On the identification of monetary (and other) shocks

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we construct a DSGE model which spells out explicitly the instrumentation of monetary policy. The interest rate is determined every period depending on the supply and demand for reserves which in turn are affected by fundamental shocks: unforeseeable changes in cash withdrawal, autonomous factors, technology and government spending. Unexpected changes in the monetary conditions of the economy are interpreted as monetary shocks. We show that these monetary shocks have the usual effects on economic activity without the need of imposing additional frictions as limited participation in asset markets or sticky prices. Second, we show that this view of monetary policy may have important consequences for empirical research. In the model, the contemporaneous correlations between interest rates, prices and output are due to the simultaneous effect of all fundamental shocks. We provide an example where these contemporaneous correlations may be misinterpreted as a Taylor rule. In addition, we use the sign of the impact responses of all shocks on output, prices and interest rates derived from the model to identify the sources of shocks in the data.

Growth Rate Estimation in the presence of Unit Roots

This study addresses the issue of the presence of a unit root on the growth rate estimation by the least-squares approach. We argue that when the log of a variable contains a unit root, i.e., it is not stationary then the growth rate estimate from the log-linear trend model is not a valid representation of the actual growth of the series. In fact, under such a situation, we show that the growth of the series is the cumulative impact of a stochastic process. As such the growth estimate from such a model is just a spurious representation of the actual growth of the series, which we refer to as a “pseudo growth rate”. Hence such an estimate should be interpreted with caution. On the other hand, we highlight that the statistical representation of a series as containing a unit root is not easy to separate from an alternative description which represents the series as fundamentally deterministic (no unit root) but containing a structural break. In search of a way around this, our study presents a survey of both the theoretical and empirical literature on unit root tests that takes into account possible structural breaks. We show that when a series is trendstationary with breaks, it is possible to use the log-linear trend model to obtain well defined estimates of growth rates for sub-periods which are valid representations of the actual growth of the series. Finally, to highlight the above issues, we carry out an empirical application whereby we estimate meaningful growth rates of real wages per worker for 51 industries from the organised manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973-2003, which are not only unbiased but also asymptotically efficient. We use these growth rate estimates to highlight the evolving inter-industry wage structure in India.

Pareto or log-normal? A recursive-truncation approach to the distribution of (all) cities

Traditionally, it is assumed that the population size of cities in a country follows a Pareto distribution. This assumption is typically supported by nding evidence of Zipf's Law. Recent studies question this nding, highlighting that, while the Pareto distribution may t reasonably well when the data is truncated at the upper tail, i.e. for the largest cities of a country, the log-normal distribution may apply when all cities are considered. Moreover, conclusions may be sensitive to the choice of a particular truncation threshold, a yet overlooked issue in the literature. In this paper, then, we reassess the city size distribution in relation to its sensitivity to the choice of truncation point. In particular, we look at US Census data and apply a recursive-truncation approach to estimate Zipf's Law and a non-parametric alternative test where we consider each possible truncation point of the distribution of all cities. Results con rm the sensitivity of results to the truncation point. Moreover, repeating the analysis over simulated data con rms the di culty of distinguishing a Pareto tail from the tail of a log-normal and, in turn, identifying the city size distribution as a false or a weak Pareto law.

Effect of magnesium chloride and guanidinum chloride on the extraction of components of extracellular matrix from chicken cartilage

In order to evaluate the effect of chaotropic agents on proteoglycan and non-collagenous proteins, chicken xiphoid cartilage was treated with guanidine-HCI and MgCl2 in different concentrations (1M to 5M), and different periods of time (12, 24, 48 and 72hr). The maximum yield of uronic acid was obtained with 3M MgCl2 (73.3 per cent). Concentrations of 4M and 5M of MgCl2 showed that much less uronic acid was removed, 55.3 per cent and 38.1 respectively. Extraction with 3M MgCl2 and 3M guanidine-HCl resulted better efficiency when performed for 48 hr. Analysis by SDS-PAGE of the extracts obtained with guanidine-HCl and MgCl, in different concentrations pointed out that most components are equally removed with the two solvents, showing that the extraction with MgCl2 is an alternative assay to remove non-collagenous proteins from extracellular matrix.

Age-specific incidence of all neoplasms after colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: Patients diagnosed with a specific neoplasm tend to have a subsequent excess risk of the same neoplasm. The age incidence of a second neoplasm at the same site is approximately constant with age, and consequently the relative risk is greater at younger age. It is unclear whether such a line of reasoning can be extended from a specific neoplasm to the incidence of all neoplasms in subjects diagnosed with a defined neoplasm. METHODS: We considered the age-specific incidence of all non-hormone-related epithelial neoplasms after a first primary colorectal cancer (n = 9542) in the Vaud Cancer Registry data set. RESULTS: In subjects with a previous colorectal cancer, the incidence rate of all other epithelial non-hormone-related cancers was stable around 800 per 100,000 between age 30 and 60 years, and rose only about twofold to reach 1685 at age 70 to 79 years and 1826 per 100,000 at age 80 years or older. After excluding synchronous cancers, the rise was only about 1.5-fold, that is, from about 700 to 1000. In the general population, the incidence rate of all epithelial non-hormone-related cancers was 29 per 100,000 at age 30 to 39 years, and rose 30-fold to 883 per 100,000 at age 70 to 79 years. Excluding colorectal cancers, the rise of all non-hormone-related cancers was from 360 per 100,000 at age 40 to 49 years to 940 at age 70 to 79 years after colorectal cancer, and from 90 to 636 per 100,000 in the general population (i.e., 2.6- vs. 7.1-fold). CONCLUSIONS: The rise of incidence with age of all epithelial non-hormone-related second cancers after colorectal cancer is much smaller than in the general population. This can possibly be related to the occurrence of a single mutational event in a population of susceptible individuals, although alternative models are plausible within the complexity of the process of carcinogenesis.

tagO is involved in the synthesis of all anionic cell-wall polymers in Bacillus subtilis 168.

Sequence homologies suggest that the Bacillus subtilis 168 tagO gene encodes UDP-N-acetylglucosamine:undecaprenyl-P N-acetylglucosaminyl 1-P transferase, the enzyme responsible for catalysing the first step in the synthesis of the teichoic acid linkage unit, i.e. the formation of undecaprenyl-PP-N-acetylglucosamine. Inhibition of tagO expression mediated by an IPTG-inducible P(spac) promoter led to the development of a coccoid cell morphology, a feature characteristic of mutants blocked in teichoic acid synthesis. Indeed, analyses of the cell-wall phosphate content, as well as the incorporation of radioactively labelled precursors, revealed that the synthesis of poly(glycerol phosphate) and poly(glucosyl N-acetylgalactosamine 1-phosphate), the two strain 168 teichoic acids known to share the same linkage unit, was affected. Surprisingly, under phosphate limitation, deficiency of TagO precludes the synthesis of teichuronic acid, which is normally induced under these conditions. The regulatory region of tagO, containing two partly overlapping sigma(A)-controlled promoters, is similar to that of sigA, the gene encoding the major sigma factor responsible for growth. Here, the authors discuss the possibility that TagO may represent a pivotal element in the multi-enzyme complexes responsible for the synthesis of anionic cell-wall polymers, and that it may play one of the key roles in balanced cell growth.

Concurrent versus simultaneous use of alcohol and non-medical use of prescription drugs: is simultaneous use worse for mental, social, and health issues?

Abstract This study investigated the difference between concurrent and simultaneous use of alcohol and non-medical use of prescription drugs (NMUPD) in relation to mental, social, and health issues. The 544 study participants of the Swiss ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) had a combined use of alcohol with NMUPD during the previous 12 months. Alcohol-related problems (i.e., dependence and consequences), as well as mental, social, and health concerns (i.e., depression, general mental/physical health, and social/health consequences), were assessed. The simultaneous use of alcohol and NMUPD proved to be a greater risk factor for mental, social, and health issues than concurrent use. This study adds information regarding simultaneous polydrug use, which results in distinct effects compared to concurrent use, including important social, psychosocial, and health-related consequences.

Percutaneous extraction of retained biliary T-tubes: a new technique.

Retained T-tubes are rare complications after biliary surgery. The authors present three cases of retained T-tubes in patients with transplanted liver that could not be removed by a standard manual traction. The authors describe a new simple percutaneous method that allows removal of these T-tubes without complication.

Simultaneous estimation of indirect and interaction effects using structural equation models

Interaction effects are usually modeled by means of moderated regression analysis. Structural equation models with non-linear constraints make it possible to estimate interaction effects while correcting formeasurement error. From the various specifications, Jöreskog and Yang's(1996, 1998), likely the most parsimonious, has been chosen and further simplified. Up to now, only direct effects have been specified, thus wasting much of the capability of the structural equation approach. This paper presents and discusses an extension of Jöreskog and Yang's specification that can handle direct, indirect and interaction effects simultaneously. The model is illustrated by a study of the effects of an interactive style of use of budgets on both company innovation and performance

Simultaneous infection of human host with genetically distinct isolates of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis

This study is the first report on genetic differences between isolates of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis from a single patient. We describe a simultaneous infection with genetically distinct isolates of P. brasiliensis in a patient with chronic paracoccidioidomycosis. The clinical isolates were obtained from lesions in different anatomical sites and were characterised by random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis. The RAPD technique can be helpful for distinguishing between clinical isolates. Different random primers were used to characterise these clinical isolates. The RAPD patterns allowed for differentiation between isolates and the construction of a phenetic tree, which showed more than 28% genetic variability in this fungal species, opening new possibilities for clinical studies of P. brasiliensis. Based on these results and preliminary clinical findings, we suggest that different genotypes of P. brasiliensis might infect the same patient, inducing the active form of the disease.

A RT-PCR method for selective amplification and phenotypic characterization of all three serotypes of Sabin-related polioviruses from viral mixtures

Outbreaks caused by vaccine-derived polioviruses are challenging the final eradication of paralytic poliomyelitis. Therefore, the surveillance of the acute flaccid paralysis cases based on poliovirus isolation and characterization remains an essential activity. Due to the use of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), mixtures containing more than one serotype of Sabin-related polioviruses are frequently isolated from clinical samples. Because each poliovirus isolate needs to be individually analyzed, we designed polymerase chain reaction primers that can selectively distinguish and amplify a genomic segment of the three Sabin-related poliovirus serotypes present in mixtures, thus, optimizing the diagnosis and providing prompt information to support epidemiologic actions.

Detection of all four dengue serotypes in Aedes aegypti female mosquitoes collected in a rural area in Colombia

The Aedes aegypti vector for dengue virus (DENV) has been reported in urban and periurban areas. The information about DENV circulation in mosquitoes in Colombian rural areas is limited, so we aimed to evaluate the presence of DENV in Ae. aegypti females caught in rural locations of two Colombian municipalities, Anapoima and La Mesa. Mosquitoes from 497 rural households in 44 different rural settlements were collected. Pools of about 20 Ae. aegypti females were processed for DENV serotype detection. DENV in mosquitoes was detected in 74% of the analysed settlements with a pool positivity rate of 62%. The estimated individual mosquito infection rate was 4.12% and the minimum infection rate was 33.3/1,000 mosquitoes. All four serotypes were detected; the most frequent being DENV-2 (50%) and DENV-1 (35%). Two-three serotypes were detected simultaneously in separate pools. This is the first report on the co-occurrence of natural DENV infection of mosquitoes in Colombian rural areas. The findings are important for understanding dengue transmission and planning control strategies. A potential latent virus reservoir in rural areas could spill over to urban areas during population movements. Detecting DENV in wild-caught adult mosquitoes should be included in the development of dengue epidemic forecasting models.