Using interviewer random effects to remove selection bias from HIV prevalence estimates

Background: Selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates occurs if non-participation in testing is correlated with HIV status. Longitudinal data suggests that individuals who know or suspect they are HIV positive are less likely to participate in testing in HIV surveys, in which case methods to correct for missing data which are based on imputation and observed characteristics will produce biased results. Methods: The identity of the HIV survey interviewer is typically associated with HIV testing participation, but is unlikely to be correlated with HIV status. Interviewer identity can thus be used as a selection variable allowing estimation of Heckman-type selection models. These models produce asymptotically unbiased HIV prevalence estimates, even when non-participation is correlated with unobserved characteristics, such as knowledge of HIV status. We introduce a new random effects method to these selection models which overcomes non-convergence caused by collinearity, small sample bias, and incorrect inference in existing approaches. Our method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and allows the construction of bootstrapped standard errors which adjust for the fact that the relationship between testing and HIV status is uncertain and needs to be estimated. Results: Using nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we illustrate our approach with new point estimates and confidence intervals (CI) for HIV prevalence among men in Ghana (2003) and Zambia (2007). In Ghana, we find little evidence of selection bias as our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 1.4% (95% CI 1.2% – 1.6%), compared to 1.6% among those with a valid HIV test. In Zambia, our selection model gives an HIV prevalence estimate of 16.3% (95% CI 11.0% - 18.4%), compared to 12.1% among those with a valid HIV test. Therefore, those who decline to test in Zambia are found to be more likely to be HIV positive. Conclusions: Our approach corrects for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates, is possible to implement even when HIV prevalence or non-participation is very high or very low, and provides a practical solution to account for both sampling and parameter uncertainty in the estimation of confidence intervals. The wide confidence intervals estimated in an example with high HIV prevalence indicate that it is difficult to correct statistically for the bias that may occur when a large proportion of people refuse to test.

Adaptor protein-2 sigma subunit mutations causing familial hypocalciuric hypercalcaemia type 3 (FHH3) demonstrate genotype-phenotype correlations, codon bias and dominant-negative effects

The adaptor protein-2 sigma subunit (AP2sigma;2) is pivotal for clathrin-mediated endocytosis of plasma membrane constituents such as the calcium-sensing receptor (CaSR). Mutations of the AP2sigma;2 Arg15 residue result in familial hypocalciuric hypercalcaemia type 3 (FHH3), a disorder of extracellular calcium (Ca<inf>o</inf>²⁺) homeostasis. To elucidate the role of AP2sigma;2 in Ca<inf>o</inf>²⁺ regulation, we investigated 65 FHH probands, without other FHH-associated mutations, for AP2sigma;2 mutations, characterized their functional consequences and investigated the genetic mechanisms leading to FHH3. AP2sigma;2 mutations were identified in 17 probands, comprising 5 Arg15Cys, 4 Arg15His and 8 Arg15Leu mutations. A genotype-phenotype correlation was observed with the Arg15Leu mutation leading to marked hypercalcaemia. FHH3 probands harboured additional phenotypes such as cognitive dysfunction. All three FHH3-causing AP2sigma;2 mutations impaired CaSR signal transduction in a dominant-negative manner. Mutational bias was observed at the AP2sigma;2 Arg15 residue as other predicted missense substitutions (Arg15Gly, Arg15Pro and Arg15Ser), which also caused CaSR loss-of-function, were not detected in FHH probands, and these mutations were found to reduce the numbers of CaSR-expressing cells. FHH3 probands had significantly greater serum calcium (sCa) and magnesium (sMg) concentrations with reduced urinary calcium to creatinine clearance ratios (CCCR) in comparison with FHH1 probands with CaSR mutations, and a calculated index of sCa × sMg/100 × CCCR, which was ≥ 5.0, had a diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of 83 and 86%, respectively, for FHH3. Thus, our studies demonstrate AP2sigma;2 mutations to result in a more severe FHH phenotype with genotype-phenotype correlations, and a dominant-negative mechanism of action with mutational bias at the Arg15 residue.

Comparing lateral bias in dogs and humans using the KongTM ball test

The KongTM ball test has been used extensively to assess lateral bias in the domestic dog. Implicit in this challenge is the assumption that dogs use their dominant paw to stabilise the ball. This study examined whether or not this is the case. A comparative approach was adopted, exploring limb use in dogs and humans. In Experiment 1, the paw preference of 48 dogs was assessed on the KongTM ball test. Analysis revealed an equal distribution of paw use, although significantly more dogs were paw-preferent than ambilateral. Significantly more male dogs were classified as right-pawed, while more females were ambilateral. There was no significant effect of canine sex or castration status on the dogs’ paw preferences. In Experiment 2, 94 adult humans were assessed on their ability to remove a piece of paper from a KongTM ball with their mouth, using their left, right or both hands to stabilise the ball. 76% of the right-handed people used their left hand, and 82% of the left-handed participants used their right hand, to hold the KongTM steady. It is concluded that dogs, like humans, are most likely using their non-dominant limb to stabilise the KongTM ball and their dominant side for postural support. This has potential applied implications from an animal welfare perspective.

Lateral bias and temperament in the domestic cat (Felis silvestris)

Research points to a relationship between lateralization and emotional functioning in humans and many species of animal. The present study explored the association between paw preferences and emotional functioning, specifically temperament, in a species thus far overlooked in this area, the domestic cat. Thirty left-pawed, 30 right-pawed, and 30 ambilateral pet cats were recruited following an assessment of their paw preferences using a food-reaching challenge. The animals’ temperament was subsequently assessed using the Feline Temperament Profile (FTP). Cats’ owners also completed a purpose-designed cat temperament (CAT) scale. Analysis revealed a significant relationship between lateral bias and FTP and CAT scale scores. Ambilateral cats had lower positive (FTP+) scores, and were perceived as less affectionate, obedient, friendly, and more aggressive, than left or right-pawed animals. Left and right pawed cats differed significantly on 1 trait on the CAT scale, namely playfulness. The strength of the cats’ paw preferences was related to the animals’ FTP and CAT scores. Cats with a greater strength of paw preference had higher FTP + scores than those with a weaker strength of paw preference. Animals with stronger paw preferences were perceived as more confident, affectionate, active, and friendly than those with weaker paw preferences. Results suggest that motor laterality in the cat is strongly related to temperament and that the presence or absence of lateralization has greater implications for the expression of emotion in this species than the direction of the lateralized bias.

Pine wilt disease: a worldwide threat to forest ecosystems

The pinewood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, the causal agent of pine wilt disease (PWD), is a serious pest and pathogen of forest tree species, in particular among the genus Pinus. It was first reported from Japan in the beginning of the XXth century, where it became the major ecological catastrophe of pine forests, with losses reaching over 2 million m3/ year in the 1980s. It has since then spread to other Asian countries such as China, Taiwan and Korea, causing serious losses and economic damage. In 1999, the PWN was first detected in the European Union (EU), in Portugal, and immmediately prompted several government (national and EU) actions to assess the extent of the nematode’s presence, and to contain B. xylophilus and its insect vector (Monochamus galloprovincialis) to an area with a 30km radius in the Setúbal Peninsula, 20 km south of Lisbon. International wood trade, with its political as well as economic ramifications, has been seriously jeopardized. The origin of the population of PWN found in Portugal remains elusive. Several hypotheses may be considered regarding pathway analysis, basically from two general origins: North America or the Far East (Japan or China). World trade of wood products such as timber, wooden crates, palettes, etc… play an important role in the potential dissemination of the pinewood nematode. In fact, human activities involving the movement of wood products may be considered the single most important factor in spreading of the PWN. Despite the dedicated and concerted actions of government agencies, this disease continues to spread. Very recently (2006), in Portugal, forestry and phytosanitary authorities (DGRF and DGPC) have announced a new strategy for the control and ultimately the erradication of the nematode, under the coordination of the national program for the control of the pinewood nematode (PROLUNP). Research regarding the bioecology of the nematode and insect as well as new detection methods, e.g., involving real-time PCR, has progressed since 1999. International agreements (GATT, WTO) and sharing of scientific information is of paramount importance to effectively control the nematode and its vector, and thus protect our forest ecosystems and forest economy.

Pine Wilt Disease: A Threat to Pine Forests in Turkey?

The pinewood nematode, is the causal agent of pine wilt disease, a serious threat to native pine forest in eastern Asia (Japan, Korea, China and Taiwan) and some parts of North America (USA, Canada and Mexico). In 1999, this nematode was found and identified for the first time in Portugal and in Europe. The detection of this quarantine pest in Portugal has indicated the need to know more about the distribution of Bursaphelenchus spp. in coniferous trees in Europe in order to describe the geographic range of the species and to act quickly in case of the nematode’s unwanted introduction into other European regions. Pine forest has a wide distribution in Turkey that increases the number of susceptible host trees for pinewood nematode. Because of these resaons, some regions of Turkey were surveyed for the presence of the nematode. Three different species of Bursaphelenchus were found. However, B. xylophilus was not detected. The detection of B. mucronatus, very similar to B. xylophilus biologically and morphologically, is very important. The presence of this species indicates that B. xylophilus could spread easly in conifer forests of Turkey. A study was conducted to determine the pathogenicity of B. mucronatus and 80% of seedlings of P. sylvestris were wilted. Biological characteristics of M. galloprovincialis were compared with M. carolinensis, Nort American vector, and some of them were found to be similar.

Galvanic Vestibular Stimulation Induces a Spatial Bias in Whole-body Position Estimates

Letter to the Editor

Common Ragweed: A Threat to Environmental Health in Europe

Common or short ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is an annual herb belonging to the Asteraceae family that was described by Carl Linnaeus in the 18th century. It is a noxious invasive species that is an important weed in agriculture and a source of highly allergenic pollen. The importance placed on A. artemisiifolia is reflected by the number of international projects that have now been launched by the European Commission and the increasing number of publications being produced on this topic. This review paper examines existing knowledge about ragweed ecology, distribution and flowering phenology and the environmental health risk that this noxious plant poses in Europe. The paper also examines control measures used in the fight against it and state of the art methods for modelling atmospheric concentrations of this important aeroallergen. Common ragweed is an environmental health threat, not only in its native North America but also in many parts of the world where it has been introduced. In Europe, where the plant has now become naturalised and frequently forms part of the flora, the threat posed by ragweed has been identified and steps are being taken to reduce further geographical expansion and limit increases in population densities of the plant in order to protect the allergic population. This is particularly important when one considers possible range shifts, changes in flowering phenology and increases in the amount of pollen and allergenic potency that could be brought about by changes in climate.

Britain and the threat to stability in Europe 1918-45

After the horrors of the First World War a dialogue began between European statesmen seeking some form of European integration as a way of achieving lasting peace. During the inter-war period this idea started to attract support in Britain even though Britain's strategic and economic interests remained focused outside Europe. This book explores Britain's relations with the continent between 1918 and 1945, focussing on diplomatic and military responses to the major crises and examining attitudes to the idea of Europe in the broader context of relations with the Empire, Commonwealth and the USA.

Home bias persistence in foreign direct investments

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the issues related to home bias and foreign direct investments (FDIs). We study the role of physical, cultural, and institutional distances from home on FDI decisions taken by corporations to assess whether the globalization of the past two decades has reduced their influence. Using the ‘home bias’ framework from the finance literature and the gravity model from the economics literature, we utilize a large sample of both developed and emerging markets, using FDI flows of 6263 unique bilateral country pairs over a 30-year period. We find strong empirical evidence of persistent home bias in FDI outflows, and we show that not only physical distance but also cultural and institutional similarities between host and source countries remain a decisive factor in foreign corporate investment decisions. We also show that such home bias is persistent over time and is observed around the world.

Reducing job-irrelevant bias in performance and appraisals: compliance and beyond

Job-irrelevant discrimination seems as ubiquitous as the performance appraisals in which it is commonly detected. This paper explores both compliance-based and more proactive approaches that deal with the various possible sources of discrimination in performance appraisal ratings. The suggestions lead to a code of practice for performance management in firms across cultures and national boundaries.

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]