Integration of micro- and macroscopic models for pedestrian evacuation simulation

Simulation of pedestrian evacuations of smart buildings in emergency is a powerful tool for building analysis, dynamic evacuation planning and real-time response to the evolving state of evacuations. Macroscopic pedestrian models are low-complexity models that are and well suited to algorithmic analysis and planning, but are quite abstract. Microscopic simulation models allow for a high level of simulation detail but can be computationally intensive. By combining micro- and macro- models we can use each to overcome the shortcomings of the other and enable new capability and applications for pedestrian evacuation simulation that would not be possible with either alone. We develop the EvacSim multi-agent pedestrian simulator and procedurally generate macroscopic flow graph models of building space, integrating micro- and macroscopic approaches to simulation of the same emergency space. By “coupling” flow graph parameters to microscopic simulation results, the graph model captures some of the higher detail and fidelity of the complex microscopic simulation model. The coupled flow graph is used for analysis and prediction of the movement of pedestrians in the microscopic simulation, and investigate the performance of dynamic evacuation planning in simulated emergencies using a variety of strategies for allocation of macroscopic evacuation routes to microscopic pedestrian agents. The predictive capability of the coupled flow graph is exploited for the decomposition of microscopic simulation space into multiple future states in a scalable manner. By simulating multiple future states of the emergency in short time frames, this enables sensing strategy based on simulation scenario pattern matching which we show to achieve fast scenario matching, enabling rich, real-time feedback in emergencies in buildings with meagre sensing capabilities.

Oldest known cranium of a juvenile New World monkey (Early Miocene, Patagonia, Argentina): implications for the taxonomy and the molar eruption pattern of early platyrrhines.

A juvenile cranium of Homunculus patagonicus Ameghino, 1891a from the late Early Miocene of Santa Cruz Province (Argentina) provides the first evidence of developing cranial anatomy for any fossil platyrrhine. The specimen preserves the rostral part of the cranium with deciduous and permanent alveoli and teeth. The dental eruption sequence in the new specimen and a reassessment of eruption patterns in living and fossil platyrrhines suggest that the ancestral platyrrhine pattern of tooth replacement was for the permanent incisors to erupt before M(1), not an accelerated molar eruption (before the incisors) as recently proposed. Two genera and species of Santacrucian monkeys are now generally recognized: H. patagonicus Ameghino, 1891a and Killikaike blakei Tejedor et al., 2006. Taxonomic allocation of Santacrucian monkeys to these species encounters two obstacles: 1) the (now lost) holotype and a recently proposed neotype of H. patagonicus are mandibles from different localities and different geologic members of the Santa Cruz Formation, separated by approximately 0.7 million years, whereas the holotype of K. blakei is a rostral part of a cranium without a mandible; 2) no Santacrucian monkey with associated cranium and mandible has ever been found. Bearing in mind these uncertainties, our examination of the new specimen as well as other cranial specimens of Santacrucian monkeys establishes the overall dental and cranial similarity between the holotype of Killikaike blakei, adult cranial material previously referred to H. patagonicus, and the new juvenile specimen. This leads us to conclude that Killikaike blakei is a junior subjective synonym of H. patagonicus.

Next Generation Sequencing Reveals the Hidden Diversity of Zooplankton Assemblages

Zooplankton play an important role in our oceans, in biogeochemical cycling and providing a food source for commercially important fish larvae. However, difficulties in correctly identifying zooplankton hinder our understanding of their roles in marine ecosystem functioning, and can prevent detection of long term changes in their community structure. The advent of massively parallel next generation sequencing technology allows DNA sequence data to be recovered directly from whole community samples. Here we assess the ability of such sequencing to quantify richness and diversity of a mixed zooplankton assemblage from a productive time series site in the Western English Channel. Methodology/Principle Findings Plankton net hauls (200 µm) were taken at the Western Channel Observatory station L4 in September 2010 and January 2011. These samples were analysed by microscopy and metagenetic analysis of the 18S nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene using the 454 pyrosequencing platform. Following quality control a total of 419,041 sequences were obtained for all samples. The sequences clustered into 205 operational taxonomic units using a 97% similarity cut-off. Allocation of taxonomy by comparison with the National Centre for Biotechnology Information database identified 135 OTUs to species level, 11 to genus level and 1 to order, <2.5% of sequences were classified as unknowns. By comparison a skilled microscopic analyst was able to routinely enumerate only 58 taxonomic groups. Conclusions Metagenetics reveals a previously hidden taxonomic richness, especially for Copepoda and hard-to-identify meroplankton such as Bivalvia, Gastropoda and Polychaeta. It also reveals rare species and parasites. We conclude that Next Generation Sequencing of 18S amplicons is a powerful tool for elucidating the true diversity and species richness of zooplankton communities. While this approach allows for broad diversity assessments of plankton it may become increasingly attractive in future if sequence reference libraries of accurately identified individuals are better populated.

The validity of the MacNew Quality of Life Questionnaire in heart disease.

Background A previous review suggested that the MacNew Quality of Life Questionnaire was the most appropriate disease-specific measure of health-related quality of life among people with ischaemic heart disease. However, there is ambiguity about the allocation of items to the three factors underlying the MacNew and the factor structure has not been confirmed previously among the people in the UK. Methods The MacNew Questionnaire and the SF-36 were administered to 117 newly admitted patients to a tertiary referral centre in Northern Ireland. All patients had been diagnosed with ischaemic heart disease. Results A confirmatory factor analysis was conducted on the factor structure of the MacNew and the model was found to be an inadequate fit of the data. A quantitative and qualitative analysis of the items suggested that a five factor solution was more appropriate and this was validated by confirmatory factor analysis. This new structure also displayed strong evidence of concurrent validity when compared to the SF-36. Conclusion We recommend that researchers should submit scores obtained from items on the MacNew to secondary analyses after being grouped according to the factor structure proposed in this paper, in order to explore further the most appropriate grouping of items.

The Cost of Sustainability Capital and the Creation of Sustainable Value by Companies

We develop and apply a valuation methodology to calculate the cost of sustainability capital, and, eventually, sustainable value creation of companies. Sustainable development posits that decisions must take into account all forms of capital rather than just economic capital. We develop a methodology that allows calculation of the costs that are associated with the use of different forms of capital. Our methodology borrows the idea from financial economics that the return on capital has to cover the cost of capital. Capital costs are determined as opportunity costs, that is, the forgone returns that would have been created by alternative investments. We apply and extend the logic of opportunity costs to the valuation not only of economic capital but also of other forms of capital. This allows (a) integrated analysis of use of different forms of capital based on a value-based aggregation of different forms of capital, (b) determination of the opportunity cost of a bundle of different forms of capital used in a company, called cost of sustainability capital, (c) calculation of sustainability efficiency of companies, and (d) calculation of sustainable value creation, that is, the value above the cost of sustainability capital. By expanding the well-established logic of the valuation of economic capital in financial markets to cover other forms of capital, we provide a methodology that allows determination of the most efficient allocation of sustainability capital for sustainable value creation in companies. We demonstrate the practicability of the methodology by the valuation of the sustainability performance of British Petroleum (BP).

Modelling Patient Duration of Stay to Facilitate Resource Management of Geriatric Hospitals

A fundamental aspect of health care management is the effective allocation of resources. This is of particular importance in geriatric hospitals where elderly patients tend to have more complex needs. Hospital managers would benefit immensely if they had advance knowledge of patient duration of stay in hospital. Managers could assess the costs of patient care and make allowances for these in their budget. In this paper, we tackle this important problem via a model which predicts the duration of stay distribution of patients in hospital. The approach uses phase-type distributions conditioned on a Bayesian belief network.

Using Coxian Phase-Type Distributions to Identify Patient Characteristics for Duration of Stay in Hospital

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that describes duration until an event occurs in terms of a process consisting of a sequence of latent phases. This paper considers the use of Coxian phase-type distributions for modelling patient duration of stay for the elderly in hospital and investigates the potential for using the resulting distribution as a classifying variable to identify common characteristics between different groups of patients according to their (anticipated) length of stay in hospital. The identification of common characteristics for patient length of stay groups would offer hospital managers and clinicians possible insights into the overall management and bed allocation of the hospital wards.

Age-specific reproductive investment in female burying beetles: independent effects of state and risk of death

1.How much should an individual invest in reproduction as it grows older? Answering this question involves determining whether individuals measure their age as the time left for future reproduction or as the rate of deterioration in their state. Theory suggests that in the former case individuals should increase their allocation of resources to reproduction as opportunities for future breeding dwindle, and terminally invest when they breed for the last time. In the latter case they should reduce their investment in reproduction with age, either through adaptive reproductive restraint or as a passive by-product of senescence.
2.Here we present the results of experiments on female burying beetles, Nicrophorus vespilloides, in which we independently manipulated the perceived risk of death (by activating the immune system) and the extent of deterioration in state (by changing age of first reproduction and/or prior investment in reproduction).
3.We found that the risk of death and state each independently influenced the extent of reproductive investment. Specifically, we found a state-dependent decline in reproductive investment as females grew older that could be attributed to both adaptive reproductive restraint and senescence. A perceived increase in the risk of death, induced by activation of the immune system, caused females to switch from a strategy of reproductive restraint to terminal investment. Nevertheless, absolute reproductive investment was lower in older females, indicating constraints of senescence.
4.Our results show that a decline in reproductive investment with age does not necessarily constitute evidence of reproductive senescence but can also result from adaptive reproductive restraint.
5.Our results further suggest that the extent of reproductive investment is dependent on several different intrinsic cues and that the particular blend of cues available at any given age can yield very different patterns of investment. Perhaps this explains why age-related reproductive investment patterns seen in nature are so diverse.

Risk: A Study of Its Origins, History and Politics

Over a period of several centuries, the academic study of risk has evolved as a distinct body of thought, which continues to influence conceptual developments in fields such as economics, management, politics and sociology. However, few scholarly works have given a chronological account of cultural and intellectual trends relating to the understanding and analysis of risks. Risk: A Study of its Origins, History and Politics aims to fill this gap by providing a detailed study of key turning points in the evolution of society's understanding of risk. Using a wide range of primary and secondary materials, Matthias Beck and Beth Kewell map the political origins and moral reach of some of the most influential ideas associated with risk and uncertainty at specific periods of time. The historical focus of the book makes it an excellent introduction for readers who wish to go beyond specific risk management techniques and their theoretical underpinnings, to gain an understanding of the history and politics of risk.

Simple method for the rapid simultaneous screening of photocatalytic activity over multiple positions of self-cleaning films

An intelligent ink, previously shown to be capable of rapidly assessing photocatalytic activity, was simply applied via a felt-pen onto a commercially available piece of Activ (TM) self-cleaning glass. The ink, comprising of redox dye resazurin and the sacrificial electron donor glycerol within an aqueous hydroxy ethyl cellulose (HEC) polymer media, was photocatalytically degraded in a two-step process. The key initial stage was the photo-reductive conversion of resazurin to resorufin, whereby a colour change from blue to pink occurred. The latter stage was the subsequent photo-reduction of the resorufin, where a slower change from pink to colourless was seen. Red and green components of red-green-blue colour extracted from flat-bed scanner digital images of resazurin ink coated photocatalytic films at intervals during the photocatalysis reaction were inversely proportional to the changes seen via UV-visible absorption spectroscopy and indicative of reaction kinetics. A 3 x 3 grid of intelligent ink was drawn onto a piece of Activ (TM) and a glass blank. The photocatalysis reaction was monitored solely by flat-bed digital scanning. Red-green-blue values of respective positions on the grid were extracted using a custom-built program entitled RGB Extractor (c). The program was capable of extracting a number of 5 x 5 pixel averages of red-green-blue components simultaneously. Allocation of merely three coordinates allowed for the automatic generation of a grid, with scroll-bars controlling the number of positions to be extracted on the grid formed. No significant change in red and green components for any position on the glass blank was observed; however, the Activ (TM) film displayed a homogenous photo-reduction of the dye, reaching maxima in red and minima in green components in 23 +/- 3 and 14 +/- 2 min, respectively. A compositionally graded N-doped titania film synthesised in house via a combinatorial APCVD reaction was also photocatalytically tested by this method where 247 positions on a 13 x 19 grid were simultaneously analysed. The dramatic variation in photocatalysis observed was rapidly quantified for all positions (2-3 hours) allowing for correlations to be made between thicknesses and N : Ti% compositions attained from Swanepoel and WDX analysis, respectively. N incorporation within this system was found to be detrimental to film activity for the photocatalysis reaction of intelligent ink under 365 nm light.

Resource utilization and cost analyses of home-based palliative care service provision:The Niagara West End-of-Life Shared-Care Project

Background: Increasing emphasis is being placed on the economics of health care service delivery - including home-based palliative care. Aim: This paper analyzes resource utilization and costs of a shared-care demonstration project in rural Ontario (Canada) from the public health care system's perspective. Design: To provide enhanced end-of-life care, the shared-care approach ensured exchange of expertise and knowledge and coordination of services in line with the understood goals of care. Resource utilization and costs were tracked over the 15 month study period from January 2005 to March 2006. Results: Of the 95 study participants (average age 71 years), 83 had a cancer diagnosis (87%); the non-cancer diagnoses (12 patients, 13%) included mainly advanced heart diseases and COPD. Community Care Access Centre and Enhanced Palliative Care Team-based homemaking and specialized nursing services were the most frequented offerings, followed by equipment/transportation services and palliative care consults for pain and symptom management. Total costs for all patient-related services (in 2007 CAN) were 1,625,658.07 - or 17,112.19 per patient/117.95 per patient day. Conclusion: While higher than expenditures previously reported for a cancer-only population in an urban Ontario setting, the costs were still within the parameters of the US Medicare Hospice Benefits, on a par with the per diem funding assigned for long-term care homes and lower than both average alternate level of care and hospital costs within the Province of Ontario. The study results may assist service planners in the appropriate allocation of resources and service packaging to meet the complex needs of palliative care populations. © 2012 The Author(s).

Taking as Giving, Appropriation as Access: Transfers of Land Development Rights and China’s Recent Experiments

Economic development at both the domestic and global levels is associated with increasing tensions which are inextricably linked to the meaning and allocation of property rights, which has a great impact on appropriation of resources and may lead to different paths of development. “Taking”-- the appropriation of private land for public needs -- is a typical example that exhibits those tensions, posing a challenge to the conventional conception of property as individualistic and exclusive rights of possession, use, and disposition and to the associated neoliberal model of development. Should the individual landowner be left to bear the cost of a regulatory intervention which endures to the wider benefit of the whole community? How to mitigate the tensions between private ownership and public regulation? If we take the liberal concept of property, then private property seems to be in constant conflict with public interests and wider social concerns. Meanwhile, community, situating between the state and the individuals, and community’s relationship to development rights, have not provoked enough discussion. The paper explores the different ways land development rights might be seen both in Western, essentially common law systems, and in China, especially now and in view of two case studies. An empirical example in Wugang, China reveals the importance of integrating the “community lens” proposed by Roger Cotterrell into studies of the transfer of land development rights. Reading through the community lens, taking could be giving and appropriation could also be access. This approach provides a new perspective to re-evaluate the relationship between legal appropriation and development.

Farmer perception of suitable conditions for slurry application compared with decision support system recommendations

The application of slurry nutrients to land can be associated with unintended losses to the environment depending on soil and weather conditions. Correct timing of slurry application, however, can increase plant nutrient uptake and reduce losses. A decision support system (DSS), which predicts optimum conditions for slurry spreading based on the Hybrid Soil Moisture Deficit (HSMD) model, was investigated for use as a policy tool. The DSS recommendations were compared to farmer perception of suitable conditions for slurry spreading for three soil drainage classes (well, moderate and poorly drained) to better understand on farm slurry management practices and to identify potential conflict with farmer opinion. Six farmers participated in a survey over two and a half years, during which they completed a daily diary, and their responses were compared to Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) calculations and weather data recorded by on farm meteorological stations. The perception of land drainage quality differed between farmers and was related to their local knowledge and experience. It was found that the allocation of grass fields to HSMD drainage classes using a visual assessment method aligned farmer perception of drainage at the national scale. Farmer opinion corresponded to the theoretical understanding that slurry should not be applied when the soil is wetter than field capacity, i.e. when drainage can occur. While weather and soil conditions (especially trafficability) were the principal reasons given by farmers not to spread slurry, farm management practices (grazing and silage) and current Nitrates Directive policies (closed winter period for spreading) combined with limited storage capacities were obstacles to utilisation of slurry nutrients. Despite the slightly more restrictive advice of the DSS regarding the number of suitable spreading opportunities, the system has potential to address an information deficit that would help farmers to reduce nutrient losses and optimise plant nutrient uptake by improved slurry management. The DSS advice was in general agreement with the farmers and, therefore, they should not be resistant to adopting the tool for day to day management.

Unveiling Fairness for the Consumer:The Law, Economics and Justice of Expanded Arbitration

In recent years, the US Supreme Court has rather controversially extended the ambit of the Federal Arbitration Act to extend arbitration’s reach into, inter alia¸ consumer matters, with the consequence that consumers are often (and unbeknownst to them) denied remedies which would otherwise be available. Such denied remedies include recourse to class action proceedings, effective denial of punitive damages, access to discovery and the ability to resolve the matter in a convenient forum.

The court’s extension of arbitration’s ambit is controversial. Attempts to overturn this extension have been made in Congress, but to no avail. In contrast to American law, European consumer law looks at pre-dispute agreements to arbitrate directed at consumers with extreme suspicion, and does so on the grounds of fairness. In contrast, some argue that pre-dispute agreements in consumer (and employment) matters are consumer welfare enhancing: they decrease the costs of doing business, which is then passed on to the consumer. This Article examines these latter claims from both an economic and normative perspective.

The economic analysis of these arguments shows that their assumptions do not hold. Rather than being productive of consumer surplus, the use of arbitration is likely to have the opposite effect. The industries from which the recent Supreme Court cases originated not only do not exhibit the industrial structure assumed by the proponents of expanded arbitration, but are also industries which exhibit features that facilitate consumer welfare reducing collusion.

The normative analysis addresses the fairness concerns. It is explicitly based upon John Rawls’ notion of “justice as fairness,” which can provide a lens to evaluate social institutions. This Rawlsian analysis considers the use of extended arbitration in consumer matters in the light of the earlier economic results. It suggests that the asymmetries present in the contractual allocation of rights serve as prima facie evidence that such arbitration–induced exclusions are prima facie unjust/unfair. However, as asymmetry is only a prima facie test, a generalized criticism of the arbitration exclusions (of the sort found in Congress and underlying the European regime) is overbroad.