Economic forecasting in a changing world

This article explains the basis for a theory of economic forecasting developed over the past decade by the authors. The research has resulted in numerous articles in academic journals, two monographs, Forecasting Economic Time Series, 1998, Cambridge University Press, and Forecasting Nonstationary Economic Time Series, 1999, MIT Press, and three edited volumes, Understanding Economic Forecasts, 2001, MIT Press, A Companion to Economic Forecasting, 2002, Blackwells, and the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2005. The aim here is to provide an accessible, non-technical, account of the main ideas. The interested reader is referred to the monographs for derivations, simulation evidence, and further empirical illustrations, which in turn reference the original articles and related material, and provide bibliographic perspective.

Learning Latin the ancient way: Latin textbooks from the ancient world

A collection of Latin textbooks used by Greek speakers in the Roman empire, translated and annotated for modern readers. Includes reading material such as dialogues, phrasebooks, Colloquia of the Hermeneumata Pseudodositheana, stories about the Trojan war, Aesop's fables, legal treatises, and model letters; grammatical works from Dositheus and Charisius; glossaries/lexica; prose compostion exercises; alphabets. Some texts are transliterated.

Pasolini and Third World hunger: an approach to Cinema Novo through 'La ricotta'

Among the links between Pier Paolo Pasolini and Brazilian Cinema Novo, one of the most inspiring is the political approach to hunger and consumption. In this text, I analyse this topic to look at how some of the aesthetic ideas in Pasolini’s La ricotta (1963) can also be found in some of the most important films of Cinema Novo. In 'La ricotta' (1963), the irresistible need to eat of a subproletarian interacts and clashes with his responsibilities as an actor in a movie version of the Passion of Christ, so that the film creates a complex network of relations between film shooting, social differences, art, hunger, consumption, time and light, which turns the film set into a space for displaying political relations, differences, exploitation and revolution. The correspondences between these concepts and some aggression techniques of Cinema Novo are numerous and confirm the capacity of Pasolini’s film to project ideas on cinema and politics beyond its particular production context.

The Muscini flies of the world (Diptera, Muscidae): identification key and generic diagnoses

Flies of the tribe Muscini (Diptera, Muscidae) are worldwide in distribution and are represented by some 350 species in 18 genera. The present study provides an identification key and diagnoses for all the genera of world Muscini: Biopyrellia Townsend, Curranosia Paterson, Dasyphora Robineau-Desvoidy, Deltotus Seguy, Hennigmyia Peris, Mesembrina Meigen, Mitroplatia Enderlein, Morellia Robineau-Desvoidy, Musca Linnaeus, Myiophaea Enderlein, Neomyia Walker, Neorypellia Pont, Polietes Rondani, Polietina Schnabl & Dziedzicki, Pyrellia Robineau-Desvoidy, Pyrellina Malloch, Sarcopromusca Townsend, Ziminellia Nihei & de Carvalho. Most infrageneric taxa are also represented, namely, the sub-genera of Dasyphora and Morellia. Comments on phylogeny support (whenever pertinent) and the major references containing revisions and regional identification keys to species are provided for each genus and subgenus.

The first electronic polytomous key to the world species of the subgenus Typhlodromus (Anthoseius) de Leon (Acari: Phytoseiidae)

This paper describes the first polytomous computerised identification key within the family Phytoseiidae. It applies to the females of the world species of the subgenus Typhlodromus (Anthoseius) de Leon. This group is one of the largest within the family Phytoseiidae and the sub-family Typhlodrominae, with nearly 350 species currently recognised worldwide. No identification tool of these species exists at the world level, which makes their identification very difficult and unsecure. Thirty five characters were used to characterise each of the 343 species. Among these characters, 14 are discrete and 21 are continuous. The polytomous key was constructed using the free software DELTA 1.04 (DEscription Language for TAxonomy) and is freely available at the web site: http://www1.montpellier.inra.fr/CBGP/phytoseiidae/anthoseiuskeypresentation.html. We hope that this work will open new perspectives for the identification of species of other genera (especially the largest ones, e.g. Neoseiulus, Euseius, Amblyseius) which contains more than 150 species and for which no key presently exists. We also expect that the present work will make the identification of the world species of Typhlodromus (Anthoseius) easier and more secure. Finally, we expect a contribution from the whole Phytoseiidae scientist community to improve subsequent versions of the key.

Photo luminescence: A probe for short, medium and long-range self-organization order in ZrTiO4 oxide

Photoluminescent disordered ZrTiO4 powders were obtained by the polymeric precursor soft-chemical method. This oxide system (ordered and disordered) was characterized by photoluminescence, Raman spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry and UV vis absorption experiments. The UV absorption tail formation in the disordered oxides was related to the diminution of optical band gap. In the disordered phase, this oxide displayed broad band photoluminescence caused by change in coordination number of titanium and zirconium with oxygen atoms. The gap decreased from 3.09 eV in crystalline oxide to 2.16 eV in disordered oxide. The crystalline oxide presented an orthorhombic alpha-PbO2-type structure in which Zr4+ and Ti4+ were randomly distributed in octahedral coordination polyhedra with oxygen atoms. The amorphous-crystalline transition occurred at almost 700 degrees C, at which point the photoluminescence vanished. The Raman peak at close to 80-200 cm(-1) indicated the presence of locally ordered Ti-O-n and Zr-O-n polyhedra in disordered photoluminescent oxides. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Origin of photo luminescence in SrTiO3: a combined experimental and theoretical study

A joint experimental and theoretical study has been carried out to rationalize the photoluminescence properties of SrTiO3 perovskite thin films synthesized through a soft chemical processing. Only the amorphous samples present photoluminescence at room temperature. From the theoretical side, first principles quantum mechanical techniques, based on density functional theory at B3LYP level, have been employed to study the electronic structure of a crystalline (ST-c) and an asymmetric (ST-a) model. Electronic properties are analyzed in the light of the experimental results and their relevance in relation to the PL behavior of ST is discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity, Species Interactions and Ecological Networks in a Fragmented World

Biodiversity is organised into complex ecological networks of interacting species in local ecosystems, but our knowledge about the effects of habitat fragmentation on such systems remains limited. We consider the effects of this key driver of both local and global change on both mutualistic and antagonistic systems at different levels of biological organisation and spatiotemporal scales.There is a complex interplay of patterns and processes related to the variation and influence of spatial, temporal and biotic drivers in ecological networks. Species traits (e.g. body size, dispersal ability) play an important role in determining how networks respond to fragment size and isolation, edge shape and permeability, and the quality of the surrounding landscape matrix. Furthermore, the perception of spatial scale (e.g. environmental grain) and temporal effects (time lags, extinction debts) can differ markedly among species, network modules and trophic levels, highlighting the need to develop a more integrated perspective that considers not just nodes, but the structural role and strength of species interactions (e.g. as hubs, spatial couplers and determinants of connectance, nestedness and modularity) in response to habitat fragmentation.Many challenges remain for improving our understanding: the likely importance of specialisation, functional redundancy and trait matching has been largely overlooked. The potentially critical effects of apex consumers, abundant species and supergeneralists on network changes and evolutionary dynamics also need to be addressed in future research. Ultimately, spatial and ecological networks need to be combined to explore the effects of dispersal, colonisation, extinction and habitat fragmentation on network structure and coevolutionary dynamics. Finally, we need to embed network approaches more explicitly within applied ecology in general, because they offer great potential for improving on the current species-based or habitat-centric approaches to our management and conservation of biodiversity in the face of environmental change.

A new species of hydrogamasellus (acari: Mesostigmata: Ologamasidae) from brazil, with a key to the world species of the genus

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)