A panel data approach to economic forecasting: the bias-corrected average forecast

In this paper, we propose a novel approach to econometric forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series within a panel-data framework. Our key element is to employ the (feasible) bias-corrected average forecast. Using panel-data sequential asymptotics we show that it is potentially superior to other techniques in several contexts. In particular, it is asymptotically equivalent to the conditional expectation, i.e., has an optimal limiting mean-squared error. We also develop a zeromean test for the average bias and discuss the forecast-combination puzzle in small and large samples. Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the feasible bias-corrected average forecast in finite samples. An empirical exercise, based upon data from a well known survey is also presented. Overall, these results show promise for the feasible bias-corrected average forecast.

The impact of OFDI on economic growth countries. An econometric approach using panel data and time-series evidence

The thesis at hand adds to the existing literature by investigating the relationship between economic growth and outward foreign direct investments (OFDI) on a set of 16 emerging countries. Two different econometric techniques are employed: a panel data regression analysis and a time-series causality analysis. Results from the regression analysis indicate a positive and significant correlation between OFDI and economic growth. Additionally, the coefficient for the OFDI variable is robust in the sense specified by the Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA). On the other hand, the findings of the causality analysis are particularly heterogeneous. The vector autoregression (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM) approaches identify unidirectional Granger causality running either from OFDI to GDP or from GDP to OFDI in six countries. In four economies causality among the two variables is bidirectional, whereas in five countries no causality relationship between OFDI and GDP seems to be present.

A critical value function approach, with an application to persistent time-series

Researchers often rely on the t-statistic to make inference on parameters in statistical models. It is common practice to obtain critical values by simulation techniques. This paper proposes a novel numerical method to obtain an approximately similar test. This test rejects the null hypothesis when the test statistic islarger than a critical value function (CVF) of the data. We illustrate this procedure when regressors are highly persistent, a case in which commonly-used simulation methods encounter dificulties controlling size uniformly. Our approach works satisfactorily, controls size, and yields a test which outperforms the two other known similar tests.

H-infinity control design for time-delay linear systems: a rational transfer function based approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Time-periodic perturbation of a Lienard equation with an unbounded homoclinic loop

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A New Approach for Real Time Fault Diagnosis in Induction Motors Based on Vibration Measurement

Condition monitoring is used to increase machinery availability and machinery performance, reducing consequential damage, increasing machine life, reducing spare parts inventories, and reducing breakdown maintenance. An efficient real time vibration measurement and analysis instruments is capable of providing warning and predicting faults at early stages. In this paper, a new methodology for the implementation of vibration measurement and analysis instruments in real time based on circuit architecture mapped from a MATLAB/Simulink model is presented. In this study, signal processing applications such as FIR filters and fast Fourier transform are treated as systems, which are implemented in hardware using a system generator toolbox, which translates a Simulink model in a hardware description language - HDL for FPGA implementations.

Construction of time-dependent dynamical invariants: A new approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A RIEMANN INTEGRAL APPROACH TO FEYNMANS PATH-INTEGRAL

It is a well known result that the Feynman's path integral (FPI) approach to quantum mechanics is equivalent to Schrodinger's equation when we use as integration measure the Wiener-Lebesgue measure. This results in little practical applicability due to the great algebraic complexibity involved, and the fact is that almost all applications of (FPI) - ''practical calculations'' - are done using a Riemann measure. In this paper we present an expansion to all orders in time of FPI in a quest for a representation of the latter solely in terms of differentiable trajetories and Riemann measure. We show that this expansion agrees with a similar expansion obtained from Schrodinger's equation only up to first order in a Riemann integral context, although by chance both expansions referred to above agree for the free. particle and harmonic oscillator cases. Our results permit, from the mathematical point of view, to estimate the many errors done in ''practical'' calculations of the FPI appearing in the literature and, from the physical point of view, our results supports the stochastic approach to the problem.

Real-time monitoring and kinetic parameter estimation of the affinity interaction of jArtinM and rArtinM with peroxidase glycoprotein by the electrogravimetric technique

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mechanistic approach to predict real machining time for milling free-form geometries applying high feed rate

An accurate estimate of machining time is very important for predicting delivery time, manufacturing costs, and also to help production process planning. Most commercial CAM software systems estimate the machining time in milling operations simply by dividing the entire tool path length by the programmed feed rate. This time estimate differs drastically from the real process time because the feed rate is not always constant due to machine and computer numerical controlled (CNC) limitations. This study presents a practical mechanistic method for milling time estimation when machining free-form geometries. The method considers a variable called machine response time (MRT) which characterizes the real CNC machine's capacity to move in high feed rates in free-form geometries. MRT is a global performance feature which can be obtained for any type of CNC machine configuration by carrying out a simple test. For validating the methodology, a workpiece was used to generate NC programs for five different types of CNC machines. A practical industrial case study was also carried out to validate the method. The results indicated that MRT, and consequently, the real machining time, depends on the CNC machine's potential: furthermore, the greater MRT, the larger the difference between predicted milling time and real milling time. The proposed method achieved an error range from 0.3% to 12% of the real machining time, whereas the CAM estimation achieved from 211% to 1244% error. The MRT-based process is also suggested as an instrument for helping in machine tool benchmarking.

Improved numerical approach for the time-independent Gross-Pitaevskii nonlinear Schrödinger equation

In the present work, we improve a numerical method, developed to solve the Gross-Pitaevkii nonlinear Schrödinger equation. A particular scaling is used in the equation, which permits us to evaluate the wave-function normalization after the numerical solution. We have a two-point boundary value problem, where the second point is taken at infinity. The differential equation is solved using the shooting method and Runge-Kutta integration method, requiring that the asymptotic constants, for the function and its derivative, be equal for large distances. In order to obtain fast convergence, the secant method is used. © 1999 The American Physical Society.

Electrically detected magnetic resonance modeling and fitting: An equivalent circuit approach

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)