Automated Equation Formulation for Causal Loop Diagrams

The annotation of Business Dynamics models with parameters and equations, to simulate the system under study and further evaluate its simulation output, typically involves a lot of manual work. In this paper we present an approach for automated equation formulation of a given Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a set of associated time series with the help of neural network evolution (NEvo). NEvo enables the automated retrieval of surrogate equations for each quantity in the given CLD, hence it produces a fully annotated CLD that can be used for later simulations to predict future KPI development. In the end of the paper, we provide a detailed evaluation of NEvo on a business use-case to demonstrate its single step prediction capabilities.

An examination of the usefulness of single-species biomass models for the management of Lake Victoria fisheries

Nile perch (Lates niloticus), tilapia (Oreochromis spp), dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea, silver cyprinid), and haplochromines (Tribe Haplochromini) form the backbone of the commercial fishery on Lake Victoria. These fish stocks account for about 70% of the total catch in the three riparian states Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. The lake fisheries have been poorly managed, in part due to inadequate scientific analysis and management advice. The overall objective of this project was to model the stocks of the commercial fisheries of Lake Victoria with the view of determining reference points and current stock status. The Schaefer biomass model was fitted to available data for each stock (starting in the 1960s or later) in the form of landings, catch per unit effort, acoustic survey indices, and trawl survey indices. In most cases, the Schaefer model did not fit all data components very well, but attempts were made to find the best model for each stock. When the model was fitted to the Nile perch data starting from 1996, the estimated current biomass is 654 kt (95% CI 466–763); below the optimum of 692 kt and current harvest rate is 38% (33–73%), close to the optimum of 35%. At best, these can be used as tentative guidelines for the management of these fisheries. The results indicate that there have been strong multispecies interactions in the lake ecosystem. The findings from our study can be used as a baseline reference for future studies using more complex models, which could take these multispecies interactions into account.

Discrete Velocity Models for Mixtures Without Nonphysical Collision Invariants

An important aspect of constructing discrete velocity models (DVMs) for the Boltzmann equation is to obtain the right number of collision invariants. It is a well-known fact that DVMs can also have extra collision invariants, so called spurious collision invariants, in plus to the physical ones. A DVM with only physical collision invariants, and so without spurious ones, is called normal. For binary mixtures also the concept of supernormal DVMs was introduced, meaning that in addition to the DVM being normal, the restriction of the DVM to any single species also is normal. Here we introduce generalizations of this concept to DVMs for multicomponent mixtures. We also present some general algorithms for constructing such models and give some concrete examples of such constructions. One of our main results is that for any given number of species, and any given rational mass ratios we can construct a supernormal DVM. The DVMs are constructed in such a way that for half-space problems, as the Milne and Kramers problems, but also nonlinear ones, we obtain similar structures as for the classical discrete Boltzmann equation for one species, and therefore we can apply obtained results for the classical Boltzmann equation.

Comparison of Photovoltaic panel’s standard and simplified models

Shockley diode equation is basic for single diode model equation, which is overly used for characterizing the photovoltaic cell output and behavior. In the standard equation, it includes series resistance (Rs) and shunt resistance (Rsh) with different types of parameters. Maximum simulation and modeling work done previously, related to single diode photovoltaic cell used this equation. However, there is another form of the standard equation which has not included Series Resistance (Rs) and Shunt Resistance (Rsh) yet, as the Shunt Resistance is much bigger than the load resistance and the load resistance is much bigger than the Series Resistance. For this phenomena, very small power loss occurs within a photovoltaic cell. This research focuses on the comparison of two forms of basic Shockley diode equation. This analysis describes a deep understanding of the photovoltaic cell, as well as gives understanding about Series Resistance (Rs) and Shunt Resistance (Rsh) behavior in the Photovoltaic cell. For making estimation of a real time photovoltaic system, faster calculation is needed. The equation without Series Resistance and Shunt Resistance is appropriate for the real time environment. Error function for both Series resistance (Rs) and Shunt resistances (Rsh) have been analyzed which shows that the total system is not affected by this two parameters' behavior.

Detailed analysis of a conservative difference approximation for the time fractional diffusion equation

Diffusion equations that use time fractional derivatives are attractive because they describe a wealth of problems involving non-Markovian Random walks. The time fractional diffusion equation (TFDE) is obtained from the standard diffusion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative with a fractional derivative of order α ∈ (0, 1). Developing numerical methods for solving fractional partial differential equations is a new research field and the theoretical analysis of the numerical methods associated with them is not fully developed. In this paper an explicit conservative difference approximation (ECDA) for TFDE is proposed. We give a detailed analysis for this ECDA and generate discrete models of random walk suitable for simulating random variables whose spatial probability density evolves in time according to this fractional diffusion equation. The stability and convergence of the ECDA for TFDE in a bounded domain are discussed. Finally, some numerical examples are presented to show the application of the present technique.

Estimating indoor air quality using integrated 3D CAD building models

The indoor air quality (IAQ) in buildings is currently assessed by measurement of pollutants during building operation for comparison with air quality standards. Current practice at the design stage tries to minimise potential indoor air quality impacts of new building materials and contents by selecting low-emission materials. However low-emission materials are not always available, and even when used the aggregated pollutant concentrations from such materials are generally overlooked. This paper presents an innovative tool for estimating indoor air pollutant concentrations at the design stage, based on emissions over time from large area building materials, furniture and office equipment. The estimator considers volatile organic compounds, formaldehyde and airborne particles from indoor materials and office equipment and the contribution of outdoor urban air pollutants affected by urban location and ventilation system filtration. The estimated pollutants are for a single, fully mixed and ventilated zone in an office building with acceptable levels derived from Australian and international health-based standards. The model acquires its dimensional data for the indoor spaces from a 3D CAD model via IFC files and the emission data from a building products/contents emissions database. This paper describes the underlying approach to estimating indoor air quality and discusses the benefits of such an approach for designers and the occupants of buildings.

Merging business process models

This paper addresses the following problem: given two or more business process models, create a process model that is the union of the process models given as input. In other words, the behavior of the produced process model should encompass that of the input models. The paper describes an algorithm that produces a single configurable process model from an arbitrary collection of process models. The algorithm works by extracting the common parts of the input process models, creating a single copy of them, and appending the differences as branches of configurable connectors. This way, the merged process model is kept as small as possible, while still capturing all the behavior of the input models. Moreover, analysts are able to trace back from which original model(s) does a given element in the merged model come from. The algorithm has been prototyped and tested against process models taken from several application domains.

Different cognitive profiles for single compared with recurrent fallers without Dementia

Relationships between self-reported retrospective falls and cognitive measures (executive function, reaction time, processing speed, working memory, visual attention) were examined in a population based sample of older adults (n = 658). Two of the choice reaction time tests involved inhibiting responses to either targets of a specific color or location with hand and foot responses. Potentially confounding demographic variables, medical conditions and postural sway were controlled for in logistic regression models, excluding participants with possible cognitive impairment. A factor analysis of cognitive measures extracted factors measuring reaction time, accuracy and inhibition, and visual search. Single fallers did not differ from non-fallers in terms of health, sway or cognitive function, except that they performed worse on accuracy and inhibition. In contrast, recurrent fallers performed worse than non-fallers on all measures. Results suggest that occasional falls in late life may be associated with subtle age-related changes in the pre-frontal cortex leading to failures of executive control, whereas recurrent falling may result from more advanced brain ageing that is associated with generalized cognitive decline.

Mapping a suburb with a single camera using a biologically inspired SLAM system

This paper describes a biologically inspired approach to vision-only simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) on ground-based platforms. The core SLAM system, dubbed RatSLAM, is based on computational models of the rodent hippocampus, and is coupled with a lightweight vision system that provides odometry and appearance information. RatSLAM builds a map in an online manner, driving loop closure and relocalization through sequences of familiar visual scenes. Visual ambiguity is managed by maintaining multiple competing vehicle pose estimates, while cumulative errors in odometry are corrected after loop closure by a map correction algorithm. We demonstrate the mapping performance of the system on a 66 km car journey through a complex suburban road network. Using only a web camera operating at 10 Hz, RatSLAM generates a coherent map of the entire environment at real-time speed, correctly closing more than 51 loops of up to 5 km in length.

Bayesian hybrid algorithms and models : implementation and associated issues

This thesis addresses computational challenges arising from Bayesian analysis of complex real-world problems. Many of the models and algorithms designed for such analysis are ‘hybrid’ in nature, in that they are a composition of components for which their individual properties may be easily described but the performance of the model or algorithm as a whole is less well understood. The aim of this research project is to after a better understanding of the performance of hybrid models and algorithms. The goal of this thesis is to analyse the computational aspects of hybrid models and hybrid algorithms in the Bayesian context. The first objective of the research focuses on computational aspects of hybrid models, notably a continuous finite mixture of t-distributions. In the mixture model, an inference of interest is the number of components, as this may relate to both the quality of model fit to data and the computational workload. The analysis of t-mixtures using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is described and the model is compared to the Normal case based on the goodness of fit. Through simulation studies, it is demonstrated that the t-mixture model can be more flexible and more parsimonious in terms of number of components, particularly for skewed and heavytailed data. The study also reveals important computational issues associated with the use of t-mixtures, which have not been adequately considered in the literature. The second objective of the research focuses on computational aspects of hybrid algorithms for Bayesian analysis. Two approaches will be considered: a formal comparison of the performance of a range of hybrid algorithms and a theoretical investigation of the performance of one of these algorithms in high dimensions. For the first approach, the delayed rejection algorithm, the pinball sampler, the Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm, and the hybrid version of the population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm are selected as a set of examples of hybrid algorithms. Statistical literature shows how statistical efficiency is often the only criteria for an efficient algorithm. In this thesis the algorithms are also considered and compared from a more practical perspective. This extends to the study of how individual algorithms contribute to the overall efficiency of hybrid algorithms, and highlights weaknesses that may be introduced by the combination process of these components in a single algorithm. The second approach to considering computational aspects of hybrid algorithms involves an investigation of the performance of the PMC in high dimensions. It is well known that as a model becomes more complex, computation may become increasingly difficult in real time. In particular the importance sampling based algorithms, including the PMC, are known to be unstable in high dimensions. This thesis examines the PMC algorithm in a simplified setting, a single step of the general sampling, and explores a fundamental problem that occurs in applying importance sampling to a high-dimensional problem. The precision of the computed estimate from the simplified setting is measured by the asymptotic variance of the estimate under conditions on the importance function. Additionally, the exponential growth of the asymptotic variance with the dimension is demonstrated and we illustrates that the optimal covariance matrix for the importance function can be estimated in a special case.

Incorporating uncertainty in environmental models informed by imagery

In this thesis, the issue of incorporating uncertainty for environmental modelling informed by imagery is explored by considering uncertainty in deterministic modelling, measurement uncertainty and uncertainty in image composition. Incorporating uncertainty in deterministic modelling is extended for use with imagery using the Bayesian melding approach. In the application presented, slope steepness is shown to be the main contributor to total uncertainty in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. A spatial sampling procedure is also proposed to assist in implementing Bayesian melding given the increased data size with models informed by imagery. Measurement error models are another approach to incorporating uncertainty when data is informed by imagery. These models for measurement uncertainty, considered in a Bayesian conditional independence framework, are applied to ecological data generated from imagery. The models are shown to be appropriate and useful in certain situations. Measurement uncertainty is also considered in the context of change detection when two images are not co-registered. An approach for detecting change in two successive images is proposed that is not affected by registration. The procedure uses the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test on homogeneous segments of an image to detect change, with the homogeneous segments determined using a Bayesian mixture model of pixel values. Using the mixture model to segment an image also allows for uncertainty in the composition of an image. This thesis concludes by comparing several different Bayesian image segmentation approaches that allow for uncertainty regarding the allocation of pixels to different ground components. Each segmentation approach is applied to a data set of chlorophyll values and shown to have different benefits and drawbacks depending on the aims of the analysis.

Bayesian models for longitudinal data

Longitudinal data, where data are repeatedly observed or measured on a temporal basis of time or age provides the foundation of the analysis of processes which evolve over time, and these can be referred to as growth or trajectory models. One of the traditional ways of looking at growth models is to employ either linear or polynomial functional forms to model trajectory shape, and account for variation around an overall mean trend with the inclusion of random eects or individual variation on the functional shape parameters. The identification of distinct subgroups or sub-classes (latent classes) within these trajectory models which are not based on some pre-existing individual classification provides an important methodology with substantive implications. The identification of subgroups or classes has a wide application in the medical arena where responder/non-responder identification based on distinctly diering trajectories delivers further information for clinical processes. This thesis develops Bayesian statistical models and techniques for the identification of subgroups in the analysis of longitudinal data where the number of time intervals is limited. These models are then applied to a single case study which investigates the neuropsychological cognition for early stage breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment from the Cognition in Breast Cancer Study undertaken by the Wesley Research Institute of Brisbane, Queensland. Alternative formulations to the linear or polynomial approach are taken which use piecewise linear models with a single turning point, change-point or knot at a known time point and latent basis models for the non-linear trajectories found for the verbal memory domain of cognitive function before and after chemotherapy treatment. Hierarchical Bayesian random eects models are used as a starting point for the latent class modelling process and are extended with the incorporation of covariates in the trajectory profiles and as predictors of class membership. The Bayesian latent basis models enable the degree of recovery post-chemotherapy to be estimated for short and long-term followup occasions, and the distinct class trajectories assist in the identification of breast cancer patients who maybe at risk of long-term verbal memory impairment.

Shear behaviour and design of LiteSteel beams

OneSteel Australian Tube Mills has recently developed a new hollow flange channel cold-formed section, known as the LiteSteel Beam (LSB). The innovative LSB sections have the beneficial characteristics of torsionally rigid closed rectangular flanges combined with economical fabrication processes from a single strip of high strength steel. They combine the stability of hot-rolled steel sections with the high strength to weight ratio of conventional cold-formed steel sections. The LSB sections are commonly used as flexural members in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. In order to ensure safe and efficient designs of LSBs, many research studies have been undertaken on the flexural behaviour of LSBs. However, no research has been undertaken on the shear behaviour of LSBs. Therefore this thesis investigated the ultimate shear strength behaviour of LSBs with and without web openings including their elastic buckling and post-buckling characteristics using both experimental and finite element analyses, and developed accurate shear design rules. Currently the elastic shear buckling coefficients of web panels are determined by assuming conservatively that the web panels are simply supported at the junction between the web and flange elements. Therefore finite element analyses were conducted first to investigate the elastic shear buckling behaviour of LSBs to determine the true support condition at the junction between their web and flange elements. An equation for the higher elastic shear buckling coefficient of LSBs was developed and included in the shear capacity equations in the cold-formed steel structures code, AS/NZS 4600. Predicted shear capacities from the modified equations and the available experimental results demonstrated the improvements to the shear capacities of LSBs due to the presence of higher level of fixity at the LSB flange to web juncture. A detailed study into the shear flow distribution of LSB was also undertaken prior to the elastic buckling analysis study. The experimental study of ten LSB sections included 42 shear tests of LSBs with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 that were loaded at midspan until failure. Both single and back to back LSB arrangements were used. Test specimens were chosen such that all three types of shear failure (shear yielding, inelastic and elastic shear buckling) occurred in the tests. Experimental results showed that the current cold-formed steel design rules are very conservative for the shear design of LSBs. Significant improvements to web shear buckling occurred due to the presence of rectangular hollow flanges while considerable post-buckling strength was also observed. Experimental results were presented and compared with corresponding predictions from the current design rules. Appropriate improvements have been proposed for the shear strength of LSBs based on AISI (2007) design equations and test results. Suitable design rules were also developed under the direct strength method (DSM) format. This thesis also includes the shear test results of cold-formed lipped channel beams from LaBoube and Yu (1978a), and the new design rules developed based on them using the same approach used with LSBs. Finite element models of LSBs in shear were also developed to investigate the ultimate shear strength behaviour of LSBs including their elastic and post-buckling characteristics. They were validated by comparing their results with experimental test results. Details of the finite element models of LSBs, the nonlinear analysis results and their comparisons with experimental results are presented in this thesis. Finite element analysis results showed that the current cold-formed steel design rules are very conservative for the shear design of LSBs. They also confirmed other experimental findings relating to elastic and post-buckling shear strength of LSBs. A detailed parametric study based on validated experimental finite element model was undertaken to develop an extensive shear strength data base and was then used to confirm the accuracy of the new shear strength equations proposed in this thesis. Experimental and numerical studies were also undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour of LSBs with web openings. Twenty six shear tests were first undertaken using a three point loading arrangement. It was found that AS/NZS 4600 and Shan et al.'s (1997) design equations are conservative for the shear design of LSBs with web openings while McMahon et al.'s (2008) design equation are unconservative. Experimental finite element models of LSBs with web openings were then developed and validated by comparing their results with experimental test results. The developed nonlinear finite element model was found to predict the shear capacity of LSBs with web opening with very good accuracy. Improved design equations have been proposed for the shear capacity of LSBs with web openings based on both experimental and FEA parametric study results. This thesis presents the details of experimental and numerical studies of the shear behaviour and strength of LSBs with and without web openings and the results including the developed accurate design rules.

Flexural behaviour and design of the new built-up LiteSteel beams

LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel beam produced by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills. The new beam is effectively a channel section with two rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web, and is manufactured using a combined cold-forming and electric resistance welding process. OneSteel Australian Tube Mills is promoting the use of LSBs as flexural members in a range of applications, such as floor bearers. When LSBs are used as back to back built-up sections, they are likely to improve their moment capacity and thus extend their applications further. However, the structural behaviour of built-up beams is not well understood. Many steel design codes include guidelines for connecting two channels to form a built-up I-section including the required longitudinal spacing of connections. But these rules were found to be inadequate in some applications. Currently the safe spans of builtup beams are determined based on twice the moment capacity of a single section. Research has shown that these guidelines are conservative. Therefore large scale lateral buckling tests and advanced numerical analyses were undertaken to investigate the flexural behaviour of back to back LSBs connected by fasteners (bolts) at various longitudinal spacings under uniform moment conditions. In this research an experimental investigation was first undertaken to study the flexural behaviour of back to back LSBs including its buckling characteristics. This experimental study included tensile coupon tests, initial geometric imperfection measurements and lateral buckling tests. The initial geometric imperfection measurements taken on several back to back LSB specimens showed that the back to back bolting process is not likely to alter the imperfections, and the measured imperfections are well below the fabrication tolerance limits. Twelve large scale lateral buckling tests were conducted to investigate the behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs with various longitudinal fastener spacings under uniform moment conditions. Tests also included two single LSB specimens. Test results showed that the back to back LSBs gave higher moment capacities in comparison with single LSBs, and the fastener spacing influenced the ultimate moment capacities. As the fastener spacing was reduced the ultimate moment capacities of back to back LSBs increased. Finite element models of back to back LSBs with varying fastener spacings were then developed to conduct a detailed parametric study on the flexural behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs. Two finite element models were developed, namely experimental and ideal finite element models. The models included the complex contact behaviour between LSB web elements and intermittently fastened bolted connections along the web elements. They were validated by comparing their results with experimental results and numerical results obtained from an established buckling analysis program called THIN-WALL. These comparisons showed that the developed models could accurately predict both the elastic lateral distortional buckling moments and the non-linear ultimate moment capacities of back to back LSBs. Therefore the ideal finite element models incorporating ideal simply supported boundary conditions and uniform moment conditions were used in a detailed parametric study on the flexural behaviour of back to back LSB members. In the detailed parametric study, both elastic buckling and nonlinear analyses of back to back LSBs were conducted for 13 LSB sections with varying spans and fastener spacings. Finite element analysis results confirmed that the current design rules in AS/NZS 4600 (SA, 2005) are very conservative while the new design rules developed by Anapayan and Mahendran (2009a) for single LSB members were also found to be conservative. Thus new member capacity design rules were developed for back to back LSB members as a function of non-dimensional member slenderness. New empirical equations were also developed to aid in the calculation of elastic lateral distortional buckling moments of intermittently fastened back to back LSBs. Design guidelines were developed for the maximum fastener spacing of back to back LSBs in order to optimise the use of fasteners. A closer fastener spacing of span/6 was recommended for intermediate spans and some long spans where the influence of fastener spacing was found to be high. In the last phase of this research, a detailed investigation was conducted to investigate the potential use of different types of connections and stiffeners in improving the flexural strength of back to back LSB members. It was found that using transverse web stiffeners was the most cost-effective and simple strengthening method. It is recommended that web stiffeners are used at the supports and every third points within the span, and their thickness is in the range of 3 to 5 mm depending on the size of LSB section. The use of web stiffeners eliminated most of the lateral distortional buckling effects and hence improved the ultimate moment capacities. A suitable design equation was developed to calculate the elastic lateral buckling moments of back to back LSBs with the above recommended web stiffener configuration while the same design rules developed for unstiffened back to back LSBs were recommended to calculate the ultimate moment capacities.