Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model

Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.

Increased sensitivity in mapping task demand in visuospatial processing using reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictors in rapid event-related fMRI

Searching for the neural correlates of visuospatial processing using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is usually done in an event-related framework of cognitive subtraction, applying a paradigm comprising visuospatial cognitive components and a corresponding control task. Besides methodological caveats of the cognitive subtraction approach, the standard general linear model with fixed hemodynamic response predictors bears the risk of being underspecified. It does not take into account the variability of the blood oxygen level-dependent signal response due to variable task demand and performance on the level of each single trial. This underspecification may result in reduced sensitivity regarding the identification of task-related brain regions. In a rapid event-related fMRI study, we used an extended general linear model including single-trial reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictors for the analysis of an angle discrimination task. In addition to the already known regions in superior and inferior parietal lobule, mapping the reaction-time-dependent hemodynamic response predictor revealed a more specific network including task demand-dependent regions not being detectable using the cognitive subtraction method, such as bilateral caudate nucleus and insula, right inferior frontal gyrus and left precentral gyrus.

Intra-subject variability in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder

BACKGROUND: This study is based on a comprehensive survey of the neuropsychological attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) literature and presents the first psychometric analyses of different parameters of intra-subject variability (ISV) in patients with ADHD compared to healthy controls, using the Continuous Performance Test, a Go-NoGo task, a Stop Signal Task, as well as N-back tasks. METHODS: Data of 57 patients with ADHD and 53 age- and gender-matched controls were available for statistical analysis. Different parameters were used to describe central tendency (arithmetic mean, median), dispersion (standard deviation, coefficient of variation, consecutive variance), and shape (skewness, excess) of reaction time distributions, as well as errors (commissions and omissions). RESULTS: Group comparisons revealed by far the strongest effect sizes for measures of dispersion, followed by measures of central tendency, and by commission errors. Statistical control of ISV reduced group differences in the other measures substantially. One (patients) or two (controls) principal components explained up to 67% of the inter-individual differences in intra-individual variability. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that, across a variety of neuropsychological tests, measures of ISV contribute best to group discrimination, with limited incremental validity of measures of central tendency and errors. Furthermore, increased ISV might be a unitary construct in ADHD.

Platelet receptors for adhesion and activation. Variability as a factor in susceptibility to cardiovascular diseases

Polymorphisms in coagulation factors leading to altered susceptibility to cardiovascular diseases have been known for some time and some are now well-established risk factors. More recently, an increasing number of polymorphisms have been identified in platelet receptors and a series of studies indicate that these too may play a role as individual risk factors for stroke and myocardial infarction. The effect of these platelet polymorphisms appears less clear-cut than some of the coagulation factor effects and other, associated, risk factors may be important in defining their role. In this review platelet receptor polymorphisms and their role as risk factors are surveyed and their possible relevance discussed.

Variability in outcome and resource use in intensive care units

OBJECTIVE: To examine variability in outcome and resource use between ICUs. Secondary aims: to assess whether outcome and resource use are related to ICU structure and process, to explore factors associated with efficient resource use. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cohort study, based on the SAPS 3 database in 275 ICUs worldwide. PATIENTS: 16,560 adults. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Outcome was defined by standardized mortality rate (SMR). Standardized resource use (SRU) was calculated based on length of stay in the ICU, adjusted for severity of acute illness. Each unit was assigned to one of four groups: "most efficient" (SMR and SRU < median); "least efficient" (SMR, SRU > median); "overachieving" (low SMR, high SRU), "underachieving" (high SMR, low SRU). Univariate analysis and stepwise logistic regression were used to test for factors separating "most" from "least efficient" units. Overall median SMR was 1.00 (IQR 0.77-1.28) and SRU 1.07 (0.76-1.58). There were 91 "most efficient", 91 "least efficient", 47 "overachieving", and 46 "underachieving" ICUs. Number of physicians, of full-time specialists, and of nurses per bed, clinical rounds, availability of physicians, presence of emergency department, and geographical region were significant in univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis only interprofessional rounds, emergency department, and geographical region entered the model as significant. CONCLUSIONS: Despite considerable variability in outcome and resource use only few factors of ICU structure and process were associated with efficient use of ICU. This suggests that other confounding factors play an important role.

Heart rate variability does not discriminate between different levels of haemodynamic responsiveness during surgical anaesthesia

BACKGROUND: Hypnotic depth but not haemodynamic responsiveness is measured with EEG-based monitors. In this study we compared heart rate variability (HRV) in unstimulated patients and stimulation-induced HRV at different levels of anaesthesia. METHODS: A total of 95 ASA I or II patients were randomly assigned to five groups (Group 1: BIS 45(5), remifentanil 1 ng ml(-1); Group 2: BIS 45(5), remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1); Group 3: BIS 45(5), remifentanil 4 ng ml(-1); Group 4: BIS 30(5), remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1); Group 5: BIS 60(5), remifentanil 2 ng ml(-1)). A time- and frequency-domain analysis of the RR interval (RRI) from the electrocardiogram was performed. HRV before induction, before and after a 5 s tetanic stimulus of the ulnar nerve, and before and after tracheal intubation was compared between groups, between stimuli, and between responders to intubation [systolic arterial pressure (SAP) increase >20 mm Hg, a maximal heart rate (HR) after intubation >90 min(-1) or both] and non-responders (anova). RESULTS: Induction of anaesthesia significantly lowered HR and HRV. Mean RRI before stimulation was higher in G3 than in G1, G2, and G4 (P < 0.001), whereas the other HRV parameters were similar. Intubation induced a greater HRV response than tetanic stimulation. The mean RRI after intubation was lower in G3 compared with the other groups and the sd of the RRI after tetanic stimulation was lower in G3 compared with G5. Otherwise, unstimulated HRV and stimulation-induced HRV were similar in responders and non-responders. CONCLUSION: HRV parameters discriminate between awake and general anaesthesia, are different after tracheal intubation and a 5 s ulnar nerve stimulation, but do not discriminate between different levels of haemodynamic responsiveness during surgical anaesthesia.

Variability in pain response to a non-pharmacological intervention across repeated routine pain exposure in preterm infants: a feasibility study

AIM: To explore the variability in pain response in preterm infants across time who received sucrose during routine heel stick. METHOD: Single group, exploratory repeated measures design. SETTING: Two tertiary level neonatal intensive care units (NICU) in Switzerland. SUBJECTS: Nine preterm infants born between 28 2/7 and 31 4/7 weeks of gestation during their first 14 days of life. MEASUREMENTS: Pain was assessed by the Bernese Pain Scale for Neonates (BPSN), the Premature Infant Pain Profile (PIPP) and the Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). Salivary cortisol was analysed. RESULTS: 72-94% of the variability was within-subject variability, indicating inconsistency of pain responses across the 5 heel sticks. Interrater agreement was highest during heel sticks 1-3 and decreased during heel stick 4 and 5, indicating a possible alteration of pain patterns. No significant differences in the amount of cortisol could be detected before and after the heel sticks (p = 0.55), indicating no stress-induced peak after the painful intervention. However, a general gradual decrease of cortisol levels across time could be detected. CONCLUSION: A high variability in pain response among preterm neonates across time could be described. Consistency of cortisol levels before and after the heel sticks could indicate the effectiveness of sucrose across time.

Effects of pediatric adiposity on heart rate variability

The relationship between obesity and heart rate variability (HRV) has been studied in adults and adolescents, but is not determined in young pediatrics. The purpose of this study was to assess autonomic activity using HRV in a pediatric population. We hypothesized that obese children would have reduced parasympathetic and increased sympathetic activity compared to age-matched subjects. 42 pediatric subjects (ages 3-5) were classified into 3 groups based on body mass index-for-age; normal, overweight and obese. HRV and respiratory rate were recorded during 3 minute baseline, 2 minute isometric handgrip and 3 minute recovery. HRV was analyzed in the time domain [heart rate (HR), RR interval (RRI) and RRI standard deviation (RRISD)] and frequency domain [low frequency (LF), high frequency (HF) and LF/HF ratio] using repeated measures ANOVA. Spearman’s correlations were used to examine the relations between BMI and HRV at rest. Significant condition effects were found between baseline, exercise and recovery, but these responses were not significantly different between the normal, overweight and obese children. BMI was negatively correlated with LF/HF, while BMI was positively correlated with RRISD, LF, HF and nHF. Our data demonstrate that higher BMI in the pediatric population is correlated with higher parasympathetic and lower sympathetic activity. These findings are contrary to HRV responses observed in adults and adolescents, suggesting complex relationships between age, obesity and autonomic control of the heart. The data supports the concept of an age reliance of HRV and a novel relationship between adiposity and body mass index in 3-5 year olds.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Analysis of atmospheric transport and the effects of seasonal and interannual transport variability on measurements made at the Pico Mountain observatory

A non-hierarchical K-means algorithm is used to cluster 47 years (1960–2006) of 10-day HYSPLIT backward trajectories to the Pico Mountain (PM) observatory on a seasonal basis. The resulting cluster centers identify the major transport pathways and collectively comprise a long-term climatology of transport to the observatory. The transport climatology improves our ability to interpret the observations made there and our understanding of pollution source regions to the station and the central North Atlantic region. I determine which pathways dominate transport to the observatory and examine the impacts of these transport patterns on the O3, NOy, NOx, and CO measurements made there during 2001–2006. Transport from the U.S., Canada, and the Atlantic most frequently reaches the station, but Europe, east Africa, and the Pacific can also contribute significantly depending on the season. Transport from Canada was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in spring and winter, and transport from the Pacific was uncorrelated with the NAO. The highest CO and O3 are observed during spring. Summer is also characterized by high CO and O3 and the highest NOy and NOx of any season. Previous studies at the station attributed the summer time high CO and O3 to transport of boreal wildfire emissions (for 2002–2004), and boreal fires continued to affect the station during 2005 and 2006. The particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to calculate anthropogenic and biomass-burning CO tracer values at the station in an attempt to identify the regions responsible for the high CO and O3 observations during spring and biomass-burning impacts in summer.

Development of record-breaking statistics for climatological time-series analysis

The number of record-breaking events expected to occur in a strictly stationary time-series depends only on the number of values in the time-series, regardless of distribution. This holds whether the events are record-breaking highs or lows and whether we count from past to present or present to past. However, these symmetries are broken in distinct ways by trends in the mean and variance. We define indices that capture this information and use them to detect weak trends from multiple time-series. Here, we use these methods to answer the following questions: (1) Is there a variability trend among globally distributed surface temperature time-series? We find a significant decreasing variability over the past century for the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). This corresponds to about a 10% change in the standard deviation of inter-annual monthly mean temperature distributions. (2) How are record-breaking high and low surface temperatures in the United States affected by time period? We investigate the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and find that the ratio of record-breaking highs to lows in 2006 increases as the time-series extend further into the past. When we consider the ratio as it evolves with respect to a fixed start year, we find it is strongly correlated with the ensemble mean. We also compare the ratios for USHCN and GHCN (minus USHCN stations). We find the ratios grow monotonically in the GHCN data set, but not in the USHCN data set. (3) Do we detect either mean or variance trends in annual precipitation within the United States? We find that the total annual and monthly precipitation in the United States (USHCN) has increased over the past century. Evidence for a trend in variance is inconclusive.

Diurnal variability of C-reactive protein in obstructive sleep apnea

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to examine the diurnal variability of C-reactive protein (CRP) in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). METHODS AND MEASUREMENTS: Participants included 44 women and men with untreated OSA (mean apnea/hypopnea index = 37.5, SD +/- 28) and 23 healthy adults with no OSA. Sleep was monitored with polysomnography in the University of California San Diego General Clinical Research Center. Over a 24-h period, blood was collected every 2 h, and CRP levels were determined. RESULTS: Adjusting for age, gender, and body mass index, a significant group by time interaction showed that patients with OSA had higher CRP levels during the daytime (8:00 a.m.-8:00 p.m.) versus the nighttime (10:00 p.m. until 6:00 p.m.; p < 0.001). Non-apneics showed no significant change in CRP levels during the 24 h. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that sleep apnea patients have disproportionately elevated CRP levels in the day versus the nighttime, possibly as a result of carryover effects of nighttime arousal into the daytime.

Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years

Large progress has been made in the past few years towards quantifying and understanding climate variability during past centuries. At the same time, present-day climate has been studied using state-of-the-art data sets and tools with respect to the physical and chemical mechanisms governing climate variability. Both the understanding of the past and the knowledge of the processes are important for assessing and attributing the anthropogenic effect on present and future climate. The most important time period in this context is the past approximately 100 years, which comprises large natural variations and extremes (such as long droughts) as well as anthropogenic influences, most pronounced in the past few decades. Recent and ongoing research efforts steadily improve the observational record of the 20th century, while atmospheric circulation models are used to underpin the mechanisms behind large climatic variations. Atmospheric chemistry and composition are important for understanding climate variability and change, and considerable progress has been made in the past few years in this field. The evolving integration of these research areas in a more comprehensive analysis of recent climate variability was reflected in the organisation of a workshop “Climate variability and extremes in the past 100 years” in Gwatt near Thun (Switzerland), 24–26 July 2006. The aim of this workshop was to bring together scientists working on data issues together with statistical climatologists, modellers, and atmospheric chemists to discuss gaps in our understanding of climate variability during the past approximately 100 years.

1200 years of decadal-scale variability of Mediterranean vegetation and climate at Pantelleria Island, Italy

A new sedimentary sequence from Lago di Venere on Pantelleria Island, located in the Strait of Sicily between Tunisia and Sicily was recovered. The lake is located in the coastal infra-Mediterranean vegetation belt at 2 m a.s.l. Pollen, charcoal and sedimentological analyses are used to explore linkages among vegetation, fire and climate at a decadal scale over the past 1200 years. A dry period from ad 800 to 1000 that corresponds to the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (WMP) is inferred from sedimentological analysis. The high content of carbonate recorded in this period suggests a dry phase, when the ratio of evaporation/precipitation was high. During this period the island was dominated by thermophilous and drought-tolerant taxa, such as Quercus ilex, Olea, Pistacia and Juniperus. A marked shift in the sediment properties is recorded at ad 1000, when carbonate content became very low suggesting wetter conditions until ad 1850–1900. Broadly, this period coincides with the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA), which was characterized by wetter and colder conditions in Europe. During this time rather mesic conifers (i.e. Pinus pinaster), shrubs and herbs (e.g. Erica arborea and Selaginella denticulata) expanded, whereas more drought-adapted species (e.g. Q. ilex) declined. Charcoal data suggest enhanced fire activity during the LIA probably as a consequence of anthropogenic burning and/or more flammable fuel (e.g. resinous Pinus biomass). The last century was characterized by a shift to high carbonate content, indicating a change towards drier conditions, and re-expansion of Q. ilex and Olea. The post-LIA warming is in agreement with historical documents and meteorological time series. Vegetation dynamics were co-determined by agricultural activities on the island. Anthropogenic indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Sporormiella) reveal the importance of crops and grazing on the island. Our pollen data suggest that extensive logging caused the local extinction of deciduous Quercus pubescens around ad1750.

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971–2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.