Sr/Ca ratios of coccoliths from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), rapid release of isotopically light C to the ocean-atmosphere system elevated the greenhouse effect and warmed temperatures by 5-7 °C for 105 yr. The response of the planktic ecosystems and productivity to the dramatic climate changes of the PETM may represent a significant feedback to the carbon cycle changes, but has been difficult to document. We examine Sr/Ca ratios in calcareous nannofossils in sediments spanning the PETM in three open ocean sites as a new approach to examine productivity and ecological shifts in calcifying plankton. The large heterogeneity in Sr/Ca among different nannofossil genera indicates that nannofossil Sr/Ca reflects primary productivity-driven geochemical signals and not diagenetic overprinting. Elevated Sr/Ca ratios in several genera and constant ratios in other genera suggest increased overall productivity in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean during the PETM. Dominant nannofossil genera in tropical Atlantic and Pacific sites show Sr/Ca variations during the PETM which are comparable to background variability prior to the PETM. Despite acidification of the ocean there was not a productivity crisis among calcifying phytoplankton. We use the Pandora ocean box model to explore possible mechanisms for PETM productivity change. If independent proxy evidence for more stratified conditions in the Southern Ocean during the PETM is robust, then maintenance of stable or increased productivity there likely reflects increased nutrient inventories of the ocean. Increased nutrient inventories could have resulted from climatically enhanced weathering and would have important implications for burial rates of organic carbon and stabilization of climate and the carbon cycle.

Geochemistry of Late Paleocene thermal maximum sediments

The late Paleocene thermal maximum (LPTM) was a dramatic, short-term global warming event that occurred ~55 Ma. Warming of high-latitude surface waters and global deep waters during the LPTM has been well documented; however, current data suggest that subtropical and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) did not change during the event. Conventional paradigms of global climate change, such as CO2-induced greenhouse warming, predict greater warming in the high latitudes than in the tropics or subtropics but, nonetheless, cannot account for the stable tropical/subtropical SSTs. We measured the stable isotope values of well-preserved late Paleocene to early Eocene planktonic foraminifera from South Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 527 to evaluate the subtropical response to the climatic and environmental changes of the LPTM. Planktonic foraminiferal d18O values at Site 527 decrease by ~0.94 per mil from pre-LPTM to excursion values, providing the first evidence for subtropical warming during the LPTM. We estimate that subtropical South Atlantic SSTs warmed by at least ~1°-4°C, on the basis of possible changes in evaporation and precipitation. The new evidence for subtropical SST warming supports a greenhouse mechanism for global warming involving elevated atmospheric CO2 levels.

Ocean temperature response to idealized Gleissberg and de Vries solar cycles in a comprehensive climate model

The ~90-year Gleissberg and ~200-year de Vries cycles have been identified as two distinctive quasi-periodic components of Holocene solar activity. Evidence exists for the impact of such multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability in total solar irradiance (TSI) on climate, but concerning the ocean, this evidence is mainly restricted to the surface response. Here we use a comprehensive global climate model to study the impact of idealized solar forcing, representing the Gleissberg and de Vries cycles, on global ocean potential temperature at different depth levels, after a recent proxy record indicates a signal of TSI anomalies in the northeastern Atlantic at mid-depth. Potential impacts of TSI anomalies on deeper oceanic levels are climatically relevant due to their possible effect on ocean circulation by altering water mass characteristics. Simulated solar anomalies are shown to penetrate the ocean down to at least deep-water levels. Despite the fact that the two forcing periods differ only by a factor of ~2, the spatial pattern of response is significantly distinctive between the experiments, suggesting different mechanisms for solar signal propagation. These are related to advection by North Atlantic Deep Water flow (200-year forcing), and barotropic adjustment in the South Atlantic in response to a latitudinal shift of the westerly wind belt (90-year forcing).

Age model, stable isotopes, major element proportions and endmember unmixing results from four western tropical Atlantic cores

We investigate changes in the delivery and oceanic transport of Amazon sediments related to terrestrial climate variations over the last 250 ka. We present high-resolution geochemical records from four marine sediment cores located between 5 and 12° N along the northern South American margin. The Amazon River is the sole source of terrigenous material for sites at 5 and 9° N, while the core at 12° N receives a mixture of Amazon and Orinoco detrital particles. Using an endmember unmixing model, we estimated the relative proportions of Amazon Andean material ("%-Andes", at 5 and 9° N) and of Amazon material ("%-Amazon", at 12° N) within the terrigenous fraction. The %-Andes and %-Amazon records exhibit significant precessional variations over the last 250 ka that are more pronounced during interglacials in comparison to glacial periods. High %-Andes values observed during periods of high austral summer insolation reflect the increased delivery of suspended sediments by Andean tributaries and enhanced Amazonian precipitation, in agreement with western Amazonian speleothem records. Increased Amazonian rainfall reflects the intensification of the South American monsoon in response to enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient and moisture convergence. However, low %-Amazon values obtained at 12° N during the same periods seem to contradict the increased delivery of Amazon sediments. We propose that reorganizations in surface ocean currents modulate the northwestward transport of Amazon material. In agreement with published records, the seasonal North Brazil Current retroflection is intensified (or prolonged in duration) during cold substages of the last 250 ka (which correspond to intervals of high DJF or low JJA insolation) and deflects eastward the Amazon sediment and freshwater plume.

The photo-physiological response of a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis to CO2-induced acidification at the cellular level

We measured the relationship between CO2-induced seawater acidification, photo-physiological performance and intracellular pH (pHi) in a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis - the sea anemone Aiptasia sp. -under ambient (289.94 ± 12.54 µatm), intermediate (687.40 ± 25.10 µatm) and high (1459.92 ± 65.51 µatm) CO2 conditions. These treatments represented current CO2 levels, in addition to CO2 stabilisation scenarios IV and VI provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Anemones were exposed to each treatment for two months and sampled at regular intervals. At each time-point we measured a series of physiological responses: maximum dark-adapted fluorescent yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), gross photosynthetic rate, respiration rate, symbiont population density, and light-adapted pHi of both the dinoflagellate symbiont and isolated host anemone cell. We observed increases in all but one photo-physiological parameter (Pgross:R ratio). At the cellular level, increases in light-adapted symbiont pHi were observed under both intermediate and high CO2 treatments, relative to control conditions (pHi 7.35 and 7.46 versus pHi 7.25, respectively). The response of light-adapted host pHi was more complex, however, with no change observed under the intermediate CO2 treatment, but a 0.3 pH-unit increase under the high CO2 treatment (pHi 7.19 and 7.48, respectively). This difference is likely a result of a disproportionate increase in photosynthesis relative to respiration at the higher CO2 concentration. Our results suggest that, rather than causing cellular acidosis, the addition of CO2 will enhance photosynthetic performance, enabling both the symbiont and host cell to withstand predicted ocean acidification scenarios.

Physiological response of the cold-water coral Desmophyllum dianthus to thermal stress and ocean acidification

Rising temperatures and ocean acidification driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions threaten both tropical and temperate corals. However, the synergistic effect of these stressors on coral physiology is still poorly understood, in particular for cold-water corals. This study assessed changes in key physiological parameters (calcification, respiration and ammonium excretion) of the widespread cold-water coral Desmophyllum dianthus maintained for 8 months at two temperatures (ambient 12 °C and elevated 15 °C) and two pCO2 conditions (ambient 390 ppm and elevated 750 ppm). At ambient temperatures no change in instantaneous calcification, respiration or ammonium excretion rates was observed at either pCO2 levels. Conversely, elevated temperature (15 °C) significantly reduced calcification rates, and combined elevated temperature and pCO2 significantly reduced respiration rates. Changes in the ratio of respired oxygen to excreted nitrogen (O:N), which provides information on the main sources of energy being metabolized, indicated a shift from mixed use of protein and carbohydrate/lipid as metabolic substrates under control conditions, to less efficient protein-dominated catabolism under both stressors. Overall, this study shows that the physiology of D. dianthus is more sensitive to thermal than pCO2 stress, and that the predicted combination of rising temperatures and ocean acidification in the coming decades may severely impact this cold-water coral species.

More Is Not Always Better: An Experimental Individual-Level Validation of the Randomized Response Technique and the Crosswise Model

Social desirability and the fear of sanctions can deter survey respondents from responding truthfully to sensitive questions. Self-reports on norm breaking behavior such as shoplifting, non-voting, or tax evasion may therefore be subject to considerable misreporting. To mitigate such misreporting, various indirect techniques for asking sensitive questions, such as the randomized response technique (RRT), have been proposed in the literature. In our study, we evaluate the viability of several variants of the RRT, including the recently proposed crosswise-model RRT, by comparing respondents’ self-reports on cheating in dice games to actual cheating behavior, thereby distinguishing between false negatives (underreporting) and false positives (overreporting). The study has been implemented as an online survey on Amazon Mechanical Turk (N = 6,505). Our results indicate that the forced-response RRT and the unrelated-question RRT, as implemented in our survey, fail to reduce the level of misreporting compared to conventional direct questioning. For the crosswise-model RRT, we do observe a reduction of false negatives (that is, an increase in the proportion of cheaters who admit having cheated). At the same time, however, there is an increase in false positives (that is, an increase in non-cheaters who falsely admit having cheated). Overall, our findings suggest that none of the implemented sensitive questions techniques substantially outperforms direct questioning. Furthermore, our study demonstrates the importance of distinguishing false negatives and false positives when evaluating the validity of sensitive question techniques.

A fatigue damage model for seismic response of RC structures

Numerous damage models have been developed in order to analyze seismic behavior. Among the different possibilities existing in the literature, it is very clear that models developed along the lines of continuum damage mechanics are more consistent with the definition of damage as a phenomenon with mechanical consequences because they include explicitly the coupling between damage and mechanical behavior. On the other hand, for seismic processes, phenomena such as low cycle fatigue may have a pronounced effect on the overall behavior of the frames and, therefore, its consideration turns out to be very important. However, most of existing models evaluate the damage only as a function of the maximum amplitude of cyclic deformation without considering the number of cycles. In this paper, a generalization of the simplified model proposed by Cipollina et al. [Cipollina A, López-Hinojosa A, Flórez-López J. Comput Struct 1995;54:1113–26] is made in order to include the low cycle fatigue. Such a model employs in its formulation irreversible thermodynamics and internal state variable theory.

A stochastic model updating method for parameter variability quantification based on response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation

Stochastic model updating must be considered for quantifying uncertainties inherently existing in real-world engineering structures. By this means the statistical properties,instead of deterministic values, of structural parameters can be sought indicating the parameter variability. However, the implementation of stochastic model updating is much more complicated than that of deterministic methods particularly in the aspects of theoretical complexity and low computational efficiency. This study attempts to propose a simple and cost-efficient method by decomposing a stochastic updating process into a series of deterministic ones with the aid of response surface models and Monte Carlo simulation. The response surface models are used as surrogates for original FE models in the interest of programming simplification, fast response computation and easy inverse optimization. Monte Carlo simulation is adopted for generating samples from the assumed or measured probability distributions of responses. Each sample corresponds to an individual deterministic inverse process predicting the deterministic values of parameters. Then the parameter means and variances can be statistically estimated based on all the parameter predictions by running all the samples. Meanwhile, the analysis of variance approach is employed for the evaluation of parameter variability significance. The proposed method has been demonstrated firstly on a numerical beam and then a set of nominally identical steel plates tested in the laboratory. It is found that compared with the existing stochastic model updating methods, the proposed method presents similar accuracy while its primary merits consist in its simple implementation and cost efficiency in response computation and inverse optimization.

Experimental characterization and implementation of an integrated autoregressive model to predict the thermal performance of vegetal façades

Experimental characterization and implementation of an integrated autoregressive model to predict the thermal performance of vegetal façades

Development of a PWR-W and an AP1000® containment building 3D model with a CFD code for Best-Estimate Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis

The simulation of design basis accidents in a containment building is usually conducted with a lumped parameter model. The codes normally used by Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) for that license analysis are WGOTHIC or COCO, which are suitable to provide an adequate estimation of the overall peak temperature and pressure of the containment. However, for the detailed study of the thermal-hydraulic behavior in every room and compartment of the containment building, it could be more convenient to model the containment with a more detailed 3D representation of the geometry of the whole building. The main objective of this project is to obtain a standard PWR Westinghouse as well as an AP1000® containment model for a CFD code to analyze the thermal-hydraulic detailed behavior during a design basis accident. In this paper the development and testing of both containment models is presented.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

Dose-response resistance to HIV-1/MuLV pseudotype virus ex vivo in a hairpin ribozyme transgenic mouse model

We have investigated the efficacy of a hairpin ribozyme targeting the 5′ leader sequence of HIV-1 RNA in a transgenic model system. Primary spleen cells derived from transgenic or control mice were infected with HIV-1/MuLV pseudotype virus. A significantly reduced susceptibility to infection in ribozyme-expressing transgenic spleen cells (P = 0.01) was shown. Variation of transgene-expression levels between littermates revealed a dose response between ribozyme expression and viral resistance, with an estimated cut off value below 0.2 copies of hairpin ribozyme per cell. These findings open up possibilities for studies on ribozyme efficacy and anti-HIV-1 gene therapy.

Fine specificity of the antibody response to myelin basic protein in the central nervous system in multiple sclerosis: the minimal B-cell epitope and a model of its features.

T cells, B cells, and antibody are found in the white matter of the central nervous system in multiple sclerosis. The epitope center for the antibody response to human myelin basic protein (MBP) fits precisely the minimal epitope Pro85-Val-Val-His-Phe-Phe-Lys-Asn-Ile-Val-Thr-Pro96 for that reported for HLA DR2b (DRB1*1501)-restricted T cells that recognize MBP [Wucherpfenning, K.W., Sette, A., Southwood, S., Oseroff, C., Matsui, M., Strominger, J. & Hafler, D. (1994) J. Exp. Med. 179, 279-290], and overlaps with the reported DR2a-restricted epitope for T cells reactive to MBP [Martin, R., Howell, M. D., Jaraquemada, D., Furlage, M., Richert, J., Brostoff, S., Long, E. O., McFarlin, D. E. & McFarland, H. F. (1991) J. Exp. Med. 173, 19-24]. We describe a molecular model of this epitope.