IS THE U.S. SHALE GAS BOOM HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE EUROPEAN GAS MARKET?

This thesis focuses on the impact of the American shale gas boom on the European natural gas market. The study presents different tests in order to analyze the dynamics of natural gas prices in the U.S., U.K. and German natural gas market. The question of cointegration between these different markets are analyzed using several tests. More specifically, the ADF tests for the presence of a unit root. The error correction model test and the Johansen cointegration procedure are applied in order to accept or reject the hypothesis of an integrated market. The results suggest no evidence of cointegration between these markets. There currently is no evidence of an impact of the U.S. shale gas boom on the European market.

Traffic-Adaptive and Link-Quality-Aware Communication in Wireless Sensor Networks

This paper is a summary of the main contribu- tions of the PhD thesis published in [1]. The main research contributions of the thesis are driven by the research question how to design simple, yet efficient and robust run-time adaptive resource allocation schemes within the commu- nication stack of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) nodes. The thesis addresses several problem domains with con- tributions on different layers of the WSN communication stack. The main contributions can be summarized as follows: First, a a novel run-time adaptive MAC protocol is intro- duced, which stepwise allocates the power-hungry radio interface in an on-demand manner when the encountered traffic load requires it. Second, the thesis outlines a metho- dology for robust, reliable and accurate software-based energy-estimation, which is calculated at network run- time on the sensor node itself. Third, the thesis evaluates several Forward Error Correction (FEC) strategies to adap- tively allocate the correctional power of Error Correcting Codes (ECCs) to cope with timely and spatially variable bit error rates. Fourth, in the context of TCP-based communi- cations in WSNs, the thesis evaluates distributed caching and local retransmission strategies to overcome the perfor- mance degrading effects of packet corruption and trans- mission failures when transmitting data over multiple hops. The performance of all developed protocols are eval- uated on a self-developed real-world WSN testbed and achieve superior performance over selected existing ap- proaches, especially where traffic load and channel condi- tions are suspect to rapid variations over time.

Evidence of direct detection of interstellar deuterium in the local interstellar medium by IBEX

We report the first in situ measurements of neutral deuterium originating in the local interstellar medium (LISM) in Earth’s orbit. These measurements were performed with the IBEX-Lo camera on NASA’s interstellar boundary explorer (IBEX) satellite. All data from the spring observation periods of 2009 through 2011 have been analysed. In the three years of the IBEX mission time, the observation geometry and orbit allowed for a total observation time of 115.3 days for the LISM. However, the effects of the spinning spacecraft and the stepping through 8 energy channels mean that we are only observing the interstellar wind for a total time of 1.44 days, in which 2 counts for interstellar deuterium were collected. We report here a conservative number, because a possibility of systematic error or additional noise, though eliminated in our analysis to the best of our knowledge, only supports detection at a 1-sigma level. From these observations, we derive a ratio D/H = (5.8 ± 4.4) × 10-4 at 1 AU. After modelling the transport and loss of D and H from the termination shock to Earth’s orbit, we find that our result of D/HLISM = (1.6 ± 1.2) × 10-5 agrees with D/HLIC = (1.6 ± 0.4) × 10-5 for the local interstellar cloud. This weak interstellar signal is extracted from a strong terrestrial background signal consisting of sputter products from the sensor’s conversion surface. As reference, we accurately measure the terrestrial D/H ratio in these sputtered products and then discriminate this terrestrial background source. Because of the diminishing D and H signal at Earth’s orbit during the rising solar activity due to photoionisation losses and increased photon pressure, our result demonstrates that in situ measurements of interstellar deuterium in the inner heliosphere are only possible during solar minimum conditions.

Mechanisms of cell competition: Themes and variations

Cell competition is the short-range elimination of slow-dividing cells through apoptosis when confronted with a faster growing population. It is based on the comparison of relative cell fitness between neighboring cells and is a striking example of tissue adaptability that could play a central role in developmental error correction and cancer progression in both Drosophila melanogaster and mammals. Cell competition has led to the discovery of multiple pathways that affect cell fitness and drive cell elimination. The diversity of these pathways could reflect unrelated phenomena, yet recent evidence suggests some common wiring and the existence of a bona fide fitness comparison pathway.

Validation of middle-atmospheric campaign-based water vapour measured by the ground-based microwave radiometer MIAWARA-C

Middle atmospheric water vapour can be used as a tracer for dynamical processes. It is mainly measured by satellite instruments and ground-based microwave radiometers. Ground-based instruments capable of measuring middle-atmospheric water vapour are sparse but valuable as they complement satellite measurements, are relatively easy to maintain and have a long lifetime. MIAWARA-C is a ground-based microwave radiometer for middle-atmospheric water vapour designed for use on measurement campaigns for both atmospheric case studies and instrument intercomparisons. MIAWARA-C's retrieval version 1.1 (v1.1) is set up in a such way as to provide a consistent data set even if the instrument is operated from different locations on a campaign basis. The sensitive altitude range for v1.1 extends from 4 hPa (37 km) to 0.017 hPa (75 km). For v1.1 the estimated systematic error is approximately 10% for all altitudes. At lower altitudes it is dominated by uncertainties in the calibration, with altitude the influence of spectroscopic and temperature uncertainties increases. The estimated random error increases with altitude from 5 to 25%. MIAWARA-C measures two polarisations of the incident radiation in separate receiver channels, and can therefore provide two measurements of the same air mass with independent instrumental noise. The standard deviation of the difference between the profiles obtained from the two polarisations is in excellent agreement with the estimated random measurement error of v1.1. In this paper, the quality of v1.1 data is assessed for measurements obtained at two different locations: (1) a total of 25 months of measurements in the Arctic (Sodankylä, 67.37° N, 26.63° E) and (2) nine months of measurements at mid-latitudes (Zimmerwald, 46.88° N, 7.46° E). For both locations MIAWARA-C's profiles are compared to measurements from the satellite experiments Aura MLS and MIPAS. In addition, comparisons to ACE-FTS and SOFIE are presented for the Arctic and to the ground-based radiometer MIAWARA for the mid-latitude campaigns. In general, all intercomparisons show high correlation coefficients, confirming the ability of MIAWARA-C to monitor temporal variations of the order of days. The biases are generally below 13% and within the estimated systematic uncertainty of MIAWARA-C. No consistent wet or dry bias is identified for MIAWARA-C. In addition, comparisons to the reference instruments indicate the estimated random error of v1.1 to be a realistic measure of the random variation on the retrieved profile between 45 and 70 km.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

The mass-hierarchy and CP-violation discovery reach of the LBNO long-baseline neutrino experiment

The next generation neutrino observatory proposed by the LBNO collaboration will address fundamental questions in particle and astroparticle physics. The experiment consists of a far detector, in its first stage a 20 kt LAr double phase TPC and a magnetised iron calorimeter, situated at 2300 km from CERN and a near detector based on a highpressure argon gas TPC. The long baseline provides a unique opportunity to study neutrino flavour oscillations over their 1st and 2nd oscillation maxima exploring the L/E behaviour, and distinguishing effects arising from δCP and matter. In this paper we have reevaluated the physics potential of this setup for determining the mass hierarchy (MH) and discovering CP-violation (CPV), using a conventional neutrino beam from the CERN SPS with a power of 750 kW. We use conservative assumptions on the knowledge of oscillation parameter priors and systematic uncertainties. The impact of each systematic error and the precision of oscillation prior is shown. We demonstrate that the first stage of LBNO can determine unambiguously the MH to > 5δ C.L. over the whole phase space. We show that the statistical treatment of the experiment is of very high importance, resulting in the conclusion that LBNO has ~ 100% probability to determine the MH in at most 4-5 years of running. Since the knowledge of MH is indispensable to extract δCP from the data, the first LBNO phase can convincingly give evidence for CPV on the 3δ C.L. using today’s knowledge on oscillation parameters and realistic assumptions on the systematic uncertainties.

Effect of low count sums on quantitative environmental reconstructions: an example using subfossil chironomids

The concentrations of chironomid remains in lake sediments are very variable and, therefore, chironomid stratigraphies often include samples with a low number of counts. Thus, the effect of low count sums on reconstructed temperatures is an important issue when applying chironomid‐temperature inference models. Using an existing data set, we simulated low count sums by randomly picking subsets of head capsules from surface‐sediment samples with a high number of specimens. Subsequently, a chironomid‐temperature inference model was used to assess how the inferred temperatures are affected by low counts. The simulations indicate that the variability of inferred temperatures increases progressively with decreasing count sums. At counts below 50 specimens, a further reduction in count sum can cause a disproportionate increase in the variation of inferred temperatures, whereas at higher count sums the inferences are more stable. Furthermore, low count samples may consistently infer too low or too high temperatures and, therefore, produce a systematic error in a reconstruction. Smoothing reconstructed temperatures downcore is proposed as a possible way to compensate for the high variability due to low count sums. By combining adjacent samples in a stratigraphy, to produce samples of a more reliable size, it is possible to assess if low counts cause a systematic error in inferred temperatures.

Pelvic floor muscle electromyography during different running speeds: an exploratory and reliability study.

PURPOSE Stress urinary incontinence (SUI) affects women of all ages including young athletes, especially those involved in high-impact sports. To date, hardly any studies are available testing pelvic floor muscles (PFM) during sports activities. The aim of this study was the description and reliability test of six PFM electromyography (EMG) variables during three different running speeds. The secondary objective was to evaluate whether there was a speed-dependent difference between the PFM activity variables. METHODS This trial was designed as an exploratory and reliability study including ten young healthy female subjects to characterize PFM pre-activity and reflex activity during running at 7, 9 and 11 km/h. Six variables for each running speed, averaged over ten steps per subject, were presented descriptively, tested regarding their reliability (Friedman, ICC, SEM, MD) and speed difference (Friedman). RESULTS PFM EMG variables varied between 67.6 and 106.1 %EMG, showed no systematic error and were low for SEM and MD using the single value model. Applying the average model over ten steps, ICC (3,k) were >0.75 and SEM and MD about 50 % lower than for the single value model. Activity was found to be highest in 11 km/h. CONCLUSION EMG variables showed excellent ICC and very low SEM and MD. Further studies should investigate inter-session reliability and PFM reactivity patterns of SUI patients using the average over ten steps for each variable as it showed very high ICC and very low SEM and MD. Subsequently, longer running distances and other high-impact sports disciplines could be studied.

Mapping spectroscopic uncertainties into prospective methane retrieval errors from Sentinel-5 and its precursor

Sentinel-5 (S5) and its precursor (S5P) are future European satellite missions aiming at global monitoring of methane (CH4) column-average dry air mole fractions (XCH4). The spectrometers to be deployed onboard the satellites record spectra of sunlight backscattered from the Earth's surface and atmosphere. In particular, they exploit CH4 absorption in the shortwave infrared spectral range around 1.65 mu m (S5 only) and 2.35 mu m (both S5 and S5P) wavelength. Given an accuracy goal of better than 2% for XCH4 to be delivered on regional scales, assessment and reduction of potential sources of systematic error such as spectroscopic uncertainties is crucial. Here, we investigate how spectroscopic errors propagate into retrieval errors on the global scale. To this end, absorption spectra of a ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) operating at very high spectral resolution serve as estimate for the quality of the spectroscopic parameters. Feeding the FTS fitting residuals as a perturbation into a global ensemble of simulated S5- and S5P-like spectra at relatively low spectral resolution, XCH4 retrieval errors exceed 0.6% in large parts of the world and show systematic correlations on regional scales, calling for improved spectroscopic parameters.

The Time-Series Properties on Housing Prices: A Case Study of the Southern California Market

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in eight Southern California metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). First, we perform cointegration tests of the housing price indexes for the MSAs, finding seven cointegrating vectors. Thus, the evidence suggests that one common trend links the housing prices in these eight MSAs, a purchasing power parity finding for the housing prices in Southern California. Second, we perform temporal Granger causality tests revealing intertwined temporal relationships. The Santa Anna MSA leads the pack in temporally causing housing prices in six of the other seven MSAs, excluding only the San Luis Obispo MSA. The Oxnard MSA experienced the largest number of temporal effects from other MSAs, six of the seven, excluding only Los Angeles. The Santa Barbara MSA proved the most isolated in that it temporally caused housing prices in only two other MSAs (Los Angels and Oxnard) and housing prices in the Santa Anna MSA temporally caused prices in Santa Barbara. Third, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each MSA, using various vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different MSAs. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

The Aggregate Demand for Private Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S.

This paper estimates the aggregate demand for private health insurance coverage in the U.S. using an error-correction model and by recognizing that people are without private health insurance for voluntary, structural, frictional, and cyclical reasons and because of public alternatives. Insurance coverage is measured both by the percentage of the population enrolled in private health insurance plans and the completeness of the insurance coverage. Annual data for the period 1966-1999 are used and both short and long run price and income elasticities of demand are estimated. The empirical findings indicate that both private insurance enrollment and completeness are relatively inelastic with respect to changes in price and income in the short and long run. Moreover, private health insurance enrollment is found to be inversely related to the poverty rate, particularly in the short-run. Finally, our results suggest that an increase in the number cyclically uninsured generates less of a welfare loss than an increase in the structurally uninsured.

The Real Exchange Rate in Small Open Developed Economies: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

We examine the effects of the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differential on the real exchange rate in a sample of small open developed economies. We employ cointegration analysis to search for possible long-term linkages. We find that while both the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differentials affect the real exchange rate in the long run, the role of the terms of trade generally proves more consistent across countries. The speed of adjustment for the expected real interest rate differential in the error-correction model, however, is quantitatively larger than it is for the terms of trade.

"Ripple Effects" and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas (directly) and Phoenix (indirectly). In addition, Las Vegas housing prices cause housing prices in Phoenix. Los Angeles housing prices prove exogenous in a temporal sense and Phoenix housing prices do not cause prices in the other two markets. Second, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each market, using various vector autoregessive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different cities. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

Countervailing Duties in the USA

This paper reveals the characteristics of the ITC's decisions on countervailing duties, which have seldom been studied. The empirical evidences based on time series data show that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between affirmative countervailing decisions and macroeconomic variables such as economic growth rates and import penetration ratios. The error correction models show that there is a unidirectional causality from affirmative countervailing decisions to slower economic growth.