The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Parametric modelling for the efficient design of daylight strategies with complex geometries

Daylight devices are important components of any climate responsive façade system. But, the evolution of parametric CAD systems and digital fabrication has had an impact on architectural form so that regular forms are shifting to complex geometries. Architectural and engineering integration of daylight devices in envelopes with complex geometries is a challenge in terms of design and performance evaluation. The purpose of this paper is to assess daylight performance of a building with a climatic responsive envelope with complex geometry that integrates shading devices in the façade. The case study is based on the Esplanade buildings in Singapore. Climate-based day-light metrics such as Daylight Availability and Useful Daylight Illuminance are used. DIVA (daylight simulation), and Grasshopper (parametric analysis) plug-ins for Rhinoceros have been employed to examine the range of performance possibilities. Parameters such as dimension, inclination of the device, projected shadows and shape have been changed in order to maximize daylight availability and Useful Daylight Illuminance while minimizing glare probability. While orientation did not have a great impact on the results, aperture of the shading devices did, showing that shading devices with a projection of 1.75 m to 2.00 m performed best, achieving target lighting levels without issues of glare.

What's in it for me? Virtual conspicuous donation strategies as a source of value in blood donation

Providing an incentive is becoming common practice among blood service organisations. Driven by self-orientated motives rather than pure philanthropic intentions, research is showing that people increasingly want something in return for their support. It is contended that individuals donate conspicuously with the hope it will improve their social standing. Yet there is limited evidence for the effectiveness of conspicuous recognition strategies, and no studies, to the researcher’s knowledge, that have examined conspicuous donation strategies in an online social media context. There is a need to understand what value drives individuals to donate blood, and whether conspicuous donation strategies are a source of such value post blood donation. The purpose of this paper is to conceptualise how conspicuous donation strategies, in the form of virtual badges on social media sites, can be applied to the social behaviour of blood donation, as a value-adding tool, to encourage repeat behaviour.

Self-Regulated Learning : key strategies and their sources in a sample of adolescent males

This study identified the key self-regulated learning (SRL) strategies and their sources for nine school-aged adolescent males aged 15 to 17 years. The Self-Regulated Learning Interview Schedule (SRLIS) was used along with semi-structured interviews with the participants and their parents to elicit information on SRL strategies and contexts for the formation of self-regulatory habits. Early habit-forming experiences of the family home in relation to homework and study routines were found to form an important base for effective SRL. Teachers were identified as the most common source of SRL strategies with important formative experiences occurring during the first two years of high school.

Monitoring policy and actions on food environments : rationale and outline of the INFORMAS policy engagement and communication strategies

The International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS) proposes to collect performance indicators on food policies, actions and environments related to obesity and non-communicable diseases. This paper reviews existing communications strategies used for performance indicators and proposes the approach to be taken for INFORMAS. Twenty-seven scoring and rating tools were identified in various fields of public health including alcohol, tobacco, physical activity, infant feeding and food environments. These were compared based on the types of indicators used and how they were quantified, scoring methods, presentation and the communication and reporting strategies used. There are several implications of these analyses for INFORMAS: the ratings/benchmarking approach is very commonly used, presumably because it is an effective way to communicate progress and stimulate action, although this has not been formally evaluated; the tools used must be trustworthy, pragmatic and policy-relevant; multiple channels of communication will be needed; communications need to be tailored and targeted to decision-makers; data and methods should be freely accessible. The proposed communications strategy for INFORMAS has been built around these lessons to ensure that INFORMAS's outputs have the greatest chance of being used to improve food environments.

Educating for digital futures : what the learning strategies of digital content professionals can teach higher education

Beginning in the second half of the 20th century, ICTs transformed many societies from industrial societies in which manufacturing was the central focus, into knowledge societies in which dealing effectively with data and information has become a central element of work (Anderson, 2008). To meet the needs of the knowledge society, universities must reinvent their structures and processes, their curricula and pedagogic practices. In addition to this, of course higher education is itself subject to the sweeping influence of ICTs. But what might effective higher education look like in the 21st century? In designing higher education systems and learning experiences which are responsive to the learning needs of the future and exploit the possibilities offered by ICTs, we can learn much from the existing professional development strategies of people who are already successful in 21st century fields, such as digital media. In this study, I ask: (1) what are the learning challenges faced by digital media professionals in the 21st century? (2) what are the various roles of formal and informal education in their professional learning strategies at present? (3) how do they prefer to acquire needed capabilities? In-depth interviews were undertaken with successful Australian digital media professionals working in micro businesses and SMEs to answer these questions. The strongest thematic grouping that emerged from the interviews related to the need for continual learning and relearning because of the sheer rate of change in the digital media industries. Four dialectical relationships became apparent from the interviewees’ commentaries around the learning imperatives arising out of the immense and continual changes occurring in the digital content industries: (1) currency vs best practice (2) diversification vs specialisation of products and services (3) creative outputs vs commercial outcomes (4) more learning opportunities vs less opportunity to learn. These findings point to the importance of ‘learning how to learn’ as a 21st century capability. The interviewees were ambivalent about university courses as preparation for professional life in their fields. Higher education was described by several interviewees as having relatively little value-add beyond what one described as “really expensive credentialling services.” For all interviewees in this study, informal learning strategies were the preferred methods of acquiring the majority of knowledge and skills, both for ongoing and initial professional development. Informal learning has no ‘curriculum’ per se, and tends to be opportunistic, unstructured, pedagogically agile and far more self-directed than formal learning (Eraut, 2004). In an industry impacted by constant change, informal learning is clearly both essential and ubiquitous. Inspired by the professional development strategies of the digital media professionals in this study, I propose a 21st century model of the university as a broad, open learning ecology, which also includes industry, professionals, users, and university researchers. If created and managed appropriately, the university learning network becomes the conduit and knowledge integrator for the latest research and industry trends, which students and professionals alike can access as needed.

Percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stents or coronary artery bypass surgery in subjects with type 2 diabetes : evaluation of: Farkouth ME, Domanski M, Sleeper LA, et al. Strategies for multivessel revascularization in patients with diabetes. N Engl J Med 2012;367(25):2375-84, and Contini GA, Nicolini F, Fortuna D, et al. Five-year outcomes of surgical or percutaneous myocardial revascularization in diabetic patients. Int J Cardiol 2012. [Epub ahead of print]

There is debate as to whether percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents or coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) is the best procedure for subjects with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease requiring revascularization. There is some evidence that following these procedures there is less further revascularization with CABG than PCI in subjects with diabetes. Two recent studies; the FREEDOM (Future Revascularization Evaluation in patients with Diabetes mellitus: Optimal Management of Multivessel Disease) trial, and a trial using a real world diabetic population from a Registry, have shown that the benefits of CABG over PCI in subjects with type 2 diabetes extends to lower rates of death and myocardial infarct, in addition to lower rates of revascularization. However, the rates of stroke may be higher with CABG than PCI with drug-eluting stents in this population. Thus, if CABG is going to be preferred to PCI in subjects with type 2 diabetes and multivessel coronary disease, consideration should be given to how to reduce the rates of stroke with CABG.

Knowledge Management Strategies in Technopreneurial Firms

Intellectual capital is increasingly viewed as the single most important asset of organisations. While most large organisations have resources, staff and plans in place to support and develop intellectual capital, many smaller organisations do not. In particular technology-oriented young firms (technopreneurial firms), which play an important role in innovation and commercialisation of new ideas, do not have well developed strategies for managing their intellectual capital. These firms are often founded by engineers, scientists or academics who posses great scientific/technological knowledge, but limited know-how in other aspects of managing a business including knowledge management (KM). Successful managing and integrating their specialised knowledge is of particular importance when it comes to developing a new product or process. This article therefore focuses on developing strategies for knowledge management within technopreneurial organisations as they incorporate technology and strive to build and retain a productive and creative workforce.

A time-based quantitative approach for selecting lean strategies for manufacturing organisations

Lean strategies have been developed to eliminate or reduce waste and thus improve operational efficiency in a manufacturing environment. However, in practice, manufacturers encounter difficulties to select appropriate lean strategies within their resource constraints and to quantitatively evaluate the perceived value of manufacturing waste reduction. This paper presents a methodology developed to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of lean strategies selected to reduce manufacturing wastes within the manufacturers’ resource (time) constraints. A mathematical model has been developed for evaluating the perceived value of lean strategies to manufacturing waste reduction and a step-by-step methodology is provided for selecting appropriate lean strategies to improve the manufacturing performance within their resource constraints. A computer program is developed in MATLAB for finding the optimum solution. With the help of a case study, the proposed methodology and developed model has been validated. A ‘lean strategy-wastes’ correlation matrix has been proposed to establish the relationship between the manufacturing wastes and lean strategies. Using the correlation matrix and applying the proposed methodology and developed mathematical model, authors came out with optimised perceived value of reduction of a manufacturer's wastes by implementing appropriate lean strategies within a manufacturer's resources constraints. Results also demonstrate that the perceived value of reduction of manufacturing wastes can significantly be changed based on policies and product strategy taken by a manufacturer. The proposed methodology can also be used in dynamic situations by changing the input in the programme developed in MATLAB. By identifying appropriate lean strategies for specific manufacturing wastes, a manufacturer can better prioritise implementation efforts and resources to maximise the success of implementing lean strategies in their organisation.

A methodology for effective implementation of lean strategies and its performance evaluation in manufacturing organizations

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop an effective methodology for implementing lean manufacturing strategies and a leanness evaluation metric using continuous performance measurement (CPM). Design/methodology/approach – Based on five lean principles, a systematic lean implementation methodology for manufacturing organizations has been proposed. A simplified leanness evaluation metric consisting of both efficiency and effectiveness attributes of manufacturing performance has been developed for continuous evaluation of lean implementation. A case study to validate the proposed methodology has been conducted and proposed CPM metric has been used to assess the manufacturing leanness. Findings – Proposed methodology is able to systematically identify manufacturing wastes, select appropriate lean tools, identify relevant performance indicators, achieve significant performance improvement and establish lean culture in the organization. Continuous performance measurement matrices in terms of efficiency and effectiveness are proved to be appropriate methods for continuous evaluation of lean performance. Research limitations/implications – Effectiveness of the method developed has been demonstrated by applying it in a real life assembly process. However, more tests/applications will be necessary to generalize the findings. Practical implications – Results show that applying the methods developed, managers can successfully identify and remove manufacturing wastes from their production processes. By improving process efficiency, they can optimize their resource allocations. Manufacturers now have a validated step by step methodology for successfully implementing lean strategies. Originality/value – According to the authors’ best knowledge, this is the first known study that proposed a systematic lean implementation methodology based on lean principles and continuous improvement techniques. Evaluation of performance improvement by lean strategies is a critical issue. This study develops a simplified leanness evaluation metric considering both efficiency and effectiveness attributes and integrates it with the lean implementation methodology.

Strategies for developing and delivering a parental physical activity intervention : answers to the what and how

Background Parents are at risk for physical inactivity; however, few studies have designed physical activity (PA) interventions specifically applied to individuals with young children. To ensure the effectiveness of interventions, it may be useful to first elicit the needs from the target population and incorporate salient strategies identified to the design and delivery of a resultant intervention. We aimed to explore strategies for what to include in and how to best deliver a program designed to increase parental PA. Methods Twelve parents (6 mothers, 6 fathers) of children younger than 5 years participated in focus group discussions exploring strategies for an intervention program designed to increase parental PA. Results A range of themes such as Focus on the Children and Flexible Life/Family Plans imbedded in strategies such as persuasion and information, problem-solving, skill building, and environmental approaches were identified. In addition, a range of strategies for how to best deliver a parental PA intervention evidenced in emerging themes such as Diverse and Brief and Individualized Approach was discussed. Conclusions Future research should continue to adopt a ground up, community-based approach to the development and implementation of interventions for this at-risk group to ensure sustained involvement in regular PA.

2010–2011 Queensland floods : using Haddon's Matrix to define and categorise public safety strategies

Objective The 2010–2011 Queensland floods resulted in the most deaths from a single flood event in Australia since 1916. This article analyses the information on these deaths for comparison with those from previous floods in modern Australia in an attempt to identify factors that have contributed to those deaths. Haddon's Matrix, originally designed for prevention of road trauma, offers a framework for understanding the interplay between contributing factors and helps facilitate a clearer understanding of the varied strategies required to ensure people's safety for particular flood types. Methods Public reports and flood relevant literature were searched using key words ‘flood’, ‘fatality’, ‘mortality’, ‘death’, ‘injury’ and ‘victim’ through Google Scholar, PubMed, ProQuest and EBSCO. Data relating to reported deaths during the 2010–2011 Queensland floods, and relevant data of previous Australian flood fatality (1997–2009) were collected from these available sources. These sources were also used to identify contributing factors. Results There were 33 deaths directly attributed to the event, of which 54.5% were swept away in a flash flood on 10 January 2011. A further 15.1% of fatalities were caused by inappropriate behaviours. This is different to floods in modern Australia where over 90% of deaths are related to the choices made by individuals. There is no single reason why people drown in floods, but rather a complex interplay of factors. Conclusions The present study and its integration of research findings and conceptual frameworks might assist governments and communities to develop policies and strategies to prevent flood injury and fatalities.

Help-seeking strategies of victim/survivors of human trafficking involving partner migration

Victim/survivors of human trafficking involving partner migration employ diverse help-seeking strategies, both formal and informal, to exit their exploitative situations. Drawing on primary research conducted by Lyneham and Richards (forthcoming), the authors highlight the importance of educating the community and professionals from a wide range of sectors—including health, mental health, child protection, social welfare, social work, domestic violence, migration, legal and law enforcement services—about human trafficking and the help-seeking strategies of victims/survivors in order to support them to leave exploitative situations. Enhancing Australia’s knowledge of victim/survivors’ help-seeking strategies will better inform government and community responses to this crime, improve detection and identification of human trafficking matters and subsequent referral to appropriate victim services.

Strategies and solutions for housing sustainability : building information files and performance certificates

The overall aim of this research project was to provide a broader range of value propositions (beyond upfront traditional construction costs) that could transform both the demand side and supply side of the housing industry. The project involved gathering information about how building information is created, used and communicated and classifying building information, leading to the formation of an Information Flow Chart and Stakeholder Relationship Map. These were then tested via broad housing industry focus groups and surveys. The project revealed four key relationships that appear to operate in isolation to the whole housing sector and may have significant impact on the sustainability outcomes and life cycle costs of dwellings over their life cycle. It also found that although a lot of information about individual dwellings does already exist, this information is not coordinated or inventoried in any systematic manner and that national building information files of building passports would present value to a wide range of stakeholders.