Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus) movement and feeding behaviour during experiments, 2011

Changes in olfactory-mediated behaviour caused by elevated CO2 levels in the ocean could affect recruitment to reef fish populations because larval fish become more vulnerable to predation. However, it is currently unclear how elevated CO2 will impact the other key part of the predator-prey interaction - the predators. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 and reduced pH on olfactory preferences, activity levels and feeding behaviour of a common coral reef meso-predator, the brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus). Predators were exposed to either current-day CO2 levels or one of two elevated CO2 levels (~600 µatm or ~950 µatm) that may occur by 2100 according to climate change predictions. Exposure to elevated CO2 and reduced pH caused a shift from preference to avoidance of the smell of injured prey, with CO2treated predators spending approximately 20% less time in a water stream containing prey odour compared with controls. Furthermore, activity levels of fish was higher in the high CO2 treatment and feeding activity was lower for fish in the mid CO2treatment; indicating that future conditions may potentially reduce the ability of the fish to respond rapidly to fluctuations in food availability. Elevated activity levels of predators in the high CO2 treatment, however, may compensate for reduced olfactory ability, as greater movement facilitated visual detection of food. Our findings show that, at least for the species tested to date, both parties in the predator-prey relationship may be affected by ocean acidification. Although impairment of olfactory-mediated behaviour of predators might reduce the risk of predation for larval fishes, the magnitude of the observed effects of elevated CO2 acidification appear to be more dramatic for prey compared to predators. Thus, it is unlikely that the altered behaviour of predators is sufficient to fully compensate for the effects of ocean acidification on prey mortality.

El movimiento social de 1995 en Francia contra el neoliberalismo

Las movilizaciones de noviembre-diciembre de 1995 en Francia contra el Plan Juppé fueron la primera gran revuelta en un país europeo contra el neoliberalismo. Con los trabajadores del sector público como eje de la protesta el movimiento se desplegó en base a la articulación combinada de huelgas y manifestaciones. Las reivindicaciones sectoriales se articularon en un discurso más general de defensa del servicio público y el interés general. Noviembre-diciembre de 1995 marcó el inicio de un ciclo de movilizaciones contra el neoliberalismo en Francia que testimonió su creciente pérdida de legitimidad.

Experimental Evidence that Retaliation Claims Are Unlike Other Employment Discrimination Claims

The type of discrimination claim that strikes fear in the hearts of all employers is the dreaded retaliation claim. While employers contend, and plaintiffs admit, that retaliation is different from other discrimination complaints, employee advocates have put forth legislation that would equalize retaliation with the other types of discrimination. This bill, Protecting Older Workers against Discrimination Act (POWADA), would expand the so-called mixed-motive jury instruction to age, and disability, as well as retaliation. Moreover, it would allow plaintiffs, not judges, to decide which types of instruction the jury would receive. In this article, the authors argue that retaliation claims should not receive the same treatment as other discrimination claims (including age and disability), because it’s easy for juries to believe that retaliation is a factor, regardless of other facts. Once a fact-finding jury checks the box to indicate that an employer’s motive might include retaliation, the employer will likely have to pay fees and costs, at minimum, regardless of the claim’s final resolution.

Assessing Potential Laser Strike Protection Engineering Control for United States Coast Guard Aircraft

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Resistive Embedded Heating for Homogeneous Curing of Composite Damage Repair

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Rape: A timeline of reform

The recent report by Dame Elish Angiolini report (2/6/15) into rape investigation in The Metropolitan Police highlights the issues in modern day rape investigation and makes a list of recommendations(See Table 1) .The report states that ”Rape is one of the most serious but misunderstood crimes and presents investigators and prosecutors with unique challenges. In its variety and complexity rape often presents difficulties far in excess of those encountered in investigating other crimes, including homicide”. This reflects the authors experience as a detective managing detective units and investigating rape in London. The Home Office Research Study in 2005 saw rape as, ‘a unique crime, representing both a physical and psychological violation’. In 2010 Baroness Stern went further, observing, ‘It is unique in the way it strikes at the bodily integrity and self-respect of the complainant, in the demands it makes on those public authorities required to respond to it and in the controversy it generates’. This article will look at these recommendations and place them in the context of 40 years of changing policy towards rape investigation, legal changes and the change in the social milieu.

The parallel solution of early-exercise Asian options with stochastic volatility

This paper describes an parallel semi-Lagrangian finite difference approach to the pricing of early exercise Asian Options on assets with a stochastic volatility. A multigrid procedure is described for the fast iterative solution of the discrete linear complementarity problems that result. The accuracy and performance of this approach is improved considerably by a strike-price related analytic transformation of asset prices. Asian options are contingent claims with payoffs that depend on the average price of an asset over some time interval. The payoff may depend on this average and a fixed strike price (Fixed Strike Asians) or it may depend on the average and the asset price (Floating Strike Asians). The option may also permit early exercise (American contract) or confine the holder to a fixed exercise date (European contract). The Fixed Strike Asian with early exercise is considered here where continuous arithmetic averaging has been used. Pricing such an option where the asset price has a stochastic volatility leads to the requirement to solve a tri-variate partial differential inequation in the three state variables of asset price, average price and volatility (or equivalently, variance). The similarity transformations [6] used with Floating Strike Asian options to reduce the dimensionality of the problem are not applicable to Fixed Strikes and so the numerical solution of a tri-variate problem is necessary. The computational challenge is to provide accurate solutions sufficiently quickly to support realtime trading activities at a reasonable cost in terms of hardware requirements.

'Dis ain't gimme, Florida': Zora Neale Hurston's Their Eyes Were Watching God

Who owns Zora Neale Hurston? That was the question asked in 1990 by Michele Wallace, in an analysis of the ways in which Hurston has been appropriated by later scholars. Wallace's pungent comparison of later critics to so many 'groupies descending on Elvis Presley's estate' in their haste to turn Hurston to their own purposes strikes a cautionary note for any subsequent writer. As she notes, the risk of canonization is that the work will be misused to derail the future of blackwomen in literature and literary criticism. For Wallace, Harold's introduction to his Modern Critical Views anthology of 1986 is a case in point. This article is copyright 2003 MHRA, and is included in this repository with permission.

Bogusław Śliwa (1944-1989) - działacz opozycji demokratycznej i "Solidarności" w Kaliszu

Bogusław Śliwa was born in Lvov on 6 October 1944. He graduated in law studies at Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań in 1969. Following the completion of his prosecutor’s apprenticeship he worked, among others, in Wolsztyn, Świebodzin and – from 1975 – in Kalisz. On 22 August 1978 Śliwa was fired from the public prosecutor’s office because he had attempted to detect a person who murdered during the robbery committed by a Civic Militia officer. That time he established and maintained close contacts with activists of the Workers’ Defence Committee (KOR), among others: Jacek Kuroń, Mirosław Chojecki, Adam Michnik, Bronisław Geremek, Jan Lityński, Zofia Romaszewska and Zbigniew Romaszewski. In 1978 he began to cooperate with the Kalisz group of the Movement for the Defence of Human and Civil Rights (ROPCiO). In the early 1979 this group started to publish “Wolne Słowo” in which Śliwa was a co-editor. On 28 June 1979 in Poznań he was involved in founding the Social Self-Defence Club of the Wielkopolska and Kujawy Region. In September 1980, during strikes at the FWR “Runotex” and KZKS “Winiary” in Kalisz Śliwa was an expert representing the workers. On 29 September of that year, he arranged in Kalisz a meeting of representatives and delegates of enterprises in Kalisz aimed at appointing the Board of the Inter-Enterprise Founding Committee of the Independent Self-Governing Trade Union. He became the secretary. Bogusław Śliwa also engaged in setting up and developing an information team. He was informally responsible for developing an information and printing base. Bogusław Śliwa set up “NSZZ Solidarność” magazine where he published his own articles. He also founded the “Solidarność” Workers’ Community Centre in Kalisz. it is noteworthy that it was the only community centre in Poland established by „Solidarność”. In December the Nationwide Liaison Commission of „Solidarność” appointed him to the Committee for the Defence of Prisoners of Conscience established on 10 December of that year. He participated in the information meeting of the Independent Self-Governing Trade Union of Independent Farmers “Solidarność Wiejska” held in Staw, in Szczytniki commune. During that meeting “Solidarność Wiejska” led by Mieczysław Walczykiewicz requested the authorities to liquidate the “Świt” Agricultural Production Cooperative in Cieszyków, in Szczytniki commune. Bogusław Śliwa was involved in this successful event. It was the first liquidation of cooperative in Poland. On 11 January 1981 Śliwa co-organized the 1st Regional Convention of „Solidarność” Wiejska in Kalisz. Following the so-called Bydgoszcz events of 19 March 1981 he advocated the general strike. Due to his attitude, Śliwa was listed as one of 146 „Solidarność” activists executed by the 3rd “A” Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. According to the authorities those activists presented radical views. On 30 June 1981 at the 1st General Delegates Convention of the Kaliskie province, Śliwa, as a delegate of the Kaliskie province, was appointed to the Regional Board of „Solidarność” – Southern Wielkopolska. In July Śliwa set up in Kalisz the underground branch of the Polish Democratic Party. In 1981 Śliwa was a delegate to the 1st National Delegates Convention of „Solidarność” and co-edited with Jan Lityński the document entitled: “Message to the Working People of Eastern Europe” originated by Henryk Siciński and adopted by the 1st National Delegates Convention. On 22 November he participated in the Warsaw-held meeting founding the Self-Governing Republic Clubs “Liberty – Equality– Independence” and signed the founding declaration. On 28 of that month he co-organized with Antoni Pietkiewicz a founding meeting of the Club in Kalisz. When martial law was declared he began to hide in Kalisz. Śliwa was arrested on 25 February 1982 and interned in Ostrów Wielkopolski and then in Gębarzew and Kwidzyn. After being released on 25 November 1982, he was immediately involved in the activity of the underground movement of „Solidarność”. He edited the first two issues of “Nasza Solidarność” magazine published in Kalisz. Śliwa co-invented and co-organized the 1st May march that was independent from the authorities’ one held in Kalisz in 1983. Consequently, he was temporarily arrested and detained in Ostrów Wielkopolski. On 7 June 1983 he was released from custody. The amnesty declared on 21 July 1983 caused that the investigation against him was discontinued. In July of the same year he co-founded the Inter-Regional Coordination Commission of the Independent Self-Governing Trade Union “Solidarność” Kalisz-Konin-Sieradz. As he could not find any work and he and his family were exposed to psychological harassment, he emigrated to Sweden on 30 December 1983. He worked, among other positions, as bookbinder. He was the board secretary of the Congress of Poles in Sweden. In 1984 he commented the death of priest Jerzy Popiełuszko in “Dagens Nyheter” daily. He was also interviewed by Radio Liberty. Śliwa commenced cooperating with representatives of the „Solidarność” Coordination Office in Paris, Brussels and Stockholm. On 18 April 1985 the Military Garrison Prosecutor’s Office in Wrocław initiated investigations against Śliwa, charging him with activities detrimental to political interests of the People’s Republic of Poland. Subsequently, on 10 July 1985 this public prosecutor’s office decided to issue an arrest warrant for him. On the same day the public prosecutor suspended criminal proceedings against him. In December 1985, after the courageous escape of two brothers, Adam and Krzysztof Zieliński, from Poland to Sweden, he helped them prevent their deportation and stay in their new homeland. He expressed his opinion on this issue on Swedish television and in “ Dagens Nyheter” daily. His intervention helped them legally stay in Sweden. In 1989 he arrived in Poland. During this short visit he met and talked with his colleagues from the so-called first „Solidarność”. Bogusław Śliwa died in Stockholm on 23 November 1989. He was buried there on 7 December 1989. On 18 October 2006 he was posthumously honoured by Lech Kaczynski, President of Poland, with the Order of Polonis Restitution. On 15 June 2007 Bogusław Śliwa was posthumously granted the title of an Honorary Citizen of Kalisz by the Town Council of Kalisz.

Setúbal e a Primeira Guerra Mundial (1914-1918)

A presente dissertação é circunscrita no espaço e no tempo, tendo como objecto de estudo fundamental o concelho de Setúbal durante a I Guerra Mundial (1914-1918). Enquadrando historicamente os impactos do conflito no contexto nacional, Setúbal é revisitada entre os finais de oitocentos e os primórdios do século XX a fim de retratar política, económica, social e culturalmente um dos maiores centros urbanos portugueses dos finais da Monarquia Constitucional e do início da I República. Numa lógica de impactos políticos e económico-sociais, esta investigação promove o redescobrir das vivências quotidianas de Setúbal durante um dos períodos mais negros da História da Humanidade. Através do estudo dos mecanismos de acção e intervenção municipais, bem como dos resultados eleitorais e dinâmicas políticopartidárias locais, transmite-se como foram vividos acontecimentos marcantes da vida pública de Portugal, nomeadamente o 14 de Maio de 1915 e o coup d’état sidonista, realçando como dimensões operárias anárquicas e sindicalistas conviviam com grupos conservadores, católicos e monárquicos. Num plano de economia de guerra, o mundo agrícola é abordado em diferentes sectores, nomeadamente na laranja, na cortiça e nos vinhos, dando maior atenção às questões relacionadas com a decadência da fruta e à abertura de novos mercados exportadores, como o Brasil, pela Casa José Maria da Fonseca. A indústria de conservas de peixe, que viveu um boom neste período como resultado da intensa procura externa dos países aliados que tinham nas latas de conserva o alimento das tropas nas trincheiras, representa outro foco de análise deste trabalho. Consequentemente aborda-se o papel da estrutura portuária local na resposta às necessidades de consumo britânicas, francesas e italianas. Por fim, os impactos sociais do conflito em Setúbal constituem um dos enunciados desta investigação, compreendendo como o estudo de uma imprensa dividida na questão intervencionismo versus anti-intervencionismo reflectiu um concelho que viveu como poucos a crise de abastecimentos e a carestia de vida. A proliferação de greves, manifestações contra a guerra, as deserções militares e os assaltos colectivos representam o culminar de um vulcão que entrou em erupção e que ainda sofreu as agruras da epidemia da gripe pneumónica até ao final do ano de 1918.

Mestres estrangeiros; operariado nacional : resistências e derrotas no cotidiano da maior fábrica têxtil do rio de janeiro (1890 - 1920)

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de História, Programa de Pós-Graduação em História, 2015.

Gestão territorial e geografia dos transportes : o processo de concessão do Aeroporto Internacional de Brasília

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Geografia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Geografia, 2016.

Análisis del cambio de las relaciones políticas entre India y Pakistán, a la luz de la cultura de anarquía hobbesiana, como consecuencia de los atentados de Mumbai 2008

Esta investigación busca analizar como se modificaron las relaciones entre India y Pakistán luego de los atentados de Mumbai 2008, a la luz de la cultura de anarquía hobbesiana. Para ello, se explicará como la estructura de anarquía ha sido un catalizador en la modificación de la toma de decisiones de los Estados, sobretodo teniendo en cuenta la característica de Pakistán como un Estado predador. Se demostrará si gracias a estos atentados la actuación de India en el conflicto ha cambiado y percibe a su par como un ente violento y predispuesto a la agresión. Para ello se entrará a explicar el devenir histórico de la relación, la intensidad del grupo perpetrador (Lashkar-e-Taiba) y las posiciones de ambos Estados frente a los atentados.

How to cope with air transport disruptions: airport airside resilience and vulnerability

The efficiency of airport airside operations is often compromised by unplanned disruptive events of different kinds, such as bad weather, strikes or technical failures, which negatively influence the punctuality and regularity of operations, causing serious delays and unexpected congestion. They may provoke important impacts and economic losses on passengers, airlines and airport operators, and consequences may propagate in the air network throughout different airports. In order to identify strategies to cope with such events and minimize their impacts, it is crucial to understand how disruptive events affect airports’ performance. The research field related with the risk of severe air transport network disruptions and their impact on society is related to the concepts of vulnerability and resilience. The main objective of this project is to provide a framework that allows to evaluate performance losses and consequences due to unexpected disruptions affecting airport airside operations, supporting the development of a methodology for estimating vulnerability and resilience indicators for airport airside operations. The methodology proposed comprises three phases. In the first phase, airside operations are modelled in both the baseline and disrupted scenarios. The model includes all main airside processes and takes into consideration the uncertainties and dynamics of the system. In the second phase, the model is implemented by using a generic simulation software, AnyLogic. Vulnerability is evaluated by taking into consideration the costs related to flight delays, cancellations and diversions; resilience is determined as a function of the loss of capacity during the entire period of disruption. In the third phase, a Bayesian Network is built in which uncertain variables refer to airport characteristics and disruption type. The Bayesian Network expresses the conditional dependence among these variables and allows to predict the impacts of disruptions on an airside system, determining the elements which influence the system resilience the most.