The epidemiology of uterine cervical cancer among Anglo and Hispanic women in Texas

This study describes the incidence and mortality of uterine cervical cancer among Texas Anglo and Hispanic women, compares these data with respective data from the U.S. SEER Program, and determines factors which explain observed differences between the Texas ethnic groups and between Texas and SEER women. A total of 1,052 invasive and 1,852 in situ cervical cancer cases diagnosed during 1976-1985 among Texas residents were identified from the Texas Cancer Registry for study.^ The effect of ethnicity on the incidence of cervical cancer was found to be strongly modified by age. Texas Hispanic women 35 years and older were found to be at significantly greater risk (two- to four-fold) of invasive cervical cancer than Texas Anglos, and the risk was greatest among women 55-69 years. Compared with SEER females, both Texas ethnic groups exhibited excess risks of invasive cancer, but the magnitude varied with age. In contrast, Texas females were diagnosed less frequently with in situ cervical cancer than SEER females, and Hispanics had the largest differentials.^ As an indicator of differences in screening utilization between Texas and SEER ethnic groups, comparisons of in situ with invasive rates revealed both Texas ethnic groups in all age groups to have lower ratios than respective SEER females. Texas Hispanics had the lowest ratios. A larger percentage of squamous cell tumors were diagnosed among SEER females compared with Texas females, also supporting the finding of less screening. Texas invasive cases did not differ by ethnic group in the distribution of cell types. Hispanics 35-54 years had higher rates than Texas Anglos and SEER Hispanics for all four cell types.^ Declines in the incidence of invasive tumors over time were seen among Texas Anglos 35-54 years and Hispanics 55+ years. The mortality of cervical cancer also declined among Texas Anglo and Hispanic females 55+ years, but the rates still remained highest among these groups.^ In summary, these data indicate increased risks of invasive cervical cancer and less screening among subgroups of Texas females. Prevention efforts should be directed toward these Texas women at high risk of invasive cervical tumors. ^

Penetrating injuries of the thorax and abdomen: Type of medical-care institution and case fatality

The purpose of this study was to determine, for penetrating injuries (gunshot, stab) of the chest/abdomen, the impact on fatality of treatment in trauma centers and shock trauma units compared with general hospitals. Medical records of all cases of penetrating injury limited to chest/abdomen and admitted to and discharged from 7 study facilities in Baltimore city 1979-1980 (n = 581) were studied: 4 general hospitals (n = 241), 2 area-wide trauma centers (n = 298), and a shock trauma unit (n = 42). Emergency center and transferred cases were not studied. Anatomical injury severity, measured by modified Injury Severity Score (mISS), was a significant prognostic factor for death, as were cardiovascular shock (SBP $\le$ 70), injury type (gunshot vs stab), and ambulance/helicopter (vs other) transport. All deaths occurred in cases with two or more prognostic factors. Unadjusted relative risks of death compared with general hospitals were 4.3 (95% confidence interval = 2.2, 8.4) for shock trauma and 0.8 (0.4, 1.7) for trauma centers. Controlling for prognostic factors by logistic regression resulted in these relative risks: shock trauma 4.0 (0.7, 22.2), and trauma centers 0.8 (0.2, 3.2). Factors significantly associated with increased risk had the following relative risks by multiple logistic regression: SBP $\le$ 70 (RR = 40.7 (11.0, 148.7)), highest mISS (42 (7.7, 227)), gunshot (8.4 (2.1, 32.6)), and ambulance/helicopter transport (17.2 (1.3, 228.1)). Controlling for age, race, and gender did not alter results significantly. Actual deaths compared with deaths predicted from a multivariable model of general-hospital cases showed 3.7 more than predicted deaths in shock trauma (SMR = 1.6 (0.8, 2.9)) and 0.7 more than predicted deaths in area-wide trauma centers (SMR = 1.05 (0.6, 1.7)). Selection bias due to exclusion of transfers and emergency center cases, and residual confounding due to insufficient injury information, may account for persistence of adjusted high case fatality in shock trauma. Studying all cases prospectively, including emergency center and transferred cases, is needed. ^

Behavioral risk profile of marathon runners

Although long distance running clearly has benefits--as witnessed by its popularity--it also has risks of injury and death. Little is known, however, about the prevalence of potentially dangerous training habits in long distance runners, although anecdotal information suggests that many runners have erroneous beliefs about risks and benefits of marathon running. We conducted a cross-sectional survey to estimate the prevalence of 19 potentially dangerous training habits (risky behaviors) among marathon runners. A 66-item self-administered questionnaire was mailed to a stratified random sample of runners who finished of the 1992 Houston-Tenneco Marathon and were 21-71 years of age. Responses were obtained from 508 runners (83%) with approximately equal representation in four age-gender groups: men $<$40 years, men $\ge$40 years, women $<$40 years, and women $\ge$40 years.^ Prevalences of risky behaviors were high. 50% or more ran in dangerously hot and humid conditions, did not cool down or stretch after running, did not wear proper running gear, or ran when injured or ill; 25-49% did not warm up, ran on dangerous surfaces, did not drink sufficient water during training, increased weekly mileage too quickly, and ran during lightning storms; 10-24% ran daily, ran in areas with high pollution, ran in the same direction as traffic, did hard runs frequently, ran more than 60 miles per week, or ran against the advice of a physician.^ Positive associations were found between the practice of risky behaviors and self-reported prevalence of musculoskeletal injuries, heat-related injuries, noncompliance with recommendations for preventive health examinations, and noncompliance with positive health habits.^ These results indicate that many marathon runners engage in training habits that may increase risk of substantial injury or illness. Further studies are needed to explore the association of risky training behaviors on the incidence of injuries, and to determine reasons for noncompliance with recommendations from sports medicine specialists. ^

THE EFFECT OF CAFFEINE CONSUMPTION ON MORTALITY IN HYPERTENSIVE INDIVIDUALS

The effect of caffeine consumption on mortality was evaluated in a historical cohort study of 10064 hypertensive individuals participating in the Hypertension Detection and Follow-Up Program (HDFP) from 1973 to 1979. The study cohort was stratified into caffeine consumption groups (none, low, medium and high) based on their total level of caffeine intake from beverages (coffee and tea) and certain medications at the One-year follow-up home visit. Stratification was also made by sex, race, type of care and age. The total relative risks (RRs) when computed across strata for each caffeine consumer group (low, medium and high) were not significantly different when compared to the noncaffeine consumer group for all-cause or cause-specific mortality rates. The point estimates and 95 per cent confidence intervals for relative risks of all-cause mortality when compared to nonconsumers were as follows: Low = 0.82 (0.65-1.03), Medium: = 0.82 (0.62-1.82) and High = 0.90 (0.63-1.28). For all sex, race combinations there was an increase in the per cent of current smokers within each caffeine consumer group as the level of caffeine consumption increased. Cigarette smoking was an important confounder correlated with caffeine consumption and associated with mortality in this cohort. When confounding by cigarette smoking was adjusted for in the analysis, no association was found between the level of caffeine consumption and all-cause or cause-specific mortality. ^

Practice and attitude differences in physician cigarette use: A study of prevalence, physicians' role, and smoking policy awareness in Dubai, UAE

The use of tobacco products ruins the health of millions of people around the world. On average, tobacco users die nearly seven years earlier than non-tobacco users. n1 Cigarette smoking is a particular concern in the developing countries of the Middle East and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region where smoking prevalence is expected to increase. This is due to the tobacco industry's vigorous commercial and marketing activities. n3 Smoking prevalence among physicians is considered to be an effective indicator of a society's readiness to identify the smoking epidemic and its related health diseases. n4 There is a lack of detailed data on the smoking prevalence among healthcare professionals, particularly physicians, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This cross sectional study is the first to address smoking practices among physicians working at the Department of Health and Medical Services (DOHMS); in Dubai, UAE. ^ This study describes the cigarette smoking prevalence among DOHMS Physicians, physician attitudes towards tobacco use and tobacco bans; physician attitudes towards smoking cessation techniques (among smokers and non-smokers); and physician awareness of official anti-smoking policies. Data for the study was collected through the use of an adapted WHO standardized questionnaire, the Global Health Professionals Survey. The questionnaire was administered by the researcher to physicians (n=288) at their work place. Date was analyzed using the SPSS analytic software program. ^ Twelve percent of DOHMS physicians smoked cigarettes. Regardless of smoking status, the majority supported a tobacco ban in hospitals and public places, and a ban on tobacco advertising. There is a significant relationship between physician smoking status and discussing risks of tobacco use (p < 0.05). Non-smoking physicians reported spending more time with patients discussing hazards of smoking (p < 0.01). Non-smokers reported providing more counseling than their smoking colleagues. The majority of DOHMS physicians (63%) reported a lack of knowledge about 5As/ 5Rs. The majority of physicians also reported they are aware of hospital smoking policies that restrict smoking. Regardless of physician smoking status, DOHMS physicians are not very actively involved in smoking cessation activities. This cross sectional study is the first to address smoking programs, policies, and practices among physicians in Dubai, UAE. Findings support the need for increased physical smoking cessation training as well as the development of smoking cessation programs for tobacco control, and programs with a focus on physician participation in reducing tobacco and cigarette use among the general population.^

Correlates of post-diagnosis weight management among female breast cancer survivors: An Internet survey

Objective. Weight gain after cancer treatment is associated with breast cancer recurrence. In order to prolong cancer-free survivorship, interventions to manage post-diagnosis weight are sometimes conducted. However, little is known about what factors are associated with weight management behaviors among cancer survivors. In this study, we examined associations of demographic, clinical, and psychosocial variables with weight management behaviors in female breast cancer survivors. We also examined whether knowledge about post-diagnosis weight gain and its risk is associated with weight management behaviors. ^ Methods. 251 female breast cancer survivors completed an internet survey. They reported current performance of three weight management behaviors (general weight management, physical activity, and healthy diet). We also measured attitude, elf-efficacy, knowledge and social support regarding these behaviors along with demographic and clinical characteristics. ^ Results. Multiple regression models for the weight management behaviors explained 17% of the variance in general weight management, 45% in physical activity and 34% in healthy dieting. The models had 9–14 predictor variables which differed in each model. The variables associated with all three behaviors were social support and self-efficacy. Self-efficacy showed the strongest contribution in all models. The knowledge about weight gain and its risks was not associated with any weight management behaviors. However, women who obtained the knowledge during cancer treatment were more likely to engage in physical activity and healthy dieting. ^ Conclusions. The findings suggest that an intervention designed to increase their self-efficacy to manage weight, to be physically active, to eat healthy will effectively promote survivors to engage in these behaviors. Knowledge may motivate women to manage post-diagnosis weight about risk if information is provided during cancer treatment.^

Predictors of benzodiazepine self -administration behavior in anxious patients

The purpose of this study was to examine factors that may be associated with benzodiazepine (BZ) self-administration and risks of dependence in anxious patients. Preliminary work included examination of psychosocial characteristics and subjective drug response as potential predictors of medication use. Fifty-five M, F patients with generalized anxiety or panic disorder participated in a 3-week outpatient Choice Procedure in which they self-medicated “as needed” with alprazolam (Alz) and placebo. Findings showed that a large amount of variance in alprazolam preference, frequency, and quantity of use could be predicted by measures of anxiety, drug liking, and certain personality characteristics. The primary study extended this work by examining whether individual differences in Alz sensitivity also predict patterns of use. Twenty anxious patients participated in the study, which required 11 weekly clinic visits. Ten of these also participated in a baseline assessment of HPA-axis function that involved 24-hour monitoring of cortisol and ACTH levels and a CRH Stimulation Test. This assessment was conducted on the basis of prior evidence that steroid metabolites exert neuromodulatory effects on the GABA A receptor and that HPA-axis function may be related to BZ sensitivity and long-term disability in anxious patients. Patients were classified as either HIGH or LOW users based on their p.r.n. patterns of Alz use during the first 3 weeks of the study. They then participated in a 4-week dose response trial in which they received prescribed doses of medication (placebo, 0.25, 0.5, and 1.0mg Alz), each taken TID for 1 week. The dose response trial was followed by a second 3-week Choice Procedure. Findings were not indicative of biological differences in Alz sensitivity between the HIGH and LOW users. However, the HIGH users had higher baseline anxiety and greater anxiolytic response to Alz than the LOW users. Anxiolytic benefits of p.r.n. and prescribed dosing were shown to be comparable, and patients' conservative patterns of p.r.n. medication use were not affected by the period of prescribed dosing. Although there was not strong evidence to suggest relationships between HPA-axis function and Alz use or sensitivity, interesting findings emerged about the relationship between HPA-axis function and anxiety. ^

Subjective well -being as predictor of mortality, heart disease, and obesity: Prospective evidence from the Alameda County Study

Based on the World Health Organization's (1965) definition of health, understanding of health requires understanding of positive psychological states. Subjective Well-being (SWB) is a major indicator of positive psychological states. Up to date, most studies of SWB have been focused on its distributions and determinants. However, study of its consequences, especially health consequences, is lacking. This dissertation research examined Subjective Well-being, as operationally defined by constructs drawn from the framework of Positive Psychology, and its sub-scores (Positive Feelings and Negative Feelings) as predictors of three major health outcomes—mortality, heart disease, and obesity. The research used prospective data from the Alameda County Study over 29 years (1965–1994), based on a stratified, randomized, representative sample of the general public in Alameda County, California (Baseline N = 6928). ^ Multivariate analyses (Survival analyses using sequential Cox Proportional Hazard models in the cases of mortality and heart disease, and sequential Logistic Regression analyses in the case of obesity) were performed as the main methods to evaluate the associations of the predictors and the health outcomes. The results revealed that SWB reduced risks of all-cause mortality, natural-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality. Positive feelings not only had an even stronger protective effect against all-cause, natural-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but also predicted decreased unnatural-cause mortality which includes deaths from suicide, homicide, accidents, mental disorders, drug dependency, as well as alcohol-related liver diseases. These effects were significant even after adjusted for age, gender, education, and various physical health measures, and, in the case of cardiovascular mortality, obesity and health practices (alcohol consumption, smoking, and physical activities). However, these two positive psychological indicators, SWB and positive feelings, did not predict obesity. And negative feelings had no significant effect on any of the health outcomes evaluated, i.e., all-cause mortality, natural- and unnatural-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, or obesity, after covariates were controlled. These findings were discussed (1) in comparison with relevant existing studies, (2) in terms of their implications in health research and promotion, (3) in terms of the independence of positive and negative feelings, and (4) from a Positive Psychology perspective and its significance in Public Health research and practice. ^

Ocean acidification affects growth but not nutritional quality of the seaweed Fucus vesiculosus (Phaeophyceae, Fucales)

Understanding the ecological implications of global climate change requires investigations of not only the direct effects of environmental change on species performance but also indirect effects that arise from altered species interactions. We performed CO2 perturbation experiments to investigate the effects of ocean acidification on the trophic interaction between the brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus and the herbivorous isopod Idotea baltica. We predicted faster growth of F. vesiculosus at elevated CO2-concentrations and higher carbon content of the algal tissue. We expected that I. baltica has different consumption rates on algae that have been grown at different CO2 levels and that the isopods remove surplus carbon metabolically by enhanced respiration. Surprisingly, growth of F. vesiculosus as well as the C:N-ratio of the algal tissue were reduced at high CO2-levels. The changes in the elemental composition had no effect on the consumption rates and the respiration of the herbivores. An additional experiment showed that consumption of F. vesiculosus by the isopod Idotea emarginata was independent of ocean acidification and temperature. Our results could not reveal any effects of ocean acidification on the per capita strength of the trophic interaction between F. vesiculosus and its consumers. However, reduced growth of the algae at high CO2-concentrations might reduce the capability of the seaweed to compensate losses due to intense herbivory.

Survey and brain storming studies about machines, constructions, human and environmental risk consideration in the careers of the Universidad Politécnica of Madrid

The Universidad Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) includes schools and faculties that were for engineering degrees, architecture and computer science, that are now in a quick EEES Bolonia Plan metamorphosis getting into degrees, masters and doctorate structures. They are focused towards action in machines, constructions, enterprises, that are subjected to machines, human and environment created risks. These are present in actions such as use loads, wind, snow, waves, flows, earthquakes, forces and effects in machines, vehicles behavior, chemical effects, and other environmental factors including effects of crops, cattle and beasts, forests, and varied essential economic and social disturbances. Emphasis is for authors in this session more about risks of natural origin, such as for hail, winds, snow or waves that are not exactly known a priori, but that are often considered with statistical expected distributions giving extreme values for convenient return periods. These distributions are known from measures in time, statistic of extremes and models about hazard scenarios and about responses of man made constructions or devices. In each engineering field theories were built about hazards scenarios and how to cover for important risks. Engineers must get that the systems they handle, such as vehicles, machines, firms or agro lands or forests, obtain production with enough safety for persons and with decent economic results in spite of risks. For that risks must be considered in planning, in realization and in operation, and safety margins must be taken but at a reasonable cost. That is a small level of risks will often remain, due to limitations in costs or because of due to strange hazards, and maybe they will be covered by insurance in cases such as in transport with cars, ships or aircrafts, in agro for hail, or for fire in houses or in forests. These and other decisions about quality, security for men or about business financial risks are sometimes considered with Decision Theories models, using often tools from Statistics or operational Research. The authors have done and are following field surveys about risk consideration in the careers in UPM, making deep analysis of curricula taking into account the new structures of degrees in the EEES Bolonia Plan, and they have considered the risk structures offered by diverse schools of Decision theories. That gives an aspect of the needs and uses, and recommendations about improving in the teaching about risk, that may include special subjects especially oriented for each career, school or faculty, so as to be recommended to be included into the curricula, including an elaboration and presentation format using a multi-criteria decision model.

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m−2 s−1). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

Resilience in Cloud Computing for Critical Systems. Resilience, Dependability, Reliability in the use of Cloud Computing in Critical Systems in Public Organizations.

La informática se está convirtiendo en la quinta utilidad (gas, agua, luz, teléfono) en parte debido al impacto de Cloud Computing en las mayorías de las organizaciones. Este uso de informática es usada por cada vez más tipos de sistemas, incluidos Sistemas Críticos. Esto tiene un impacto en la complejidad internad y la fiabilidad de los sistemas de la organización y los que se ofrecen a los clientes. Este trabajo investiga el uso de Cloud Computing por sistemas críticos, centrándose en las dependencias y especialmente en la fiabilidad de estos sistemas. Se han presentado algunos ejemplos de su uso, y aunque su utilización en sistemas críticos no está extendido, se presenta cual puede llegar a ser su impacto. El objetivo de este trabajo es primero definir un modelo que pueda representar de una forma cuantitativa las interdependencias en fiabilidad y interdependencia para las organizaciones que utilicen estos sistemas, y aplicar este modelo en un sistema crítico del campo de sanidad y mostrar sus resultados. Los conceptos de “macro-dependability” y “micro-dependability” son introducidos en el modelo para la definición de interdependencia y para analizar la fiabilidad de sistemas que dependen de otros sistemas. ABSTRACT With the increasing utilization of Internet services and cloud computing by most organizations (both private and public), it is clear that computing is becoming the 5th utility (along with water, electricity, telephony and gas). These technologies are used for almost all types of systems, and the number is increasing, including Critical Infrastructure systems. Even if Critical Infrastructure systems appear not to rely directly on cloud services, there may be hidden inter-dependencies. This is true even for private cloud computing, which seems more secure and reliable. The critical systems can began in some cases with a clear and simple design, but evolved as described by Egan to "rafted" networks. Because they are usually controlled by one or few organizations, even when they are complex systems, their dependencies can be understood. The organization oversees and manages changes. These CI systems have been affected by the introduction of new ICT models like global communications, PCs and the Internet. Even virtualization took more time to be adopted by Critical systems, due to their strategic nature, but once that these technologies have been proven in other areas, at the end they are adopted as well, for different reasons such as costs. A new technology model is happening now based on some previous technologies (virtualization, distributing and utility computing, web and software services) that are offered in new ways and is called cloud computing. The organizations are migrating more services to the cloud; this will have impact in their internal complexity and in the reliability of the systems they are offering to the organization itself and their clients. Not always this added complexity and associated risks to their reliability are seen. As well, when two or more CI systems are interacting, the risks of one can affect the rest, sharing the risks. This work investigates the use of cloud computing by critical systems, and is focused in the dependencies and reliability of these systems. Some examples are presented together with the associated risks. A framework is introduced for analysing the dependability and resilience of a system that relies on cloud services and how to improve them. As part of the framework, the concepts of micro and macro dependability are introduced to explain the internal and external dependability on services supplied by an external cloud. A pharmacovigilance model system has been used for framework validation.

Water option contracts for reducing water supply risks: an application to the Tagus-Segura Transfer

El agua es un recurso cada vez más escaso y valioso. Por ello, los recursos hídricos disponibles deben asignarse de una forma eficiente entre los diferentes usos. El cambio climático aumentará la frecuencia y severidad de los eventos extremos, y podría incrementar la demanda de agua de los cultivos. El empleo de mecanismos flexibles de asignación de agua puede ser imprescindible para hacer frente a este aumento en la variabilidad del balance hídrico y para asegurar que los riesgos de suministro, y no solo los recursos, son compartidos de manera eficiente entre los usuarios. Los mercados de agua permiten la reasignación de los recursos hídricos, favoreciendo su transferencia desde los usos de menor a los de mayor valor. Diferentes tipos de mercados de agua se han establecido en diferentes partes del mundo, ayudando a los participantes a afrontar los problemas de escasez de agua en esas zonas. En España, los intercambios de agua están permitidos desde 1999, aunque la participación de los usuarios en el mercado ha sido limitada. Hay varios aspectos de los mercados de agua en España que deben mejorarse. Esta tesis, además de proponer una serie de cambios en el marco regulatorio, propone la introducción de contratos de opción de agua como una posible mejora. La principal ventaja de este tipo de contratos es la estabilidad legal e institucional que éstos proporcionan tanto a compradores como vendedores. Para apoyar esta propuesta, se han llevado a cabo diferentes análisis que muestran el potencial de los contratos de opción como herramienta de reducción del riesgo asociado a una oferta de agua inestable. La Cuenca del Segura (Sureste de España), la Cuenca del Tajo y el Acueducto Tajo- Segura han sido seleccionados como casos de estudio. Tres análisis distintos aplicados a dicha región se presentan en esta tesis: a) una evaluación de los contratos de opción como mecanismo para reducir los riesgos de disponibilidad de agua sufridos por los regantes en la Cuenca del Segura; b) un marco teórico para analizar las preferencias de los regantes por diferentes mecanismos de gestión del riesgo de disponibilidad de agua, su disposición a pagar por ellos y los precios aproximados de estos instrumentos (seguro de sequía y contratos de opción de agua); y c) una evaluación del papel de los contratos de opción en las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua de una comunidad de regantes ante una oferta de agua incierta. Los resultados muestran el potencial de reducción del riesgo de los contratos de opción para regantes en España, pero pueden ser extrapolados a otros sectores o regiones. Las principales conclusiones de esta tesis son: a) la agricultura será uno de los sectores más afectados por el cambio climático. Si los precios del agua aumentan, la rentabilidad de los cultivos puede caer hasta niveles negativos, lo que podría dar lugar al abandono de cultivos de regadío en algunas zonas de España. Las políticas de cambio climático y de agua deben estar estrechamente coordinadas para asegurar un uso de agua eficiente y la rentabilidad de la agricultura; b) aunque los mercados de agua han ayudado a algunos usuarios a afrontar problemas de disponibilidad del recurso en momentos de escasez, hay varios aspectos que deben mejorarse; c) es necesario desarrollar mercados de agua más flexibles y estables para garantizar una asignación eficiente de los recursos entre los usuarios de agua; d) los resultados muestran los beneficios derivados del establecimiento de un contrato de opción entre usuarios de agua del Tajo y del Segura para reducir el riesgo de disponibilidad de agua en la cuenca receptora; e) la disposición a pagar de los regantes por un contrato de opción de agua o un seguro de sequía hidrológica, que representa el valor que tienen estos mecanismos para aquellos usuarios de agua que se enfrentan a riesgos relacionados con la disponibilidad del recurso, es consistente con los resultados obtenidos en estudios previos y superior al precio de mercado de estos instrumentos, lo que favorece la viabilidad de estos mecanismos de gestión del riesgo ; y f) los contratos de opción podrían ayudar a optimizar las decisiones de aprovisionamiento de agua bajo incertidumbre, proporcionando más estabilidad y flexibilidad que los mercados temporales de agua. ABSTRACT Water is becoming increasingly scarce and valuable. Thus, existing water resources need to be efficiently allocated among users. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of extreme events, and it may also increase irrigated crops' water demand. The implementation of flexible allocation mechanisms could be essential to cope with this increased variability of the water balance and ensure that supply risks, and not only water resources, are also efficiently shared and managed. Water markets allow for the reallocation of water resources from low to high value uses. Different water trading mechanisms have been created in different parts of the world and have helped users to alleviate water scarcity problems in those areas. In Spain, water trading is allowed since 1999, although market activity has been limited. There are several issues in the Spanish water market that should be improved. This thesis, besides proposing several changes in the legislative framework, proposes the introduction of water option contracts as a potential improvement. The main advantage for both buyer and seller derived from an option contract is the institutional and legal stability it provides. To support this proposal, different analyses have been carried out that show the potential of option contracts as a risk reduction tool to manage water supply instability. The Segura Basin (Southeast Spain), the Tagus Basin and the Tagus-Segura inter-basin Transfer have been selected as the case study. Three different analyses applied to this region are presented in this thesis: a) an evaluation of option contracts as a mechanisms to reduce water supply availability risks in the Segura Basin; b) a theoretical framework for analyzing farmer’s preferences for different water supply risk management tools and farmers’ willingness to pay for them, together with the assessment of the prices of these mechanisms (drought insurance and water option contracts); and c) an evaluation of the role of option contracts in water procurement decisions under uncertainty. Results show the risk-reduction potential of option contracts for the agricultural sector in Spain, but these results can be extrapolated to other sectors or regions. The main conclusions of the thesis are: a) agriculture would be one of the most affected sectors by climate change. With higher water tariffs, crop’s profitability can drop to negative levels, which may result in the abandoning of the crop in many areas. Climate change and water policies must be closely coordinated to ensure efficient water use and crops’ profitability; b) although Spanish water markets have alleviated water availability problems for some users during water scarcity periods, there are several issues that should be improved; c) more flexible and stable water market mechanisms are needed to allocate water resources and water supply risks among competing users; d) results show the benefits derived from the establishment of an inter-basin option contract between water users in the Tagus and the Segura basins for reducing water supply availability risks in the recipient area; e) irrigators’ willingness to pay for option contracts or drought insurance, that represent the value that this kind of trading mechanisms has for water users facing water supply reliability problems, are consistent with results obtained in previous works and higher than the prices of this risk management tools, which shows the feasibility of these mechanisms; and f) option contracts would help to optimize water procurement decisions under uncertainty, providing more flexibility and stability than the spot market.

Cardiolipin is a normal component of human plasma lipoproteins

Anticardiolipin (anti-CL) antibodies, diagnostic for antiphospholipid antibody syndrome, are associated with increased risks of venous and arterial thrombosis. Because CL selectively enhances activated protein C/protein S-dependent anticoagulant activities in purified systems and because CL is not known to be a normal plasma component, we searched for CL in plasma. Plasma lipid extracts [chloroform/methanol (2:1, vol/vol)] were subjected to analyses by using TLC, analytical HPLC, and MS. A plasma lipid component was purified that was indistinguishable from reference CL (M:1448). When CL in 40 fasting plasma lipid extracts (20 males, 20 females) was quantitated by using HPLC, CL (mean ± SD) was 14.9 ± 3.7 μg/ml (range 9.1 to 24.2) and CL was not correlated with phosphatidylserine (3.8 ± 1.7 μg/ml), phosphatidylethanolamine (64 ± 20 μg/ml), or choline-containing phospholipid (1,580 ± 280 μg/ml). Based on studies of fasting blood donors, CL (≥94%) was recovered in very low density, low density, and high density lipoproteins (11 ± 5.3%, 67 ± 11.0%, and 17 ± 10%, respectively), showing that the majority of plasma CL (67%) is in low density lipoprotein. Analysis of relative phospholipid contents of lipoproteins indicated that high density lipoprotein is selectively enriched in CL and phosphatidylethanolamine. These results shows that CL is a normal plasma component and suggest that the epitopes of antiphospholipid antibodies could include CL or oxidized CL in lipoproteins or in complexes with plasma proteins (e.g., β2-glycoprotein I, prothrombin, protein C, or protein S) or with platelet or endothelial surface proteins.

Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution

Although panel discussants disagreed whether the biodiversity crisis constitutes a mass extinction event, all agreed that current extinction rates are 50–500 times background and are increasing and that the consequences for the future evolution of life are serious. In response to the on-going rapid decline of biomes and homogenization of biotas, the panelists predicted changes in species geographic ranges, genetic risks of extinction, genetic assimilation, natural selection, mutation rates, the shortening of food chains, the increase in nutrient-enriched niches permitting the ascendancy of microbes, and the differential survival of ecological generalists. Rates of evolutionary processes will change in different groups, and speciation in the larger vertebrates is essentially over. Action taken over the next few decades will determine how impoverished the biosphere will be in 1,000 years when many species will suffer reduced evolvability and require interventionist genetic and ecological management. Whether the biota will continue to provide the dependable ecological services humans take for granted is less clear. The discussants offered recommendations, including two of paramount importance (concerning human populations and education), seven identifying specific scientific activities to better equip us for stewardship of the processes of evolution, and one suggesting that such stewardship is now our responsibility. The ultimate test of evolutionary biology as a science is not whether it solves the riddles of the past but rather whether it enables us to manage the future of the biosphere. Our inability to make clearer predictions about the future of evolution has serious consequences for both biodiversity and humanity.