A small molecule activator of p300/CBP histone acetyltransferase promotes survival and neurite growth in a cellular model of Parkinson’s disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disease characterised by motor and non-motor symptoms, resulting from the degeneration of nigrostriatal dopaminergic neurons and peripheral autonomic neurons. Given the limited success of neurotrophic factors in clinical trials, there is a need to identify new small molecule drugs and drug targets to develop novel therapeutic strategies to protect all neurons that degenerate in PD. Epigenetic dysregulation has been implicated in neurodegenerative disorders, while targeting histone acetylation is a promising therapeutic avenue for PD. We and others have demonstrated that histone deacetylase inhibitors have neurotrophic effects in experimental models of PD. Activators of histone acetyltransferases (HAT) provide an alternative approach for the selective activation of gene expression, however little is known about the potential of HAT activators as drug therapies for PD. To explore this potential, the present study investigated the neurotrophic effects of CTPB (N-(4-chloro-3-trifluoromethyl-phenyl)-2-ethoxy-6-pentadecyl-benzamide), which is a potent small molecule activator of the histone acetyltransferase p300/CBP, in the SH-SY5Y neuronal cell line. We report that CTPB promoted the survival and neurite growth of the SH-SY5Y cells, and also protected these cells from cell death induced by the neurotoxin 6-hydroxydopamine. This study is the first to investigate the phenotypic effects of the HAT activator CTPB, and to demonstrate that p300/CBP HAT activation has neurotrophic effects in a cellular model of PD.

Digoxin use after diagnosis of prostate cancer and survival: a population-based cohort study

PURPOSE:
Preclinical studies have shown that digoxin exerts anticancer effects on different cancer cell lines including prostate cancer. A recent observational study has shown that digoxin use was associated with a 25% reduction in prostate cancer risk. The aim of this study was to investigate whether digoxin use after diagnosis of prostate cancer was associated with decreased prostate cancer-specific mortality.
METHODS:
A cohort of 13 134 patients with prostate cancer newly diagnosed from 1998 to 2009 was identified from English cancer registries and linked to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (to provide digoxin and other prescription records) and to the Office of National Statistics mortality data (to identify 2010 prostate cancer-specific deaths). Using time-dependent Cox regression models, unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the association between post-diagnostic exposure to digoxin and prostate cancer-specific mortality.
RESULTS:
Overall, 701 (5%) patients with prostate cancer used digoxin after diagnosis. Digoxin use was associated with an increase in prostate cancer-specific mortality before adjustment (HR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.32-1.91), but after adjustment for confounders, the association was attenuated (adjusted HR = 1.13; 95% CI 0.93-1.37) and there was no evidence of a dose response.
CONCLUSIONS:
In this large population-based prostate cancer cohort, there was no evidence of a reduction in prostate cancer-specific mortality with digoxin use after diagnosis.

Statin use and breast cancer survival: a nationwide cohort study in Scotland

Background: Preclinical evidence suggests that statins could delay cancer progression. Previous epidemiological findings have been inconsistent and some have been limited by small sample sizes, as well as certain time-related biases. This study aimed to investigate whether breast cancer patients who were exposed to statins had reduced breast cancer-specific mortality. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 15,140 newly diagnosed invasive breast cancer patients diagnosed from 2009 to 2012 within the Scottish Cancer Registry. Dispensed medication usage was obtained from linkages to the Scottish Prescribing Information System and breast cancer-specific deaths were identified from National Records of Scotland Death Records. Using time-dependent Cox regression models, hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for the association between post-diagnostic exposure to statins (including simvastatin) and breast cancer-specific mortality. Adjustments were made for a range of potential confounders including age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, cancer stage, grade, cancer treatments received, comorbidities, socioeconomic status and use of aspirin. Results: A total of 1,190 breast cancer-specific deaths occurred up to January 2015. Overall, after adjustment for potential confounders, there was no evidence of an association between statin use and breast cancer-specific death (adjusted HR 0.93, 95 % CI 0.77, 1.12). No significant associations were observed in dose–response analyses or in analysis of all-cause mortality. For simvastatin use specifically, a weak non-significant reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality was observed compared to non-users (adjusted HR 0.89, 95 % CI 0.73, 1.08). Statin use before diagnosis was weakly associated with a reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality (adjusted HR 0.85, 95 % CI 0.74, 0.98). Conclusion: Overall, we found little evidence of a protective association between post-diagnostic statin use and cancer-specific mortality in a large nation-wide cohort of breast cancer patients. These findings will help inform the decision whether to conduct randomised controlled trials of statins as an adjuvant treatment in breast cancer.

Outlier effects on robust joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data

Robust joint modelling is an emerging field of research. Through the advancements in electronic patient healthcare records, the popularly of joint modelling approaches has grown rapidly in recent years providing simultaneous analysis of longitudinal and survival data. This research advances previous work through the development of a novel robust joint modelling methodology for one of the most common types of standard joint models, that which links a linear mixed model with a Cox proportional hazards model. Through t-distributional assumptions, longitudinal outliers are accommodated with their detrimental impact being down weighed and thus providing more efficient and reliable estimates. The robust joint modelling technique and its major benefits are showcased through the analysis of Northern Irish end stage renal disease patients. With an ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease within the United Kingdom, there is a pressing demand to investigate the detrimental relationship between the changing haemoglobin levels of haemodialysis patients and their survival. As outliers within the NI renal data were found to have significantly worse survival, identification of outlying individuals through robust joint modelling may aid nephrologists to improve patient's survival. A simulation study was also undertaken to explore the difference between robust and standard joint models in the presence of increasing proportions and extremity of longitudinal outliers. More efficient and reliable estimates were obtained by robust joint models with increasing contrast between the robust and standard joint models when a greater proportion of more extreme outliers are present. Through illustration of the gains in efficiency and reliability of parameters when outliers exist, the potential of robust joint modelling is evident. The research presented in this thesis highlights the benefits and stresses the need to utilise a more robust approach to joint modelling in the presence of longitudinal outliers.

Statin use and survival in colorectal cancer: Results from a population-based cohort study and an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between statin use and survival in a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) cohort and perform an updated meta-analysis to quantify the magnitude of any association.

METHODS: A cohort of 8391 patients with newly diagnosed Dukes' A-C CRC (2009-2012) was identified from the Scottish Cancer Registry. This cohort was linked to the Prescribing Information System and the National Records of Scotland Death Records (until January 2015) to identify 1064 colorectal cancer-specific deaths. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for cancer-specific mortality by statin use were calculated using time dependent Cox regression models. The systematic review included relevant studies published before January 2016. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined HRs for associations between statin use and cancer-specific and overall mortality.

RESULTS: In the Scottish cohort, statin use before diagnosis (HR=0.84, 95% CI 0.75-0.94), but not after (HR=0.90, 95% CI 0.77-1.05), was associated with significantly improved cancer-specific mortality. The systematic review identified 15 relevant studies. In the meta-analysis, there was consistent (I(2)=0%,heterogeneity P=0.57) evidence of a reduction in cancer-specific mortality with statin use before diagnosis in 6 studies (n=86,622, pooled HR=0.82, 95% CI 0.79-0.86) but this association was less apparent and more heterogeneous (I(2)=67%,heterogeneity P=0.03) with statin use after diagnosis in 4 studies (n=19,152, pooled HR=0.84, 95% CI 0.68-1.04).

CONCLUSION: In a Scottish CRC cohort and updated meta-analysis there was some evidence that statin use was associated with improved survival. However, these associations were weak in magnitude and, particularly for post-diagnosis use, varied markedly between studies.

Improvement of Mineral and Bone Metabolism Markers Is Associated with Better Survival in Haemodialysis Patients: the COSMOS Study

BACKGROUND: Abnormalities in serum phosphorus, calcium and parathyroid hormone (PTH) have been associated with poor survival in haemodialysis patients. This COSMOS (Current management Of Secondary hyperparathyroidism: a Multicentre Observational Study) analysis assesses the association of high and low serum phosphorus, calcium and PTH with a relative risk of mortality. Furthermore, the impact of changes in these parameters on the relative risk of mortality throughout the 3-year follow-up has been investigated. METHODS:COSMOS is a 3-year, multicentre, open-cohort, prospective study carried out in 6797 adult chronic haemodialysis patients randomly selected from 20 European countries. RESULTS:Using Cox proportional hazard regression models and penalized splines analysis, it was found that both high and low serum phosphorus, calcium and PTH were associated with a higher risk of mortality. The serum values associated with the minimum relative risk of mortality were 4.4 mg/dL for serum phosphorus, 8.8 mg/dL for serum calcium and 398 pg/mL for serum PTH. The lowest mortality risk ranges obtained using as base the previous values were 3.6-5.2 mg/dL for serum phosphorus, 7.9-9.5 mg/dL for serum calcium and 168-674 pg/mL for serum PTH. Decreases in serum phosphorus and calcium and increases in serum PTH in patients with baseline values of >5.2 mg/dL (phosphorus), >9.5 mg/dL (calcium) and <168 pg/mL (PTH), respectively, were associated with improved survival. CONCLUSIONS:COSMOS provides evidence of the association of serum phosphorus, calcium and PTH and mortality, and suggests survival benefits of controlling chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorder biochemical parameters in CKD5D patients.

A boat hitchhiker's guide to survival: Cabomba caroliniana desiccation resistance and survival ability

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed macrophyte that has become a serious invader. Cabomba predominantly spreads by stem fragments, in particular through unintentional transport on boat trailers ('hitch hiking'). Desiccation resistance affects the potential dispersal radius. Therefore, knowledge of maximum survival times allows predicting future dispersal. Experiments were conducted to assess desiccation resistance and survival ability of cabomba fragments under various environmental scenarios. Cabomba fragments were highly tolerant of desiccation. However, even relatively low wind speeds resulted in rapid mass loss, indicating a low survival rate of fragments exposed to air currents, such as fragments transported on a boat trailer. The experiments indicated that cabomba could survive at least 3 h of overland transport if exposed to wind. However, even small clumps of cabomba could potentially survive up to 42 h. Thus, targeting the transport of clumps of macrophytes should receive high priority in management. The high resilience of cabomba to desiccation demonstrates the risk of continuing spread. Because of the high probability of fragment viability on arrival, preventing fragment uptake on boat trailers is paramount to reduce the risk of further spread. These findings will assist improving models that predict the spread of aquatic invasive macrophytes.

Estimating Population Trends in American Woodcock (Scolopax Minor) Using Population Reconstruction Models

The American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population index in North America has declined 0.9% a year since 1968 prompting managers to identify priority information and management needs for the species (Sauer et al 2008). Managers identified a need for a population model that better informs on the status of American woodcock populations (Case et al. 2010). Population reconstruction techniques use long-term age-at-harvest data and harvest effort to estimate abundances with error estimates. Four new models were successfully developed using survey data (1999 to 2013). The optimal model estimates sex specific harvest probability for adult females at 0.148 (SE = 0.017) and all other age-sex cohorts at 0.082 (SE = 0.008) for the most current year 2013. The model estimated a yearly survival rate of 0.528 (SE = 0.008). Total abundance ranged from 5,206,000 woodcock in 2007 to 6,075,800 woodcock in 1999. This study represents the first population estimates of woodcock populations.

Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

Evaluating environmental, demographic and genetic effects on population-level survival in an island endemic

The population dynamics of island species are considered particularly sensitive to variation in environmental, demographic and/or genetic processes. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate the relative importance of these processes for key vital rates in island endemics. We integrated the results of long-term capture–mark–recapture analysis, prey surveys, habitat quality assessments and molecular analysis to determine the causes of variation in the survival rates of Komodo dragons Varanus komodoensis at 10 sites on four islands in Komodo National Park, Indonesia. Using open population capture–mark–recapture methods, we ranked competing models that considered environmental, ecological, genetic and demographic effects on site-specific Komodo dragon survival rates. Site-specific survival rates ranged from 0.49 (95% CI: 0.33–0.68) to 0.92 (0.79–0.97) in the 10 study sites. The three highest-ranked models (i.e. ΔQAICc < 2) explained ∼70% of variation in Komodo dragon survival rates and identified interactions between inbreeding coefficients, prey biomass density and habitat quality as important explanatory variables. There was evidence of additive effects from ecological and genetic (e.g. inbreeding) processes affecting Komodo dragon survival rates. Our results indicate that maintaining high ungulate prey biomass and habitat quality would enhance the persistence of Komodo dragon populations. Assisted gene flow may also increase the genetic and demographic viability of the smaller Komodo dragon populations.

Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009

Background: Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009. Methods: National data on incident oral cancers [ICD 10 codes C01-C06] were obtained from the National Cancer Registry Ireland from 1994 to 2009. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) in oral cancer incidence during 1994–2009 using joinpoint regression software (version 4.2.0.2). The lifetime risk of oral cancer to age 79 was estimated using Irish incidence and population data from 2007 to 2009. Survival rates were also examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models to explore the influence of several demographic/lifestyle covariates with follow-up to end 2012. Results: Data were obtained on 2,147 oral cancer incident cases. Men accounted for two-thirds of oral cancer cases (n = 1,430). Annual rates in men decreased significantly during 1994–2001 (APC = -4.8 %, 95 % CI: −8.7 to −0.7) and then increased moderately (APC = 2.3 %, 95 % CI: −0.9 to 5.6). In contrast, annual incidence increased significantly in women throughout the study period (APC = 3.2 %, 95 % CI: 1.9 to 4.6). There was an elevated risk of death among oral cancer patients who were: older than 60 years of age; smokers; unemployed or retired; those living in the most deprived areas; and those whose tumour was sited in the base of the tongue. Being married and diagnosed in more recent years were associated with reduced risk of death. Conclusion: Oral cancer increased significantly in both sexes between 1999 and 2009 in Ireland. Our analyses demonstrate the influence of measured factors such as smoking, time of diagnosis and age on observed trends. Unmeasured factors such as alcohol use, HPV and dietary factors may also be contributing to increased trends. Several of these are modifiable risk factors which are crucial for informing public health policies, and thus more research is needed.

Drought survival strategies, dispersal potential and persistence of invertebrate species in an intermittent stream landscape

Intermittent stream systems create a mosaic of aquatic habitat that changes through time, potentially challenging freshwater invertebrate dispersal. Invertebrates inhabiting these mosaics may show stronger dispersal capacity than those in perennial stream systems. To relate different combinations of dispersal and drought survival strategies to species persistence, we compared the distribution and dispersal potential of six invertebrate species across all streams in a montane landscape where drying is becoming increasingly frequent and prolonged. Invertebrates were collected from seventeen streams in the Victoria Range, Grampians National Park, Victoria, Australia. The species analysed were as follows: the caddisflies Lectrides varians Moseley (Leptoceridae) and Agapetus sp. (Glossosomatidae); the mayflies Nousia AV1 and Koorrnonga AV3 (Leptophlebiidae); the water penny beetle Sclerocyphon sp. (Psephenidae); and a freshwater crayfish Geocharax sp. nov. 1 (Parastacidae). These species were widespread in the streams and varied in their dispersal and drought survival strategies. The distribution of each species across the Victoria Range, their drought responses and within-stream habitat associations were determined. Hypotheses of the dispersal capacity and population structure for each species were developed and compared to four models of gene flow: Death Valley Model (DVM), Stream Hierarchy Model (SHM), Headwater Model (HM) or panmixia (PAN). Molecular genetic methods were then used to infer population structure and dispersal capacity for each species. The large caddisfly Lectrides resisted drought through aestivation and was panmictic (PAN) indicating strong dispersal capacity. Conversely, the small caddisfly Agapetus relied on perennially flowing reaches and gene flow was limited to short distances among stream headwaters, resembling the HM. Both mayflies depended on perennial surface water during drying and showed evidence of gene flow among streams: Koorrnonga mainly dispersed along stream channels within catchments, resembling the SHM, whereas Nousia appeared to disperse across land by adult flight. Sclerocyphon relied on perennial water to survive drying and showed an unusual pattern of genetic structure that indicated limited dispersal but did not resemble any of the models. Geocharax survived drought through aestivation or residence in perennial pools, and high levels of genetic structure indicated limited dispersal among streams, resembling the DVM. Despite good knowledge of species' drought survival strategies, the population structure of four species differed from predictions. Dispersal capacity varied strongly among species; most species were poor dispersers and only one species showed panmixia. Therefore, intermittent stream species may not necessarily be better dispersers than those in perennial streams. Species showing strong drought resistance strategies differed in dispersal capacity. Knowledge of life-history characteristics, distribution and refuge use does not necessarily enable successful prediction of invertebrate dispersal pathways or population structure. Dispersal among intermittent streams may be restricted to relatively short distances (km) for most invertebrate species. Thus, frequent drought refuges (perennial water) that provide strong connectivity to subpopulations through stream flow (hydrological dispersal), or continuous terrestrial vegetation (flight dispersal), will be critical to maintain genetic diversity, adaptability and population persistence.

Using induced pluripotent stem cells (IPSCS) as a replacement for in vivo models to screen novel therapies in chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML)

Tyrpsine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) effectively target progenitors and mature leukaemic cells but prove less effective at eliminating leukaemic stem cells (LSCs) in patients with chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). Several reports indicate that the TGFβ superfamily pathway is important for LSC survival and quiescence. We conducted extensive microarray analyses to compare expression patterns in normal haemopoietic stem cells (HSC) and progenitors with CML LSC and progenitor populations in chronic phase (CP), accelerated phase (AP) and blast crisis (BC) CML. The BMP/SMAD pathway and downstream signalling molecules were identified as significantly deregulated in all three phases of CML. The changes observed could potentiate altered autocrine signalling, as BMP2, BMP4 (p<0.05), and ACTIVIN A (p<0.001) were all down regulated, whereas BMP7, BMP10 and TGFβ (p<0.05) were up regulated in CP. This was accompanied by up regulation of BMPRI (p<0.05) and downstream SMADs (p<0.005). Interestingly, as CML progressed, the profile altered, with BC patients showing significant over-expression of ACTIVIN A and its receptor ACVR1C. To further characterise the BMP pathway and identify potential candidate biomarkers within a larger cohort, expression analysis of 42 genes in 60 newly diagnosed CP CML patient samples, enrolled on a phase III clinical trial (www.spirit-cml.org) with greater than 12 months follow-up data on their response to TKI was performed. Analysis revealed that the pathway was highly deregulated, with no clear distinction when patients were stratified into good, intermediate and poor response to treatment. One of the major issues in developing new treatments to target LSCs is the ability to test small molecule inhibitors effectively as it is difficult to obtain sufficient LSCs from primary patient material. Using reprogramming technologies, we generated induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) from CP CML patients and normal donors. CML- and normal-derived iPSCs were differentiated along the mesodermal axis to generate haemopoietic and endothelial precursors (haemangioblasts). IPSC-derived haemangioblasts exhibited sensitivity to TKI treatment with increased apoptosis and reduction in the phosphorylation of downstream target proteins. 4 Dual inhibition studies were performed using BMP pathway inhibitors in combination with TKI on CML cell lines, primary cells and patient derived iPSCs. Results indicate that they act synergistically to target CML cells both in the presence and absence of BMP4 ligand. Inhibition resulted in decreased proliferation, irreversible cell cycle arrest, increased apoptosis, reduced haemopoietic colony formation, altered gene expression pattern, reduction in self-renewal and a significant reduction in the phosphorylation of downstream target proteins. These changes offer a therapeutic window in CML, with intervention using BMP inhibitors in combination with TKI having the potential to prevent LSC self-renewal and improve outcome for patients. By successfully developing and validating iPSCs for CML drug screening we hope to substantially reduce the reliance on animal models for early preclinical drug screening in leukaemia.