UN Security Council decision-making: testing the bribery hypothesis

Liberal-Institutionalism and Structural Realism expectations about international organizations are confronted by looking at if and how US-controlled international aid is granted, and particularly if it is related or not to political affinity and to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) non-permanent membership. A preliminary assessment suggests that these relations only hold for the period of the Cold War, and, even then, only when UNSC non-permanent membership is in years in which the Security Council was deemed very important.

Intraocular pressure measurement in sheep using an applanation tonometer

The purpose of this study was to evaluate and establish the mean values of IOP in healthy adult sheep using an applanation tonometer. Information on age, sex, and breed was obtained for all animals included in this study. Twenty five healthy sheep (Ovis aries), of the same breed (Texel), male or female, with three years of age, received an ophthalmic examination in both eyes, including pupillary reflexes, Schirmer tear test, slit lamp biomicroscopy, and fluorescein staining. For all ophthalmic testing, animals were gently physically restrained, with no pressure in the jugular area and the eyelids were carefully open. IOP was measured by applanation tonometry (Tonopen XL). The same examiner performed the tonometry; measurements were taken three times for each eye, and their average was recorded as the IOP of the animal. Statistical analysis was performed using paired t-test and values of P < 0.05 were considered significant. The mean intraocular pressure in the whole group of 50 eyes was of 16.36 +/- 2.19 mm Hg. The mean (SD) IOP in the right eye was of 15.96 +/- 2.02 mm Hg, while the mean (SD) IOP in the left eye was of 16.76 +/- 2.32 mm Hg. Significant differences in IOP were not found between right and left eyes. The applanation tonometer was adequate for measuring the intraocular pressure in sheep. Reference data will assist in diagnosing testing for ophthalmic disease in sheep, as¹ well as promote further studies in this area.

A Generic Library for GUI Reasoning and Testing

Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) make software easy to use by providing the user with visual controls. Therefore, correctness of GUI's code is essential to the correct execution of the overall software. Models can help in the evaluation of interactive applications by allowing designers to concentrate on its more important aspects. This paper presents a generic model for language-independent reverse engineering of graphical user interface based applications, and we explore the integration of model-based testing techniques in our approach, thus allowing us to perform fault detection. A prototype tool has been constructed, which is already capable of deriving and testing a user interface behavioral model of applications written in Java/Swing.

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

A System Dynamics-Based Simulation Experiment for Testing Mental Model and Performance Effects of Using the Balanced Scorecard

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

Statistical classification of road pavements using near field vehicle rolling noise measurements

Low noise surfaces have been increasingly considered as a viable and cost-effective alternative to acoustical barriers. However, road planners and administrators frequently lack information on the correlation between the type of road surface and the resulting noise emission profile. To address this problem, a method to identify and classify different types of road pavements was developed, whereby near field road noise is analyzed using statistical learning methods. The vehicle rolling sound signal near the tires and close to the road surface was acquired by two microphones in a special arrangement which implements the Close-Proximity method. A set of features, characterizing the properties of the road pavement, was extracted from the corresponding sound profiles. A feature selection method was used to automatically select those that are most relevant in predicting the type of pavement, while reducing the computational cost. A set of different types of road pavement segments were tested and the performance of the classifier was evaluated. Results of pavement classification performed during a road journey are presented on a map, together with geographical data. This procedure leads to a considerable improvement in the quality of road pavement noise data, thereby increasing the accuracy of road traffic noise prediction models.

Statistical motion learning for improved transform domain Wyner-Ziv video coding

Wyner - Ziv (WZ) video coding is a particular case of distributed video coding (DVC), the recent video coding paradigm based on the Slepian - Wolf and Wyner - Ziv theorems which exploits the source temporal correlation at the decoder and not at the encoder as in predictive video coding. Although some progress has been made in the last years, WZ video coding is still far from the compression performance of predictive video coding, especially for high and complex motion contents. The WZ video codec adopted in this study is based on a transform domain WZ video coding architecture with feedback channel-driven rate control, whose modules have been improved with some recent coding tools. This study proposes a novel motion learning approach to successively improve the rate-distortion (RD) performance of the WZ video codec as the decoding proceeds, making use of the already decoded transform bands to improve the decoding process for the remaining transform bands. The results obtained reveal gains up to 2.3 dB in the RD curves against the performance for the same codec without the proposed motion learning approach for high motion sequences and long group of pictures (GOP) sizes.

Tools for testing the Solvency Capital Requirement for life insurance

Longevity risk is one of the major risks that an insurance company or a pension fund has to deal with and it is expected that its importance will grow in the near future. In agreement with these considerations, in Solvency II regulation the Standard formula furnished for calculating the Solvency Capital Requirement explicitly considers this kind of risk. According to the new European rules in our paper we suggest a multiperiod approach to evaluate the SCR for longevity risk. We propose a backtesting framework for measuring the consistency of SCR calculations for life insurance policies.

Avaliação da influência dos parâmetros de ensaio no índice de fluidez de termoplásticos

O presente trabalho teve como objectivos avaliar a influência de diversas grandezas e parâmetros de ensaio no índice de fluidez de termoplásticos e calcular a incerteza associada às determinações. Numa primeira fase, procedeu-se à identificação dos principais parâmetros que influenciam a determinação do índice de fluidez, tendo sido seleccionados a temperatura do plastómetro, o peso de carga, o diâmetro da fieira, o comprimento da medição, o tipo de corte e o número de provetes. Para avaliar a influência destes parâmetros na medição do índice de fluidez, optou-se pela realização de um planeamento de experiências, o qual foi dividido em três etapas. Para o tratamento dos resultados obtidos utilizou-se como ferramenta a análise de variância. Após a completa análise dos desenhos factoriais, verificou-se que os efeitos dos factores temperatura do plastómetro, peso de carga e diâmetro da fieira apresentam um importante significado estatístico na medição do índice de fluidez. Na segunda fase, procedeu-se ao cálculo da incerteza associada às medições. Para tal seleccionou-se um dos métodos mais usuais, referido no Guia para a Expressão da Incerteza da Medição, conhecido como método GUM, e pela utilização da abordagem “passo a passo”. Inicialmente, foi necessária a construção de um modelo matemático para a medição do índice de fluidez que relacionasse os diferentes parâmetros utilizados. Foi estudado o comportamento de cada um dos parâmetros através da utilização de duas funções, recorrendo-se novamente à análise de variância. Através da lei de propagação das incertezas foi possível determinar a incerteza padrão combinada,e após estimativa do número de graus de liberdade, foi possível determinar o valor do coeficiente de expansão. Finalmente determinou-se a incerteza expandida da medição, relativa à determinação do índice de fluidez em volume.

Voluntary HIV counseling and testing during prenatal care in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Voluntary HIV counseling and testing are provided to all Brazilian pregnant women with the purpose of reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission. The purpose of the study was to assess characteristics of HIV testing and identify factors associated with HIV counseling and testing. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out comprising 1,658 mothers living in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Biological, reproductive and social variables were obtained from mothers by means of a standardized questionnaire. Being counseling about HIV testing was the dependent variable. Confidence intervals, chi-square test and hierarchical logistic model were used to determine the association between counseling and maternal variables. RESULTS: Of 1,658 mothers interviewed, 1,603 or 96.7% (95% CI: 95.7-97.5) underwent HIV testing, and 51 or 3.1% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0) were not tested. Four (0.2%) refused to undergo testing after counseling. Of 51 women not tested in this study, 30 had undergone the testing previously. Of 1,603 women tested, 630 or 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9-41.7) received counseling, 947 or 59.2% (95% CI: 56.6-61.5) did not, and 26 (1.6%) did not inform. Low income, lack of prenatal care, late beginning of prenatal care, use of rapid testing, and receiving prenatal in the public sector were variables independently associated with a lower probability of getting counseling about HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed the high rate of prenatal HIV testing in Porto Alegre. However, women coming from less privileged social groups were less likely to receive information and benefit from counseling.

Barriers for HIV testing during pregnancy in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess HIV testing rate and determine risk factors for not have been tested during pregnancy. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil, from December 2000 to February 2001. Socioeconomic, maternal and healthcare variables were obtained by means of a standardized questionnaire. Crude and adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were obtained in logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total of 1,642 mothers were interviewed. Of them, 94.3% reported being offered HIV testing before or during pregnancy or during labor; 89 mothers (5.4%) were not tested or did not know if they were tested. Attending fewer than six prenatal visits, being single and younger than 18 years old were relevant barriers preventing HIV testing. There was found a relationship between maternal schooling and the category of prenatal care provider. Having low 22.20 (12.43-39.67) or high 3.38 (1.86-7.68). schooling and being cared in the private sector strongly reduced the likelihood of being HIV tested. CONCLUSIONS: The Brazilian Health Ministry's recommendation for universal counseling and HIV testing has been successfully implemented in the public sector. In order to improve HIV testing coverage, new strategies need to target women cared in the private sector especially those of low schooling.

Aplicação web para tratamento estatístico de dados de teste

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Determination of the radiochemical purity of 99mTc-Tetrofosmin: comparision between five methods

GOAL: The manufacturing and distribution of strips of instant thin - layer chromatography with silica gel (ITLC - SG) (reference method) is currently discontinued so there is a need for an alternative method f or the determination of radiochemical purity (RCP) of 99m Tc - tetrofosmin. This study aims to compare five alternative methods proposed by the producer to determine the RCP of 99m Tc - tetrofosmin. METHODS: Nineteen vials of tetrofosmin were radiolabelled with 99m Tc and the percentages of the RCP were determined. Five different methods were compared with the standard RCP testing method (ITLC - SG, 2x20 cm): Whatman 3MM (1x10 cm) with acetone and dichloro - methane (method 1); Whatman 3MM (1x1 0 cm) with ethyl acetate (method 2); aluminum oxide - coated plastic thin - layer chromatography (TLC) plate (1x10 cm) and ethanol (method 3); Whatman 3MM (2x20 cm) with acetone and dichloro - methane (method 4); solid - phase extraction method C18 cartridge (meth od 5). RESULTS: The average values of RCP were 95,30% ± 1,28% (method 1), 93,95 ± 0,61% (method 2), 96,85% ± 0,93% (method 3), 92,94% ± 0,99% (method 4) and 96,25% ± 2,57% (method 5) (n=12 each), and 93,15% ± 1,13% for the standard method (n=19). There we re statistical significant differences in the values obtained for methods 1 (P=0,001), 3 (P=0,000) and 5 (P=0,004), and there were no statistical significant differences in the values obtained for methods 2 (P=0,113) and 4 (P=0,327). CONCLUSION: From the results obtained, methods 2 and 4 showed a higher correlation with the standard method. Unlike method 4, method 2 is less time - consuming than the reference method and can overcome the problems associated with the solvent toxicity. The remaining methods (1, 3 and 5) tended to overestimate RCP value compared to the standard method.