European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Sediment mobilization deposits from episodic subsurface fluid flow—A new tool to reveal long-term earthquake records?

Subsurface fluid flow can be affected by earthquakes; increased spring activity, mud vol- cano eruptions, groundwater fluctuations, changes in geyser frequency, and other forms of altered subsurface fluid flow have been documented during, after, or even prior to seismic shaking. Recently discovered giant pockmarks on the bottom of Lake Neuchâtel, Switzerland, are the lake-floor expression of subsurface fluid flow. They discharge groundwater from the Jura Mountains karstic aquifers and experience episodically increased subsurface fluid flow documented by subsurface sediment mobilization deposits at the levees of the pockmarks. In this study, we present the spatio-temporal distribution of event deposits from these phases of sediment expulsion and of multiple time-correlative mass-transport deposits. We report five striking instances of concurrent multiple subsurface sediment deposits and multiple mass- transport deposits since late glacial times, for which we propose past earthquakes as a trigger. Comparison of this new event catalogue with historic earthquakes and other independent paleoseismic records suggests that initiation of sediment expulsion requires a minimum mac- roseismic intensity of VII. Thus, our study presents for the first time sedimentary deposits resulting from increased subsurface fluid flow as a paleoseismic proxy.

The application of principal component analysis on human development indicators: Temporal approach from 1999 to 2010

Background and Objective. Ever since the human development index was published in 1990 by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), many researchers started searching and corporative studying for more effective methods to measure the human development. Published in 1999, Lai’s “Temporal analysis of human development indicators: principal component approach” provided a valuable statistical way on human developmental analysis. This study presented in the thesis is the extension of Lai’s 1999 research. ^ Methods. I used the weighted principal component method on the human development indicators to measure and analyze the progress of human development in about 180 countries around the world from the year 1999 to 2010. The association of the main principal component obtained from the study and the human development index reported by the UNDP was estimated by the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. The main principal component was then further applied to quantify the temporal changes of the human development of selected countries by the proposed Z-test. ^ Results. The weighted means of all three human development indicators, health, knowledge, and standard of living, were increased from 1999 to 2010. The weighted standard deviation for GDP per capita was also increased across years indicated the rising inequality of standard of living among countries. The ranking of low development countries by the main principal component (MPC) is very similar to that by the human development index (HDI). Considerable discrepancy between MPC and HDI ranking was found among high development countries with high GDP per capita shifted to higher ranks. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between the main principal component and the human development index were all around 0.99. All the above results were very close to outcomes in Lai’s 1999 report. The Z test result on temporal analysis of main principal components from 1999 to 2010 on Qatar was statistically significant, but not on other selected countries, such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and U.S.A.^ Conclusion. To synthesize the multi-dimensional measurement of human development into a single index, the weighted principal component method provides a good model by using the statistical tool on a comprehensive ranking and measurement. Since the weighted main principle component index is more objective because of using population of nations as weight, more effective when the analysis is across time and space, and more flexible when the countries reported to the system has been changed year after year. Thus, in conclusion, the index generated by using weighted main principle component has some advantage over the human development index created in UNDP reports.^

Snow-pit measurements on Atka Bay landfast sea ice during ANT-Land 2012/2013 season

Up to now, snow cover on Antarctic sea ice and its impact on radar backscatter, particularly after the onset of freeze/thaw processes, are not well understood. Here we present a combined analysis of in situ observations of snow properties from the landfast sea ice in Atka Bay, Antarctica, and high-resolution TerraSAR-X backscatter data, for the transition from austral spring (November 2012) to summer (January 2013). The physical changes in the seasonal snow cover during that time are reflected in the evolution of TerraSAR-X backscatter. We are able to explain 76-93% of the spatio-temporal variability of the TerraSAR-X backscatter signal with up to four snowpack parameters with a root-mean-squared error of 0.87-1.62 dB, using a simple multiple linear model. Over the complete study, and especially after the onset of early-melt processes and freeze/thaw cycles, the majority of variability in the backscatter is influenced by changes in snow/ice interface temperature, snow depth and top-layer grain size. This suggests it may be possible to retrieve snow physical properties over Antarctic sea ice from X-band SAR backscatter.

Snow depths of volcanic events and accumulation rates of firn cores from the IPY traverse, Antarctica

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from 13 firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007-2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963-2007/08 being up to 25% different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10-20% over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

Integration of temporal and semantic components into the Geographic Information. Part II: Methodology

The overall objective of this research project is to enrich geographic data with temporal and semantic components in order to significantly improve spatio-temporal analysis of geographic phenomena. To achieve this goal, we intend to establish and incorporate three new layers (structures) into the core of the Geographic Information by using mark-up languages as well as defining a set of methods and tools for enriching the system to make it able to retrieve and exploit such layers (semantic-temporal, geosemantic, and incremental spatio-temporal). Besides these layers, we also propose a set of models (temporal and spatial) and two semantic engines that make the most of the enriched geographic data. The roots of the project and its definition have been previously presented in Siabato & Manso-Callejo 2011. In this new position paper, we extend such work by delineating clearly the methodology and the foundations on which we will base to define the main components of this research: the spatial model, the temporal model, the semantic layers, and the semantic engines. By putting together the former paper and this new work we try to present a comprehensive description of the whole process, from pinpointing the basic problem to describing and assessing the solution. In this new article we just mention the methods and the background to describe how we intend to define the components and integrate them into the GI.

Predicción espacio-temporal de la irradiancia solar global a corto plazo en España mediante geoestadística y redes neuronales artificiales

El enriquecimiento del conocimiento sobre la Irradiancia Solar (IS) a nivel de superficie terrestre, así como su predicción, cobran gran interés para las Energías Renovables (ER) - Energía Solar (ES)-, y para distintas aplicaciones industriales o ecológicas. En el ámbito de las ER, el uso óptimo de la ES implica contar con datos de la IS en superficie que ayuden tanto, en la selección de emplazamientos para instalaciones de ES, como en su etapa de diseño (dimensionar la producción) y, finalmente, en su explotación. En este último caso, la observación y la predicción es útil para el mercado energético, la planificación y gestión de la energía (generadoras y operadoras del sistema eléctrico), especialmente en los nuevos contextos de las redes inteligentes de transporte. A pesar de la importancia estratégica de contar con datos de la IS, especialmente los observados por sensores de IS en superficie (los que mejor captan esta variable), estos no siempre están disponibles para los lugares de interés ni con la resolución espacial y temporal deseada. Esta limitación se une a la necesidad de disponer de predicciones a corto plazo de la IS que ayuden a la planificación y gestión de la energía. Se ha indagado y caracterizado las Redes de Estaciones Meteorológicas (REM) existentes en España que publican en internet sus observaciones, focalizando en la IS. Se han identificado 24 REM (16 gubernamentales y 8 redes voluntarios) que aglutinan 3492 estaciones, convirtiéndose éstas en las fuentes de datos meteorológicos utilizados en la tesis. Se han investigado cinco técnicas de estimación espacial de la IS en intervalos de 15 minutos para el territorio peninsular (3 técnicas geoestadísticas, una determinística y el método HelioSat2 basado en imágenes satelitales) con distintas configuraciones espaciales. Cuando el área de estudio tiene una adecuada densidad de observaciones, el mejor método identificado para estimar la IS es el Kriging con Regresión usando variables auxiliares -una de ellas la IS estimada a partir de imágenes satelitales-. De este modo es posible estimar espacialmente la IS más allá de los 25 km identificados en la bibliografía. En caso contrario, se corrobora la idoneidad de utilizar estimaciones a partir de sensores remotos cuando la densidad de observaciones no es adecuada. Se ha experimentado con el modelado de Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) para la predicción a corto plazo de la IS utilizando observaciones próximas (componentes espaciales) en sus entradas y, los resultados son prometedores. Así los niveles de errores disminuyen bajo las siguientes condiciones: (1) cuando el horizonte temporal de predicción es inferior o igual a 3 horas, las estaciones vecinas que se incluyen en el modelo deben encentrarse a una distancia máxima aproximada de 55 km. Esto permite concluir que las RNA son capaces de aprender cómo afectan las condiciones meteorológicas vecinas a la predicción de la IS. ABSTRACT ABSTRACT The enrichment of knowledge about the Solar Irradiance (SI) at Earth's surface and its prediction, have a high interest for Renewable Energy (RE) - Solar Energy (SE) - and for various industrial and environmental applications. In the field of the RE, the optimal use of the SE involves having SI surface to help in the selection of sites for facilities ES, in the design stage (sizing energy production), and finally on their production. In the latter case, the observation and prediction is useful for the market, planning and management of the energy (generators and electrical system operators), especially in new contexts of smart transport networks (smartgrid). Despite the strategic importance of SI data, especially those observed by sensors of SI at surface (the ones that best measure this environmental variable), these are not always available to the sights and the spatial and temporal resolution desired. This limitation is bound to the need for short-term predictions of the SI to help planning and energy management. It has been investigated and characterized existing Networks of Weather Stations (NWS) in Spain that share its observations online, focusing on SI. 24 NWS have been identified (16 government and 8 volunteer networks) that implies 3492 stations, turning it into the sources of meteorological data used in the thesis. We have investigated five technical of spatial estimation of SI in 15 minutes to the mainland (3 geostatistical techniques and HelioSat2 a deterministic method based on satellite images) with different spatial configurations. When the study area has an adequate density of observations we identified the best method to estimate the SI is the regression kriging with auxiliary variables (one of them is the SI estimated from satellite images. Thus it is possible to spatially estimate the SI beyond the 25 km identified in the literature. Otherwise, when the density of observations is inadequate the appropriateness is using the estimates values from remote sensing. It has been experimented with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) modeling for predicting the short-term future of the SI using observations from neighbor’s weather stations (spatial components) in their inputs, and the results are promising. The error levels decrease under the following conditions: (1) when the prediction horizon is less or equal than 3 hours the best models are the ones that include data from the neighboring stations (at a maximum distance of 55 km). It is concluded that the ANN is able to learn how weather conditions affect neighboring prediction of IS at such Spatio-temporal horizons.

Signal changes in the spinal cord of the rat after injection of formalin into the hindpaw: Characterization using functional magnetic resonance imaging

Changes in metabolism and local circulation occur in the spinal cord during peripheral noxious stimulation. Evidence is presented that this stimulation also causes signal intensity alterations in functional magnetic resonance images of the spinal cord during formalin-induced pain. These results indicate the potential of functional magnetic resonance imaging in assessing noninvasively the extent and intensity of spinal cord excitation in this well characterized pain model. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish functional magnetic resonance imaging as a noninvasive method to characterize temporal changes in the spinal cord after a single injection of 50 μl of formalin subcutaneously into the hindpaw of the anesthetized rat. This challenge produced a biphasic licking activity in the freely moving conscious animal. Images of the spinal cord were acquired within 2 min, enabling monitoring of the site and the temporal evolution of the signal changes during the development of formalin-induced hyperalgesia without the need of any surgical procedure. The time course of changes in the spinal cord functional image in the isoflurane-anesthetized animal was similar to that obtained from behavioral experiments. Also, comparable physiological data, control experiments, and the inhibition of a response through application of the local anesthetic agent lidocaine indicate that the signal changes observed after formalin injection were specifically related to excitability changes in the relevant segments of the lumbar spinal cord. This approach could be useful to characterize different models of pain and hyperalgesia and, more importantly, to evaluate effects of analgesic drugs.

Seeing properties of an invisible object: Feature inheritance and shine-through

We characterize a class of spatio-temporal illusions with two complementary properties. Firstly, if a vernier stimulus is flashed for a short time on a monitor and is followed immediately by a grating, the latter can express features of the vernier, such as its offset, its orientation, or its motion (feature inheritance). Yet the vernier stimulus itself remains perceptually invisible. Secondly, the vernier can be rendered visible by presenting gratings with a larger number of elements (shine-through). Under these conditions, subjects perceive two independent “objects” each carrying their own features. Transition between these two domains can be effected by subtle changes in the spatio-temporal layout of the grating. This should allow psychophysicists and electrophysiologists to investigate feature binding in a precise and quantitative manner.

Temporal Regulation of Somatic Embryogenesis by Adjusting Cellular Polyamine Content in Eggplant1

Four critical stages of embryogenesis, including callus induction, cellular acquisition of morphogenetic competence, expression of embryogenic program, and development and maturation of somatic embryos during somatic embryogenesis from leaf discs of eggplant (Solanum melongena L.), were identified by scanning electron microscopy. Temporal changes in arginine decarboxylase (ADC) activity and polyamines (PAs) during critical stages of embryogenesis revealed that high levels of PAs (especially putrescine [PUT]), due to higher ADC activity in discs from the apical region (with high embryogenic capacity) than from the basal region of the leaf (with poor embryogenic capacity), were correlated with differential embryogenesis response. Kinetic studies of the up- and down-regulation of embryogenesis revealed that PUT and difluoromethylarginine pretreatments were most effective before the onset of embryogenesis. Basal discs pretreated with PUT for 4 to 7 d showed improved embryogenesis that was comparable to apical discs. PA content at various critical steps in embryogenesis from basal discs were found to be comparable to that of apical discs following adjustments of cellular PA content by PUT. In contrast, pretreatment of apical discs with difluoromethylarginine for 3 d significantly reduced ADC activity, cellular PA content, and embryogenesis to levels that were comparable to basal discs. Discs from the basal region of leaves treated with PUT for 3 d during the identified stages of embryogenesis improved their embryogenic potential.

Relações espaço-temporais como restrições de tomadas de decisões na grande área no futebol

Este estudo investigou as tomadas de decisões de jogadores dentro da grande área do futebol com base em variáveis espaciais e espaço-temporais de coordenações interpessoal e extrapessoal. Participaram do estudo 150 jogadores do sexo masculino, com idade entre 18 e 38 anos, e experiência de prática neste esporte de, no mínimo, 7 anos. Foram filmados 12 jogos de futebol de um campeonato amador na Colômbia. As imagens capturadas foram analisadas através do software TACTO, e as variáveis consideradas para análise foram as seguintes: i) ângulo de chute, formado por vetores ligando o jogador com posse de bola a dois componentes do jogo que geravam uma lacuna no gol; ii) ângulo A de passe, composto por vetores conectando o portador da bola ao seu marcador mais próximo e ao seu companheiro de equipe; iii) ângulo B de passe, formado por vetores ligando o portador da bola ao seu companheiro de equipe e ao marcador mais próximo dele; iv) distância interpessoal, caracterizada pela distância entre o jogador com posse de bola e seu defensor mais próximo; v) velocidade e variabilidade relacionadas às mudanças em cada uma dessas medidas. Essas variáveis foram comparadas em relação a situações de chute, passe e drible. Os resultados revelaram que, em relação à decisão de chutar, o ângulo de chute representando a interação entre as possibilidades de completá-lo e de o mesmo ser interceptado, diferiu do mesmo ângulo em que as decisões de passe e drible foram tomadas; e, na decisão de driblar, a distância interpessoal apresentou diferenças com as situações em que o passe foi executado. Concluiu-se que, no caso do chute ao gol e o drible, os ângulos de chute e distâncias interpessoais, respectivamente, funcionaram como variáveis informacionais de coordenações interpessoal e extrapessoal importantes para as tomadas de decisão

Desenvolvimento floral e do óvulo e aspectos da reprodução em Aechmea sp. e Vriesea sp. (Bromeliaceae)

A utilização de Bromélias tem sido crescente no mercado de plantas onamentais, por outro lado, muitas espécies encontram-se ameaçadas, grande parte pelos impactos humanos no ambiente. Aechmea correia-araujoi E. Pereira & Moutinho, Aechmea gamossepala Wittm, Vriesea ensiformis (Vell.) Beer e Vriesea saundersii (Carrière) E. Morren ex Mez, espécies nativas da Mata Atlântica brasileira, têm sido alvo de extrativismo. Informações básicas sobre a espécie são essenciais para subsidiar a condução de programas de conservação e melhoramento genético, que aliados a ferramentas biotecnológicas permitem a incorporação de estratégias inovadoras aos métodos de melhoramento. Neste sentido, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi descrever essas espécies, quanto à micromorfologia floral, aspectos reprodutivos envolvidos no processo de polinização, desenvolvimento floral e deesenvolvimento gametofítico, como mecanismo de preservação e produção comercial. A caracterização morfológica e anatômica das flores das espécies de Aechmea e Vriesea contribuiu para a compreensão do processo reprodutivo. As espécies apresentam grãos de pólen com alta capacidade reprodutiva, viabilidade polínica superior a 93%, germinação in vitro maior que 80% e o estigma apresenta-se receptivo da antese ao final do dia. A ontogênese floral de A. correia-araujoi é centrípeta, os primórdios desenvolvem-se na ordem, sépala, pétala, androceu e gineceu. O apêndice petalar é formado na fase final do desenvolvimento. O primórdio de óvulo tem origem placentária e caráter trizonal, o óvulo é anátropo, bitegumentado e crassinucelado. O meristema floral de A. gamosepala se desenvolve de forma centrípeta, de forma unidirecional reversa. O estigma diferencia-se na fase inicial do desenvolvimento e os apêndices petalares, na fase final. O óvulo é anátropo, crassinucelado, bitegumentado, tétrade linear, megásporo calazal funcional, desenvolvimento tipo monospórico e Polygonum. As anteras são bitecas, tetraesporangiadas, com tapete secretor. Botões florais de 8,7 - 13,0 mm são indicados no estudo de embriogênese a partir de micrósporo. As alterações celulares e o padrão de distribuição de pectinas e AGPs foram caracterizadas por análise citoquímica com azul de toluidina, KI e DAPI e imunocitoquímica por imunofluorescência com os anticorpos para RNA, pectinas esterificadas (JIM7), não esterificadas (JIM5) e AGPs (LM2, LM6, MAC207, JIM13, JIM14) e analisadas por microscopia de fluorescência. Foram caracterizados padrões de distribuição espaço-temporal de pectinas e AGP que podem ser utilizados como marcadores de desenvolvimento gametofítico masculino. As observações feitas nesse trabalho fornecem dados sobre aspectos reprodutivos das espécies que podem ser utilizados em programas de melhoramento genético, conservação e desenvolvimento de haploides

Variations in coastal fish species composition captured by traps in Romsdalsfjord, Western Norway

Fish traps are widely used in Norwegian fjords, especially those designed for monitoring salmonid populations in the marine environment, although many other marine fish species are also captured. The composition and spatio-temporal variations of fish species captured by fish traps were monitored in five different coastal locations throughout the Romsdalsfjord region, Western Norway, from May to August during the three consecutive years (2011–2013). Twenty-three fish species were captured by traps in coastal waters, both resident and migratory fishes. The most common fish and with greater catchability were saithe (Pollachis virens) and sea trout (Salmo trutta), followed by cod (Gadus morhua), pollack (P. pollachius), herring (Clupea harengus) and mackerels (Trachurus trachurus and Scomber scombrus). However, the captured assemblage presented great spatial and seasonal variations, in terms of mean daily catch, probably associated with hydrographical conditions and migrational patterns. Information obtained in this study will help us to better understand the compositions and dynamic of coastal fish populations inhabiting Norwegian coastal waters. In addition, traps are highly recommended as a management tool for fish research (e.g. fish-tagging experiments, mark and recapture) and conservation purposes (coastal use and fisheries studies).

Selfmapping : o mapa colaborativo como medium de visualização espácio-temporal

THE MAP AS A COLLABORATIVE MEDIUM FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL VISUALIZATION This dissertation focuses on the relationship between maps and spatio-temporal data visualization. It is divided into two components: theoretical framework and practical approach. The study begins by questioning the role of the map in today’s digital society and particularly its role in visualization, and finishes with the conceptualization and development of an interactive dot map that visualizes data from Instagram and Twitter. Nowadays, geographic information is no longer produced just by experts, but also by ordinary people that are able to participate in data creation and exchange. The Web 2.0 lies in the heart of this change, where social media represent a significant tool for producing geotagged content, allowing its users to share their location and to spatially reference their publications. Furthermore, amateur mapmaking and neogeography have benefited from the emergence of several new devices that enable the creation of digital maps that are interactive, adaptable and easily shared on the Web. This study adopts a descriptive approach calling upon the diverse aspects of the map and its evolution as a medium for visualizing geotagged data, highlighting collaborative mapping as an emerging subject area that is of mandatory future research. Relevant projects are also analyzed in order to identify trends and different approaches for visualizing social media data in its spatial context, intended to support the project’s conceptualization, development and evaluation. The created map demonstrates how spatial knowledge and perception of place are now redefined by the contributions of individuals; it also shows how that activity produces new sources of geographic information, forcing the development of new techniques and approaches that allow an adequate exploration of content and visualization methods of the contemporary map

Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA

1Recent studies demonstrated the sensitivity of northern forest ecosystems to changes in the amount and duration of snow cover at annual to decadal time scales. However, the consequences of snowfall variability remain uncertain for ecological variables operating at longer time scales, especially the distributions of forest communities. 2The Great Lakes region of North America offers a unique setting to examine the long-term effects of variable snowfall on forest communities. Lake-effect snow produces a three-fold gradient in annual snowfall over tens of kilometres, and dramatic edaphic variations occur among landform types resulting from Quaternary glaciations. We tested the hypothesis that these factors interact to control the distributions of mesic (dominated by Acer saccharum, Tsuga canadensis and Fagus grandifolia) and xeric forests (dominated by Pinus and Quercus spp.) in northern Lower Michigan. 3We compiled pre-European-settlement vegetation data and overlaid these data with records of climate, water balance and soil, onto Landtype Association polygons in a geographical information system. We then used multivariate adaptive regression splines to model the abundance of mesic vegetation in relation to environmental controls. 4Snowfall is the most predictive among five variables retained by our model, and it affects model performance 29% more than soil texture, the second most important variable. The abundance of mesic trees is high on fine-textured soils regardless of snowfall, but it increases with snowfall on coarse-textured substrates. Lake-effect snowfall also determines the species composition within mesic forests. The weighted importance of A. saccharum is significantly greater than of T. canadensis or F. grandifolia within the lake-effect snowbelt, whereas T. canadensis is more plentiful outside the snowbelt. These patterns are probably driven by the influence of snowfall on soil moisture, nutrient availability and fire return intervals. 5Our results imply that a key factor dictating the spatio-temporal patterns of forest communities in the vast region around the Great Lakes is how the lake-effect snowfall regime responds to global change. Snowfall reductions will probably cause a major decrease in the abundance of ecologically and economically important species, such as A. saccharum.