Assessing a statistical inquiry

As statistical education becomes more firmly embedded in the school curriculum and its value across the curriculum is recognised, attention moves from knowing procedures, such as calculating a mean or drawing a graph, to understanding the purpose of a statistical investigation in decision making in many disciplines. As students learn to complete the stages of an investigation, the question of meaningful assessment of the process arises. This paper considers models for carrying out a statistical inquiry and, based on a four-phase model, creates a developmental squence that can be used for the assessment of outcomes from each of the four phases as well as for the complete inquiry. The developmental sequence is based on the SOLO model, focussing on the "observed" outcomes during the inquiry process.

Confronting expectation in grade 4: Tossing two coins

This study focuses on the experiences of 91 Grade 4 students who had been introduced to expectation and variation through trials of tossing a single coin many times. They were then given two coins to toss simultaneously and asked to state their expectation of the chances for the possible outcomes, in a similar manner expressed for a single coin. This paper documents the journey of the students in discovering that generally their initial expectation for two coins was incorrect and that despite variation, a large number of tosses could confirm a new expectation.

Expectation and variation with a virtual die

By the time students reach the middle years they have experienced many chance activities based on dice. Common among these are rolling one die to explore the relationship of frequency and theoretical probability, and rolling two dice and summing the outcomes to consider their probabilities. Although dice may be considered overused by some, the advantage they offer is a familiar context within which to explore much more complex concepts. If the basic chance mechanism of the device is understood, it is possible to enter quickly into an arena of more complex concepts. This is what happened with a two hour activity engaged in by four classes of Grade 6 students in the same school. The activity targeted the concepts of variation and expectation. The teachers held extended discussions with their classes on variation and expectation at the beginning of the activity, with students contributing examples of the two concepts from their own experience. These notions are quite sophisticated for Grade 6, but the underlying concepts describe phenomena that students encounter every day. For example, time varies continuously; sporting results vary from game to game; the maximum temperature varies from day to day. However, there is an expectation about tomorrow’s maximum temperature based on the expert advice from the weather bureau. There may also be an expectation about a sporting result based on the participants’ previous results. It is this juxtaposition that makes life interesting. Variation hence describes the differences we see in phenomena around us. In a scenario displaying variation, expectation describes the effort to characterise or summarise the variation and perhaps make a prediction about the message arising from the scenario. The explicit purpose of the activity described here was to use the familiar scenario of rolling a die to expose these two concepts. Because the students had previously experienced rolling physical dice they knew instinctively about the variation that occurs across many rolls and about the theoretical expectation that each side should “come up” one-sixth of the time. They had observed the instances of the concepts in action, but had not consolidated the underlying terminology to describe it. As the two concepts are so fundamental to understanding statistics, we felt it would be useful to begin building in the familiar environment of rolling a die. Because hand-held dice limit the explorations students can undertake, the classes used the soft-ware TinkerPlots (Konold & Miller, 2011) to simulate rolling a die multiple times.

Evaluation of a school-based creative arts therapy programme for adolescents from refugee backgrounds

Creative arts therapy programs have been identified as effective interventions with adolescents affected by adversity. The current study provided a controlled trial of creative arts therapy to address the psychosocial needs of students from refugee backgrounds. Forty-two students participated in a therapy trial, comprising an intervention and control group. Mental health and behavioural difficulties were assessed pre and post intervention. Hopkins Symptoms Checklist-25 (HSCL-25) and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) were used to assess wellbeing. Findings suggested an effect for a reduction in behavioural difficulties for the treatment group. A significant reduction in emotional symptoms was found for the treatment group. Findings provide empirical support for school-based creative arts therapy interventions specific to refugee young people.

Synthesis and luminescent properties of star-burst D-Pi-A compounds based on 1,3,5-triazine core and carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arms

Two new star-burst compounds based on 1,3,5-triazine core and carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arms (1a and 1b) were synthesized and characterized. Their photophysical properties were investigated systematically via spectroscopic and theoretical methods. Both compounds exhibit strong 1π–π⁎ transitions in the UV region and intense 1π–π⁎/intramolecular charge transfer (1ICT) absorption bands in the UV–vis region. Introducing the carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arm on the 1,3,5-triazine core causes a slight bathochromic shift and enhanced molar extinction coefficient of the 1π–π⁎/1ICT transition band. Both compounds are emissive in solution at room temperature and 77 K, which exhibit pronounced positive solvatochromic effect. The emitting state could be ascribed to 1ICT state in more polar solvent, and 1π–π⁎ state in low-polarity solvent. The high emission quantum yields (Φem=0.90~1.0) of 1a and 1b (in hexane and toluene) make them potential candidates as efficient light-emitting materials. The spectroscopic studies and theoretical calculations indicate that the photophysical properties of these compounds can be tuned by the carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arm, which would also be useful for rational design of photofunctional materials.

Vitamin D deficiency in patients with malignancy in Brisbane

PURPOSE: This study aims to investigate the prevalence and factors predictive of vitamin D deficiency in patients with malignancy in Brisbane, Australia (latitude 27° S). METHODS: This is a prospective cross-sectional study measuring serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) in 100 subjects with non-haematological cancer at least 18 years of age not taking vitamin D supplements attending a day oncology unit and oncology/palliative care inpatient ward in Brisbane, Australia. RESULTS: Thirty-seven per cent of outpatient and 49 % of inpatient subjects respectively were vitamin D deficient. Functional status was predictive of low vitamin D levels. CONCLUSION: There was a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in patients with cancer in Brisbane, Australia.

Introducing the practice of statistics: are we environmentally friendly?

The practice of statistics is the focus of the world in which professional statisticians live. To understand meaningfully what this practice is about, students need to engage in it themselves. Acknowledging the limitations of a genuine classroom setting, this study attempted to expose four classes of year 5 students (n=91) to an authentic experience of the practice of statistics. Setting an overall context of people’s habits that are considered environmentally friendly, the students sampled their class and set criteria for being environmentally friendly based on questions from the Australian Bureau of Statistics CensusAtSchool site. They then analysed the data and made decisions, acknowledging their degree of certainty, about three populations based on their criteria: their class, year 5 students in their school and year 5 students in Australia. The next step was to collect a random sample the size of their class from an Australian Bureau of Statistics ‘population’, analyse it and again make a decision about Australian year 5 students. At the end, they suggested what further research they might do. The analysis of students’ responses gives insight into primary students’ capacity to appreciate and understand decision making, and to participate in the practice of statistics, a topic that has received very little attention in the literature. Based on the total possible score of 23 from student workbook entries, 80 % of students achieved at least a score of 11.

The revolution in human monogenic disease mapping

The successful completion of the Human Genome Project (HGP) was an unprecedented scientific advance that has become an invaluable resource in the search for genes that cause monogenic and common (polygenic) diseases. Prior to the HGP, linkage analysis had successfully mapped many disease genes for monogenic disorders; however, the limitations of this approach were particularly evident for identifying causative genes in rare genetic disorders affecting lifespan and/or reproductive fitness, such as skeletal dysplasias. In this review, we illustrate the challenges of mapping disease genes in such conditions through the ultra-rare disorder fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP) and we discuss the advances that are being made through current massively parallel (“next generation”) sequencing (MPS) technologies.

Genetics of rheumatoid arthritis contributes to biology and drug discovery

A major challenge in human genetics is to devise a systematic strategy to integrate disease-associated variants with diverse genomic and biological data sets to provide insight into disease pathogenesis and guide drug discovery for complex traits such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA)1. Here we performed a genome-wide association study meta-analysis in a total of >100,000 subjects of European and Asian ancestries (29,880 RA cases and 73,758 controls), by evaluating ~10 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We discovered 42 novel RA risk loci at a genome-wide level of significance, bringing the total to 101 (refs 2, 3, 4). We devised an in silico pipeline using established bioinformatics methods based on functional annotation5, cis-acting expression quantitative trait loci6 and pathway analyses7, 8, 9—as well as novel methods based on genetic overlap with human primary immunodeficiency, haematological cancer somatic mutations and knockout mouse phenotypes—to identify 98 biological candidate genes at these 101 risk loci. We demonstrate that these genes are the targets of approved therapies for RA, and further suggest that drugs approved for other indications may be repurposed for the treatment of RA. Together, this comprehensive genetic study sheds light on fundamental genes, pathways and cell types that contribute to RA pathogenesis, and provides empirical evidence that the genetics of RA can provide important information for drug discovery.

Serum vitamin D levels are lower in Australian children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes than in children without diabetes

Vitamin D is synthesised in the skin through the action of UVB radiation (sunlight), and 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25OHD) measured in serum as a marker of vitamin D status. Several studies, mostly conducted in high latitudes, have shown an association between type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and low serum 25OHD. We conducted a case-control study to determine whether, in a sub-tropical environment with abundant sunlight (latitude 27.5°S), children with T1DM have lower serum vitamin D than children without diabetes. Fifty-six children with T1DM (14 newly diagnosed) and 46 unrelated control children participated in the study. Serum 25OHD, 1,25-dihydroxy vitamin D (1,25(OH)2D) and selected biochemical indices were measured. Vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms Taq1, Fok1, and Apa1 were genotyped. Fitzpatrick skin classification, self-reported daily hours of outdoor exposure, and mean UV index over the 35d prior to blood collection were recorded. Serum 25OHD was lower in children with T1DM (n=56) than in controls (n=46) [mean (95%CI)=78.7 (71.8-85.6) nmol/L vs. 91.4 (83.5-98.7) nmol/L, p=0.02]. T1DM children had lower self-reported outdoor exposure and mean UV exposure, but no significant difference in distribution of VDR polymorphisms. 25OHD remained lower in children with T1DM after covariate adjustment. Children newly diagnosed with T1DM had lower 1,25(OH)2D [median (IQR)=89 (68-122) pmol/L] than controls [121 (108-159) pmol/L, p=0.03], or children with established diabetes [137 (113-153) pmol/L, p=0.01]. Children with T1DM have lower 25OHD than controls, even in an environment of abundant sunlight. Whether low vitamin D is a risk factor or consequence of T1DM is unknown. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Genome-wide meta-analysis identifies 56 bone mineral density loci and reveals 14 loci associated with risk of fracture

Bone mineral density (BMD) is the most widely used predictor of fracture risk. We performed the largest meta-analysis to date on lumbar spine and femoral neck BMD, including 17 genome-wide association studies and 32,961 individuals of European and east Asian ancestry. We tested the top BMD-associated markers for replication in 50,933 independent subjects and for association with risk of low-trauma fracture in 31,016 individuals with a history of fracture (cases) and 102,444 controls. We identified 56 loci (32 new) associated with BMD at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8). Several of these factors cluster within the RANK-RANKL-OPG, mesenchymal stem cell differentiation, endochondral ossification and Wnt signaling pathways. However, we also discovered loci that were localized to genes not known to have a role in bone biology. Fourteen BMD-associated loci were also associated with fracture risk (P < 5 × 10−4, Bonferroni corrected), of which six reached P < 5 × 10−8, including at 18p11.21 (FAM210A), 7q21.3 (SLC25A13), 11q13.2 (LRP5), 4q22.1 (MEPE), 2p16.2 (SPTBN1) and 10q21.1 (DKK1). These findings shed light on the genetic architecture and pathophysiological mechanisms underlying BMD variation and fracture susceptibility.

A recurrent mutation in the BMP type I receptor ACVR1 causes inherited and sporadic fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva

Fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva (FOP) is a rare autosomal dominant disorder of skeletal malformations and progressive extraskeletal ossification. We mapped FOP to chromosome 2q23-24 by linkage analysis and identified an identical heterozygous mutation (617G→A; R206H) in the glycine-serine (GS) activation domain of ACVR1, a BMP type I receptor, in all affected individuals examined. Protein modeling predicts destabilization of the GS domain, consistent with constitutive activation of ACVR1 as the underlying cause of the ectopic chondrogenesis, osteogenesis and joint fusions seen in FOP.

Localization of type 1 diabetes susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6 is associated with susceptibility to more common diseases than any other region of the human genome, including almost all disorders classified as autoimmune. In type 1 diabetes the major genetic susceptibility determinants have been mapped to the MHC class II genes HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 (refs 1–3), but these genes cannot completely explain the association between type 1 diabetes and the MHC region4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Owing to the region's extreme gene density, the multiplicity of disease-associated alleles, strong associations between alleles, limited genotyping capability, and inadequate statistical approaches and sample sizes, which, and how many, loci within the MHC determine susceptibility remains unclear. Here, in several large type 1 diabetes data sets, we analyse a combined total of 1,729 polymorphisms, and apply statistical methods—recursive partitioning and regression...

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.