Upwave cities, creative cities : the case of London

The saddest book on cities I have read in a long time is The Lost City of Stoke-on-Trent by Matthew Rice (2010). Rice, who is married to the pottery owner Emma Bridgewater, charts the long decline of the potteries since the 1970s, when many brands closed local potteries to move overseas to Indonesia. There are now only a dozen or so potteries left in Stoke and many jobs that once were there have simply vanished. Yet at one time, Stoke was a place of great wealth creation, innovation and industriousness. The lesson is that once a local economy loses its dynamism, the place itself stagnates and may even die. Stoke is to the UK what Detroit is to the USA. Rice also shows that successive attempts at urban renewal have largely failed to make any impact in reversing Stoke’s declining fortunes. Economic stagnation and decline occurs in real places, leaving multiple economic, social and cultural problems in its wake. Over a period of years, local communities and residents gradually grow poorer, as wealth leaks away to other places.

The relationship between drivers’ perceptions toward police speed enforcement and self-reported speeding behaviour

Exceeding the speed limit and driving too fast for the conditions are regularly cited as significant contributing factors in traffic crashes, particularly fatal and serious injury crashes. Despite an extensive body of research highlighting the relationship between increased vehicle speeds and crash risk and severity, speeding remains a pervasive behaviour on Australian roads. The development of effective countermeasures designed to reduce the prevalence of speeding behaviour requires that this behaviour is well understood. The primary aim of this program of research was to develop a better understanding of the influence of drivers’ perceptions and attitudes toward police speed enforcement on speeding behaviour. Study 1 employed focus group discussions with 39 licensed drivers to explore the influence of perceptions relating to specific characteristics of speed enforcement policies and practices on drivers’ attitudes towards speed enforcement. Three primary factors were identified as being most influential: site selection; visibility; and automaticity (i.e., whether the enforcement approach is automated/camera-based or manually operated). Perceptions regarding these enforcement characteristics were found to influence attitudes regarding the perceived legitimacy and transparency of speed enforcement. Moreover, misperceptions regarding speed enforcement policies and practices appeared to also have a substantial impact on attitudes toward speed enforcement, typically in a negative direction. These findings have important implications for road safety given that prior research has suggested that the effectiveness of speed enforcement approaches may be reduced if efforts are perceived by drivers as being illegitimate, such that they do little to encourage voluntary compliance. Study 1 also examined the impact of speed enforcement approaches varying in the degree of visibility and automaticity on self-reported willingness to comply with speed limits. These discussions suggested that all of the examined speed enforcement approaches (see Section 1.5 for more details) generally showed potential to reduce vehicle speeds and encourage compliance with posted speed limits. Nonetheless, participant responses suggested a greater willingness to comply with approaches operated in a highly visible manner, irrespective of the corresponding level of automaticity of the approach. While less visible approaches were typically associated with poorer rates of driver acceptance (e.g., perceived as “sneaky” and “unfair”), participants reported that such approaches would likely encourage long-term and network-wide impacts on their own speeding behaviour, as a function of the increased unpredictability of operations and increased direct (specific deterrence) and vicarious (general deterrence) experiences with punishment. Participants in Study 1 suggested that automated approaches, particularly when operated in a highly visible manner, do little to encourage compliance with speed limits except in the immediate vicinity of the enforcement location. While speed cameras have been criticised on such grounds in the past, such approaches can still have substantial road safety benefits if implemented in high-risk settings. Moreover, site-learning effects associated with automated approaches can also be argued to be a beneficial by-product of enforcement, such that behavioural modifications are achieved even in the absence of actual enforcement. Conversely, manually operated approaches were reported to be associated with more network-wide impacts on behaviour. In addition, the reported acceptance of such methods was high, due to the increased swiftness of punishment, ability for additional illegal driving behaviours to be policed and the salutary influence associated with increased face-to-face contact with authority. Study 2 involved a quantitative survey conducted with 718 licensed Queensland drivers from metropolitan and regional areas. The survey sought to further examine the influence of the visibility and automaticity of operations on self-reported likelihood and duration of compliance. Overall, the results from Study 2 corroborated those of Study 1. All examined approaches were again found to encourage compliance with speed limits, such that all approaches could be considered to be “effective”. Nonetheless, significantly greater self-reported likelihood and duration of compliance was associated with visibly operated approaches, irrespective of the corresponding automaticity of the approach. In addition, the impact of automaticity was influenced by visibility; such that significantly greater self-reported likelihood of compliance was associated with manually operated approaches, but only when they are operated in a less visible fashion. Conversely, manually operated approaches were associated with significantly greater durations of self-reported compliance, but only when they are operated in a highly visible manner. Taken together, the findings from Studies 1 and 2 suggest that enforcement efforts, irrespective of their visibility or automaticity, generally encourage compliance with speed limits. However, the duration of these effects on behaviour upon removal of the enforcement efforts remains questionable and represents an area where current speed enforcement practices could possibly be improved. Overall, it appears that identifying the optimal mix of enforcement operations, implementing them at a sufficient intensity and increasing the unpredictability of enforcement efforts (e.g., greater use of less visible approaches, random scheduling) are critical elements of success. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were also performed in Study 2 to investigate the punishment-related and attitudinal constructs that influence self-reported frequency of speeding behaviour. The research was based on the theoretical framework of expanded deterrence theory, augmented with three particular attitudinal constructs. Specifically, previous research examining the influence of attitudes on speeding behaviour has typically focussed on attitudes toward speeding behaviour in general only. This research sought to more comprehensively explore the influence of attitudes by also individually measuring and analysing attitudes toward speed enforcement and attitudes toward the appropriateness of speed limits on speeding behaviour. Consistent with previous research, a number of classical and expanded deterrence theory variables were found to significantly predict self-reported frequency of speeding behaviour. Significantly greater speeding behaviour was typically reported by those participants who perceived punishment associated with speeding to be less certain, who reported more frequent use of punishment avoidance strategies and who reported greater direct experiences with punishment. A number of interesting differences in the significant predictors among males and females, as well as younger and older drivers, were reported. Specifically, classical deterrence theory variables appeared most influential on the speeding behaviour of males and younger drivers, while expanded deterrence theory constructs appeared more influential for females. These findings have important implications for the development and implementation of speeding countermeasures. Of the attitudinal factors, significantly greater self-reported frequency of speeding behaviour was reported among participants who held more favourable attitudes toward speeding and who perceived speed limits to be set inappropriately low. Disappointingly, attitudes toward speed enforcement were found to have little influence on reported speeding behaviour, over and above the other deterrence theory and attitudinal constructs. Indeed, the relationship between attitudes toward speed enforcement and self-reported speeding behaviour was completely accounted for by attitudes toward speeding. Nonetheless, the complexity of attitudes toward speed enforcement are not yet fully understood and future research should more comprehensively explore the measurement of this construct. Finally, given the wealth of evidence (both in general and emerging from this program of research) highlighting the association between punishment avoidance and speeding behaviour, Study 2 also sought to investigate the factors that influence the self-reported propensity to use punishment avoidance strategies. A standard multiple regression analysis was conducted for exploratory purposes only. The results revealed that punishment-related and attitudinal factors significantly predicted approximately one fifth of the variance in the dependent variable. The perceived ability to avoid punishment, vicarious punishment experience, vicarious punishment avoidance and attitudes toward speeding were all significant predictors. Future research should examine these relationships more thoroughly and identify additional influential factors. In summary, the current program of research has a number of implications for road safety and speed enforcement policy and practice decision-making. The research highlights a number of potential avenues for the improvement of public education regarding enforcement efforts and provides a number of insights into punishment avoidance behaviours. In addition, the research adds strength to the argument that enforcement approaches should not only demonstrate effectiveness in achieving key road safety objectives, such as reduced vehicle speeds and associated crashes, but also strive to be transparent and legitimate, such that voluntary compliance is encouraged. A number of potential strategies are discussed (e.g., point-to-point speed cameras, intelligent speed adaptation. The correct mix and intensity of enforcement approaches appears critical for achieving optimum effectiveness from enforcement efforts, as well as enhancements in the unpredictability of operations and swiftness of punishment. Achievement of these goals should increase both the general and specific deterrent effects associated with enforcement through an increased perceived risk of detection and a more balanced exposure to punishment and punishment avoidance experiences.

Tax evasion, inequality, and progressive taxes : a political economy perspective

The standard approach to tax compliance applies the economics-of-crime methodology pioneered by Becker (1968): in its first application, due to Allingham and Sandmo (1972) it models the behaviour of agents as a decision involving a choice of the extent of their income to report to tax authorities, given a certain institutional environment, represented by parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties in the event the agent is caught. While this basic framework yields important insights on tax compliance behavior, it has some critical limitations. Specifically, it indicates a level of compliance that is significantly below what is observed in the data. This thesis revisits the original framework with a view towards addressing this issue, and examining the political economy implications of tax evasion for progressivity in the tax structure. The approach followed involves building a macroeconomic, dynamic equilibrium model for the purpose of examining these issues, by using a step-wise model building procedure starting with some very simple variations of the basic Allingham and Sandmo construct, which are eventually integrated to a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations framework with heterogeneous agents. One of the variations involves incorporating the Allingham and Sandmo construct into a two-period model of a small open economy of the type originally attributed to Fisher (1930). A further variation of this simple construct involves allowing agents to initially decide whether to evade taxes or not. In the event they decide to evade, the agents then have to decide the extent of income or wealth they wish to under-report. We find that the ‘evade or not’ assumption has strikingly different and more realistic implications for the extent of evasion, and demonstrate that it is a more appropriate modeling strategy in the context of macroeconomic models, which are essentially dynamic in nature, and involve consumption smoothing across time and across various states of nature. Specifically, since deciding to undertake tax evasion impacts on the consumption smoothing ability of the agent by creating two states of nature in which the agent is ‘caught’ or ‘not caught’, there is a possibility that their utility under certainty, when they choose not to evade, is higher than the expected utility obtained when they choose to evade. Furthermore, the simple two-period model incorporating an ‘evade or not’ choice can be used to demonstrate some strikingly different political economy implications relative to its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart. In variations of the two models that allow for voting on the tax parameter, we find that agents typically choose to vote for a high degree of progressivity by choosing the highest available tax rate from the menu of choices available to them. There is, however, a small range of inequality levels for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a relatively low value of the tax rate. The final steps in the model building procedure involve grafting the two-period models with a political economy choice into a dynamic overlapping generations setting with more general, non-linear tax schedules and a ‘cost-of evasion’ function that is increasing in the extent of evasion. Results based on numerical simulations of these models show further improvement in the model’s ability to match empirically plausible levels of tax evasion. In addition, the differences between the political economy implications of the ‘evade or not’ version of the model and its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart are now very striking; there is now a large range of values of the inequality parameter for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a low degree of progressivity. This is because, in the ‘evade or not’ version of the model, low values of the tax rate encourages a large number of agents to choose the ‘not-evade’ option, so that the redistributive mechanism is more ‘efficient’ relative to the situations in which tax rates are high. Some further implications of the models of this thesis relate to whether variations in the level of inequality, and parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties for tax evasion matter for the political economy results. We find that (i) the political economy outcomes for the tax rate are quite insensitive to changes in inequality, and (ii) the voting outcomes change in non-monotonic ways in response to changes in the probability of detection and penalty rates. Specifically, the model suggests that changes in inequality should not matter, although the political outcome for the tax rate for a given level of inequality is conditional on whether there is a large or small or large extent of evasion in the economy. We conclude that further theoretical research into macroeconomic models of tax evasion is required to identify the structural relationships underpinning the link between inequality and redistribution in the presence of tax evasion. The models of this thesis provide a necessary first step in that direction.

Socioeconomic status and health outcomes in a developing country

Although the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and health is well documented for developed countries, less evidence has been presented for developing countries. The aim of this paper is to analyse this relationship at the household level for Fiji, a developing country in the South Pacific, using original household survey data. To allow for the endogeneity of SES status in the household health production function, we utilize a simultaneous equation approach where estimates are achieved by full information maximum likelihood. By restricting our sample to one, relatively small island, and including area and district hospital effects, physical geography effects are unpacked from income effects. We measure SES, as permanent income which is constructed using principal components analysis. An alternative specification considers transitory household income. We find that a 1% increase in wealth (our measure of permanent income) would lead to a 15% decrease in the probability of an incapacitating illness occurring intra-household. Although the presence of a strong relationship indicates that relatively small improvements in SES status can significantly improve health at the household level, it is argued that the design of appropriate policy would also require an understanding of the various mechanisms through which the relationship operates.

Biology or behavior : which is the strongest contributor to weight gain?

Combating unhealthy weight gain is a major public health and clinical management issue. The extent of research into the etiology and pathophysiology of obesity has produced a wealth of evidence regarding the contributing factors. While aspects of the environment are ‘obesogenic’, weight gain is not inevitable for every individual. What then explains potentially unhealthy weight gain in individuals living within an environment where others remain lean? In this paper we explore the biological compensation that acts in response to a reduced energy intake by reducing energy needs, in order to defend against weight loss. We then examine the evidence that there is only a weak biological compensation to surplus energy supply, and that this allows behavior to drive weight gain. The extent to which biology impacts behavior is also considered.

Porosity of serially sectioned interplanetary dust particles

The application of epoxy embedding and microtomy to individual chondritic interplanetary dust particles (lOP's)(Bradley and Brownlee, 1986a) provides not only higher precision in thin-film elemental analyses (Bradley and Brownlee, 19861:1), but also allows a wealth of other important techniques for the micro-characterization of these primitive extraterrestrial materials. For example, individual sections (e.g. 100 nm thick) or a series of sections, can be examined using image analysis techniques which utilize either transmitted or scanned secondary electron images, or alternatively, secondary X-ray spectra collected concurrently from a given region of sample. Individual particles, or groups of particles with similar image characteristics can then be rapidly identified using conventional grey-scale/particle recognition techniques for each microtomed section of lOP. This type of image analysis provides a suitable method for determination of particle size and shape distribution as well as porosity throughout the aggregate.

The social mechanism of political deliberation and citizen participation in Guangdong China

Many studies have focused on why deliberative institutions should be established in order to develop Chinese people’s citizenry skills; however few focus on the social conditions and public sentiments that shape the development of deliberative mechanisms. Skills and awareness of citizenry is not only brought into being by deliberative institutions that are set up by the government, but evolve through interplays between technologies and social changes. As a test-bed for economic reform Guangdong is increasingly identified by translocality and hybrid culture. This is framed by identity conflict and unrests, much of which is due to soaring wealth polarisation, high volumes of population movement, cultural collisions and ongoing linguistic contestations. These unrests show the region’s transformation goes beyond the economic front. Profound changes are occurring at what anthropologists and philosophers call the changing social conciseness or moral landscape (Ci, 1994; Yan, 2010). The changing social moralities are a reflection of the awareness of individuals’ rights and responsibilities, and their interdependencies from dominant ideologies. This paper discusses Guangdong’s social and cultural characteristics, and questions how existing social conditions allow the staging of political deliberation by facilitating political engagement and the formation of public opinion. The paper will investigate the tragedy of Xiao Yueyue in Foshan, Guangdong, where ‘right’ and ‘responsibility’, ‘self’ and ‘other’ define the public sentiments of deliberation and participation.

From entrepreneur to philanthropist : the “second half of the game”

This paper uses interviews with wealthy Australians to examine the progression from entrepreneurship to philanthropy in an Australian context. Understanding the characteristics, behaviours and motivations of this group of entrepreneurs turned philanthropists strengthens the links identified in international research between the entrepreneurship and philanthropic sectors. Three major themes emerging from the qualitative data are explored: first, the tipping points that move individuals (and their partners/families) between the two spheres of activity; and second, the strong motivations for giving that see entrepreneurs identified internationally as more generous than high net worth individuals whose wealth derives from other sources. The third major theme is the modes of giving that distinguish those with an entrepreneurship background from other philanthropists. The unique characteristics of a smaller sub-set of ultra high net worth donors are also explored, and areas for future study are highlighted.

Dynamic lifecycle strategies for target date retirement funds

Target date retirement funds have gained favor with retirement plan investors in recent years. Typically, these funds initially have a high allocation to stocks but move towards less volatile assets, such as bonds and cash, as the target retirement date approaches. Empirical research has generally found that a switch to low-risk assets prior to retirement can reduce the risk of confronting the most extreme negative outcomes. This article questions the rationale for lifecycle switching based solely on age or target retirement date as is the prevalent practice among target date funds. The authors argue that a dynamic switching strategy, which takes into consideration achieved investment returns, will produce superior returns for most investors compared to conventional lifecycle switching. In this article, the authors put forward a dynamic lifecycle switching strategy that is conditional on the attainment of the plan member's wealth accumulation objective at every stage of switching.

Agricultural biodiversity, farm level technical efficiency and conservation benefits : an empirical investigation

The issues involved in agricultural biodiversity are important and interesting areas for the application of economic theory. However, very little theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken to understand the benefits of conserving agricultural biodiversity. Accordingly, the main objectives of this PhD thesis are to: (1) Investigate farmers’ valuation of agricultural biodiversity; (2) Identify factors influencing farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity; (3) Examine farmers’ demand for biodiversity rich farming systems; (4) Investigate the relationship between agricultural biodiversity and farm level technical efficiency. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data in small-scale farms, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarized as follows. Firstly, owing to educational and poverty issues of those being interviewed, some policy makers in developed countries question whether non-market valuation techniques such as Choice Experiment (CE) can be applied to developing countries such as Sri Lanka. The CE study in this thesis indicates that carefully designed and pre-tested nonmarket valuation techniques can be applied in developing countries with a high level of reliability. The CE findings support the priori assumption that small-scale farms and their multiple attributes contribute positively and significantly to the utility of farm families in Sri Lanka. Farmers have strong positive attitudes towards increasing agricultural biodiversity in rural areas. This suggests that these attitudes can be the basis on which appropriate policies can be introduced to improve agricultural biodiversity. Secondly, the thesis identifies the factors which influence farmers’ demand for agricultural biodiversity and farmers’ demands on biodiversity rich farming systems. As such they provide important tools for the implementation of policies designed to avoid the loss agricultural biodiversity which is shown to be a major impediment to agricultural growth and sustainable development in a number of developing countries. The results illustrate that certain key household, market and other characteristics (such as agricultural subsidies, percentage of investment of owned money and farm size) are the major determinants of demand for agricultural biodiversity on small-scale farms. The significant household characteristics that determine crop and livestock diversity include household member participation on the farm, off-farm income, shared labour, market price fluctuations and household wealth. Furthermore, it is shown that all the included market characteristics as well as agricultural subsidies are also important determinants of agricultural biodiversity. Thirdly, it is found that when the efficiency of agricultural production is measured in practice, the role of agricultural biodiversity has rarely been investigated in the literature. The results in the final section of the thesis show that crop diversity, livestock diversity and mix farming system are positively related to farm level technical efficiency. In addition to these variables education level, number of separate plots, agricultural extension service, credit access, membership of farm organization and land ownerships are significant and direct policy relevant variables in the inefficiency model. The results of the study therefore have important policy implications for conserving agricultural biodiversity in Sri Lanka.

The classic white formal shirt : a powerful emblem of social change

The classic white formal shirt is a widely and readily familiar object with considerable historical cultural significance to diverse social groups, and is therefore deserving of iconic status. For more than two hundred years, this singular item of apparel has been able to define and represent status, wealth, gender shifts and fashion norms. This garment, which has historically been relinquished to undergarment status, deserves an escalation of standing. The classic white formal shirt, for both men and women, can be used as a mirror to map considerable social change and the diversity of influence can be traced through many examples, including: Beau Brummell’s dandy status with his legendry white shirting; the Gibson Girl with her decorated white shirt style blouse defining ideals of female beauty; IBM business employees in the 1920s marketing trustworthiness through the uniformity of white shirts; the fictional advertising creation of the Arrow Collar Man, with his rigid white shirt, promoting American masculine ideals; and the iconic 1980s Hugo Boss style crisp white dress shirt symbolising power. The origins of the influence of the white shirt can be best traced in the Victorian era where it was an important symbol of wealth and class distinction and a powerful emblem of sobriety and uniformity for men. The pure white colour fulfilled masculine ideals of resolute austerity and the shirt, through its constancy, epitomised conformity and dependability. For women, the white cloth of the ‘shirt-waist’ from this period was also linked to ideals of cleanliness and purity and was seen as an iconic symbol of the new independent working class woman. This paper will propose that the classic white formal shirt, for both men and women, has been a powerful marker of social shifts in Western society and this underrated item of apparel, with limited scholarly writing, is worthy of iconic status. The discussion will trace the historical development of both the men’s and women’s white shirt, each with their own unique history, and in doing so highlight the considerable historical cultural significance associated with the white formal shirt. Discussed first will be the men’s white formal shirt.

Integrating agency and resource dependence theory : firm profitability, industry regulation, and board task performance

Boards of directors are key governancemechanisms in organizations and fulfill twomain tasks:monitoringmanagers and firm performance, and providing advice and access to resources. In spite of a wealth of researchmuch remains unknown about how boards attend to the two tasks. This study investigates whether organizational (firm profitability) and environmental factors (industry regulation) affect board task performance. The data combine CEOs' responses to a questionnaire, and archival data from a sample of large Italian firms. Findings show that past firm performance is negatively associatedwith board monitoring and advice tasks; greater industry regulation enhances perceived board task performance; board monitoring and advice tasks tend to reinforce each other, despite their theoretical and practical distinction.

Host location behaviour in the desert caterpillar, Heliothis punctifera

The host location behaviour of foraging caterpillars has received little attention, despite the wealth of theoretical and empirical studies that have been directed at this behavioural trait in adult Lepidoptera. Here, we study caterpillars of the moth Heliothis punctifera Walker (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), which inhabits the arid inland desert areas of Australia. Caterpillars of this species consume many flowerheads before completing development and can be observed moving across the sand in search of new hosts. Consequently, if host location behaviour favours attraction to certain plant species, it might be expected to influence the distribution and abundance of caterpillars in the field. We present field data showing that H. punctifera caterpillars are unevenly distributed throughout mixed patches of two of its host species, with a higher abundance on Senecio gregorii F. Muell., the annual yellow top, compared to Myriocephalus stuartii (F. Muell. & Sond.) Benth., the poached egg daisy (both Asteraceae). Using laboratory studies, we test whether this distribution may, in part, be due to host location behaviour of caterpillars. Our results show that caterpillars exhibit a preference for locating S. gregorii in their pre- and post-contact foraging behaviour. In addition, our results provide evidence that feeding history plays a role in host location behaviour in this insect. We propose that key features of the desert environment and the ecology of H. punctifera would favour adaptations to host location behaviour by immatures.

The Art of Freestyle

"This book is intended to be instructional, inspirational and of interest to both novice and expert alike. The assumption is made that to even begin to playboat the paddler will already be an intermdiate white water boater familiar with basic strokes and boating skills. For the interested non paddler a glossary of terms is included. Part One gives an overview of the sport and lays the foundations of understanding on which the rest of the book builds, as well as exploring safety issues and exploring key concepts. Part Two describes and coaches the moves which are divided into intermediate and advanced standard. Part Three looks at how to train in order to hone your physical and mental skills and be 'the best you can be'. Never before has so much freestyle, rodeo and playboating information from so many great boaters been gathered together in one place. In a world dominated by the biggest, the fastest, the loudest...the most big headed, this book makes a stand. Whilst of course covering all the latest moves, the authors have not been frightened to start right back at basic concepts. Technical ability is nothing without knowledge, without planning and without stamina. This book tells you the secrets. Freestyle is a thinking person's sport. The authors, the contributors and the book's publisher have an unrivalled breadth of knowledge in this field, so let this book do some of the thinking for you. The full colour format and the emphasis on personal training and coaching make for a particularly easy read. When planning my preparation or training before a competition, I always try to evaluate its potential benefits in terms of how many places it will have helped me move up in the final results. As a general rule in life, any time spent off the water should be viewed with suspicion! However, use this time constructively and absorb the information in this book and you will reap your own rewards. The Art of Freestyle is a book genuinely written by paddlers for paddlers. It is often a hard task to get top athletes to part with their preferred training or competition techniques, but this book is full of such 'Top Tips'. This is not a book written just by its authors, but by a wealth of accomplished paddlers. It is this subtle combination that keeps the reader in the real world...believing in a move, not just imagining it. This is the real world...believe you can do it."--Playak Website

Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.