Youth unemployment outflow rates and labor market programs: Australian evidence

A matching function methodology is used to investigate the macroeconomic effects of labor market program (LMP) commencements on youth unemployment outflows in Australia using unpublished data that classify commencements and outflows by duration of unemployment. The results indicate that LMPs have had significant effects on outflows from short-term unemployment. There is a net positive effect from LMP commencements on short-term unemployed female outflow rates. However; females experienced negative spillover effects from male LMP commencements. These spillover effects appear to be associated with wage subsidy programs and suggest the net impact Of such programs may have been overstated in previous studies.

Seasonal Effects on Transient Evoked Otoacoustic Emission Screening Outcomes in Infants versus 6-Year-Old Children

The purpose of this study was to compare transient evoked otoacoustic emission (TEOAE) screening outcomes (pass/fail) across the seasons (spring, autumn, and winter) between infants and schoolchildren. A total of 526 infants (275 boys, 251 girls) with a mean age of 2.0 months (SD = 0.38 months) and 975 schoolchildren (513 boys, 462 girls) with a mean age of 6.2 years (SD = 0.36 years) were screened using the ILO Otodynamics Quickscreen program. The same TEOAE pass/fail criterion was applied to the two groups. The results indicated a significant difference in pass rates between infants (91.2% of 1052 ears) and schoolchildren (86.0% of 1950 ears). A seasonal effect was found only for schoolchildren, with a significantly lower pass rate in winter than in spring or autumn. There was no difference in pass rates between spring and autumn. Implications for the seasonal effect on TEOAE screening outcomes for infants and schoolchildren are discussed.

Novel miniaturized systems in high-throughput screening

High-throughput screening (HTS) using high-density microplates is the primary method for the discovery of novel lead candidate molecules. However, new strategies that eschew 2D microplate technology, including technologies that enable mass screening of targets against large combinatorial libraries, have the potential to greatly increase throughput and decrease unit cost. This review presents an overview of state-of-the-art microplate-based HTS technology and includes a discussion of emerging miniaturized systems for HTS. We focus on new methods of encoding combinatorial libraries that promise throughputs of as many as 100 000 compounds per second.

A refinement calculus for logic programs

Existing refinement calculi provide frameworks for the stepwise development of imperative programs from specifications. This paper presents a refinement calculus for deriving logic programs. The calculus contains a wide-spectrum logic programming language, including executable constructs such as sequential conjunction, disjunction, and existential quantification, as well as specification constructs such as general predicates, assumptions and universal quantification. A declarative semantics is defined for this wide-spectrum language based on executions. Executions are partial functions from states to states, where a state is represented as a set of bindings. The semantics is used to define the meaning of programs and specifications, including parameters and recursion. To complete the calculus, a notion of correctness-preserving refinement over programs in the wide-spectrum language is defined and refinement laws for developing programs are introduced. The refinement calculus is illustrated using example derivations and prototype tool support is discussed.

Relationships between nutrition screening checklists and the health and well-being of older Australian women

Objectives: To examine associations between nutrition screening checklists and the health of older women. Design: Cross-sectional postal survey including measures of health and health service utilisation, as well as the Australian Nutrition Screening Initiative (ANSI), adapted from the Nutrition Screening Initiative (NSI). Setting: Australia, 1996. Subjects: In total, 12 939 women aged 70-75 years randomly selected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Results: Responses to individual items in the ANSI checklist, and ANSI and NSI scores, were associated with measures of health and health service utilisation. Women with high ANSI and NSI scores had poorer physical and mental health, higher health care utilisation and were less likely to be in the acceptable weight range. The performance of an unweighted score (TSI) was also examined and showed similar results. Whereas ANSI classified 30% of the women as 'high-risk', only 13% and 12% were classified as 'high-risk' by the NSI and TSI, respectively. However, for identifying women with body mass index outside the acceptable range, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values for all of these checklists were less than 60%. Conclusions: Higher scores on both the ANSI and NSI are associated with poorer health. The simpler unweighted method of scoring the ANSI (TSI) showed better discrimination for the identification of 'at risk' women than the weighted ANSI method. The predictive value of individual items and the checklist scores need to be examined longitudinally.

Comparison of two population pharmacokinetic programs, NONMEM and P-PHARM, for tacrolimus

Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

Sensitivity and specificity of pooled faecal culture and serology as flock-screening tests for detection of ovine paratuberculosis in Australia

The flock-level sensitivity of pooled faecal culture and serological testing using AGID for the detection of ovine Johne's disease-infected flocks were estimated using non-gold-standard methods. The two tests were compared in an extensive field trial in 296 flocks in New South Wales during 1998. In each flock, a sample of sheep was selected and tested for ovine Johne's disease using both the AGID and pooled faecal culture. The flock-specificity of pooled faecal culture also was estimated from results of surveillance and market-assurance testing in New South Wales. The overall flock-sensitivity of pooled faecal culture was 92% (95% CI: 82.4 and 97.4%) compared to 61% (50.5 and 70.9%) for serology (assuming that both tests were 100% specific). In low-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalence

Benefits, harms and costs of screening mammography in women 70 years and over: a systematic review

Objective: To assess the (i) benefits, (ii) harms and (iii) costs of continuing mammographic screening for women 70 years and over. Data sources and synthesis: (i) We conducted a MEDLINE search (1966 - July 2000) for decision-analytic models estimating life-expectancy gains from screening in older women. The five studies meeting the inclusion criteria were critically appraised using standard criteria. We estimated relative benefit from each model's estimate of effectiveness of screening in older women relative to that in women aged 50-69 years using the same model. (ii) With data from BreastScreen Queensland, we constructed balance sheets of the consequences of screening for women in 10-year age groups (40-49 to 80-89 years), and (iii) we used a validated model to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of extending screening to women 70 years and over. Results: For women aged 70-79 years, the relative benefit was estimated as 40%-72%, and 18%-62% with adjustment for the impact of screening on quality of life. For women over 80 years the relative benefit was about a third, and with quality-of-life adjustment only 14%, that in women aged 50-69 years. (ii) Of 10 000 Australian women participating in ongoing screening, about 400 are recalled for further testing, and, depending on age, about 70-112 undergo biopsy and about 19-80 cancers are detected. (iii) Cost-effectiveness estimates for extending the upper age limit for mammographic screening from 69 to 79 years range from $8119 to $27 751 per quality-adjusted life-year saved, which compares favourably with extending screening to women aged 40-49 years (estimated at between $24 000 and $65 000 per life-year saved). Conclusions: Women 70 years and over, in consultation with their healthcare providers, may want to decide for themselves whether to continue mammographic screening. Decision-support materials are needed for women in this age group.

Routine ultrasound screening in diabetic pregnancies

Objectives To assess the detection rate of congenital fetal malformations and specific problems related to routine ultrasound screening in women with pre-existing diabetes. Methods A retrospective study was carried out to assess the performance of routine ultrasound screening in women with pre-existing diabetes (Types 1 and 2) within a tertiary institution. The incidence, type and risk factors for congenital fetal malformations were determined. The detection rate of fetal anomalies for diabetic women was compared with that for the low-risk population. Factors affecting these detection rates were evaluated. Results During the study period, 12 169 low-risk pregnant women and 130 women with pre-existing diabetes had routine ultrasound screening performed within the institution. A total of 10 major anomalies (7.7%) and three minor anomalies (2.3%) were present in the fetuses of the diabetic women. Central nervous system and cardiovascular system anomalies accounted for 60% of the major anomalies. Peri-conceptional hemoglobin A 1 c of more than 9% was associated with a high prevalence of major anomalies (14311000). Women who had fetuses with major anomalies bad a significantly higher incidence of obesity (78% vs. 37%; P < 0.05). Ultrasound examination of these diabetic pregnancies showed high incidences of suboptimal image quality (37%), incomplete examinations, and repeat examinations (17%). Compared to the 'low-risk' non-diabetic population from the same institution, the relative risk for a major congenital anomaly among the diabetic women was 5.9-fold higher (95% confidence interval, 2.9-11.9). The detection rate for major fetal anomalies was significantly lower for diabetic women (30% vs. 73%; P < 0.01), and the mean body mass index for the diabetic group was significantly higher (29 vs. 23 kg/m(2); P < 0.001). Conclusion The incidence of congenital anomalies is higher in diabetic pregnancies. Unfortunately, the detection rate for fetal anomalies by antenatal ultrasound scan was significantly, worse than that for the low-risk population. This is likely to be related to the maternal body habitus and unsatisfactory examinations. Methods to overcome these difficulties are discussed.

Concordance of iron indices in homozygote and heterozygote sibling pairs in hemochromatosis families: implications for family screening

Background/Aims: Concordance of iron indices between same sex siblings homozygous for the cysteine-to-tyrosine substitution at amino acid 282 (C282Y) mutation suggests that the variable phenotype in hereditary hemochromatosis is caused by genetic factors. Concordance of iron indices between same-sex heterozygous sibling pairs would provide further evidence of genetic modifiers of disease expression, and guidance for family screening strategies of subjects heterozygous for the C282Y mutation. Methods: We compared the iron indices of 35 C282Y homozygous and 35 C282Y heterozygous same-sex sibling pairs. To clarify whether concordance between siblings was due to environmental or genetic factors we compared the iron indices of 164 C282Y homozygous-normal, same-sex dizygotic twins. Results: Serum ferritin (r = 0.50, P = 0.003), hepatic iron concentration (r = 0.61, P = 0.025) and hepatic iron index (r = 0.67, P = 0.01) were highly concordant in C282Y homozygotes. Heterozygote siblings were concordant for serum ferritin (r = 0.76, P = 0.0001) and transferrin saturation (r = 0.79, P = 0.0001). Homozygote-normal same-sex dizygotic twins were concordant for serum ferritin (r = 0.62, P = 0.0001) but not for transferrin saturation. Conclusions: Concordance of iron indices exists in C282Y homozygote and heterozygote sibling pairs. Siblings of expressing C282Y heterozygotes require phenotypic assessment. These data provide evidence for modifying genes influencing disease expression in hemochromatosis. (C) 2002 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.