Groundwater age distributions at a public drinking water supply well field derived from multiple age tracers (⁸⁵Kr, ³H/³He, and ³⁹Ar)

Groundwater age is a key aspect of production well vulnerability. Public drinking water supply wells typically have long screens and are expected to produce a mixture of groundwater ages. The groundwater age distributions of seven production wells of the Holten well field (Netherlands) were estimated from tritium-helium (3H/3He), krypton-85 (85Kr), and argon-39 (39Ar), using a new application of a discrete age distribution model and existing mathematical models, by minimizing the uncertainty-weighted squared differences of modeled and measured tracer concentrations. The observed tracer concentrations fitted well to a 4-bin discrete age distribution model or a dispersion model with a fraction of old groundwater. Our results show that more than 75 of the water pumped by four shallow production wells has a groundwater age of less than 20 years and these wells are very vulnerable to recent surface contamination. More than 50 of the water pumped by three deep production wells is older than 60 years. 3H/3He samples from short screened monitoring wells surrounding the well field constrained the age stratification in the aquifer. The discrepancy between the age stratification with depth and the groundwater age distribution of the production wells showed that the well field preferentially pumps from the shallow part of the aquifer. The discrete groundwater age distribution model appears to be a suitable approach in settings where the shape of the age distribution cannot be assumed to follow a simple mathematical model, such as a production well field where wells compete for capture area.

High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa+, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa2+ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa2+ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data. The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa2+ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO2 increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa+ levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa+ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

Extension and Partitioning in an Oblique Subduction Zone, New Zealand: Constraints from Three-Dimensional Numerical Modeling

Contraction, strike slip, and extension displacements along the Hikurangi margin northeast of the North Island of New Zealand coincide with large lateral gradients in material properties. We use a finite- difference code utilizing elastic and elastic-plastic rheologies to build large- scale, three-dimensional numerical models which investigate the influence of material properties on velocity partitioning within oblique subduction zones. Rheological variation in the oblique models is constrained by seismic velocity and attenuation information available for the Hikurangi margin. We compare the effect of weakly versus strongly coupled subduction interfaces on the development of extension and the partitioning of velocity components for orthogonal and oblique convergence and include the effect of ponded sediments beneath the Raukumara Peninsula. Extension and velocity partitioning occur if the subduction interface is weak, but neither develops if the subduction interface is strong. The simple mechanical model incorporating rheological variation based on seismic observations produces kinematics that closely match those published from the Hikurangi margin. These include extension within the Taupo Volcanic Zone, uplift over ponded sediments, and dextral contraction to the south.

Calculating Basal Thermal Zones Beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet

A procedure is presented for using a simple flowline model to calculate the fraction of the bed that is thawed beneath present-day ice sheets, and therefore for mapping thawed, frozen, melting and freezing basal thermal zones. The procedure is based on the proposition, easily demonstrated, that variations in surface slope along ice flowlines are due primarily to variations in bed topography and ice-bed coupling, where ice-bed coupling for sheet flow is represented by the basal thawed fraction. This procedure is then applied to the central flowlines of flow bands on the Antarctic ice sheet where accumulation rates, surface elevations and bed topography are mapped with sufficient accuracy, and where sheet flow rather than stream flow prevails. In East Antarctica, the usual condition is a low thawed fraction in subglacial highlands, but a high thawed fraction in subglacial basins and where ice converges on ice streams. This is consistent with a greater depression of the basal melting temperature and a slower rate of conducting basal heat to the surface where ice is thick, and greater basal frictional heat production where ice flow is fast, as expected for steady-state flow. This correlation is reduced or even reversed where steady-state flow has been disrupted recently, notably where ice-stream surges produced the Dibble and Dalton Iceberg Tongues, both of which are now stagnating. In West Antarctica, for ice draining into the Pine Island Bay polynya of the Amundsen Sea, the basal thawed fraction is consistent with a prolonged and ongoing surge of Pine Island Glacier and with a recently initiated surge of Thwaites Glacier. For ice draining into the Ross Ice Shelf, long ice streams extend nearly to the West Antarctic ice divide. Over the rugged bed topography near the ice divide, no correlation consistent with steady-state sheet flow exists between ice thickness and the basal thawed fraction. The bed is wholly thawed beneath ice streams, even where stream flow is slow. This is consistent with ongoing gravitational collapse of ice entering the Ross Sea embayment and with unstable flow in the ice streams.

The Yanque prospect (Peru): from polymetallic Zn-Pb mineralization to a nonsulfide deposit

The Yanque nonsulfide Pb-Zn deposit (inferred resources 12.5 Mt @ 3.7% Pb and @ 3.5% Zn) is located in the Andahuaylas-Yauri ore province (Cuzco, southern Peru). The deposit occurs within a base metal mineralized district, centered on the medium-sized Dolores porphyry copper. A thorough geological, mineralogical and geochemical study has carried out in order to define: the relationships between the Dolores Cu-porphyry ore and the Yanque Zn-Pb polymetallic mineralization, and the characteristics of the economic nonsulfide concentrations. Both sedimentary and igneous rocks constitute the backbone of the Yanque-Dolores area. The sedimentary lithologies belong to the Soraya, Mara and Ferrobamba Fms. (upper Jurassic-middle Cretaceous). The Yanque orebody is hosted by the Mara Fm., which prevailingly consists of a siliciclastic sedimentary breccia. The original sulfide mineralization consisted of galena, pyrite and sphalerite. The host rock has been affected by a strong hydrothermal alteration, characterized by prevailing sericite/illite, as in the typical porphyry-related phyllic-argillic alteration stage, and by minor kaolinite, dolomite and quartz. Minor element geochemistry, characterized by Sb, As, Mn, Ag and locally also by Cu, points to magmatic-hydrothermal related mineralizing fluids. The Pb isotopic compositions from Dolores and Yanque sulfides are similar, and are typical of the Tertiary magmatically-derived ores in this part of Peru. The hydrothermally altered rocks at Yanque have the same Pb isotopic compositions as the sulfides, thus confirming the hypothesis that the Yanque primary Zn-Pb mineralization may have been produced by hydrothermal circulation related to the emplacement of the Dolores Cu-porphyry, as it is the case of other porphyry Cu systems associated with polymetallic mineralization elsewhere. However, no simple genetic model for the mineralization involving just one fluid circulation episode is able to explain the data. The Yanque economic nonsulfide ore association consists of sauconite, hemimorphite, smithsonite and cerussite, which result from the weathering and alteration of the original sulfide mineralization. Zinc is allocated mainly in sauconite (Zn-smectite), rather than in carbonates: a factor strictly related to the prevailing siliciclastic character of the host rock. Distinctive features of the Yanque orebody are the comparable ore grades for both Pb and Zn (3.5% Zn and 3.7% Pb), and the inverse supergene chemical zoning. In fact, contrary to other supergene ores of this type, zinc prevails in the top zone of the Yanque deposit, whereas lead content increases with depth. Considering the different mobility of the two metals in solution, it may be assumed that most of the primary zinc that was the source for the Yanque nonsulfides was originally located far from the position occupied by the galena mineralization, whose remnants have been observed on site. Zinc sulfides may have been originally contained in the eroded rock volumes that surrounded the actual deposit: the zinc-rich solutions have possibly migrated through the siliciclastic Mara Fm. and precipitated the nonsulfide minerals by porosity filling and replacement processes. In this sense, the Yanque secondary Zn-Pb deposit could be considered as a special type of “Exotic” mineralization.

Bipartite graphs and quasipositive surfaces

We present a simple combinatorial model for quasipositive surfaces and positive braids, based on embedded bipartite graphs. As a first application, we extend the well-known duality on standard diagrams of torus links to twisted torus links. We then introduce a combinatorial notion of adjacency for bipartite graph links and discuss its potential relation with the adjacency problem for plane curve singularities.

Terrestrial Radar Interferometric Measurement of Hillslope Deformation and Atmospheric Disturbances in the Illgraben Debris-Flow Catchment, Switzerland

We describe a method for rapid identification and precise quantification of slope deformation using a portable radar interferometer. A rockslide with creep-like behavior was identified in the rugged and inaccessible headwaters of the Illgraben debris-flow catchment, located in the Central Swiss Alps. The estimated volume of the moving rock mass was approximately 0.5 x 10(6) m(3) with a maximum daily (3-D) displacement rate of 3 mm. Fast scene acquisition in the order of 6 s/scene led to uniquely precise mapping of spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric phase delay. Observations led to a simple qualitative model for prediction of atmospheric disturbances using a simple model for solar radiation, which can be used for advanced campaign planning for short observation periods (hours to days).

Chow–Liu trees are sufficient predictive models for reproducing key features of functional networks of periictal EEG time-series

Seizure freedom in patients suffering from pharmacoresistant epilepsies is still not achieved in 20–30% of all cases. Hence, current therapies need to be improved, based on a more complete understanding of ictogenesis. In this respect, the analysis of functional networks derived from intracranial electroencephalographic (iEEG) data has recently become a standard tool. Functional networks however are purely descriptive models and thus are conceptually unable to predict fundamental features of iEEG time-series, e.g., in the context of therapeutical brain stimulation. In this paper we present some first steps towards overcoming the limitations of functional network analysis, by showing that its results are implied by a simple predictive model of time-sliced iEEG time-series. More specifically, we learn distinct graphical models (so called Chow–Liu (CL) trees) as models for the spatial dependencies between iEEG signals. Bayesian inference is then applied to the CL trees, allowing for an analytic derivation/prediction of functional networks, based on thresholding of the absolute value Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) matrix. Using various measures, the thus obtained networks are then compared to those which were derived in the classical way from the empirical CC-matrix. In the high threshold limit we find (a) an excellent agreement between the two networks and (b) key features of periictal networks as they have previously been reported in the literature. Apart from functional networks, both matrices are also compared element-wise, showing that the CL approach leads to a sparse representation, by setting small correlations to values close to zero while preserving the larger ones. Overall, this paper shows the validity of CL-trees as simple, spatially predictive models for periictal iEEG data. Moreover, we suggest straightforward generalizations of the CL-approach for modeling also the temporal features of iEEG signals.

Constraining planet structure from stellar chemistry: the cases of CoRoT-7, Kepler-10, and Kepler-93

Aims. We explore the possibility that the stellar relative abundances of different species can be used to constrain the bulk abundances of known transiting rocky planets. Methods. We use high resolution spectra to derive stellar parameters and chemical abundances for Fe, Si, Mg, O, and C in three stars hosting low mass, rocky planets: CoRoT-7, Kepler-10, and Kepler-93. These planets follow the same line along the mass-radius diagram, pointing toward a similar composition. The derived abundance ratios are compared with the solar values. With a simple stoichiometric model, we estimate the iron mass fraction in each planet, assuming stellar composition. Results. We show that in all cases, the iron mass fraction inferred from the mass-radius relationship seems to be in good agreement with the iron abundance derived from the host star's photospheric composition. Conclusions. The results suggest that stellar abundances can be used to add constraints on the composition of orbiting rocky planets.

Legal Change and the Social Value of Lawsuits

This paper integrates the literatures on the social value of lawsuits, the evolution of the law, and judicial preferences to evaluate the hypothesis that the law evolves toward efficiency. The setting is a simple accident model with costly litigation where the efficient law minimizes the sum of accident plus litigation costs. In the steady state equilibrium, the distribution of legal rules is not necessarily efficient but instead depends on a combination of selective litigation, judicial bias, and precedent.

Nonpoint Pollution Control: Inducing First-best Outcomes through the Use of Threats

In this paper we develop a simple economic model to analyze the use of a policy that combines a voluntary approach to controlling nonpoint-source pollution with a background threat of an ambient tax if the voluntary approach is unsuccessful in meeting a pre-specified environmental goal. We first consider the case where the policy is applied to a single farmer, and then extend the analysis to the case where the policy is applied to a group of farmers. We show that in either case such a policy can induce cost-minimizing abatement without the need for farm-specific information. In this sense, the combined policy approach is not only more effective in protecting environmental quality than a pure voluntary approach (which does not ensure that water quality goals are met) but also less costly than a pure ambient tax approach (since it entails lower information costs). However, when the policy is applied to a group of farmers, we show that there is a potential tradeoff in the design of the policy. In this context, lowering the cutoff level of pollution used for determining total tax payments increases the likely effectiveness of the combined approach but also increases the potential for free riding. By setting the cutoff level equal to the target level of pollution, the regulator can eliminate free riding and ensure that cost-minimizing abatement is the unique Nash equilibrium under which the target is met voluntarily. However, this cutoff level also ensures that zero voluntary abatement is a Nash equilibrium. In addition, with this cutoff level the equilibrium under which the target is met voluntarily will not strictly dominate the equilibrium under which it is not. We show that all results still hold if the background threat instead takes the form of reducing government subsidies if a pre-specified environmental goal is not met.

Using spatial linear models with SAR and CAR structure to examine Texas lung cancer incidence rates

Scholars have found that socioeconomic status was one of the key factors that influenced early-stage lung cancer incidence rates in a variety of regions. This thesis examined the association between median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas counties. A total of 254 individual counties in Texas with corresponding lung cancer incidence rates from 2004 to 2008 and median household incomes in 2006 were collected from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance System. A simple linear model and spatial linear models with two structures, Simultaneous Autoregressive Structure (SAR) and Conditional Autoregressive Structure (CAR), were used to link median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas. The residuals of the spatial linear models were analyzed with Moran's I and Geary's C statistics, and the statistical results were used to detect similar lung cancer incidence rate clusters and disease patterns in Texas.^

Growth rates and stable carbon and oxygen isotope record of corals from the Red Sea

Monthly delta18O records of 2 coral colonies (Porites cf. lutea and P. cf. nodifera) from different localities (Aqaba and Eilat) from the northern Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea, were calibrated with recorded sea surface temperatures (SST) between 1988 and 2000. The results show high correlation coefficients between SST and delta18O. Seasonal variations of coral delta18O in both locations could explain 91% of the recorded SST. Different delta18O/SST relations from both colonies and from the same colonies were obtained, indicating that delta18O from coral skeletons were subject to an extension rate effect. Significant delta18O depletions are associated with high extension rates and higher values with low extension rates. The relation between coral skeletal delta18O and extension rate is not linear and can be described by a simple exponential model. An inverse relationship extends over extension rates from 1 to 5 mm/yr, while for more rapidly growing corals and portions of colonies the relation is constant and the extension rate does not appear to have a significant effect. We recommend that delta18O values be obtained from fast-growing corals or from portions in which the isotopic disequilibrium is fairly constant (extension rate >5 mm/yr). The results show that interspecific differences in corals may produce a significant delta18O profile offset between 2 colonies that is independent of environmental and extension-rate effects. We conclude that the rate of skeletal extension and the species of coral involved have an important influence on coral delta18O and must be considered when using delta18O records for paleoclimatic reconstructions.

Aprender a leer y escribir durante la última dictadura

El objetivo general de esta ponencia es dar a conocer cómo se enseñaba a leer y escribir en la provincia de Buenos Aires durante la última dictadura y qué elementos condicionaban la enseñanza. Se analizan diseños curriculares del período y anteriores, programas, libros de texto, políticas legislativas y circulares. La estrategia cualitativa se sirve también de una técnica conversacional: la entrevista en profundidad y no estructurada a antiguas docentes del primer ciclo. Concluimos, a partir del caso de la enseñanza de la lecto-escritura, en que no es posible establecer una simple imbricación en todas las esferas -práctica y teoría pedagógica, curriculum, rol del docente, formación intelectual del alumno, etc.- entre la estrategia política y la política educativa dictatorial. El texto pretende generar una reflexión sobre los peligros de utilizar una cronología política abocada a las rupturas al hacer historia de la educación.

Aprender a leer y escribir durante la última dictadura

El objetivo general de esta ponencia es dar a conocer cómo se enseñaba a leer y escribir en la provincia de Buenos Aires durante la última dictadura y qué elementos condicionaban la enseñanza. Se analizan diseños curriculares del período y anteriores, programas, libros de texto, políticas legislativas y circulares. La estrategia cualitativa se sirve también de una técnica conversacional: la entrevista en profundidad y no estructurada a antiguas docentes del primer ciclo. Concluimos, a partir del caso de la enseñanza de la lecto-escritura, en que no es posible establecer una simple imbricación en todas las esferas -práctica y teoría pedagógica, curriculum, rol del docente, formación intelectual del alumno, etc.- entre la estrategia política y la política educativa dictatorial. El texto pretende generar una reflexión sobre los peligros de utilizar una cronología política abocada a las rupturas al hacer historia de la educación.