Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Resting metabolic rate in six- to ten-year-old obese and nonobese children.

The resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body composition of 130 obese and nonobese prepubertal children, aged 6 to 10 years, were assessed by indirect calorimetry and skin-fold thickness, respectively. The mean (+/- SD) RMR was 4619 +/- 449 kJ.day-1 (164 +/- 31 kJ.kg body weight-1 x day-1) in the 62 boys and 4449 +/- 520 kJ.day-1 (147 +/- 32 kJ.kg body weight-1 x day-1) in the 68 girls. Fat-free mass was the best single predictor of RMR (R2 = 0.64; p < 0.001). Step-down multiple regression analysis, with independent variables such as age, gender, weight, and height, allowed several RMR predictive equations to be developed. An equation for boys is as follows: RMR (kJ.day-1) = 1287 + 28.6 x Weight(kg) + 23.6 x Height(cm) - 69.1 x Age(yr) (R2 = 0.58; p < 0.001). An equation for girls is as follows: RMR (kJ.day-1 = 1552 + 35.8 x Weight (kg) + 15.6 x Height (cm) - 36.3 x Age (yr) (R2 = 0.69; p < 0.001). Comparison between the measured RMR and that predicted by currently used formulas showed that most of these equations tended to overestimate the RMR of both genders, especially in overweight children.

Método preliminar de determinación del tamaño de la malla para cerco y su aplicación al Jurel Peruano

Usando formulas de Kawamura (1972) y Hamley (1975) se ha determinado el tamaño apropiado de la malla para redes de cerco para evitar el enmalle del jurel peruano Trachurus murphyu en cada estación del año. Como tamaño de malla apropiado se determinó 4.6 (promedio) y como tamaño peligroso 6.2 cm. en promedio.

On the depth of blowup algebras of ideals with analytic deviation one

Let I be an ideal in a local Cohen-Macaulay ring (A, m). Assume I to be generically a complete intersection of positive height. We compute the depth of the Rees algebra and the form ring of I when the analytic deviation of I equals one and its reduction number is also at most one. The formu- las we obtain coincide with the already known formulas for almost complete intersection ideals.

Marqueurs de la filtration glomérulaire en pédiatrie [Glomerular filtration markers in pediatrics]

The assessment of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is critical for the diagnosis and management of renal diseases in pediatric nephrology. Ideally, it requires the measurement of the renal clearance of a filtration marker. Inulin, an exogenous marker, is the only compound the excretion of which occurs exclusively by glomerular filtration, with no tubular handling. Therefore, inulin clearance provides the most accurate method to measure GFR and is considered as the "gold standard", at all ages including very premature neonates. However, inulin dearance is cumbersome and alternative methods are used in clinical practice. If urine is available, endogenous creatinine clearance is the most reliable method. When urine collection is difficult to obtain, GFR can be estimated by the plasma concentration of endogenous markers mainly eliminated by glomerular filtration, such as creatinine, or the more recently described cystatin C and beta 2-microglobulin. When the endogenous production of these markers is constant, their plasma concentration reflects glomerular filtration; it increases with decreasing renal function. However, in pediatric patients creatinine production depends on muscle mass, which significantly increases with linear growth, as well as age and gender. Mathematical formulas taking these parameters into account have thus been developed. Among these, the so-called "Schwartz formula" is often used and is a reliable estimate of GFR in children. Finally, radionuclide renal scans can be used to evaluate the separate glomerular function of each kidney.

The optimal dividend barrier in the Gamma-Omega model

In the traditional actuarial risk model, if the surplus is negative, the company is ruined and has to go out of business. In this paper we distinguish between ruin (negative surplus) and bankruptcy (going out of business), where the probability of bankruptcy is a function of the level of negative surplus. The idea for this notion of bankruptcy comes from the observation that in some industries, companies can continue doing business even though they are technically ruined. Assuming that dividends can only be paid with a certain probability at each point of time, we derive closed-form formulas for the expected discounted dividends until bankruptcy under a barrier strategy. Subsequently, the optimal barrier is determined, and several explicit identities for the optimal value are found. The surplus process of the company is modeled by a Wiener process (Brownian motion).

Effect of a whey-predominant starter formula containing LCPUFAs and oligosaccharides (FOS/GOS) on gastrointestinal comfort in infants.

Development of new infant formulas aims to replicate the benefits of breast milk. One benefit of breast milk over infant formulas is greater gastrointestinal comfort. We compared indicators of gastrointestinal comfort in infants fed a whey-predominant formula containing long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, galacto-oligo-saccharides and fructo-oligosaccharides, and infants fed a control casein-predominant formula without additional ingredients. The single-centre, prospective, double-blind, controlled trial randomly assigned healthy, full-term infants (n=144) to receive exclusively either experimental or control formula from 30 days to 4 months of age. A group of exclusively breast-fed infants served as reference (n=80). At 1, 2, 3, and 4 months, infants' growth parameters were measured and their health assessed. Parents recorded frequency and physical characteristics of infants' stool, frequency of regurgitation, vomiting, crying and colic. At 2-months, gastric emptying (ultrasound) and intestinal transit time (H2 breath test) were measured, and stool samples collected for bacterial analysis. Compared to the control (n=69), fewer of the experimental group (n=67) had hard stools (0.7 vs 7.5%, p<0.001) and more had soft stools (90.8 vs 82.3%, p<0.05). Also compared to the control, the experimental group's stool microbiota composition (mean % bifidobacteria: 78.1 (experimental, n=17), 63.7 (control, n=16), 74.3 (breast-fed, n=20), gastric transit times (59.6 (experimental, n=53), 61.4 (control, n=62), 55.9 (breast-fed, n=67) minutes) and intestinal transit times (data not shown) were closer to that of the breast-fed group. Growth parameter values were similar for all groups. The data suggest that, in infants, the prebiotic-containing whey-based formula provides superior gastrointestinal comfort than a control formula.

On the nucleolus of 2 x 2 assignment games

[spa] En este artículo hallamos fórmulas para el nucleolo de juegos de asignación arbitrarios con dos compradores y dos vendedores. Se analizan cinco casos distintos, dependiendo de las entradas en la matriz de asignación. Los resultados se extienden a los casos de juegos de asignación de tipo 2 x m o m x 2.

Bulk-plasmon dispersion relations in metals

Using an extended-random-phase-approximation sum-rule technique, we have investigated the bulk-plasmon dispersion relation, incorporating in a simple way exchange and correlation effects within the jellium model. The results obtained are compared with recent experimental findings. The key role played by exchange and correlation effects in improving the agreement between theory and experiment is stressed. The static polarizability has also been calculated as a function of q. The formulas can be easily modified to incorporate band-structure effects (through an intraband electron effective mass) and core-polarization effects (through a static dielectric constant).

Effective eigenvalue for the intensity correlations of single-mode and two-mode lasers

Exact formulas for the effective eigenvalue characterizing the initial decay of intensity correlation functions are given in terms of stationary moments of the intensity. Spontaneous emission noise and nonwhite pump noise are considered. Our results are discussed in connection with earlier calculations, simulations, and experimental results for single-mode dye lasers, two-mode inhomogeneously broadened lasers, and two-mode dye ring lasers. The effective eigenvalue is seen to depend sensitively on noise characteristics and symmetry properties of the system. In particular, the effective eigenvalue associated with cross correlations of two-mode lasers is seen to vanish in the absence of pump noise as a consequence of detailed balance. In the presence of pump noise, the vanishing of this eigenvalue requires equal pump parameters for the two modes and statistical independence of spontaneous emission noise acting on each mode.

Development of LRFD Procedures for Bridge Pile Foundations in Iowa, September 2011

In response to the mandate on Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) implementations by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) on all new bridge projects initiated after October 1, 2007, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) sponsored these research projects to develop regional LRFD recommendations. The LRFD development was performed using the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) Pile Load Test database (PILOT). To increase the data points for LRFD development, develop LRFD recommendations for dynamic methods, and validate the results of LRFD calibration, 10 full-scale field tests on the most commonly used steel H-piles (e.g., HP 10 x 42) were conducted throughout Iowa. Detailed in situ soil investigations were carried out, push-in pressure cells were installed, and laboratory soil tests were performed. Pile responses during driving, at the end of driving (EOD), and at re-strikes were monitored using the Pile Driving Analyzer (PDA), following with the CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program (CAPWAP) analysis. The hammer blow counts were recorded for Wave Equation Analysis Program (WEAP) and dynamic formulas. Static load tests (SLTs) were performed and the pile capacities were determined based on the Davisson’s criteria. The extensive experimental research studies generated important data for analytical and computational investigations. The SLT measured load displacements were compared with the simulated results obtained using a model of the TZPILE program and using the modified borehole shear test method. Two analytical pile setup quantification methods, in terms of soil properties, were developed and validated. A new calibration procedure was developed to incorporate pile setup into LRFD.

K-Rb Fermi-Bose mixtures: Vortex states and sag

We study a confined mixture of bosons and fermions in the quantal degeneracy regime with attractive boson-fermion interaction. We discuss the effect that the presence of vortical states and the displacement of the trapping potentials may have on mixtures near collapse, and investigate the phase stability diagram of the K-Rb mixture in the mean-field approximation supposing in one case that the trapping potentials felt by bosons and fermions are shifted from each other, as it happens in the presence of a gravitational sag, and in another case, assuming that the Bose condensate sustains a vortex state. In both cases, we have obtained an analytical expression for the fermion effective potential when the Bose condensate is in the Thomas-Fermi regime, that can be used to determine the maxima of the Fermionic density. We have numerically checked that the values one obtains for the location of these maxima using the analytical formulas remain valid up to the critical boson and fermion numbers, above which the mixture collapses.

Collective and single-particle excitations of a trapped Bose gas

The density of states of a Bose-condensed gas confined in a harmonic trap is investigated. The predictions of Bogoliubov theory are compared with those of Hartree-Fock theory and of the hydrodynamic model. We show that the Hartree-Fock scheme provides an excellent description of the excitation spectrum in a wide range of energy, revealing a major role played by single-particle excitations in these confined systems. The crossover from the hydrodynamic regime, holding at low energies, to the independent-particle regime is explicitly explored by studying the frequency of the surface mode as a function of their angular momentum. The applicability of the semiclassical approximation for the excited states is also discussed. We show that the semiclassical approach provides simple and accurate formulas for the density of states and the quantum depletion of the condensate.

Preisach modeling of hysteresis for a pseudoelastic Cu-Zn-Al single crystal

Stress-strain trajectories associated with pseudoelastic behavior of a Cu¿19.4 Zn¿13.1 Al (at.%) single crystal at room temperature have been determined experimentally. For a constant cross-head speed the trajectories and the associated hysteresis behavior are perfectly reproducible; the trajectories exhibit memory properties, dependent only on the values of return points, where transformation direction is reverted. An adapted version of the Preisach model for hysteresis has been implemented to predict the observed trajectories, using a set of experimental first¿order reversal curves as input data. Explicit formulas have been derived giving all trajectories in terms of this data set, with no adjustable parameters. Comparison between experimental and calculated trajectories shows a much better agreement for descending than for ascending paths, an indication of a dissymmetry between the dissipation mechanisms operative in forward and reverse directions of martensitic transformation.

Elasticity and melting of vortex crystals in anisotropic superconductors: Beyond the continuum regime.

The elastic moduli of vortex crystals in anisotropic superconductors are frequently involved in the investigation of their phase diagram and transport properties. We provide a detailed analysis of the harmonic eigenvalues (normal modes) of the vortex lattice for general values of the magnetic field strength, going beyond the elastic continuum regime. The detailed behavior of these wave-vector-dependent eigenvalues within the Brillouin zone (BZ), is compared with several frequently used approximations that we also recalculate. Throughout the BZ, transverse modes are less costly than their longitudinal counterparts, and there is an angular dependence which becomes more marked close to the zone boundary. Based on these results, we propose an analytic correction to the nonlocal continuum formulas which fits quite well the numerical behavior of the eigenvalues in the London regime. We use this approximate expression to calculate thermal fluctuations and the full melting line (according to Lindeman's criterion) for various values of the anisotropy parameter.