Simple rules to contain an invasive species with a complex life cycle and high dispersal capacity

Designing practical rules for controlling invasive species is a challenging task for managers, particularly when species are long-lived, have complex life cycles and high dispersal capacities. Previous findings derived from plant matrix population analyses suggest that effective control of long-lived invaders may be achieved by focusing on killing adult plants. However, the cost-effectiveness of managing different life stages has not been evaluated. We illustrate the benefits of integrating matrix population models with decision theory to undertake this evaluation, using empirical data from the largest infestation of mesquite (Leguminosae: Prosopis spp) within Australia. We include in our model the mesquite life cycle, different dispersal rates and control actions that target individuals at different life stages with varying costs, depending on the intensity of control effort. We then use stochastic dynamic programming to derive cost-effective control strategies that minimize the cost of controlling the core infestation locally below a density threshold and the future cost of control arising from infestation of adjacent areas via seed dispersal. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that four robust management rules guide the allocation of resources between mesquite life stages for this infestation: (i) When there is no seed dispersal, no action is required until density of adults exceeds the control threshold and then only control of adults is needed; (ii) when there is seed dispersal, control strategy is dependent on knowledge of the density of adults and large juveniles (LJ) and broad categories of dispersal rates only; (iii) if density of adults is higher than density of LJ, controlling adults is most cost-effective; (iv) alternatively, if density of LJ is equal or higher than density of adults, management efforts should be spread between adults, large and to a lesser extent small juveniles, but never saplings. Synthesis and applications.In this study, we show that simple rules can be found for managing invasive plants with complex life cycles and high dispersal rates when population models are combined with decision theory. In the case of our mesquite population, focussing effort on controlling adults is not always the most cost-effective way to meet our management objective.

System identification, estimation and control for a cost effective open-source quadcopter

This paper describes system identification, estimation and control of translational motion and heading angle for a cost effective open-source quadcopter — the MikroKopter. The dynamics of its built-in sensors, roll and pitch attitude controller, and system latencies are determined and used to design a computationally inexpensive multi-rate velocity estimator that fuses data from the built-in inertial sensors and a low-rate onboard laser range finder. Control is performed using a nested loop structure that is also computationally inexpensive and incorporates different sensors. Experimental results for the estimator and closed-loop positioning are presented and compared with ground truth from a motion capture system.

Modelling passenger flow at airport terminals : individual agent decision model for stochastic passenger behaviour

Airport system is complex. Passenger dynamics within it appear to be complicate as well. Passenger behaviours outside standard processes are regarded more significant in terms of public hazard and service rate issues. In this paper, we devised an individual agent decision model to simulate stochastic passenger behaviour in airport departure terminal. Bayesian networks are implemented into the decision making model to infer the probabilities that passengers choose to use any in-airport facilities. We aim to understand dynamics of the discretionary activities of passengers.

Communications materials on methods of development of revenue and cost estimates to non-technical audiences

This CDROM includes PDFs of presentations on the following topics: "TXDOT Revenue and Expenditure Trends;" "Examine Highway Fund Diversions, & Benchmark Texas Vehicle Registration Fees;" "Evaluation of the JACK Model;" "Future highway construction cost trends;" "Fuel Efficiency Trends and Revenue Impact"

Innovative damage assessment of steel truss bridges using modal strain energy correlation

As a part of vital infrastructure and transportation network, bridge structures must function safely at all times. Bridges are designed to have a long life span. At any point in time, however, some bridges are aged. The ageing of bridge structures, given the rapidly growing demand of heavy and fast inter-city passages and continuous increase of freight transportation, would require diligence on bridge owners to ensure that the infrastructure is healthy at reasonable cost. In recent decades, a new technique, structural health monitoring (SHM), has emerged to meet this challenge. In this new engineering discipline, structural modal identification and damage detection have formed a vital component. Witnessed by an increasing number of publications is that the change in vibration characteristics is widely and deeply investigated to assess structural damage. Although a number of publications have addressed the feasibility of various methods through experimental verifications, few of them have focused on steel truss bridges. Finding a feasible vibration-based damage indicator for steel truss bridges and solving the difficulties in practical modal identification to support damage detection motivated this research project. This research was to derive an innovative method to assess structural damage in steel truss bridges. First, it proposed a new damage indicator that relies on optimising the correlation between theoretical and measured modal strain energy. The optimisation is powered by a newly proposed multilayer genetic algorithm. In addition, a selection criterion for damage-sensitive modes has been studied to achieve more efficient and accurate damage detection results. Second, in order to support the proposed damage indicator, the research studied the applications of two state-of-the-art modal identification techniques by considering some practical difficulties: the limited instrumentation, the influence of environmental noise, the difficulties in finite element model updating, and the data selection problem in the output-only modal identification methods. The numerical (by a planer truss model) and experimental (by a laboratory through truss bridge) verifications have proved the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed damage detection scheme. The modal strain energy-based indicator was found to be sensitive to the damage in steel truss bridges with incomplete measurement. It has shown the damage indicator's potential in practical applications of steel truss bridges. Lastly, the achievement and limitation of this study, and lessons learnt from the modal analysis have been summarised.

Adaptive subcarrier allocation in multiuser OFDM system using forced cost based decisions

Subcarrier allocation scheme for Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing(OFDM) based multiuser system is proposed. Most previous algorithms use greedy approach as a subcarrier allocation scheme until a conflict occurs or as an initial first round allocation with improvement steps carried out in next rounds. Our algorithm uses information obtained by the forced costs of a system that incur by a current allocation to make assignment decisions. This algorithm does not rely on greedy approach and therefore can also be considered as a substitute for first layer Greedy algorithms. Simulation results show that for two user case this algorithm gives better or equal allocation 80-90 percent of the time when compared with the greedy allocation.

Stable strong order 1.0 schemes for solving stochastic ordinary differential equations

The Balanced method was introduced as a class of quasi-implicit methods, based upon the Euler-Maruyama scheme, for solving stiff stochastic differential equations. We extend the Balanced method to introduce a class of stable strong order 1. 0 numerical schemes for solving stochastic ordinary differential equations. We derive convergence results for this class of numerical schemes. We illustrate the asymptotic stability of this class of schemes is illustrated and is compared with contemporary schemes of strong order 1. 0. We present some evidence on parametric selection with respect to minimising the error convergence terms. Furthermore we provide a convergence result for general Balanced style schemes of higher orders.

The health and cost implications of high body mass index in Australian Defence Force personnel.

BACKGROUND: Frequent illness and injury among workers with high body mass index (BMI) can raise the costs of employee healthcare and reduce workforce maintenance and productivity. These issues are particularly important in vocational settings such as the military, which require good physical health, regular attendance and teamwork to operate efficiently. The purpose of this study was to compare the incidence of injury and illness, absenteeism, productivity, healthcare usage and administrative outcomes among Australian Defence Force personnel with varying BMI. METHODS: Personnel were grouped into cohorts according to the following ranges for (BMI): normal (18.5-24.9 kg/m²; n = 197), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m²; n = 154) and obese (≥30 kg/m²) with restricted body fat (≤28 % for females, ≤24 % for males) (n = 148) and with no restriction on body fat (n = 180). Medical records for each individual were audited retrospectively to record the incidence of injury and illness, absenteeism, productivity, healthcare usage (i.e., consultation with medical specialists, hospital stays, medical investigations, prescriptions) and administrative outcomes (e.g., discharge from service) over one year. These data were then grouped and compared between the cohorts. RESULTS: The prevalence of injury and illness, cost of medical specialist consultations and cost of medical scans were all higher (p <0.05) in both obese cohorts compared with the normal cohort. The estimated productivity losses from restricted work days were also higher (p <0.05) in the obese cohort with no restriction on body fat compared with the normal cohort. Within the obese cohort, the prevalence of injury and illness, healthcare usage and productivity were not significantly greater in the obese cohort with no restriction on body fat compared with the cohort with restricted body fat. The number of restricted work days, the rate of re-classification of Medical Employment Classification and the rate of discharge from service were similar between all four cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: High BMI in the military increases healthcare usage, but does not disrupt workforce maintenance. The greater prevalence of injury and illness, greater healthcare usage and lower productivity in obese Australian Defence Force personnel is not related to higher levels of body fat.

Low cost railway level crossings

The Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Rail Innovation is conducting a tranche of industry-led research projects looking into safer rail level crossings. This paper will provide an overview of the Affordable Level Crossings project, a project that is performing research in both engineering and human factors aspects of low-cost level crossing warning devices (LCLCWDs), and is facilitating a comparative trial of these devices over a period of 12 months in several jurisdictions. Low-cost level crossing warning devices (LCLCWDs) are characterised by the use of alternative technologies for high cost components including train detection and connectivity (e.g. radar, acoustic, magnetic induction train detection systems and wireless connectivity replacing traditional track circuits and wiring). These devices often make use of solar power where mains power is not available, and aim to make substantial savings in lifecycle costs. The project involves trialling low-cost level crossing warning devices in shadow-mode, where devices are installed without the road-user interface at a number of existing level crossing sites that are already equipped with conventional active warning systems. It may be possible that the deployment of lower-cost devices can provide a significantly larger safety benefit over the network than a deployment of expensive conventional devices, as the lower cost would allow more passive level crossing sites to be upgraded with the same capital investment. The project will investigate reliability and safety integrity issues of the low-cost devices, as well as evaluate lifecycle costs and investigate human factors issues related to warning reliability. This paper will focus on the requirements and safety issues of LCLCWDs, and will provide an overview of the Rail CRC projects.

A framework for life cycle cost estimation of a product family at the early stage of product development

A cost estimation method is required to estimate the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development in order to evaluate the product family design. There are difficulties with existing cost estimation techniques in estimating the life cycle cost for a product family at the early stage of product development. This paper proposes a framework that combines a knowledge based system and an activity based costing techniques in estimating the life cycle cost of a product family at the early stage of product development. The inputs of the framework are the product family structure and its sub function. The output of the framework is the life cycle cost of a product family that consists of all costs at each product family level and the costs of each product life cycle stage. The proposed framework provides a life cycle cost estimation tool for a product family at the early stage of product development using high level information as its input. The framework makes it possible to estimate the life cycle cost of various product family that use any types of product structure. It provides detailed information related to the activity and resource costs of both parts and products that can assist the designer in analyzing the cost of the product family design. In addition, it can reduce the required amount of information and time to construct the cost estimation system.

A framework for cost-aware process management : generation of accurate and timely management accounting cost reports

Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency improvements for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables reporting of detailed cost of operations for decision making purpose, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Business process management is concerned with systematically documenting, managing, automating, and optimising processes. Process mining gives valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded by an IT system in the form of an event log with the focus on efficient utilisation of time and resources, although its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, we propose a framework to support management accounting decisions on cost control by automatically incorporating cost data with historical data from event logs for monitoring, predicting and reporting process-related costs. We also illustrate how accurate, relevant and timely management accounting style cost reports can be produced on demand by extending open-source process mining framework ProM.

Resource allocation in multiuser cooperative OFDM system using forced cost based decisions

A sub optimal resource allocation algorithm for Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) based cooperative scheme is proposed. The system consists of multiple relays. Subcarrier space is divided into blocks and relays participating in cooperation are allocated specific blocks to be used with a user. To ensure unique subcarrier assignment system is constrained such that same block cannot be used by more than one user. Users are given fair block assignments while no restriction for maximum number of blocks a relay can employ is given. Forced cost based decisions [1] are used for block allocation. Simulation results show that this scheme outperforms a non cooperating scheme with sequential allocation with respect to power usage.

Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce the risk of surgical site infections following primary total hip arthroplasty

Background Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is a commonly performed procedure and numbers are increasing with ageing populations. One of the most serious complications in THA are surgical site infections (SSIs), caused by pathogens entering the wound during the procedure. SSIs are associated with a substantial burden for health services, increased mortality and reduced functional outcomes in patients. Numerous approaches to preventing these infections exist but there is no gold standard in practice and the cost-effectiveness of alternate strategies is largely unknown. Objectives The aim of this project was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of strategies claiming to reduce deep surgical site infections following total hip arthroplasty in Australia. The objectives were: 1. Identification of competing strategies or combinations of strategies that are clinically relevant to the control of SSI related to hip arthroplasty 2. Evidence synthesis and pooling of results to assess the volume and quality of evidence claiming to reduce the risk of SSI following total hip arthroplasty 3. Construction of an economic decision model incorporating cost and health outcomes for each of the identified strategies 4. Quantification of the effect of uncertainty in the model 5. Assessment of the value of perfect information among model parameters to inform future data collection Methods The literature relating to SSI in THA was reviewed, in particular to establish definitions of these concepts, understand mechanisms of aetiology and microbiology, risk factors, diagnosis and consequences as well as to give an overview of existing infection prevention measures. Published economic evaluations on this topic were also reviewed and limitations for Australian decision-makers identified. A Markov state-transition model was developed for the Australian context and subsequently validated by clinicians. The model was designed to capture key events related to deep SSI occurring within the first 12 months following primary THA. Relevant infection prevention measures were selected by reviewing clinical guideline recommendations combined with expert elicitation. Strategies selected for evaluation were the routine use of pre-operative antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) versus no use of antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or in combination with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) or laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR). The best available evidence for clinical effect size and utility parameters was harvested from the medical literature using reproducible methods. Queensland hospital data were extracted to inform patients’ transitions between model health states and related costs captured in assigned treatment codes. Costs related to infection prevention were derived from reliable hospital records and expert opinion. Uncertainty of model input parameters was explored in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses and the value of perfect information was estimated. Results The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a health services perspective using a hypothetical cohort of 30,000 THA patients aged 65 years. The baseline rate of deep SSI was 0.96% within one year of a primary THA. The routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) was highly cost-effective and resulted in cost savings of over $1.6m whilst generating an extra 163 QALYs (without consideration of uncertainty). Deterministic and probabilistic analysis (considering uncertainty) identified antibiotic prophylaxis combined with antibiotic-impregnated cement (AP & ABC) to be the most cost-effective strategy. Using AP & ABC generated the highest net monetary benefit (NMB) and an incremental $3.1m NMB compared to only using antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a very low error probability that this strategy might not have the largest NMB (<5%). Not using antibiotic prophylaxis (No AP) or using both antibiotic prophylaxis combined with laminar air operating rooms (AP & LOR) resulted in worse health outcomes and higher costs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the model was sensitive to the initial cohort starting age and the additional costs of ABC but the best strategy did not change, even for extreme values. The cost-effectiveness improved for a higher proportion of cemented primary THAs and higher baseline rates of deep SSI. The value of perfect information indicated that no additional research is required to support the model conclusions. Conclusions Preventing deep SSI with antibiotic prophylaxis and antibiotic-impregnated cement has shown to improve health outcomes among hospitalised patients, save lives and enhance resource allocation. By implementing a more beneficial infection control strategy, scarce health care resources can be used more efficiently to the benefit of all members of society. The results of this project provide Australian policy makers with key information about how to efficiently manage risks of infection in THA.