Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Investigation and prediction of sea level variations in the northern coasts of Persian Gulf using artificial neural network

Sea- level variations have a significant impact on coastal areas. Prediction of sea level variations expected from the pre most critical information needs associated with the sea environment. For this, various methods exist. In this study, on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf have been studied relation to the effectiveness of parameters such as pressure, temperature and wind speed on sea leve and associated with global parameters such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index and NAO index and present statistic models for prediction of sea level. In the next step by using artificial neural network predict sea level for first in this region. Then compared results of the models. Prediction using statistical models estimated in terms correlation coefficient R = 0.84 and root mean square error (RMS) 21.9 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.85 and root mean square error (RMS) 48.4 cm for Rajai station, While neural network used to have 4 layers and each middle layer six neurons is best for prediction and produces the results reliably in terms of correlation coefficient with R = 0.90126 and the root mean square error (RMS) 13.7 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.93916 and the root mean square error (RMS) 22.6 cm for Rajai station. Therefore, the proposed methodology could be successfully used in the study area.

Neural Network Based UAV Fault Tolerant Control with Aerodynamic Disturbance Estimation and Compensation

In this thesis, the problem of controlling a quadrotor UAV is considered. It is done by presenting an original control system, designed as a combination of Neural Networks and Disturbance Observer, using a composite learning approach for a system of the second order, which is a novel methodology in literature. After a brief introduction about the quadrotors, the concepts needed to understand the controller are presented, such as the main notions of advanced control, the basic structure and design of a Neural Network, the modeling of a quadrotor and its dynamics. The full simulator, developed on the MATLAB Simulink environment, used throughout the whole thesis, is also shown. For the guidance and control purposes, a Sliding Mode Controller, used as a reference, it is firstly introduced, and its theory and implementation on the simulator are illustrated. Finally the original controller is introduced, through its novel formulation, and implementation on the model. The effectiveness and robustness of the two controllers are then proven by extensive simulations in all different conditions of external disturbance and faults.

Investigating perceptual multisensory impairments in Autism through a neural network: a possible neural implementation for the shift from cross-modal competition to facilitation

Resolution of multisensory deficits has been observed in teenagers with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) for complex, social speech stimuli; this resolution extends to more basic multisensory processing, involving low-level stimuli. In particular, a delayed transition of multisensory integration (MSI) from a default state of competition to one of facilitation has been observed in ASD children. In other terms, the complete maturation of MSI is achieved later in ASD. In the present study a neuro-computational model is used to reproduce some patterns of behavior observed experimentally, modeling a bisensory reaction time task, in which auditory and visual stimuli are presented in random sequence alone (A or V) or together (AV). The model explains how the default competitive state can be implemented via mutual inhibition between primary sensory areas, and how the shift toward the classical multisensory facilitation, observed in adults, is the result of inhibitory cross-modal connections becoming excitatory during the development. Model results are consistent with a stronger cross-modal inhibition in ASD children, compared to normotypical (NT) ones, suggesting that the transition toward a cooperative interaction between sensory modalities takes longer to occur. Interestingly, the model also predicts the difference between unisensory switch trials (in which sensory modality switches) and unisensory repeat trials (in which sensory modality repeats). This is due to an inhibitory mechanism, characterized by a slow dynamics, driven by the preceding stimulus and inhibiting the processing of the incoming one, when of the opposite sensory modality. These findings link the cognitive framework delineated by the empirical results to a plausible neural implementation.

Convolutional Neural Network Architectures for Template Matching

The Neural Networks customized and tested in this thesis (WaldoNet, FlowNet and PatchNet) are a first exploration and approach to the Template Matching task. The possibilities of extension are therefore many and some are proposed below. During my thesis, I have analyzed the functioning of the classical algorithms and adapted with deep learning algorithms. The features extracted from both the template and the query images resemble the keypoints of the SIFT algorithm. Then, instead of similarity function or keypoints matching, WaldoNet and PatchNet use the convolutional layer to compare the features, while FlowNet uses the correlational layer. In addition, I have identified the major challenges of the Template Matching task (affine/non-affine transformations, intensity changes...) and solved them with a careful design of the dataset.

Neural Network based Non Orthogonal Random Access for 6G NTN-IoT

Pervasive and distributed Internet of Things (IoT) devices demand ubiquitous coverage beyond No-man’s land. To satisfy plethora of IoT devices with resilient connectivity, Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN) will be pivotal to assist and complement terrestrial systems. In a massiveMTC scenario over NTN, characterized by sporadic uplink data reports, all the terminals within a satellite beam shall be served during the short visibility window of the flying platform, thus generating congestion due to simultaneous access attempts of IoT devices on the same radio resource. The more terminals collide, the more average-time it takes to complete an access which is due to the decreased number of successful attempts caused by Back-off commands of legacy methods. A possible countermeasure is represented by Non-Orthogonal Multiple Access scheme, which requires the knowledge of the number of superimposed NPRACH preambles. This work addresses this problem by proposing a Neural Network (NN) algorithm to cope with the uncoordinated random access performed by a prodigious number of Narrowband-IoT devices. Our proposed method classifies the number of colliding users, and for each estimates the Time of Arrival (ToA). The performance assessment, under Line of Sight (LoS) and Non-LoS conditions in sub-urban environments with two different satellite configurations, shows significant benefits of the proposed NN algorithm with respect to traditional methods for the ToA estimation.

An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection and classification of voltage disturbances using a Fuzzy-ARTMAP-wavelet network

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gear dynamics monitoring using discrete wavelet transformation and multi-layer perceptron neural networks

This paper presents a multi-stage algorithm for the dynamic condition monitoring of a gear. The algorithm provides information referred to the gear status (fault or normal condition) and estimates the mesh stiffness per shaft revolution in case that any abnormality is detected. In the first stage, the analysis of coefficients generated through discrete wavelet transformation (DWT) is proposed as a fault detection and localization tool. The second stage consists in establishing the mesh stiffness reduction associated with local failures by applying a supervised learning mode and coupled with analytical models. To do this, a multi-layer perceptron neural network has been configured using as input features statistical parameters sensitive to torsional stiffness decrease and derived from wavelet transforms of the response signal. The proposed method is applied to the gear condition monitoring and results show that it can update the mesh dynamic properties of the gear on line.

Detection of patients with functional dyspepsia using wavelet transform applied to their electrogastrogram

The aim of the present study was to develop a classifier able to discriminate between healthy controls and dyspeptic patients by analysis of their electrogastrograms. Fifty-six electrogastrograms were analyzed, corresponding to 42 dyspeptic patients and 14 healthy controls. The original signals were subsampled, filtered and divided into the pre-, post-, and prandial stages. A time-frequency transformation based on wavelets was used to extract the signal characteristics, and a special selection procedure based on correlation was used to reduce their number. The analysis was carried out by evaluating different neural network structures to classify the wavelet coefficients into two groups (healthy subjects and dyspeptic patients). The optimization process of the classifier led to a linear model. A dimension reduction that resulted in only 25% of uncorrelated electrogastrogram characteristics gave 24 inputs for the classifier. The prandial stage gave the most significant results. Under these conditions, the classifier achieved 78.6% sensitivity, 92.9% specificity, and an error of 17.9 ± 6% (with a 95% confidence level). These data show that it is possible to establish significant differences between patients and normal controls when time-frequency characteristics are extracted from an electrogastrogram, with an adequate component reduction, outperforming the results obtained with classical Fourier analysis. These findings can contribute to increasing our understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in functional dyspepsia and perhaps to improving the pharmacological treatment of functional dyspeptic patients.

Comparison of extrasystolic ECG signal classifiers using discrete wavelet transforms

This work compares and contrasts results of classifying time-domain ECG signals with pathological conditions taken from the MITBIH arrhythmia database. Linear discriminant analysis and a multi-layer perceptron were used as classifiers. The neural network was trained by two different methods, namely back-propagation and a genetic algorithm. Converting the time-domain signal into the wavelet domain reduced the dimensionality of the problem at least 10-fold. This was achieved using wavelets from the db6 family as well as using adaptive wavelets generated using two different strategies. The wavelet transforms used in this study were limited to two decomposition levels. A neural network with evolved weights proved to be the best classifier with a maximum of 99.6% accuracy when optimised wavelet-transform ECG data wits presented to its input and 95.9% accuracy when the signals presented to its input were decomposed using db6 wavelets. The linear discriminant analysis achieved a maximum classification accuracy of 95.7% when presented with optimised and 95.5% with db6 wavelet coefficients. It is shown that the much simpler signal representation of a few wavelet coefficients obtained through an optimised discrete wavelet transform facilitates the classification of non-stationary time-variant signals task considerably. In addition, the results indicate that wavelet optimisation may improve the classification ability of a neural network. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the application of optimal wavelet filter banks for ECG signal classification

This paper discusses ECG signal classification after parametrizing the ECG waveforms in the wavelet domain. Signal decomposition using perfect reconstruction quadrature mirror filter banks can provide a very parsimonious representation of ECG signals. In the current work, the filter parameters are adjusted by a numerical optimization algorithm in order to minimize a cost function associated to the filter cut-off sharpness. The goal consists of achieving a better compromise between frequency selectivity and time resolution at each decomposition level than standard orthogonal filter banks such as those of the Daubechies and Coiflet families. Our aim is to optimally decompose the signals in the wavelet domain so that they can be subsequently used as inputs for training to a neural network classifier.

A WAVELET-BASED SPEAKER VERIFICATION ALGORITHM

This paper presents a study on wavelets and their characteristics for the specific purpose of serving as a feature extraction tool for speaker verification (SV), considering a Radial Basis Function (RBF) classifier, which is a particular type of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Examining characteristics such as support-size, frequency and phase responses, amongst others, we show how Discrete Wavelet Transforms (DWTs), particularly the ones which derive from Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filters, can be used to extract important features from a speech signal which are useful for SV. Lastly, an SV algorithm based on the concepts presented is described.

Sistema inteligente para detecção de vazamentos em dutos de petróleo usando transformada Wavelet e redes neurais

This work consists in the use of techniques of signals processing and artificial neural networks to identify leaks in pipes with multiphase flow. In the traditional methods of leak detection exists a great difficulty to mount a profile, that is adjusted to the found in real conditions of the oil transport. These difficult conditions go since the unevenly soil that cause columns or vacuum throughout pipelines until the presence of multiphases like water, gas and oil; plus other components as sand, which use to produce discontinuous flow off and diverse variations. To attenuate these difficulties, the transform wavelet was used to map the signal pressure in different resolution plan allowing the extraction of descriptors that identify leaks patterns and with then to provide training for the neural network to learning of how to classify this pattern and report whenever this characterize leaks. During the tests were used transient and regime signals and pipelines with punctures with size variations from ½' to 1' of diameter to simulate leaks and between Upanema and Estreito B, of the UN-RNCE of the Petrobras, where it was possible to detect leaks. The results show that the proposed descriptors considered, based in statistical methods applied in domain transform, are sufficient to identify leaks patterns and make it possible to train the neural classifier to indicate the occurrence of pipeline leaks

Detecção e classificação de curto-circuitos em sistemas de distribuição usando rede neural artificial ARTMAP nebulosa

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)