861 resultados para Spatiotemporal change model


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The report of significant decrease of the inpatient hospital mortality and morbidity with an efficient insulin therapy has demonstrated the need of a good glycaemic control for patients hospitalised in acute care. However, one is faced with numerous difficulties in the hospital management of patients with hyperglycaemia, errors often occur when prescribing insulin, and the management skills are insufficient. Our goal is to change the medical and nursing practices to evolve towards an efficient and safe management of the hospitalised patient. The model we lay out in this article is based upon observation of the therapeutic support of patients with a chronic condition, whilst using a systemic management approach.

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Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

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The O 1s x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy spectrum for Al(111)/O at 300 K shows two components whose behavior as a function of time and variation of detection angle are consistent with either (a) a surface species represented by the higher binding-energy (BE) component and a subsurface species represented by the lower BE component, or (b) small close-packed oxygen islands with the interior atoms represented by the lower BE component and the perimeter atoms by the higher BE component. We have modeled both situations using ab initio Hartree-Fock wave functions for clusters of Al and O atoms. For an O atom in a threefold site, it was found that a below-surface position gave a higher O 1s BE than an above-surface position, incompatible with interpretation (a). This change in the O 1s BE could arise because the bond for O to Al may have a more covalent character when the O is below the surface than when it is above the surface. We present evidence consistent with this view. An O adatom island with all the O atoms in threefold sites gives calculated O 1s BE's which are significantly higher for the perimeter O atoms. Further, the results for an isolated O island without the Al substrate present also give higher BE¿s for the perimeter atoms. Both these results are consistent with interpretation (b). Published scanning-tunneling-microscopy data supports the suggestion that the chemisorbed state consists of small, close-packed islands, whereas the presence of two vibrational modes in high-resolution electron-energy-loss spectroscopy data has been interpreted as representing surface and subsurface oxygen atoms. In light of the present results, we suggest that a vibrational interpretation in terms of interior and perimeter adatoms should be considered.

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We study, both theoretically and experimentally, the dynamical response of Turing patterns to a spatiotemporal forcing in the form of a traveling-wave modulation of a control parameter. We show that from strictly spatial resonance, it is possible to induce new, generic dynamical behaviors, including temporally modulated traveling waves and localized traveling solitonlike solutions. The latter make contact with the soliton solutions of Coullet [Phys. Rev. Lett. 56, 724 (1986)] and generalize them. The stability diagram for the different propagating modes in the Lengyel-Epstein model is determined numerically. Direct observations of the predicted solutions in experiments carried out with light modulations in the photosensitive chlorine dioxide-iodine-malonic acid reaction are also reported.

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Neuropathic pain is a major health issue and is frequently accompanied by allodynia (painful sensations in response to normally non-painful stimulations), and unpleasant paresthesia/dysesthesia, pointing to alterations in sensory pathways normally dedicated to the processing of non-nociceptive information. Interestingly, mounting evidence indicate that central glial cells are key players in allodynia, partly due to changes in the astrocytic capacity to scavenge extracellular glutamate and gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), through changes in their respective transporters (EAAT and GAT). In the present study, we investigated the glial changes occurring in the dorsal column nuclei, the major target of normally innocuous sensory information, in the rat spared nerve injury (SNI) model of neuropathic pain. We report that together with a robust microglial and astrocytic reaction in the ipsilateral gracile nucleus, the GABA transporter GAT-1 is upregulated with no change in GAT-3 or glutamate transporters. Furthermore, [(3)H] GABA reuptake on crude synaptosome preparation shows that transporter activity is functionally increased ipsilaterally in SNI rats. This GAT-1 upregulation appears evenly distributed in the gracile nucleus and colocalizes with astrocytic activation. Neither glial activation nor GAT-1 modulation was detected in the cuneate nucleus. Together, the present results point to GABA transport in the gracile nucleus as a putative therapeutic target against abnormal sensory perceptions related to neuropathic pain.

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We develop a simple model where two technologies are available to produce the same good, and we study under what conditions both will be used. We use the model to analyze the consequences of the simultaneous use of two different technologies for the economic variables and economic growth. Finally, we explore how migrations of factors affect the technological change and the performance of the economy.

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Many studies have investigated the impacts that climate change could potentially have on the distribution of plant species, but few have attempted to constrain projections through plant dispersal limitations. Instead, most studies published so far have been using the simplification of considering dispersal as either unlimited or null. However, depending on a species' dispersal capacity, landscape fragmentation, and the rate of climatic change, these assumptions can lead to serious over- or underestimation of a species' future distribution. To quantify the discrepancies between unlimited, realistic, and no dispersal scenarios, we carried out projections of future distribution over the 21st century for 287 mountain plant species in a study area of the Western Swiss Alps. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (unlimited dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events) and under four climate change scenarios. Although simulations accounting for realistic dispersal limitations did significantly differ from those considering dispersal as unlimited or null in terms of projected future distribution, using the unlimited dispersal simplification nevertheless provided good approximations for species extinctions under more moderate climate change scenarios. Overall, simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our mountainous study area, results that were significantly closer to unlimited dispersal than to no dispersal. Finally, analyzing the temporal pattern of species extinctions over the entire 21st century showed that, due to the possibility of a large number of species shifting their distribution to higher elevation, important species extinctions for our study area might not occur before the 2080-2100 time periods.

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RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

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Clarification-Oriented Psychotherapy (COP), an integrative treatment form with a basis in process-experiential psychotherapy, is particularly relevant for clients with Personality Disorders (PDs). We argue here that two related core therapeutic COP principles, "dual action regulation" and "interactional games" have consequences for symptom severity and therapeutic outcome for clients with PDs. A high quality COP clarification process requires that client's interactional games may be quickly assessed and treated in all (preferably early) therapy sessions. These processes can be observed and measured using the observer-rated Bochum Process and Relationship Rating Scales (BPRRS) which measure both clients' and therapists' contributions to the quality of the clarification processes engaged in therapy. This measure has been successfully applied to COP-therapies, but not, as yet, to therapies other than experiential, nor to specific client populations such as borderline personality disorder. The present study is a first attempt to evaluate the application of COP processes to other therapies and populations. We measured action regulation and interactional games using the BPRRS during intake sessions of a 10-session psychodynamic treatment of borderline personality disorder for a total of N = 30 clients and N = 8 therapists. Significant relationships were found between the client's degree of interactional games and both pretherapy symptom level and symptom change across therapy. These results are discussed in the context of Clarification-Oriented Psychotherapy, and more generally Person-Centered and Process-Experiential Psychotherapies. The potential relevance of the findings for psychodynamic psychotherapists are explored as well as the potential usefulness of taking into account a detailed analysis of interactional games for the training of psychotherapists working with any model of therapy working with clients presenting with BPD.

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Azole-resistant strains of Aspergillus fumigatus have been detected and the underlying molecular mechanisms of resistance characterized. Point mutations in the cyp51A gene have been proved to be related to azole resistance in A. fumigatus clinical strains and with different resistance profiles depending on the amino acid change (G54E, G54V, G54R, G54W, M220V, M220K, M220T, M220I). The aim of this work was to express A. fumigatus cyp51A genes in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae in order to better assess the contribution of each independent amino acid substitution to resistance. A tetracycline regulatable system allowing repression of the endogenous essential ERG11 gene was used. The expression of Aspergillus cyp51A alleles could efficiently restore the absence of ERG11 in S. cerevisiae. In general, S. cerevisiae clones expressing. A. fumigatus cyp51A alleles from azole-resistant isolates showed higher MICs to all azoles tested than those expressing alleles from susceptible isolates. The azole susceptibility profiles obtained in S. cerevisiae upon expression of specific cyp51A alleles recapitulated susceptibility profiles observed from their A. fumigatus origins. In conclusion this work supports the concept that characteristics of specific A. fumigatus cyp51A alleles could be investigated in the heterologous host S. cerevisiae.

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The current study proposes a new procedure for separately estimating slope change and level change between two adjacent phases in single-case designs. The procedure eliminates baseline trend from the whole data series prior to assessing treatment effectiveness. The steps necessary to obtain the estimates are presented in detail, explained, and illustrated. A simulation study is carried out to explore the bias and precision of the estimators and compare them to an analytical procedure matching the data simulation model. The experimental conditions include two data generation models, several degrees of serial dependence, trend, level and/or slope change. The results suggest that the level and slope change estimates provided by the procedure are unbiased for all levels of serial dependence tested and trend is effectively controlled for. The efficiency of the slope change estimator is acceptable, whereas the variance of the level change estimator may be problematic for highly negatively autocorrelated data series.

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Background: Bumblebees represent an active pollinator group in mountain regions and assure the pollination of many different plant species from low to high elevations. Plant-pollinator interactions are mediated by functional traits. Shift in bumblebee functional structure under climate change may impact plant-pollinator interactions in mountains. Here, we estimated bumblebee upward shift in elevation, community turnover, and change in functional structure under climate change. Method: We sampled bumblebee species at 149 sites along the elevation gradient. We used stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) forecasted under three climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, RCP3PD) to model the potential distribution of the Bombus species. Furthermore, we used species proboscis length measurements to assess the functional change in bumblebee assemblages along the elevation gradient. Results: We found species-specific response of bumblebee species to climate change. Species differed in their predicted rate of range contraction and expansion. Losers were mainly species currently restricted to high elevation. Under the most severe climate change scenarios (A2), we found a homogenization of proboscis length structure in bumblebee communities along the elevation gradient through the upward colonization of high elevation by species with longer proboscides. Conclusions: Here, we show that in addition to causing the shift in the distribution of bumblebee species, climate change may impact the functional structure of communities. The colonization of high elevation areas by bumblebee species with long proboscides may modify the structure of plant-pollination interaction networks by increasing the diversity of pollination services at high elevation.

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La douleur neuropathique est une forme de douleur chronique apparaissant suite à des lésions du système nerveux somato-sensoriel. Caractérisée par une plasticité neuronale inadapté, elle est très souvent intense, invalidante, associe des symptômes comme l'allodynie ou l' hyperalgésie et reste difficile à traiter avec les agents thérapeutiques actuels. Le thème de mon travail de thèse se concentre sur des mécanismes moléculaires de modulation des canaux sodiques voltage-dépendants suite à une lésion du nerf périphérique. Dans l'article présenté en annexe, j'ai focalisé mon travail sur une protéine, Nedd4-2, qui est une ligase ubiquitine. Elle a pour rôle de réguler et d'internaliser dans la cellule des protéines membranaires dont les canaux sodiques. Suite aux lésions du système nerveux périphérique, il existe une hyperexcitabilité neuronale engendrée notamment par un surplus et une dysrégulation des canaux sodiques à la membrane cellulaire. Dans 1 'hypothèse que l'ubiquitine ligase Nedd4-2 soit présente dans les neurones sensitifs primaires et ait un rôle dans la régulation des canaux sodiques, nous avons identifié cette protéine dans les neurones nociceptifs primaires du rat. En utilisant des techniques de Western Blot et d'immunohistochimie, j'ai trouvé que Nedd4-2 est présente dans presque 50% des neurones du ganglion spinal et ces neurones sont principalement des neurones nociceptifs. Dans un modèle expérimental de douleur neuropathique (SN I, pour spared nerve injury), Nedd4-2 se retrouve significativement diminuée dans le tissu du ganglion spinal. J'ai également investigué 1' expression de 2 isoformes des canaux sodiques connues pour leur implication dans la douleur, Navl.7 et Navl.8, et ces 2 isoformes se retrouvent dans les mêmes neurones que Nedd4-2. La caractérisation détaillée est décrite dans le manuscrit: «Neuronal expression of the ubiquitin ligase Nedd4-2 in rat dorsal root ganglia: modulation in the SNI model of neuropathic pain; Cachemaille M, Laedermann CJ, Pertin M, Abriel H, Gasselin RD, Decosterd 1.» Les résultats obtenus indiquent que Nedd4-2, en étant downrégulé après une lésion nerveuse, pourrait ainsi contribuer à une augmentation des canaux sodiques fonctionnels à la membrane. Ainsi Nedd4-2 pourrait être proposée comme cible thérapeutique de manière alternative aux bloqueurs de canaux sodiques. Ce travail a permis l'initiation d'autres expériences. J'ai contribué activement à la construction de vecteurs viraux type adéno-associé recombinant (rAA V2/6) et surexprimé la protéine in vivo dans les ganglions spinaux. Cette partie de mon travail se trouve intégrée dans d'autres travaux de mon laboratoire d'accueil qui a pu démontrer les effets fonctionnels de cette approche sur les courants sodiques enregistrés par électrophysiologie et une diminution de la douleur neuropathique chez la souris. - Abstract-Neuronal hyperexcitability following peripheral nerve lesions may stem from altered activity of voltagegated sodium channels (VGSCs), which gives rise toallodynia or hyperalgesia. In vitro, the ubiquitin ligase Nedd4-2 is a negative regulator of VGSC a-subunits (Nav), in particular Nav1.7, a key actor in nociceptor excitability. We therefore studied Nedd4-2 in rat nociceptors, its co-expression with Nav1.7 and Nav1.8, and its regulation in pathology. Adult rats were submitted to the spared nerve injury (SNI) model of neuropathic pain or injected with complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA), a model of inflammatory pain. L4 dorsal root ganglia (DRG) were analyzed in shamoperated animals, seven days after SNI and 48 h after CFA with immunofluorescence and Western blot. We observed Nedd4-2 expression in almost 50% of DRG neurons, mostly small and medium-sized. A preponderant localization is found in the non-peptidergic sub-population. Additionally, 55.7± 2.7% and 55.0 ±3.6% of Nedd4-2-positive cells are co-labeled with Nav1.7 and Nav1.8 respectively. SNI significantly decreases the proportion of Nedd4-2-positive neurons from 45.9± 1.9% to 33.5± 0.7% (p < 0.01) and the total Nedd4-2 protein to 44%± 0.13% of its basal level (p <0.01, n = 4 animals in each group, mean± SEM). In contrast, no change in Nedd4-2 was found after peripheral inflammation induced by CFA. These results indicate that Nedd4-2 is present in nociceptive neurons, is downregulated after peripheral nerve injury, and might therefore contribute to the dysregulation of Navs involved in the hyperexcitability associated with peripheral nerve injuries.

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Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

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The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.