Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Relation between incidence of Fusarium graminearum in seeds, emergence and occurrence of giberela in wheat seedlings

In order to verify the behavior of 30 genotypes of wheat in relation to the emergence and incidence of giberela in wheat seedlings from seeds contaminated with F graminearum, experiments were carried out under laboratory and greenhouse conditions. In the laboratory, seeds were analyzed for health using freezer blotter test. In the greenhouse, seeds were sowed in plastic boxes filled with sand treated with methyl bromide. Statistical design was randomized blocks with 30 treatments, four replications of 50 seeds (200 seeds/treatment). Emergence of seedlings and giberela incidence were evaluated at seven, 14 and 21 days after sowing. Symptomatic seedlings were removed and submitted to humid chambers for 24 hours under laboratory conditions. There was no significant difference in the incidence of the pathogen in the emergence of seedlings. There was no correlation between the incidence of F graminearum in the genotypes and incidence of giberela in seedlings, nor between the incidence of giberela in seedlings and the incidence of the pathogen in the seeds.

CORRELATION BETWEEN FLOWERING, FRUCTIFICATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES IN Solanum lycocarpum A. St.-Hil, SOLANACEAE

Solanum lycocarpum (lobeira) is a typical and abundant species of brazilian Cerrado, which occupies mainly surrounding disturbed areas. It has interesting characteristics from the point of view of reproductive biology, that probably are favoring the large occupation of habitats by the species. Based on the fact that the species produces flowers and fruit during all the year, the present study had the purpose to verify the association between flower and fruit production with environmental variables (temperature, relative humidity and precipitation), aiming to support future studies referring to reproductive biology and ecology of plant species from Cerrado biome. A population of S. lycocarpum composed of 34 plants in reproductive phase, situated in Morrinhos, south of the State of Goias, Brazil,, was evaluated. All the plants were geographically referenced with a GPS receptor. Observations were made monthly during 13 months (June, 2005 to July, 2006) quantifying open flowers and fruits produced in the intervals between the observations. It was possible suggest high conversion of flowers in fruits. The Spearman rank correlation showed positive correlation of flower number with precipitation and relative humidity. Fruit number was not correlated with the environmental variables.

Contribution of soil organic carbon to the ion exchange capacity of tropical soils

Highly weathered soils represent about 3 billion ha of the tropical region. Oxisols represent about 60% of the Brazilian territory (more than 5 million km 2), in areas of great agricultural importance. Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be responsible for more than 80% of the cation exchange capacity (CEC) of highly weathered soils, such as Oxisols and Ultisols. The objective of this study was to estimate the contribution of the SOC to the CEC of Brazilian soils from different orders. Surface samples (0.0 to 0.2 m) of 30 uncultivated soils (13 Oxisols, 6 Ultisols, 5 Alfisols, 3 Entisols, I Histosol, 1 Inceptisol. and I Molisol), under native forests and from reforestation sites from Sao Paulo State, Brazil, were collected in order to obtain a large variation of (electro)chemical, physical, and mineralogical soil attributes. Total content of SOC was quantified by titulometric and colorimetric methods. Effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) was obtained by two methods: the indirect method-summation-estimated the ECECi from the sum of basic cations (Ca+ Mg+ K+ Na) and exchangeable Al; and the direct ECECd obtained by the compulsive exchange method, using unbuffered BaCl2 solution. The contribution of SOC to the soil CEC was estimated by the Bennema statistical method. The amount of SOC var ied from 6.6 g kg(-1) to 213.4 g kg(-1). while clay contents varied from 40 g kg(-1) to 716 g kg(-1). Soil organic carbon contents were strongly associated to the clay contents, suggesting that clay content was the primary variable in controling the variability of SOC contents in the samples. Cation exchange capacity varied from 7.0 mmol(c) kg(-1) to 137.8 mmol(c) kg(-1) and had a positive Correlation with SOC. The mean contribution (per grain) of the SOC (1.64 mmol(c)) for the soil CEC was more than 44 times higher than the contribution of the clay fraction (0.04 mmol(c),). A regression model that considered the SOC content as the only significant variable explained 60% of the variation in the soil total CEC. The importance of SOC was related to soil pedogenetic process, since its contribution to the soil CEC was more evident in Oxisols with predominance of Fe and Al (oxihydr)oxides in the mineral fraction or in Ultisols, that presented illuviated clay. The influence of SOC in the sign and in the magnitude of the net charge of soils reinforce the importance of agricultural management systems that preserve high levels of SOC, in order to improve their sustainability.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Body weight as an indicator of fat-free mass in active elderly women

Objective: Fat-free mass (FFM) reduction and the tendency for a reduction in surrounding fatty issue and increase in the middle are a natural consequence of growing old and should be studied in order to gain a better understanding of the aging process. This study set out to find the FFM differences between active elderly women in two age groups (60-69 and 70-80 years) and to determine which of the anthropometric measurements, body weight (BW), abdominal circumference (AC), or body mass index (BMI) are the best predictors of FFM variation within the group. Methods: Eighty-one (n = 81) active elderly women of the Third Age willingly signed up to participate in the research during the activities at the University of the Third Age (UTA) in Brazil. The research was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medical Sciences of the State University of Campinas (UNICAMP). Body weight (BW), height (H) and the BMI were measured according to the international standards. The AC was measured in centimetres at the H of the navel and body composition was ascertained using bioimpedance analysis. The SAS program was used to perform the statistical analysis of independent samples and parametric data. Results: The results showed FFM values with significant differences between the two groups, with the lowest values occurring among the women who were over 70 years of age. In the analysis, the Pearson`s Correlation Coefficient for each measured independent variable was ascertained, with the BW measurement showing the highest ratio (0.900). Conclusions: The BW measurement was regarded as reliable, low-cost and easy to use for monitoring FFM in elderly women who engage in physical activities. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic variation for anatomic traits and volume shrinkage and their correlation with wood basic density in an Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehn base population

Eucalyptus camaldulensis has great importance in Brazil because of their phenotypic plasticity for different environmental conditions, as soils, altitudes and rainfall. This study is an investigation of a base population of E. camaldulensis from Australia through a progeny test implanted in Selviria, MS. The trial was established in a randomized block design, with 25 families and 60 replications of single tree plots. Genetic parameters for anatomic traits and volume shrinkage were estimated, as well as their correlations with wood basic density. No significant differences among progenies were observed for the traits studied. The additive genetic variation coefficient at individual and among progeny levels ranged from low (0.26%) to high (16.98%). The narrow sense heritability at individual and family means levels also ranged from low (0.01) to high (0.87). This indicates that some traits are under strong genetic control and can be improved by selection. In the present situation, in order to attain the highest genetic gains, the sequential selection among and within progeny would be recommended.

Correlation between sensory and chemical markers in the evaluation of Brazil nut oxidative shelf-life

Sensory analysis is one of the most suitable processes for measuring oxidative damage and determining the shelf-life of nuts, but it is an expensive and time-consuming methodology. Thus, our objective was to correlate sensory data and chemical markers obtained during the accelerated oxidation of Brazil nuts and to determine the chemical parameters values associated with the sensory shelf-life of the nuts as established by the consumers. Brazil nuts were kept at 80 A degrees C for 21 days. At intervals of 2 days, the oxidized odor of the samples was analyzed by nine trained panelists using a discriminative scale, and the oil was extracted to quantify the chemical parameters. A high (r > 0.95) and significant correlation (p < 0.05) was observed between the sensory data and the hydroperoxide concentration (PV), para-anisidine value (pAV), hexanal content, and alpha- and gamma-tocopherol concentrations. When compared with fresh samples, sensory identification of oxidized odor occurred on the 4th day, noticeably earlier than changes in chemical markers (12th day). Consumers rejected the nuts after 12 days of storage, which corresponded to PV = 18.8 meq kg(-1) oil, pAV = 7.68, hexanal = 48.95 mu mol 100 g(-1) oil, alpha-tocopherol = 15.01 mg kg(-1) oil, and gamma + beta-tocopherol = 73.88 mg kg(-1) oil. Our study suggests that simple spectrometric methods, such as PV and pAV, can be used to estimate the oxidative shelf-life of nuts based on sensory analysis.

Correlation between Environmental Factors and Prevalence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Oysters Harvested in the Southern Coastal Area of Sao Paulo State, Brazil

The presence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in 123 oyster samples collected from an estuary on the southern coast of Sao Paulo state, Brazil, was investigated. Of the 123 samples, 99.2% were positive with densities ranging from <3 to 10(5) most probable number (MPN)/g. Densities correlated significantly with water temperature (r = 0.48; P < 0.001) but not with salinity (r = -0.09; P = 0.34). The effect of harvest site on counts was not significant (P > 0.05). These data provide information for the assessment of exposure of V. parahaemolyticus in oysters at harvest.

UV-Derivative Spectrophotometric and Stability-Indicating High-Performance Liquid Chromatographic Methods for Determination of Simvastatin in Tablets

A stability-indicating high-performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) and a second-order derivative spectrophotometric (UVDS) analytical methods were validated and compared for determination of simvastatin in tablets. The HPLC method was performed with isocratic elution using a C18 column and a mobile phase composed of methanol:acetonitrile:water (60:20:20, v/v/v) at a flow rate of 1.0 ml/min. The detection was made at 239 nm. In UVDS method, methanol and water were used in first dilution and distilled water was used in consecutive dilutions and as background. The second-order derivative signal measurement was taken at 255 nm. Analytical curves showed correlation coefficients > 0.999 for both methods. The quantitation limits (QL) were 2.41 mu g/ml for HPLC and 0.45 mu g/ml for UVDS, respectively. Intra and inter-day relative standard deviations were < 2.0 %. Statistical analysis with t- and F-tests are not exceeding their critical values demonstrating that there is no significant difference between the two methods at 95 % confidence level.

Evaluation of flow regimes in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed through statistical, mutual information, spectral and Hurst`s analysis

Hydrodynamic studies were conducted in a semi-cylindrical spouted bed column of diameter 150 mm, height 1000 mm, conical base included angle of 60 degrees and inlet orifice diameter 25 mm. Pressure transducers at several axial positions were used to obtain pressure fluctuation time series with 1.2 and 2.4 mm glass beads at U/U-ms from 0.3 to 1.6, and static bed depths from 150 to 600 mm. The conditions covered several flow regimes (fixed bed, incipient spouting, stable spouting, pulsating spouting, slugging, bubble spouting and fluidization). Images of the system dynamics were also acquired through the transparent walls with a digital camera. The data were analyzed via statistical, mutual information theory, spectral and Hurst`s Rescaled Range methods to assess the potential of these methods to characterize the spouting quality. The results indicate that these methods have potential for monitoring spouted bed operation.

Norwegian long-distance reflexives: Lectal variation and speaker attitudes

10 lectal variables were examined with respect to Norwegian speakers' acceptance of long-distance reflexives (LDR), using a questionnaire to elicit grammaticality judgements on 50 potential LDR sentences. A sample of 180 speakers completed the questionnaire. The data was analysed using a general linear model univariate model, and Spearman's correlation. In this sample the results showed that dialect and level of education had significant effects on speakers' acceptance of long-distance reflexives, while sex, age, being a native speaker, having both native-speaker parents, living in the city or the country, and the speaker's attitudes to the two Norwegian writing languages had no influence on speakers' acceptance of long-distance reflexives. It is suggested that the influence of Danish on Norwegian writing and on the southern dialects may be the cause of the observed variation with respect to LDR in Norwegian.

Correlation of habitual physical activity levels with flow mediated dilation of the brachial artery in 5-10 year old children

Endothelial dysfunction is an early key event of atherogenesis. Both fitness level and exercise intervention have been shown to positively influence endothelial function. In a cross-sectional study of 47 children, the relationship between habitual physical activity and flow-mediated dilation (FMD) of the brachial artery was explored. Habitual physical activity levels (PALs) were assessed using a validated stable isotope technique, and FMD of the brachial artery was measured via high-resolution ultrasound. The results showed that habitual physical activity significantly correlated with FMD (r=0.39, P=0.007), and remained the most influential variable on dilation in multivariate analysis. Although both fitness level and exercise intervention have previously been shown to positively influence FMD, this is the first time that a relationship with normal PALs has been investigated, especially, at such a young age. These data support the concept that physical activity exerts its protective effect on cardiovascular health via the endothelium and add further emphasis to the importance of physical activity in childhood.

Parameter setting and statistical learning

Three main models of parameter setting have been proposed: the Variational model proposed by Yang (2002; 2004), the Structured Acquisition model endorsed by Baker (2001; 2005), and the Very Early Parameter Setting (VEPS) model advanced by Wexler (1998). The VEPS model contends that parameters are set early. The Variational model supposes that children employ statistical learning mechanisms to decide among competing parameter values, so this model anticipates delays in parameter setting when critical input is sparse, and gradual setting of parameters. On the Structured Acquisition model, delays occur because parameters form a hierarchy, with higher-level parameters set before lower-level parameters. Assuming that children freely choose the initial value, children sometimes will miss-set parameters. However when that happens, the input is expected to trigger a precipitous rise in one parameter value and a corresponding decline in the other value. We will point to the kind of child language data that is needed in order to adjudicate among these competing models.

Correlation between carbon isotope discrimination and transpiration efficiency in lines of the C-4 species Sorghum bicolor in the glasshouse and the field

Transpiration efficiency, W, the ratio of plant carbon produced to water transpired and carbon isotope discrimination of leaf dry matter, Delta(d)' were measured together on 30 lines of the C-4 species, Sorghum bicolor in the glasshouse and on eight lines grown in the field. In the glasshouse, the mean W observed was 4.9 mmol C mol(-1) H2O and the range was 0.8 mmol C mol(-1) H2O The mean Delta(d) was 3.0 parts per thousand and the observed range was 0.4 parts per thousand. In the field, the mean W was lower at 2.8 mmol C mol H2O and the mean Delta(d) was 4.6 parts per thousand. Significant positive correlations between W and Delta(d) were observed for plants grown in the glasshouse and in the field. The observed correlations were consistent with theory, opposite to those for C-4 species, and showed that variation in Delta(d) was an integrated measure of long-term variation in the ratio of intercellular to ambient CO2 partial pressure, p(i)/p(a). Detailed gas exchange measurements of carbon isotope discrimination during CO2 uptake, Delta(A) and p(i)/p(a) were made on leaves of eight S. bicolor lines. The observed relationship between Delta(A) and p(i)/p(a) was linear with a negative slope of 3.7 parts per thousand in Delta(A) for a unit change in p(i)/p(a). The slope of this linear relationship between Delta(A) and p(i)/p(a) in C-4 species is dependent on the leakiness of the CO2 concentrating mechanism of the C pathway, We estimated the leakiness (defined as the fraction of CO2 released in the bundle sheath by C-4 acid decarboxylations, which is lost by leakage) to be 0.2. We conclude that, although variation in Delta(d) observed in the 30 lines of S. bicolor is smaller than that commonly observed in C-4 species, it also reflects variation in transpiration efficiency, W. Among the eight lines examined in detail and in the environments used, there was considerable genotype x environment interaction.