Is Antarctic climate most sensitive to ozone depletion in the middle or lower stratosphere?

Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion has been associated with an observed downward trend in tropospheric geopotential height and temperature. Stratospheric ozone depletion peaks in October–November, whereas tropospheric trends are largest in December–January, concurrent with maximum ozone changes close to the tropopause. Surface temperatures are most sensitive to ozone loss near the tropopause, therefore it has been suggested that the observed tropospheric response is forced mainly by ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere. In this study the climate response to ozone depletion exclusively below 164 hPa is simulated using HadSM3-L64, and compared with simulations in which ozone depletion is prescribed exclusively above 164 hPa. Results indicate that the tropospheric response is dominated by ozone changes above 164 hPa, with ozone changes in the lowermost stratosphere playing an insignificant role. A tropospheric response is also seen in fall/winter which agrees well with observations and has not been found in modeling studies previously.

Lys-gamma3-MSH: a global regulator of hormone sensitive lipase activity?

Gamma-melanocyte stimulating hormone (gamma-MSH) is a peptide derived from the ACTH precursor, pro-opiomelanocortin (POMC), and belongs to a family of peptides called the melanocortins that also comprises alpha- and beta-MSH. Although conserved in tetrapods, the biological role of gamma-MSH remains largely undefined. It has been demonstrated previously that gamma-MSH is involved in the regulating the activity of hormone sensitive lipase (HSL) activity in the adrenal and more recently, in the adipocyte. It has been shown also to have effects on the cardiovascular and renal systems. This short review will provide a brief overview of the role of gamma-MSH in the adrenal and the more recent report that it can also regulate HSL function in the adipocyte. We also present some preliminary data purporting a direct role for Lys-gamma(3)-MSH in the regulation of HSL phosphorylation in the heart. Taken together these data suggest that gamma-MSH peptides might play a more widespread role in lipid and cholesterol utilization.

Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (B) acidity mass balance critical loads on a sensitive site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism - coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CLmaxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.