Effect of bicarbonate and lactate buffer on glucose and lactate metabolism during hemodiafiltration in patients with multiple organ failure.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effects of sodium bicarbonate and lactate for continuous veno-venous hemodiafiltration (CVVHDF) in critically ill patients. DESIGN AND SETTINGS: Prospective crossed-over controlled trial in the surgical and medical ICUs of a university hospital. PATIENTS: Eight patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) requiring CVVHDF. INTERVENTION: Each patient received the two buffers in a randomized sequence over two consecutive days. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: The following variables were determined: acid-base parameters, lactate production and utilization ((13)C lactate infusion), glucose turnover (6,6(2)H(2)-glucose), gas exchange (indirect calorimetry). No side effect was observed during lactate administration. Baseline arterial acid-base variables were equal with the two buffers. Arterial lactate (2.9 versus 1.5 mmol/l), glycemia (+18%) and glucose turnover (+23%) were higher in the lactate period. Bicarbonate and glucose losses in CVVHDF were substantial, but not lactate elimination. Infusing (13)C lactate increased plasma lactate levels equally with the two buffers. Lactate clearance (7.8+/-0.8 vs 7.5+/-0.8 ml/kg per min in the bicarbonate and lactate periods) and endogenous production rates (14.0+/-2.6 vs 13.6+/-2.6 mmol/kg per min) were similar. (13)C lactate was used as a metabolic substrate, as shown by (13)CO(2) excretion. Glycemia and metabolic rate increased significantly and similarly during the two periods during lactate infusion. CONCLUSION: Lactate was rapidly cleared from the blood of critically ill patients without acute liver failure requiring CVVHDF, being transformed into glucose or oxidized. Lactate did not exert undesirable effects, except moderate hyperglycemia, and achieved comparable effects on acid-base balance to bicarbonate.

Self-reported non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy repeatedly assessed by two questions predicts treatment failure in virologically suppressed patients.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to explore the predictive value of longitudinal self-reported adherence data on viral rebound. METHODS: Individuals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) with RNA <50 copies/ml over the previous 3 months and who were interviewed about adherence at least once prior to 1 March 2007 were eligible. Adherence was defined in terms of missed doses of cART (0, 1, 2 or >2) in the previous 28 days. Viral rebound was defined as RNA >500 copies/ml. Cox regression models with time-independent and -dependent covariates were used to evaluate time to viral rebound. RESULTS: A total of 2,664 individuals and 15,530 visits were included. Across all visits, missing doses were reported as follows: 1 dose 14.7%, 2 doses 5.1%, >2 doses 3.8% taking <95% of doses 4.5% and missing > or =2 consecutive doses 3.2%. In total, 308 (11.6%) patients experienced viral rebound. After controlling for confounding variables, self-reported non-adherence remained significantly associated with the rate of occurrence of viral rebound (compared with zero missed doses: 1 dose, hazard ratio [HR] 1.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-1.48; 2 doses, HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.46-3.25; >2 doses, HR 3.66, 95% CI 2.50-5.34). Several variables significantly associated with an increased risk of viral rebound irrespective of adherence were identified: being on a protease inhibitor or triple nucleoside regimen (compared with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor), >5 previous cART regimens, seeing a less-experienced physician, taking co-medication, and a shorter time virally suppressed. CONCLUSIONS: A simple self-report adherence questionnaire repeatedly administered provides a sensitive measure of non-adherence that predicts viral rebound.

Patterns of failure and outcome in patients with carcinoma of the anal margin.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the outcome of patients with carcinoma of anal margin in terms of recurrence, survival, and radiation toxicity. METHODS: A series of 45 consecutive patients, with anal margin carcinoma treated between 1983 and 2006 with curative intent at two institutions, was retrospectively analyzed. A surgical excision (close or positive surgical margin in 22 out of 29 patients) was realized before radiotherapy (RT). RT consisted of definitive external beam RT (EBRT) in 36 patients, brachytherapy (BT) alone in two patients, and both BT and EBRT in seven patients. The median total radiation dose was 59.4 Gy (range, 30-74 Gy). RESULTS: The 5-year locoregional control (LRC) rate was 78% [95% confidence interval (CI), 64-93%]. The 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) rates were respectively 86% (95% CI, 72-99%) and 55% (95% CI, 44-66%). The overall anal conservation rate was 80% for the whole series. There was no significant association between local recurrence and patient age, histological grade, tumor size, T stage, overall treatment time, RT dose, or chemotherapy. Long-term side effects were observed in 15 patients (33%). Only three patients developed grade 3-4 late toxicity (CTCAE/NCI v3.0). Significant relationship was found between dose, and complication rate (48% for dose >or=59.4 Gy versus 8% for dose < 59.4 Gy; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that definitive RT and/or BT yield a good local control and disease-specific survival comparable with published data. This study suggests that radiation dose over 59.4 Gy seems to increase treatment-related morbidity.

Feasibility of non-invasive pressure support ventilation in infants with respiratory failure after extubation: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility and effects of non-invasive pressure support ventilation (NIV) on the breathing pattern in infants developing respiratory failure after extubation. DESIGN: Prospective pilot clinical study; each patient served as their own control. SETTING: A nine-bed paediatric intensive care unit of a tertiary university hospital. PATIENTS: Six patients (median age 5 months, range 0.5-7 months; median weight 4.2 kg, range 3.8-5.1 kg) who developed respiratory failure after extubation. INTERVENTIONS: After a period of spontaneous breathing (SB), children who developed respiratory failure were treated with NIV. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Measurements included clinical dyspnoea score (DS), blood gases and oesophageal pressure recordings, which were analysed for respiratory rate (RR), oesophageal inspiratory pressure swing (dPes) and oesophageal pressure-time product (PTPes). All data were collected during both periods (SB and NIV). When comparing NIV with SB, DS was reduced by 44% (P < 0.001), RR by 32% (P < 0.001), dPes by 45% (P < 0.01) and PTPes by 57% (P < 0.001). A non-significant trend for decrease in PaCO(2) was observed. CONCLUSION: In these infants, non-invasive pressure support ventilation with turbine flow generator induced a reduction of breathing frequency, dPes and PTPes, indicating reduced load of the inspiratory muscles. NIV can be used with some benefits in infants with respiratory failure after extubation.

Bolus injections of synthetic atrial natriuretic peptide in patients with chronic renal failure or nephrotic syndrome.

The diuretic and natriuretic responses to exogenous synthetic atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) were evaluated in patients with chronic renal failure (CRF) or nephrotic syndrome (NS). Patients were studied after an oral water load (8 ml/kg in CRF and 20 ml/kg in NS patients). A short intravenous bolus of either a placebo or ANP was administered when urine output was stable. In each group of patients, three doses of ANP were injected at 24 h intervals, i.e., 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 micrograms/kg in the CRF and 1.0, 1.5, and 3.0 micrograms/kg in the NS group. Blood pressure and heart rate were monitored throughout the study and urinary volume and electrolyte excretion were measured every 20 min up to 3 h after the bolus. An acute and transient fall in blood pressure was observed immediately after the ANP injection. It was more pronounced in CRF than in NS patients. In CRF patients, ANP caused only a slight increase in urinary volume (13.5-44% over baseline) but a significant increase in urinary sodium excretion (45-114% over baseline). In NS patients, significant increases in both urine volume (60-105%) and sodium excretion (149-248%) were also found. In these latter patients, the renal response to ANP appeared to be better preserved. The hemodynamic and renal changes induced by ANP occurred mainly during the first 20 min following the ANP administration, when the peak plasma ANP levels were obtained. However, no clear dose-response effect could be evidenced in either group with the three doses of ANP chosen in this study.

Efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir-based therapy for treatment-experienced HIV-infected patients: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Darunavir was designed for activity against HIV resistant to other protease inhibitors (PIs). We assessed the efficacy, tolerability and risk factors for virological failure of darunavir for treatment-experienced patients seen in clinical practice. METHODS: We included all patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study starting darunavir after recording a viral load above 1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL given prior exposure to both PIs and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. We followed these patients for up to 72 weeks, assessed virological failure using different loss of virological response algorithms and evaluated risk factors for virological failure using a Bayesian method to fit discrete Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 130 treatment-experienced patients starting darunavir, the median age was 47 years, the median duration of HIV infection was 16 years, and 82% received mono or dual antiretroviral therapy before starting highly active antiretroviral therapy. During a median patient follow-up period of 45 weeks, 17% of patients stopped taking darunavir after a median exposure of 20 weeks. In patients followed beyond 48 weeks, the rate of virological failure at 48 weeks was at most 20%. Virological failure was more likely where patients had previously failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and as the number of previously failed PI regimens increased. CONCLUSIONS: As a component of therapy for treatment-experienced patients, darunavir can achieve a similar efficacy and tolerability in clinical practice to that seen in clinical trials. Clinicians should consider whether a patient has failed on both amprenavir and saquinavir and the number of failed PI regimens before prescribing darunavir.

Pneumocystis jirovecii genotype associated with increased death rate of HIV-infected patients with pneumonia.

Pneumocystis jirovecii dihydropteroate synthase (DHPS) mutations have been associated with failure of sulfa prophylaxis; their effect on the outcome of patients with P. jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) remains controversial. P. jirovecii DHPS polymorphisms and genotypes were identified in 112 cases of PCP in 110 HIV-infected patients by using PCR single-strand conformation polymorphism. Of the 110 patients observed, 21 died; 18 of those deaths were attributed to PCP. Thirty-three percent of the PCP cases involved a P. jirovecii strain that had 1 or both DHPS mutations. The presence or absence of DHPS mutations had no effect on the PCP mortality rate within 1 month, whereas P.jirovecii type 7 and mechanical ventilation at PCP diagnosis were associated with an increased risk of death caused by PCP. Mechanical ventilation at PCP diagnosis was also associated with an increased risk of sulfa treatment failure at 5 days.

Poxvirus vector-based HIV vaccines.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In this review, we will provide the scientific rationale for the use of poxvirus vectors in the field of HIV vaccines, the immunological profile of the vaccine-induced immune responses, an update on the current use of poxvirus vector-based vaccines in HIV vaccine clinical trials, and the development of new modified poxvirus vectors with improved immunological profile. RECENT FINDINGS: An Ad5-HIV vaccine was tested in a phase IIb clinical trial (known as the Step trial). Vaccinations in the Step trial were discontinued because the vaccine did not show any effect on acquisition of infection and on viral load. After the disappointing failure of the Step trial, the field of HIV vaccine has regained enthusiasm and vigour due to the promising protective effect observed in the phase III efficacy trial (known as RV-144) performed in Thailand which has tested a poxvirus-gp120 combination. SUMMARY: The RV-144 phase III has provided for the first time evidence that an HIV vaccine can prevent HIV infection. The results from the RV-144 trial are providing the scientific rationale for the future development of the HIV vaccine field and for designing future efficacy trials.

Cardiac raptor deletion impairs adaptive hypertrophy, alters metabolic gene expression and causes heart failure in mice

Background: Mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), a central regulator of cell growth, is found in two structurally and functionally distinct multiprotein complexes called mTOR complex (mTORC)1 and mTORC2. The specific roles of each of these branches of mTOR signaling have not been dissected in the adult heart. In the present study, we aimed to bring new insights into the function of cardiac mTORC1-mediated signaling in physiological as well as pathological situations.Methods: We generated mice homozygous for loxP-flanked raptor and positive for the tamoxifen-inducible Cre recombinase (MerCreMer) under control of the α- myosin heavy chain promoter. The raptor gene encodes an essential component of mTORC1. Gene ablation was induced at the age of 10-12 weeks, and two weeks later the raptor cardiac-knockout (raptor-cKO) mice started voluntary cagewheel exercise or were subjected to transverse aortic constriction (TAC) to induce pressure overload.Results: In sedentary raptor-cKO mice, ejection fractions gradually decreased, resulting in significantly reduced values at 38 days (P < 0.001). Raptor-cKO mice started to die during the fifth week after the last tamoxifen injection. At that time, the mortality rate was 36% in sedentary (n = 11) and 64% in exercising (n = 14) mice. TAC-induced pressure overload resulted in severe cardiac dysfunction already at earlier timepoints. Thus, at 7-9 days after surgery, ejection fraction and fractional shortening values were 22.3% vs 43.5% and 10.2% vs 21.5% in raptor-cKO vs wild-type mice, respectively. This was accompanied by significant reductions of ventricular wall and septal thickness as well as an increase in left ventricular internal diameter. Moreover, ventricular weight to tibial length ratios were increased in wild-type, but not in the raptor-cKO TAC mice. Together, this shows that raptor-cKO mice rapidly developed dilated cardiomyopathy without going through a phase of adaptive hypertrophy. Expression of ANP and β-MHC was induced in all raptor-cKO mice irrespective of the cardiac load conditions. Consistent with reduced mTORC1 activity, phosphorylation of ribosomal S6 kinase and 4E-BP1 was blunted, indicating reduced protein synthesis. Moreover, expression of multiple genes involved in the regulation of energy metabolism was altered, and followed by a shift from fatty acid to glucose oxidation.Conclusion: Our study suggests that mTORC1 coordinates protein and energy metabolic pathways in the heart. Moreover, we demonstrate that raptor is essential for the cardiac adaptation to increased workload and importantly, also for normal physiological cardiac function.

Subclinical Thyroid Dysfunction and the Risk of Heart Failure in Older Persons at High Cardiovascular Risk.

Context: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction is common in older people. However, its clinical importance is uncertain. Objective: Our objective was to determine the extent to which subclinical hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism influence the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular diseases in older people. Setting and Design: The Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) is an prospective cohort study. Patients: Patients included men and women aged 70-82 yr (n = 5316) with known cardiovascular risk factors or previous cardiovascular disease. Main Outcome Measures: Incidence rate of heart failure hospitalization, atrial fibrillation, and cardiovascular events and mortality according to baseline thyroid status were evaluated. Euthyroid participants (TSH =0.45-4.5 mIU/liter) were compared with those with subclinical hyperthyroidism (TSH <0.45 mIU/liter) and those with subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.5 mIU/liter, both with normal free T(4)). Results: Subclinical hyperthyroidism was present in 71 participants and subclinical hypothyroidism in 199 participants. Over 3.2 yr follow-up, the rate of heart failure was higher for subclinical hyperthyroidism compared with euthyroidism [age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.37-6.24, P = 0.005; multivariate-adjusted HR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.52-7.02, P = 0.002). Subclinical hypothyroidism (only at threshold >10 mIU/liter) was associated with heart failure (age- and sex-adjusted HR = 3.01, 95% CI = 1.12-8.11, P = 0.029; multivariate HR = 2.28, 95% CI = 0.84-6.23). There were no strong evidence of an association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cardiovascular events or mortality, except in those with TSH below 0.1 or over 10 mIU/liter and not taking pravastatin. Conclusion: Older people at high cardiovascular risk with low or very high TSH along with normal free T(4) appear at increased risk of incident heart failure.

Does short-term virologic failure translate to clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in clinical practice?

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether differences in short-term virologic failure among commonly used antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens translate to differences in clinical events in antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating ART. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of patients initiating ART between January 2000 and December 2005. SETTING: The Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) is a collaboration of 15 HIV cohort studies from Canada, Europe, and the United States. STUDY PARTICIPANTS: A total of 13 546 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive patients initiating ART with efavirenz, nevirapine, lopinavir/ritonavir, nelfinavir, or abacavir as third drugs in combination with a zidovudine and lamivudine nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Short-term (24-week) virologic failure (>500 copies/ml) and clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation (incident AIDS-defining event, death, and a composite measure of these two outcomes). RESULTS: Compared with efavirenz as initial third drug, short-term virologic failure was more common with all other third drugs evaluated; nevirapine (adjusted odds ratio = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.58-2.22), lopinavir/ritonavir (1.32, 95% CI = 1.12-1.57), nelfinavir (3.20, 95% CI = 2.74-3.74), and abacavir (2.13, 95% CI = 1.82-2.50). However, the rate of clinical events within 2 years of ART initiation appeared higher only with nevirapine (adjusted hazard ratio for composite outcome measure 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04-1.56) and abacavir (1.22, 95% CI = 1.00-1.48). CONCLUSION: Among antiretroviral-naïve patients initiating therapy, between-ART regimen, differences in short-term virologic failure do not necessarily translate to differences in clinical outcomes. Our results should be interpreted with caution because of the possibility of residual confounding by indication.

May absorbable suture anchors increase the rate of recurrent dislocations after shoulder stabilization?

Introduction: Absorbable anchors are frequently used in shoulder surgery. Mechanisms of absorption induce a local inflammatory reaction. It is not clear if this process may disturb healing of the capsule and ligaments. The purpose of the study was to compare the rate of recurrent dislocation following open shoulder stabilization when using absorbable or non-absorbable suture anchors. Methods: Between 1999 and 2003, 83 open Bankart repairs were performed by the same surgeon. All patients had recurrent traumatic anterior shoulder instability. All had preoperative arthro-MRI or arthro-CT which did not reveal any significant bony Bankart lesion or rotatorcuff tear. Thirty-four patients were treated with absorbable anchors (Panalok®) and sutures (Panacryl®) and 49 with non-absorbable anchors (Mitek GII®) and sutures (Ethibond®). The same surgical technique and rehabilitation protocol were used. The incidence of sports ability and recurrent instability were recorded. We defined instability as true dislocation. Results: Five patients on 34 were lost to follow-up in the absorbable group and 7 on 49 in the non-absorbable group. The mean age of absorbable group was 25 years (range, 17-39 years). At a mean follow-up of 66 months (range, 54-76 months), 86% could resume sports activity. Five patients on 29 (17%) reported recurrent instability and two did need revision surgery. The mean age in non-absorbable group was 28 year (range, 18-47 years). At a mean follow-up of 78 months (range, 49-82 months), 93% could resume sports activity. Three patients on 42 (7%) reported recurrent instability and one did need revision surgery. Conclusion: This clinical study showed a clear tendency to a higher recurrence rate of dislocation when using absorbable suture anchors (17% in absorbable vs 7% in non-absorbable group). It is known that Panacryl® may be responsible for a major local inflammatory response. However, it is still unclear if this could be the failure etiology. Consequently, we prefer to use systematically non-absorbable sutureanchors for shoulder stabilization.

Effects of bisoprolol fumarate on left ventricular size, function, and exercise capacity in patients with heart failure: analysis with magnetic resonance myocardial tagging.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that beta-blockers can be beneficial in subgroups of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). For metoprolol and carvedilol, an increase in ejection fraction has been shown and favorable effects on the myocardial remodeling process have been reported in some studies. We examined the effects of bisoprolol fumarate on exercise capacity and left ventricular volume with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and applied a novel high-resolution MRI tagging technique to determine myocardial rotation and relaxation velocity. METHODS: Twenty-eight patients (mean age, 57 +/- 11 years; mean ejection fraction, 26 +/- 6%) were randomized to bisoprolol fumarate (n = 13) or to placebo therapy (n = 15). The dosage of the drugs was titrated to match that of the the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study protocol. Hemodynamic and gas exchange responses to exercise, MRI measurements of left ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes and ejection fraction, and left ventricular rotation and relaxation velocities were measured before the administration of the drug and 6 and 12 months later. RESULTS: After 1 year, heart rate was reduced in the bisoprolol fumarate group both at rest (81 +/- 12 before therapy versus 61 +/- 11 after therapy; P <.01) and peak exercise (144 +/- 20 before therapy versus 127 +/- 17 after therapy; P <.01), which indicated a reduction in sympathetic drive. No differences were observed in heart rate responses in the placebo group. No differences were observed within or between groups in peak oxygen uptake, although work rate achieved was higher (117.9 +/- 36 watts versus 146.1 +/- 33 watts; P <.05) and exercise time tended to be higher (9.1 +/- 1.7 minutes versus 11.4 +/- 2.8 minutes; P =.06) in the bisoprolol fumarate group. A trend for a reduction in left ventricular end-diastolic volume (-54 mL) and left ventricular end-systolic volume (-62 mL) in the bisoprolol fumarate group occurred after 1 year. Ejection fraction was higher in the bisoprolol fumarate group (25.0 +/- 7 versus 36.2 +/- 9%; P <.05), and the placebo group remained unchanged. Most changes in volume and ejection fraction occurred during the latter 6 months of treatment. With myocardial tagging, insignificant reductions in left ventricular rotation velocity were observed in both groups, whereas relaxation velocity was reduced only after bisoprolol fumarate therapy (by 39%; P <.05). CONCLUSION: One year of bisoprolol fumarate therapy resulted in an improvement in exercise capacity, showed trends for reductions in end-diastolic and end-systolic volumes, increased ejection fraction, and significantly reduced relaxation velocity. Although these results generally confirm the beneficial effects of beta-blockade in patients with chronic heart failure, they show differential effects on systolic and diastolic function.

Abnormalities of sodium excretion and other disorders of renal function in fulminant hepatic failure

Renal function was evaluated in 40 patients with fulminant hepatic failure, They were divided into two groups on the basis of glomerular filtration rates greater than 40 ml/min or less than 25 ml/min. A number of patients in group 1 had markedly abnormal renal retention of sodium together with a reduced free water clearance and low potassium excretion which could be explained by increased proximal tubular reabsorption of sodium. The patients in group 2 had evidence that renal tubular integrity was maintained when the glomerular filtration rate was greater than or equal ml/min (functional renal failure), but evidence of tubular damage was present when this was less than 3 ml/min (acute tubular necrosis).

Signs of a vector's adaptive choice: on the evasion of infectious hosts and parasite-induced mortality

Laboratory and field experiments have demonstrated in many cases that malaria vectors do not feed randomly, but show important preferences either for infected or non-infected hosts. These preferences are likely in part shaped by the costs imposed by the parasites on both their vertebrate and dipteran hosts. However, the effect of changes in vector behaviour on actual parasite transmission remains a debated issue. We used the natural associations between a malaria-like parasite Polychromophilus murinus, the bat fly Nycteribia kolenatii and a vertebrate host the Daubenton's bat Myotis daubentonii to test the vector's feeding preference based on the host's infection status using two different approaches: 1) controlled behavioural assays in the laboratory where bat flies could choose between a pair of hosts; 2) natural bat fly abundance data from wild-caught bats, serving as an approximation of realised feeding preference of the bat flies. Hosts with the fewest infectious stages of the parasite were most attractive to the bat flies that did switch in the behavioural assay. In line with the hypothesis of costs imposed by parasites on their vectors, bat flies carrying parasites had higher mortality. However, in wild populations, bat flies were found feeding more based on the bat's body condition, rather than its infection level. Though the absolute frequency of host switches performed by the bat flies during the assays was low, in the context of potential parasite transmission they were extremely high. The decreased survival of infected bat flies suggests that the preference for less infected hosts is an adaptive trait. Nonetheless, other ecological processes ultimately determine the vector's biting rate and thus transmission. Inherent vector preferences therefore play only a marginal role in parasite transmission in the field. The ecological processes rather than preferences per se need to be identified for successful epidemiological predictions.