The use of counterfactual scenarios as a means to assess policy deadweight:an Irish case study

The evaluation of industrial policy interventions has attracted increasing policy and academic attention in recent years. Despite the widespread consensus regarding the need for evaluation, the issue of how to evaluate, and the associated methodological considerations, continue to be issues of considerable debate. The authors develop an approach to estimate the net additionality of financial assistance from Enterprise Ireland to indigenously owned firms in Ireland for the period 2000 to 2002. With a sample of Enterprise Ireland assisted firms, an innovative, self-assessment, in-depth, face-to-face, interview methodology was adopted. The authors also explore a way of incorporating the indirect benefits of assistance into derived deadweight estimate issue which is seldom discussed in the context of deadweight estimates. They conclude by reflecting on the key methodological lessons learned from the evaluation process, and highlight some pertinent evaluation issues which should form the focus of much future discussion in this field of research.

Behaviour of concrete frame structures under localised fire scenarios

This thesis encompasses an investigation of the behaviour of concrete frame structure under localised fire scenarios by implementing a constitutive model using finite-element computer program. The investigation phase included properties of material at elevated temperature, description of computer program, thermal and structural analyses. Transient thermal properties of material have been employed in this study to achieve reasonable results. The finite-element computer package of ANSYS is utilized in the present analyses to examine the effect of fire on the concrete frame under five various fire scenarios. In addition, a report of full-scale BRE Cardington concrete building designed to Eurocode2 and BS8110 subjected to realistic compartment fire is also presented. The transient analyses of present model included additional specific heat to the base value of dry concrete at temperature 100°C and 200°C. The combined convective-radiation heat transfer coefficient and transient thermal expansion have also been considered in the analyses. For the analyses with the transient strains included, the constitutive model based on empirical formula in a full thermal strain-stress model proposed by Li and Purkiss (2005) is employed. Comparisons between the models with and without transient strains included are also discussed. Results of present study indicate that the behaviour of complete structure is significantly different from the behaviour of individual isolated members based on current design methods. Although the current tabulated design procedures are conservative when the entire building performance is considered, it should be noted that the beneficial and detrimental effects of thermal expansion in complete structures should be taken into account. Therefore, developing new fire engineering methods from the study of complete structures rather than from individual isolated member behaviour is essential.

UK business schools : historical contexts and future scenarios:summary report from an EBK/AIM Management Research Forum

This report begins with an analysis of the historical development of management education in Britain since 1945. It provides a context for understanding conflicting themes in current debates about business schools and examines how the different types of business school have evolved in the UK within very different education institutions. It places the current challenges faced by business schools in context, offers guidance on the strategic options available, and discusses some of the practical implications of the different paths outlined.

Informal dissemination scenarios and the effectiveness of evacuation warning dissemination of households:a simulation study

Timely warning of the public during large scale emergencies is essential to ensure safety and save lives. This ongoing study proposes an agent-based simulation model to simulate the warning message dissemination among the public considering both official channels and unofficial channels The proposed model was developed in NetLogo software for a hypothetical area, and requires input parameters such as effectiveness of each official source (%), estimated time to begin informing others, estimated time to inform others and estimated percentage of people (who do not relay the message). This paper demonstrates a means of factoring the behaviour of the public as informants into estimating the effectiveness of warningdissemination during large scale emergencies. The model provides a tool for the practitioner to test the potential impact of the informal channels on the overall warning time and sensitivity of the modelling parameters. The tool would help the practitioners to persuade evacuees to disseminate the warning message informing others similar to the ’Run to thy neighbour campaign conducted by the Red cross.

InfoStation-based Adaptable Provision of m Learning Services: Main Scenarios

This paper presents an adaptable InfoStation-based multi-agent system facilitating the mobile eLearning (mLearning) service provision within a University Campus. A horizontal view of the network architecture is presented. Main communications scenarios are considered by describing the detailed interaction of the system entities involved in the mLearning service provision. The mTest service is explored as a practical example. System implementation approaches are also considered.

Optimal combination of energy crops under different policy scenarios:the case of Northern Greece

Energy crops production is considered as environmentally benign and socially acceptable, offering ecological benefits over fossil fuels through their contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gases and acidifying emissions. Energy crops are subjected to persistent policy support by the EU, despite their limited or even marginally negative impact on the greenhouse effect. The present study endeavors to optimize the agricultural income generated by energy crops in a remote and disadvantageous region, with the assistance of linear programming. The optimization concerns the income created from soybean, sunflower (proxy for energy crop), and corn. Different policy scenarios imposed restrictions on the value of the subsidies as a proxy for EU policy tools, the value of inputs (costs of capital and labor) and different irrigation conditions. The results indicate that the area and the imports per energy crop remain unchanged, independently of the policy scenario enacted. Furthermore, corn cultivation contributes the most to iFncome maximization, whereas the implemented CAP policy plays an incremental role in uptaking an energy crop. A key implication is that alternative forms of motivation should be provided to the farmers beyond the financial ones in order the extensive use of energy crops to be achieved.

Alternative scenarios for Hungary for the year 2025

The paper presents how the Committee on Futures Research, within Section IX. of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS), sees the possible futures for Hungary for the year 2025, based on the expertise of Hungarian futurists and social scientists, including the opinions of younger generations. It offers insight to Hungarian society in 18 years from 2007, when the research began. In cooperation with experts coming from diverse scientific backgrounds and with those who feel responsibility for the future and are willing to act upon it, we need to continue discovering our horizon albeit in a different way and to embark on new roads. In summary, we need to change the HOW and the WHAT.

Scenarios and roots of climate change

There have been more and more words about climate change and global warming in the last few decades. But what do we really understand them? Is it logic that the climate change derived by human behaviour or is it an independent process of nature that occurs no matter how we try to stop it? Is the climate change a global warming or global cooling method? We know for sure that something is changing around us and we heard a million times that if we exhaust the resources of the Earth than we will cause permanent and irreversible damage. In the first part of this chapter we will see the facts. There will be a few different perspectives from a few different institutions publication about the methodology of measurement on climate change. In the second part of the chapter we shall distinguish how big part of the changes may be the results of the human activities, or is it even possible to distinguish what causes the climate change. In the last part of this chapter the IPCC’s scenario will be explained on the case if the process of the climate change can not be stopped, or if human kind does not do anything for mitigation.

Evaluation of climate change scenarios based on aquatic food web modelling

In the years 2004 and 2005 we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature, but the abundance of the three mentioned groups. This discrete-deterministic model could generate similar patterns like the observed one and testing it on historical data was successful. However, because the model was overpredicting the abundances of Ischnura pumilio and Cyclopoida at the end of the year, these results were not considered. Running the model with the data series of climate change scenarios, we had an opportunity to predict the individual numbers for the period around 2050. If the model is run with the data series of the two scenarios UKHI and UKLO, which predict drastic global warming, then we can observe a decrease in abundance and shift in the date of the maximum abundance occurring (excluding Ischnura pumilio, where the maximum abundance increases and it occurs later), whereas under unchanged climatic conditions (BASE scenario) the change in abundance is negligible. According to the scenarios GFDL 2535, GFDL 5564 and UKTR, a transition could be noticed.

Analysis of climate change scenarios based on modelling of the seasonal dynamics of a Danubian copepod species

Climate change is one of the most crucial ecological problems of our age with great influence. Seasonal dynamics of aquatic communities are — among others — regulated by the climate, especially by temperature. In this case study we attempted the simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of a copepod species, Cyclops vicinus, which ranks among the zooplankton community, based on a quantitative database containing ten years of data from the Danube’s Göd area. We set up a simulation model predicting the abundance of Cyclops vicinus by considering only temperature as it affects the abundance of population. The model was adapted to eight years of daily temperature data observed between 1981 and 1994 and was tested successfully with the additional data of two further years. The model was run with the data series of climate change scenarios specified for the period around 2070- 2100. On the other hand we looked for the geographically analogous areas with the Göd region which are mostly similar to the future climate of the Göd area. By means of the above-mentioned points we can get a view how the climate of the region will change by the end of the 21st century, and the way the seasonal dynamics of a chosen planktonic crustacean species may follow this change. According to our results the area of Göd will be similar to the northern region of Greece. The maximum abundance of the examined species occurs a month to one and a half months earlier, moreover larger variances are expected between years in respect of the abundance. The deviations are expected in the direction of smaller or significantly larger abundance not observed earlier.

A climate profile indicator based comparative analysis of climate change scenarios with regard to maize cultures

Using ecological data compiled from scientific literature on pest, pathogen and weed species characteristic in maize cultures in Hungary, we defined monthly climate profile indicators and applied them to complete a comparative analysis of the historical and modelled climate change scenario meteorological data of the city of Debrecen. Our results call attention to a drastic decline of the competitive ability of maize as compared to several C4 and especially C3 plants. According to the stricter scenarios, the frequency of potential pest and pathogen damage emergency situations will grow significantly by the end of the century.

Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling

In the years 2004 and 2005, we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest (Hungary). We set up a simulation model predicting the abundances of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi, and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature and the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature but the abundances of the three mentioned groups. When we ran the model with the data series of internationally accepted climate change scenarios, the different outcomes were discussed. Comparative assessment of the alternative climate change scenarios was also carried out with statistical methods.

A multi-scale assessment of physiological processes in arctic tundra plants under natural and simulated climate change scenarios

Climate warming is predicted to cause an increase in the growing season by as much as 30% for regions of the arctic tundra. This will have a significant effect on the physiological activity of the vascular plant species and the ecosystem as a whole. The need to understand the possible physiological change within this ecosystem is confounded by the fact that research in this extreme environment has been limited to periods when conditions are most favorable, mid June–mid August. This study attempted to develop the most comprehensive understanding to date of the physiological activity of seven tundra plant species in the Alaskan Arctic under natural and lengthened growing season conditions. Four interrelated lines of research, scaling from cellular signals to ecosystem processes, set the foundation for this study. ^ I established an experiment looking at the physiological response of arctic sedges to soil temperature stress with emphasis on the role of the hormone abscisic acid (ABA). A manipulation was also developed where the growing season was lengthened and soils were warmed in an attempt to determine the maximum physiological capacity of these seven vascular species. Additionally, the physiological capacities of four evergreens were tested in the subnivean environment along with the potential role anthocyanins play in their activity. The measurements were scaled up to determine the physiological role of these evergreens in maintaining ecosystem carbon fluxes. ^ These studies determined that soil temperature differentials significantly affect vascular plant physiology. ABA appears to be a physiological modifier that limits stomatal processes when root temperatures are low. Photosynthetic capacity was limited by internal plant physiological mechanisms in the face of a lengthened growing season. Therefore shifts in ecosystem carbon dynamics are driven by changes in species composition and biomass production on a per/unit area basis. These studies also found that changes in soil temperatures will have a greater effect of physiological processes than would the same magnitude of change in air temperature. The subnivean environment exhibits conditions that are favorable for photosynthetic activity in evergreen species. These measurements when scaled to the ecosystem have a significant role in limiting the system's carbon source capacity. ^

Simulating everglades national park hydrology and phosphorus transport under existing and future scenarios using numerical modeling

The Florida Everglades has a long history of anthropogenic changes which have impacted the quantity and quality of water entering the system. Since the construction of Tamiami Trail in the 1920's, overland flow to the Florida Everglades has decreased significantly, impacting ecosystems from the wetlands to the estuary. The MIKE Marsh Model of Everglades National Park (M3ENP) is a numerical model, which simulates Everglades National Park (ENP) hydrology using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11software. This model has been developed to determine the parameters that effect Everglades hydrology and understand the impact of specific flow changes on the hydrology of the system. ^ As part of the effort to return flows to the historical levels, several changes to the existing water management infrastructure have been implemented or are in the design phase. Bridge construction scenarios were programed into the M3ENP model to review the effect of these structural changes and evaluate the potential impacts on water levels and hydroperiods in the receiving Northeast Shark Slough ecosystem. These scenarios have shown critical water level increases in an area which has been in decline due to low water levels. Results from this work may help guide future decisions for restoration designs. ^ Excess phosphorus entering Everglades National Park in South Florida may promote the growth of more phosphorus-opportunistic species and alter the food chain from the bottom up. Two phosphorus transport methods were developed into the M3ENP hydrodynamic model to determine the factors affecting phosphorus transport and the impact of bridge construction on water quality. Results showed that while phosphorus concentrations in surface waters decreased overall, some areas within ENP interior may experience an increase in phosphorus loading which the addition of bridges to Tamiami Trail. Finally, phosphorus data and modeled water level data was used to evaluate the spectral response of Everglades vegetation to increasing phosphorus availability using Landsat imagery.^

Modeling the Effect of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River Flow, Kenya

Increasingly erratic flow in the upper reaches of the Mara River, has directed attention to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT and Landsat imagery were utilized in order to 1) map existing land use practices, 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on the water flux of the upper Mara River. This study found that land use change scenarios resulted in more erratic discharge while climate change scenarios had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. The model results showed the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes but land use changes reduce dry season flows which is a major problem in the basin. Deforestation increased the peak flows which translated to increased sediment loading in the Mara River.