no significant effect on activity levels (P>0.05) or walking ability (P>0.05). However, the average latency to lie was greater in 30SB birds compared with 45SB birds (P<0.05). The incidence of hock burn and podo dermatitis, average BW at slaughter and levels of mortality and culling were unaffected by SB density (P>0.05). The results from this study suggest that increasing SB levels from 1 bale/44 m2 to 1 bale/29 m2 floor space does not lead to significant improvements in the welfare of commercial broiler chickens in windowed houses.

Effect of controlled periodic-based illumination on the photonic efficiency of photocatalytic degradation of methyl orange

The use of controlled periodic illumination with UV LEDs for enhancing photonic efficiency of photocatalytic decomposition processes in water has been investigated using methyl orange as a model compound. The impact of the length of light and dark time periods (T _ON/T _OFF times) on photodegradation and photonic efficiency using a UV LED-illuminated photoreactor has been studied. The results have shown an inverse dependency of the photonic efficiency on duty cycle and a very little effect on T _ON or T _OFF time periods, indicating no effect of rate-limiting steps through mass diffusion or adsorption/desorption in the reaction. For this reactor, the photonic efficiency under controlled periodic illumination (CPI) matches to that of continuous illumination, for the same average UV light intensities. Furthermore, under CPI conditions, the photonic efficiency is inversely related to the average UV light intensity in the reactor, in the millisecond time regime. This is the first study that has investigated the effect of controlled periodic illumination using ultra band gap UV LED light sources in the photocatalytic destruction of dye compounds using titanium dioxide. The results not only enhance the understanding of the effect of periodic illumination on photocatalytic processes but also provide a greater insight to the potential of these light sources in photocatalytic reactions. 

Impact of average household income and damage exposure on post-earthquake distress and functioning: A community study following the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake.

Post-traumatic stress, depression and anxiety symptoms are common outcomes following earthquakes, and may persist for months and years. This study systematically examined the impact of neighbourhood damage exposure and average household income on psychological distress and functioning in 600 residents of Christchurch, New Zealand, 4–6 months after the fatal February, 2011 earthquake. Participants were from highly affected and relatively unaffected suburbs in low, medium and high average household income areas. The assessment battery included the Acute Stress Disorder Scale, the depression module of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7), along with single item measures of substance use, earthquake damage and impact, and disruptions in daily life and relationship functioning. Controlling for age, gender and social isolation, participants from low income areas were more likely to meet diagnostic cut-offs for depression and anxiety, and have more severe anxiety symptoms. Higher probabilities of acute stress, depression and anxiety diagnoses were evident in affected versus unaffected areas, and those in affected areas had more severe acute stress, depression and anxiety symptoms. An interaction between income and earthquake effect was found for depression, with those from the low and medium income affected suburbs more depressed. Those from low income areas were more likely, post-earthquake, to start psychiatric medication and increase smoking. There was a uniform increase in alcohol use across participants. Those from the low income affected suburb had greater general and relationship disruption post-quake. Average household income and damage exposure made unique contributions to earthquake-related distress and dysfunction.

Effect of poly ethylene glycol on the mechanical and thermal properties of bioactive Poly (ε–caprolactone) melt extrudates for pharmaceutical applications

This paper investigates the effects of polyethylene glycol (PEG), on the mechanical and thermal properties of nalidixic acid/ploy ε-caprolactone (NA)/PCL blends prepared by hot melt extrusion. The blends were characterized by tensile and flexural analysis, dynamic mechanical analysis, differential scanning calorimetry, thermogravimetric analysis and X-ray diffraction. Experimental data indicated that the addition of NA caused loss of the tensile strength and toughness of PCL. Thermal analysis of the PCL showed that on addition of the thermally unstable NA, thermal degradation occurred early and was autocatalytic. However, the NA did benefit from the heat shielding provided by the PCL matrix resulting in more thermally stable NA particles. Results show that loading PEG in the PCL had a detrimental effect on the tensile strength and toughness of the blends, reducing them by 20-40%. The partial miscibility of the PCL-PEG system, causes an increase in Tg. While increases in the crystallinity is attributed to the plasticisation effect of PEG and the nucleation effect of NA. The average crystal size increased by 8% upon PEG addition.

The Effect of Seat Location in Lecture Theatres on Academic Performance

The purpose of this research study was to investigate and identify possible patterns relating to academic performance on the effects of university students self-selecting where to sit in a lecture theatre.
The key research questions are:
1. Does seating position affect student performance?
2. Do the most academically able and engaged students regularly sit at the front of lecture theatres?
Academic achievement
Preliminary results suggest significant assessment score differences between those that sit at the front and those that sit further the back. Of those that received a grade of 75%+ (Grade A) 6.67% regularly sat at the back. With the same group 46.67% regularly sat at the front. Of the group that scored less than 50% (Grade D) 0% of students regularly sat at the front. 12.50% regularly sat in the middle zones with 37.50% sitting at the back. It was also observed that the remaining numbers did not consistently sit in the same zone.

Temporal movement
There is little evidence of movement between seating zones of the Grade A group throughout the 24 week period. However there was considerable movement with the Grade D group. Although still under analysis there appears be a pattern of students in this group graduating towards the back seating positions over the course of the programme.

Engagement
The frequency of completed entries on PinPoint was also used as an indicator of engagement. With the Grade A group 75% of them regularly completed an entry whereas in the Grade D group this drops to less than 50%.
Further analysis on the attitudinal factors in relational to seating position and performance are ongoing, but preliminary results suggest that those students that scored highly in attitude tended to sit at the front and middle sections.
It would indeed appear that the more highly engaged and academically capable students voluntarily sit at the front for most lectures. Interestingly as the course progresses those who had lesser engagement and below average midterm results tend to began to sit progressively toward the back. If this is a repeatable pattern then a linear regression analysis of the seating positions and midterm results could help predict students in danger of failing.

Effect of vehicle characteristics on safety, fuel use and emissions

Nos últimos anos, o número de vítimas de acidentes de tráfego por milhões de habitantes em Portugal tem sido mais elevado do que a média da União Europeia. Ao nível nacional torna-se premente uma melhor compreensão dos dados de acidentes e sobre o efeito do veículo na gravidade do mesmo. O objetivo principal desta investigação consistiu no desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão da gravidade do acidente, para o caso de um único veículo envolvido e para caso de uma colisão, envolvendo dois veículos. Além disso, esta investigação compreendeu o desenvolvimento de uma análise integrada para avaliar o desempenho do veículo em termos de segurança, eficiência energética e emissões de poluentes. Os dados de acidentes foram recolhidos junto da Guarda Nacional Republicana Portuguesa, na área metropolitana do Porto para o período de 2006-2010. Um total de 1,374 acidentes foram recolhidos, 500 acidentes envolvendo um único veículo e 874 colisões. Para a análise da segurança, foram utilizados modelos de regressão logística. Para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o efeito das características do veículo no risco de feridos graves e/ou mortos (variável resposta definida como binária) foi explorado. Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos foram criadas duas variáveis binárias adicionais: uma para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos num dos veículos (designado como veículo V1) e outra para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no outro veículo envolvido (designado como veículo V2). Para ultrapassar o desafio e limitações relativas ao tamanho da amostra e desigualdade entre os casos analisados (apenas 5.1% de acidentes graves), foi desenvolvida uma metodologia com base numa estratégia de reamostragem e foram utilizadas 10 amostras geradas de forma aleatória e estratificada para a validação dos modelos. Durante a fase de modelação, foi analisado o efeito das características do veículo, como o peso, a cilindrada, a distância entre eixos e a idade do veículo. Para a análise do consumo de combustível e das emissões, foi aplicada a metodologia CORINAIR. Posteriormente, os dados das emissões foram modelados de forma a serem ajustados a regressões lineares. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido um indicador de análise integrada (denominado “SEG”) que proporciona um método de classificação para avaliar o desempenho do veículo ao nível da segurança rodoviária, consumos e emissões de poluentes.Face aos resultados obtidos, para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o modelo de previsão do risco de gravidade identificou a idade e a cilindrada do veículo como estatisticamente significativas para a previsão de ocorrência de feridos graves e/ou mortos, ao nível de significância de 5%. A exatidão do modelo foi de 58.0% (desvio padrão (D.P.) 3.1). Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos, ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V1, a cilindrada do veículo oposto (veículo V2) aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V1, ao nível de significância de 10%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V1 revelou um bom desempenho, com uma exatidão de 61.2% (D.P. 2.4). Ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V2, a cilindrada do veículo V1 aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V2, ao nível de significância de 5%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V2 também revelou um desempenho satisfatório, com uma exatidão de 40.5% (D.P. 2.1). Os resultados do indicador integrado SEG revelaram que os veículos mais recentes apresentam uma melhor classificação para os três domínios: segurança, consumo e emissões. Esta investigação demonstra que não existe conflito entre a componente da segurança, a eficiência energética e emissões relativamente ao desempenho dos veículos.

Laminaria ochroleuca Bachelot de la Pylaie canopy effect on intertidal understorey benthic assemblages in northern Portugal

Dissertação de mest., Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2010

Evaluation of the protective effect of Phlomis purpurea against Phytophthora cinnamomi in Fagaceae and of root metabolites involved

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências Agrárias (Proteção de Plantas), Faculdade de Ciência e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2014

The Effect of Changes to the Method of Estimating the Pollen Count from Aerobiological Samples

Pollen data have been recorded at Novi Sad in Serbia since 2000. The adopted method of producing pollen counts has been the use of five longitudinal transects that examine 19.64% of total sample surface. However, counting five transects is time consuming and so the main objective of this study is to investigate whether reducing the number to three or even two transects would have a significant effect on daily average and bi-hourly pollen concentrations, as well as the main characteristics of the pollen season and long-term trends. This study has shown that there is a loss of accuracy in daily average and bi-hourly pollen concentrations (an increase in % ERROR) as the sub-sampling area is reduced from five to three or two longitudinal transects. However, this loss of accuracy does not impact on the main characteristics of the season or long-term trends. As a result, this study can be used to justify changing the sub-sampling method used at Novi Sad from five to three longitudinal transects. The use of two longitudinal transects has been ruled out because, although quicker, the counts produced: (a) had the greatest amount of % ERROR, (b) altered the amount of influence of the independent variable on the dependent variable (the slope in regression analysis) and (c) the total sampled surface (7.86%) was less than the minimum requirement recommended by the European Aerobiology Society working group on Quality Control (at least 10% of total slide area).

Job-demand for Learning and Job-related Learning: The Moderating Effect of Need For Achievement

Purpose – The purpose of the research is to examine whether need for achievement moderates the relationship between job-demand for learning and job-related learning. Design/methodology/approach – Data were obtained from 153 participants full-time. The scales for job-demand for learning and job-related learning were developed for this research, whilst the scale for need for achievement was obtained from an external source. Hierarchical regression analysis was used in testing the hypothesized moderating effects. Findings – It was found that need for achievement moderates the relationship between job-demand for learning and job-related learning. Specifically, although job-demand for learning is correlated positively to job-related learning for both the high and the low need for achievement groups, this correlation is stronger amongst the high group. Research limitations/implications – The use of a cross-sectional design in this study prohibits inferences being drawn regarding the causal relationships between job-demand for learning, need for achievement and job-related learning. Practical implications – Job-related learning can be facilitated through increasing the need for achievement by allowing employees to establish their own learning and performance goals rather than by imposing such goals on them. The redesign of jobs to create challenges for employees is an equally important practical consideration. Originality/value – This research provides a succinct view of the relationship between an external factor, job-demand for learning, and an internal motivator, need for achievement. It emphasizes the degree to which organizations can facilitate learning through design of challenging jobs, to the extent of the individuals’ motivation.

The causal relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe

Aims: The study examines the relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe utilizing yearly time series data for the period 1967 to 2004. Study Design: Time Series Study. Place and Duration of Study: Zimbabwe, May 2011 to July 2011. Methodology: Emphasis is placed on the direction of causality and the long run and short run effect of the two types of investment on each other. The paper constructs empirical models for both private and public investment, based on the flexible accelerator theory. Private investment is found to be cointegrated with public investment. A cointergration and VEC models are employed to assess the long and short run relationship existing between public and private investment. Conclusion: The relationship between private and public investment is found to be insignificant and the direction of causality found to be unidirectional. The results support the notion that private investment precedes public investment.

Investigating the causal role of rightOFA in holistic detection of Mooney faces and objects: an fMRI-guided TMS study

Background The right occipital face area (rOFA) is known to be involved in face discrimination based on local featural information. Whether this region is involved in global, holistic stimulus processing is not known. Objective We used fMRI-guided transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to investigate whether rOFA is causally implicated in stimulus detection based on holistic processing, by the use of Mooney stimuli. Methods Two studies were carried out: In Experiment 1, participants performed a detection task involving Mooney faces and Mooney objects; Mooney stimuli lack distinguishable local features and can be detected solely via holistic processing (i.e. at a global level) with top-down guidance from previously stored representations. Experiment 2 required participants to detect shapes which are recognized via bottom-up integration of local (collinear) Gabor elements and was performed to control for specificity of rightOFA's implication in holistic detection. Results In Experiment 1, TMS over rOFA and rLO impaired detection of all stimulus categories, with no category-specific effect. In Experiment 2, shape detection was impaired when TMS was applied over rLO but not over rOFA. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that rOFA is causally implicated in the type of top-down holistic detection required by Mooney stimuli and that such role is not face-selective. In contrast, rOFA does not appear to play a causal role in in detection of shapes based on bottom-up integration of local components, demonstrating that its involvement in processing non-face stimuli is specific for holistic processing.