Análise quantitativa de dispersão de vazamentos de substâncias inflamáveis e/ou tóxicas em ambientes com barreiras ou semi confinados.

Com o atual desenvolvimento industrial e tecnológico da sociedade, a presença de substâncias inflamáveis e/ou tóxicas aumentou significativamente em um grande número de atividades. A possível dispersão de gases perigosos em instalações de armazenamento ou em operações de transporte representam uma grande ameaça à saúde e ao meio ambiente. Portanto, a caracterização de uma nuvem inflamável e/ou tóxica é um ponto crítico na análise quantitativa de riscos. O objetivo principal desta tese foi fornecer novas perspectivas que pudessem auxiliar analistas de risco envolvidos na análise de dispersões em cenários complexos, por exemplo, cenários com barreiras ou semi-confinados. A revisão bibliográfica mostrou que, tradicionalmente, modelos empíricos e integrais são usados na análise de dispersão de substâncias tóxicas / inflamáveis, fornecendo estimativas rápidas e geralmente confiáveis ao descrever cenários simples (por exemplo, dispersão em ambientes sem obstruções sobre terreno plano). No entanto, recentemente, o uso de ferramentas de CFD para simular dispersões aumentou de forma significativa. Estas ferramentas permitem modelar cenários mais complexos, como os que ocorrem em espaços semi-confinados ou com a presença de barreiras físicas. Entre todas as ferramentas CFD disponíveis, consta na bibliografia que o software FLACS® tem bom desempenho na simulação destes cenários. Porém, como outras ferramentas similares, ainda precisa ser totalmente validado. Após a revisão bibliográfica sobre testes de campo já executados ao longo dos anos, alguns testes foram selecionados para realização de um exame preliminar de desempenho da ferramenta CFD utilizado neste estudo. Foram investigadas as possíveis fontes de incertezas em termos de capacidade de reprodutibilidade, de dependência de malha e análise de sensibilidade das variáveis de entrada e parâmetros de simulação. Os principais resultados desta fase foram moldados como princípios práticos a serem utilizados por analistas de risco ao realizar análise de dispersão com a presença de barreiras utilizando ferramentas CFD. Embora a revisão bibliográfica tenha mostrado alguns dados experimentais disponíveis na literatura, nenhuma das fontes encontradas incluem estudos detalhados sobre como realizar simulações de CFD precisas nem fornecem indicadores precisos de desempenho. Portanto, novos testes de campo foram realizados a fim de oferecer novos dados para estudos de validação mais abrangentes. Testes de campo de dispersão de nuvem de propano (com e sem a presença de barreiras obstruindo o fluxo) foram realizados no campo de treinamento da empresa Can Padró Segurança e Proteção (em Barcelona). Quatro testes foram realizados, consistindo em liberações de propano com vazões de até 0,5 kg/s, com duração de 40 segundos em uma área de descarga de 700 m2. Os testes de campo contribuíram para a reavaliação dos pontos críticos mapeados durante as primeiras fases deste estudo e forneceram dados experimentais para serem utilizados pela comunidade internacional no estudo de dispersão e validação de modelos. Simulações feitas utilizando-se a ferramenta CFD foram comparadas com os dados experimentais obtidos nos testes de campo. Em termos gerais, o simulador mostrou bom desempenho em relação às taxas de concentração da nuvem. O simulador reproduziu com sucesso a geometria complexa e seus efeitos sobre a dispersão da nuvem, mostrando claramente o efeito da barreira na distribuição das concentrações. No entanto, as simulações não foram capazes de representar toda a dinâmica da dispersão no que concerne aos efeitos da variação do vento, uma vez que as nuvens simuladas diluíram mais rapidamente do que nuvens experimentais.

Estratégias de comercialização e investimento, com ênfase em energias renováveis, suportadas por modelos de otimização especializados para avaliação estocástica de risco x retorno.

A comercialização de energia elétrica de fontes renováveis, ordinariamente, constitui-se uma atividade em que as operações são estruturadas sob condições de incerteza, por exemplo, em relação ao preço \"spot\" no mercado de curto prazo e a geração de energia dos empreendimentos. Deriva desse fato a busca dos agentes pela formulação de estratégias e utilização de ferramentais para auxiliá-los em suas tomadas de decisão, visando não somente o retorno financeiro, mas também à mitigação dos riscos envolvidos. Análises de investimentos em fontes renováveis compartilham de desafios similares. Na literatura, o estudo da tomada de decisão considerada ótima sob condições de incerteza se dá por meio da aplicação de técnicas de programação estocástica, que viabiliza a modelagem de problemas com variáveis randômicas e a obtenção de soluções racionais, de interesse para o investidor. Esses modelos permitem a incorporação de métricas de risco, como por exemplo, o Conditional Value-at-Risk, a fim de se obter soluções ótimas que ponderem a expectativa de resultado financeiro e o risco associado da operação, onde a aversão ao risco do agente torna-se um condicionante fundamental. O objetivo principal da Tese - sob a ótica dos agentes geradores, consumidores e comercializadores - é: (i) desenvolver e implementar modelos de otimização em programação linear estocástica com métrica CVaR associada, customizados para cada um desses agentes; e (ii) aplicá-los na análise estratégica de operações como forma de apresentar alternativas factíveis à gestão das atividades desses agentes e contribuir com a proposição de um instrumento conceitualmente robusto e amigável ao usuário, para utilização por parte das empresas. Nesse contexto, como antes frisado, dá-se ênfase na análise do risco financeiro dessas operações por meio da aplicação do CVaR e com base na aversão ao risco do agente. Considera-se as fontes renováveis hídrica e eólica como opções de ativos de geração, de forma a estudar o efeito de complementaridade entre fontes distintas e entre sites distintos da mesma fonte, avaliando-se os rebatimentos nas operações.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Proceedings of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Tenth Water Reactor Safety Research Information Meeting, held at National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, Maryland, October 12-15, 1982 /

Includes papers describing research sponsored by the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, NRC.

Proceedings of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Eleventh Water Reactor Safety Research Information Meeting, held at National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, Maryland, October 24-28, 1983 /

Includes bibliographies.

Proceedings of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Thirteenth Water Reactor Safety Research Information Meeting, held at National Bureau of Standards, Gaithersburg, Maryland, October 22-25, 1985 /

Includes bibliographies.

Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions II. Model application

Smallholder farmers in Africa practice traditional cropping techniques such as intercropping. Intercropping is thought to offer higher productivity and resource milisation than sole cropping. In this study, risk associated with maize-bean intercropping was evaluated by quantifying long-term yield in both intercropping and sole cropping in a semi-arid region of South Africa (Bloemfontein, Free State) with reference to rainfall variability. The crop simulation model was run with different cultural practices (planting date and plant density) for 52 summer crop growing seasons (1950/1951-2001/2002). Eighty-one scenarios, consisted of three levels of initial soil water, planting date, maize population, and bean population, were simulated. From the simulation outputs, the total land equivalent ratio (LER) was greater than one. The intercrop (equivalent to sole maize) had greater energy value (EV) than sole beans, and the intercrop (equivalent to sole beans) had greater monetary value (MV) than sole maize. From these results, it can be concluded that maize-bean intercropping is advantageous for this semi-arid region. Soil water at planting was the most important factor of all scenario factors, followed by planting date. Irrigation application at planting, November/December planting and high plant density of maize for EV and beans for MV can be one of the most effective cultural practices in the study region. With regard to rainfall variability, seasonal (October-April) rainfall positively affected EV and MV, but not LER. There was more intercrop production in La Nina years than in El Nino years. Thus, better cultural practices may be selected to maximize maize-bean intercrop yields for specific seasons in the semi-arid region based on the global seasonal outlook. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risks for ross river virus disease in tropical Australia

Background There are no analytical studies of individual risks for Ross River virus (RRV) disease. Therefore, we set out to determine individual risk and protective factors for RRV disease in a high incidence area and to assess the utility of the case-control design applied for this purpose to an arbovirus disease. Methods We used a prospective matched case-control study of new community cases of RRV disease in the local government areas of Cairns, Mareeba, Douglas, and Atherton, in tropical Queensland, from January I to May 31, 1998. Results Protective measures against mosquitoes reduced the risk for disease. Mosquito coils, repellents, and citronella candles each decreased risk by at least 2-fold, with a dose-response for the number of protective measures used. Light-coloured clothing decreased risk 3-fold. Camping increased the risk 8-fold. Conclusions These risks were substantial and statistically significant, and provide a basis for educational programs on individual protection against RRV disease in Australia. Our study demonstrates the utility of the case-control method for investigating arbovirus risks. Such a risk analysis has not been done before for RRV infection, and is infrequently reported for other arbovirus infections.

Early warning signs in postgraduate research education: a different approach to ensuring timely completions

Recent government intervention in research higher degree policy across the globe has sharpened universities' focus on the quality of their students' research education experience and on timely completion rates. Studies have sought to highlight the factors that predict research students' timely completion of their studies. Many universities have sought to tighten their selection processes as a way of improving completion rates, even verging on adopting a risk analysis approach to selecting students. Instead this paper takes a preventative, interventionist approach to improving timely completions. It explores how experienced supervisors detect and deal with early warning signs that their research students are experiencing difficulty. It also investigates the wide range of reasons some students nominate for not discussing these difficulties directly with their supervisors. It proposes that supervisors may be able to improve timely completions if they are aware of these reasons and if they adopt a range of explicit pedagogical strategies to support students' learning.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Information system planning in drug service:a case study

The development of an information system in Caribbean public sector organisations is usually seen as a matter of installing hardware and software according to a directive from senior management, without much planning. This causes huge investment in procuring hardware and software without improving overall system performance. Increasingly, Caribbean organisations are looking for assurances on information system performance before making investment decisions not only to satisfy the funding agencies, but also to be competitive in this dynamic and global business world. This study demonstrates an information system planning approach using a process-reengineering framework. Firstly, the stakeholders for the business functions are identified along with their relationships and requirements. Secondly, process reengineering is carried out to develop the system requirements. Accordingly, information technology is selected through detailed system requirement analysis. Thirdly, cost-benefit analysis, identification of critical success factors and risk analysis are carried out to strengthen the selection. The entire methodology has been demonstrated through an information system project in the Barbados drug service, a public sector organisation in the Caribbean.

A sustainable supply chain study of the Indian bioenergy sector

In India, more than one third of the population do not currently have access to modern energy services. Biomass to energy, known as bioenergy, has immense potential for addressing India’s energy poverty. Small scale decentralised bioenergy systems require low investment compared to other renewable technologies and have environmental and social benefits over fossil fuels. Though they have historically been promoted in India through favourable policies, many studies argue that the sector’s potential is underutilised due to sustainable supply chain barriers. Moreover, a significant research gap exists. This research addresses the gap by analysing the potential sustainable supply chain risks of decentralised small scale bioenergy projects. This was achieved through four research objectives, using various research methods along with multiple data collection techniques. Firstly, a conceptual framework was developed to identify and analyse these risks. The framework is founded on existing literature and gathered inputs from practitioners and experts. Following this, sustainability and supply chain issues within the sector were explored. Sustainability issues were collated into 27 objectives, and supply chain issues were categorised according to related processes. Finally, the framework was validated against an actual bioenergy development in Jodhpur, India. Applying the framework to the action research project had some significant impacts upon the project’s design. These include the development of water conservation arrangements, the insertion of auxiliary arrangements, measures to increase upstream supply chain resilience, and the development of a first aid action plan. More widely, the developed framework and identified issues will help practitioners to take necessary precautionary measures and address them quickly and cost effectively. The framework contributes to the bioenergy decision support system literature and the sustainable supply chain management field by incorporating risk analysis and introducing the concept of global and organisational sustainability in supply chains. The sustainability issues identified contribute to existing knowledge through the exploration of a small scale and developing country context. The analysis gives new insights into potential risks affecting the whole bioenergy supply chain.

Petroleum pipeline construction planning:a conceptual framework

A cross-country pipeline construction project is exposed to an uncertain environment due to its enormous size (physical, manpower requirement and financial value), complexity in design technology and involvement of external factors. These uncertainties can lead to several changes in project scope during the process of project execution. Unless the changes are properly controlled, the time, cost and quality goals of the project may never be achieved. A methodology is proposed for project control through risk analysis, contingency allocation and hierarchical planning models. Risk analysis is carried out through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) due to the subjective nature of risks in construction projects. The results of risk analysis are used to determine the logical contingency for project control with the application of probability theory. Ultimate project control is carried out by hierarchical planning model which enables decision makers to take vital decisions during the changing environment of the construction period. Goal programming (GP), a multiple criteria decision-making technique, is proposed for model formulation because of its flexibility and priority-base structure. The project is planned hierarchically in three levels—project, work package and activity. GP is applied separately at each level. Decision variables of each model are different planning parameters of the project. In this study, models are formulated from the owner's perspective and its effectiveness in project control is demonstrated.