Species richness of pteridophytes in a montane Atlantic rain forest plot of Southern Brazil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Economic design of (X)over-bar and R charts under Weibull shock models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic evaluation of the probability of pregnancy at 14 months for Nellore heifers

To estimate the heritability for the probability that yearling heifers would become pregnant, we analyzed the records of 11,487 Nellore animals that participated in breeding seasons at three farms in the Brazilian states of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. All heifers were exposed to a bull at the age of about 14 mo. The probability of pregnancy was analyzed as a categorical trait, with a value of 1 (success) assigned to heifers that were diagnosed pregnant by rectal palpation about 60 d after the end of the breeding season of 90 d and a value of 0 (failure) assigned to those that were not pregnant at that time. The estimate of heritability, obtained by Method 9, was 0.57 with standard error of 0.01. The EPD was predicted using a maximum a posteriori threshold method and was expressed as deviations from 50% probability. The range in EPD was -24.50 to 24.55%, with a mean of 0.78% and a SD of 7.46%. We conclude that EPD for probability of pregnancy can be used to select heifers with a higher probability of being fertile. However, it is mainly recommended for the selection of bulls for the production of precocious daughters because the accuracy of prediction is higher for bulls, depending on their number of daughters.

Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Joint conomic design of (x)over-bar and R charts under Weibull shock models

This paper deals with the joint economic design of (x) over bar and R charts when the occurrence times of assignable causes follow Weibull distributions with increasing failure rates. The variable quality characteristic is assumed to be normally distributed and the process is subject to two independent assignable causes (such as tool wear-out, overheating, or vibration). One cause changes the process mean and the other changes the process variance. However, the occurrence of one kind of assignable cause does not preclude the occurrence of the other. A cost model is developed and a non-uniform sampling interval scheme is adopted. A two-step search procedure is employed to determine the optimum design parameters. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the model is conducted, and the cost savings associated with the use of non-uniform sampling intervals instead of constant sampling intervals are evaluated.

Modelling frequency distributions of 5 minute-averaged solar radiation indexes using Beta probability functions

Five minute-averaged values of sky clearness, direct and diffuse indices, were used to model the frequency distributions of these variables in terms of optical air mass. From more than four years of solar radiation observations it was found that variations in the frequency distributions of the three indices of optical air mass for Botucatu, Brazil, are similar to those in other places, as published in the literature. The proposed models were obtained by linear combination of normalized Beta probability functions, using the observed distributions derived from three years of data. The versatility of these functions allows modelling of all three irradiance indexes to similar levels of accuracy. A comparison with the observed distributions obtained from one year of observations indicate that the models are able to reproduce the observed frequency distributions of all three indices at the 95% confidence level.

Discrete coherent states and probability distributions in finite-dimensional spaces

Operator bases are discussed in connection with the construction of phase space representatives of operators in finite-dimensional spaces, and their properties are presented. It is also shown how these operator bases allow for the construction of a finite harmonic oscillator-like coherent state. Creation and annihilation operators for the Fock finite-dimensional space are discussed and their expressions in terms of the operator bases are explicitly written. The relevant finite-dimensional probability distributions are obtained and their limiting behavior for an infinite-dimensional space are calculated which agree with the well known results. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.

A Note on the Prior Distributions of Weibull Parameters for the Reliability Function

In Bayesian Inference it is often desirable to have a posterior density reflecting mainly the information from sample data. To achieve this purpose it is important to employ prior densities which add little information to the sample. We have in the literature many such prior densities, for example, Jeffreys (1967), Lindley (1956); (1961), Hartigan (1964), Bernardo (1979), Zellner (1984), Tibshirani (1989), etc. In the present article, we compare the posterior densities of the reliability function by using Jeffreys, the maximal data information (Zellner, 1984), Tibshirani's, and reference priors for the reliability function R(t) in a Weibull distribution.

Escape of particles in a time-dependent potential well

We investigate the escape of an ensemble of noninteracting particles inside an infinite potential box that contains a time-dependent potential well. The dynamics of each particle is described by a two-dimensional nonlinear area-preserving mapping for the variables energy and time, leading to a mixed phase space. The chaotic sea in the phase space surrounds periodic islands and is limited by a set of invariant spanning curves. When a hole is introduced in the energy axis, the histogram of frequency for the escape of particles, which we observe to be scaling invariant, grows rapidly until it reaches a maximum and then decreases toward zero at sufficiently long times. A plot of the survival probability of a particle in the dynamics as function of time is observed to be exponential for short times, reaching a crossover time and turning to a slower-decay regime, due to sticky regions observed in the phase space.

Probability distribution models for daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil

Two stochastic models have been fitted to daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil. Of these two models, the results show a better fit to describe the data, by truncated negative probability model in comparison with Markov chain probability model. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied for significance for these models. © 1983 Springer-Verlag.

Numero de dias de ocorrencia de orvalho em Botucatu, SP.

This paper analyses the dew occurrence in Botucatu, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, in the period from 1971 to 1984. The phenomenon was observed on the grass plot of the Climatological Station in the 'Presidente Medici' Experimental Farm. The station is installed on soil 'Terra Roxa Estruturada', on a middle slope, declivity of 8% and east exposure. Days with dew were summed for the following periods: month, year, season, no rainy period and rainy period. For each period the following values were calculated: mean, mean standard errors and mean confidence interval. Also the absolute extreme values and the amplitude of variation were determined. The confidence interval of the mean were calculated by the 't' statistic, at the level of 5% of error probability. The means were compared by using the 't' statistic, at the level of 5% of error probability. The following table of values corresponds to the regime of dew occurrence in Botucatu, expressed in number of days with dew. The dew occurrence regime in Botucatu was analysed comparatively with the regime at Itatinga, in Sao Paulo State and with the regime of Rio Grande, in Rio Grande do Sul State. -English summary

Carriers escape mechanisms in shallow InGaAs/GaAs quantum wells grown on vicinal (001) GaAs substrates

We used photoluminescence spectroscopy in order to investigate the carriers escape mechanisms in In0.15Ga0.85As/GaAs quantum wells grown on top of nominal (001) and 2°-, 4°-and 6°-off (001) towards (111)A GaAs substrates. We described the escape processes using two models that fit the Arrhenius plot of the integrated PL intensity as a function of the inverse of the sample temperature. In the first model, we considered equal escape probability for electrons and holes. In the second one, we assumed that a single type of carrier can escape from the well. At high temperature, the first model fits the experimental data well, whereas, between 50 K and 100 K, the second model has to be taken into account to describe the data. We observed that the escape activation energy depends on the misorientation angle. An unusual behavior was noted when the full width at half maximum of the photoluminescence main emission was plotted as a function of the sample temperature. We showed that the escape process of the less-confined carriers drives this behavior. © 1999 Academic Press.

Effect of different plot coverings on emergence and early development of seven palm species (arecaceae)

The Arecaceae family comprises plants with economical importance in many Brazilian regions, for agricultural exploration or for landscaping. In great portion, species of this family present low germination velocity and percentage. This work meant to evaluate the germination and early development of seven palm species (Archontophoenix alexandrae H. Wendl. et Drude, Copernicia prunifera (Miller) H.E. Moore, Latania commersonii Gmel., Livistona chinensis R. Br., Syagrus campos-portoana Bondar, Syagrus coronata (Mart.) Beccari, Syagrus picrophylla Barb. Rod.), submitted to three kinds of seed bed plot coverings. Three 10 x 2 m seedbeds were built and filled with a mixture of sand, soil and chicken manure (1:3:0.5 proportion), where two lines were sown with each specie. On top of each seedbed, plastic covering and fifty percent screen were set allowing one third of the seedbed to full sunlight exposure. Seedbeds were irrigated by dripping system. All species had the same germination rate, regardless of the covering, by the end of the experiment (146 days after sowing), eventhough, A. alexandrae under plastic covering conditions, L. commersonii at full sunlight exposure and Syagrus campos-portoana under fifty percent shade, had reached that percentage around 51 days after sowing. The remaining species reached the greatest germination percentage earlier with some of the coverings, rather than at full sunlight exposure. For the studied conditions, covering type had no effect in leaf length and width. For leaf number, there was interaction between species x covering type for Livistona chinensis and Copernicia prunifera.

Joint conomic design of x̄ and R charts under Weibull shock models

This paper deals with the joint economic design of x̄ and R charts when the occurrence times of assignable causes follow Weibull distributions with increasing failure rates. The variable quality characteristic is assumed to be normally distributed and the process is subject to two independent assignable causes (such as tool wear-out, overheating, or vibration). One cause changes the process mean and the other changes the process variance. However, the occurrence of one kind of assignable cause does not preclude the occurrence of the other. A cost model is developed and a non-uniform sampling interval scheme is adopted. A two-step search procedure is employed to determine the optimum design parameters. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of the model is conducted, and the cost savings associated with the use of non-uniform sampling intervals instead of constant sampling intervals are evaluated.

Planning accelerated life tests under Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to present designs for an accelerated life test (ALT). Design/methodology/approach - Bayesian methods and simulation Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used. Findings - In the paper a Bayesian method based on MCMC for ALT under EW distribution (for life time) and Arrhenius models (relating the stress variable and parameters) was proposed. The paper can conclude that it is a reasonable alternative to the classical statistical methods since the implementation of the proposed method is simple, not requiring advanced computational understanding and inferences on the parameters can be made easily. By the predictive density of a future observation, a procedure was developed to plan ALT and also to verify if the conformance fraction of the manufactured process reaches some desired level of quality. This procedure is useful for statistical process control in many industrial applications. Research limitations/implications - The results may be applied in a semiconductor manufacturer. Originality/value - The Exponentiated-Weibull-Arrhenius model has never before been used to plan an ALT. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.