Defining expected cost for the air conditioning to avoid a price spike of electricity market under DSR model

This work presents a demand side response model (DSR) which assists small electricity consumers, through an aggregator, exposed to the market price to proactively mitigate price and peak impact on the electrical system. The proposed model allows consumers to manage air-conditioning when as a function of possible price spikes. The main contribution of this research is to demonstrate how consumers can minimise the total expected cost by optimising air-conditioning to account for occurrences of a price spike in the electricity market. This model investigates how pre-cooling method can be used to minimise energy costs when there is a substantial risk of an electricity price spike. The model was tested with Queensland electricity market data from the Australian Energy Market Operator and Brisbane temperature data from the Bureau of Statistics during hot days on weekdays in the period 2011 to 2012.

Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

A novel, automated nutrition screening system as a predictor of nutritional risk in an oncology day treatment unit (ODTU)

Purpose Paper-based nutrition screening tools can be challenging to implement in the ambulatory oncology setting. The aim of this study was to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool (MST) and a novel, automated nutrition screening system compared to a ‘gold standard’ full nutrition assessment using the Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA). Methods An observational, cross-sectional study was conducted in an outpatient oncology day treatment unit (ODTU) within an Australian tertiary health service. Eligibility criteria were as follows: ≥18 years, receiving outpatient anticancer treatment and English literate. Patients self-administered the MST. A dietitian assessed nutritional status using the PGSGA, blinded to the MST score. Automated screening system data were extracted from an electronic oncology prescribing system. This system used weight loss over 3 to 6 weeks prior to the most recent weight record or age-categorised body mass index (BMI) to identify nutritional risk. Sensitivity and specificity against PG-SGA (malnutrition) were calculated using contingency tables and receiver operating curves. Results There were a total of 300 oncology outpatients (51.7 % male, 58.6±13.3 years). The area under the curve (AUC) for weight loss alone was 0.69 with a cut-off value of ≥1 % weight loss yielding 63 % sensitivity and 76.7 % specificity. MST (score ≥2) resulted in 70.6 % sensitivity and 69.5 % specificity, AUC 0.77. Conclusions Both the MST and the automated method fell short of the accepted professional standard for sensitivity (~≥80 %) derived from the PG-SGA. Further investigation into other automated nutrition screening options and the most appropriate parameters available electronically is warranted to support targeted service provision.

Genetic polymorphisms in miRNAs targeting the estrogen receptor and their effect on breast cancer risk

Breast cancer is the cancer that most commonly affects women worldwide. This type of cancer is genetically complex, but is strongly linked to steroid hormone signalling systems. Because microRNAs act as translational regulators of multiple genes, including the steroid nuclear receptors, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in microRNAs genes can have potentially wide-ranging influences on breast cancer development. Thus, this study was conducted to investigate the relationships between six SNPs (rs6977848, rs199981120, rs185641358, rs113054794, rs66461782, and rs12940701) located in four miRNA genes predicted to target the estrogen receptor (miR-148a, miR-221, miR-186, and miR-152) and breast cancer risk in Caucasian Australian women. By using high resolution melt analysis (HRM) and polymerase chain reaction- restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP), 487 samples including 225 controls and 262 cases were genotyped. Analysis of their genotype and allele frequencies indicated that the differences between case and control populations was not significant for rs6977848, rs66461782, and rs12940701 because their p-values are 0.81, 0.93, 0.1 which are all above the threshold value (p=0.05). Our data thus suggests that these SNPs do not affect breast cancer risk in the tested population. In addition, rs199981120, rs185641358, and rs113054794 could not be found in this population, suggesting that these SNPs do not occur in Caucasian Australians.

Analysis of distance learner value assessment of distance education in engineering

Numerous research studies have evaluated whether distance learning is a viable alternative to traditional learning methods. These studies have generally made use of cross-sectional surveys for collecting data, comparing distance to traditional learners with intent to validate the former as a viable educational tool. Inherent fundamental differences between traditional and distance learning pedagogies, however, reduce the reliability of these comparative studies and constrain the validity of analyses resulting from this analytical approach. This article presents the results of a research project undertaken to analyze expectations and experiences of distance learners with their degree programs. Students were given surveys designed to examine factors expected to affect their overall value assessment of their distance learning program. Multivariate statistical analyses were used to analyze the correlations among variables of interest to support hypothesized relationships among them. Focusing on distance learners overcomes some of the limitations with assessments that compare off- and on-campus student experiences. Evaluation and modeling of distance learner responses on perceived value for money of the distance education they received indicate that the two most important influences are course communication requirements, which had a negative effect, and course logistical simplicity, which revealed a positive effect. Combined, these two factors accounted for approximately 47% of the variability in perceived value for money of the educational program of sampled students. A detailed focus on comparing expectations with outcomes of distance learners complements the existing literature dominated by comparative studies of distance and nondistance learners.

The power of naming : the multifaceted value of learning students’ names

The modern day Australian law school is expected to educate and engage law students. Ideally law school will instil a sense of passion (or at least appreciation) for the law, promote a positive professional identity, foster a sense of community, and provide general support to law students. Collectively, the Australian legal academy is struggling with these goals. Significant numbers of students feel isolated, disconnected and unengaged throughout their tertiary legal education. Teaching students from increasingly diverse backgrounds, who spend less time on campus and less face-to-face time in class, many law academics feel ill-equipped to respond to the challenge of engaging law students in time and cost efficient ways. Intentionally learning and using student names has potential to humanise the law school experience, build community, and positively impact upon the wellbeing of students and staff.

Variation in risk seeking behaviour following large losses : a natural experiment

This study explores people's risk taking behaviour after having suffered large real-world losses following a natural disaster. Using the margins of the 2011 Australian floods (Brisbane) as a natural experimental setting, we find that homeowners who were victims of the floods and face large losses in property values are 50% more likely to opt for a risky gamble -- a scratch card giving a small chance of a large gain ($500,000) -- than for a sure amount of comparable value ($10). This finding is consistent with prospect theory predictions regarding the adoption of a risk-seeking attitude after a loss.

Revisiting the adoption of innovative products on Australian road infrastructure projects

Construction product innovation can exert a positive influence on project and industry performance. However, guidance is scarce on product innovation diffusion for road infrastructure, in contrast to the large body of literature on the manufacturing industry. A conceptual framework is proposed to understand these processes. Advice is given to managers based on the framework and a large quantitative survey. The framework focuses on contextual characteristics that influence the decision to adopt new-to-industry product innovation, as part of a diffusion process. Case study data are interpreted within the revised framework to test its value and disaggregate the broad obstacles to innovation. A large quantitative survey was then conducted to rank the relative importance of the obstacles constraining the adoption of innovative products on road construction projects. The three most important obstacles were found to be: (1) overemphasis on up-front project costs during tender stage; (2) disagreement over who carries the risk of new product failure; and (3) adversarial contract relations. The results suggest refinements to the conceptual framework to make it a more powerful tool for categorizing and analysing construction innovation obstacles. Results also suggest well-resourced repeat interactions within complementary procurement and regulatory systems will enhance the project teams’ ability to recognize and address innovation obstacles. Further, improved relationships are expected to decrease the need for an overly conservative approach to product approval and prescriptive specifications.

What parents value from formal support services in the context of identified child abuse

Parents whose children are identified as having experienced or being at risk of experiencing significant harm potentially provide an invaluable dimension to our understanding of the circumstances that result in child abuse or neglect and how best to respond to these invariably complex situations. This paper reports findings from a study of the experiences of six parents. In-depth interviews were conducted with four mothers and two fathers who had been referred to an intensive family support services by the Queensland statutory child protection authority. Using a critical ecological perspective, the study focused on identifying and understanding the experiences of the parents in using formal family support services, including aspects of service delivery that were helpful or unhelpful. Parents also commented on their experiences of statutory child protection services. Service components and worker qualities that parents identified as being helpful included being accessible, targeted and integrated and being able to meet a continuum of needs, from a micro to a broader level. Their reports provide invaluable insight into how formal family support services, including child protection services, can better meet the needs of parents in addressing the recurring problem of child maltreatment.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Recommendations for the categorization of germ cell mutagens

Germ cell mutagens are currently classified into three categories in the German List of MAK- and BAT-Values. These categories have been revised and extended in analogy to the new categories for carcinogenic chemicals. Germ cell mutagens produce heritable gene mutations, and heritable structural and numerical chromosome aberrations in germ cells. The original categories 1 and 2 for germ cell mutagens remained unchanged. Two new categories 3 A and 3 B are proposed for chemicals which are suspected to be germ cell mutagens. A new category 5 is proposed for germ cell mutagens with low potency which contribute negligibly to human genetic risk provided the MAK value is observed. The following categories are presented for further discussion. 1. Germ cell mutagens which have been shown to increase the mutant frequency among the progeny of exposed humans. 2. Germ cell mutagens which have been shown to increase the mutant frequency among the progeny of exposed animals. 3 A. Substances which have been shown to induce genetic damage in germ cells of humans or animals, or which are mutagenic in somatic cells and have been shown to reach the germ cells in their active forms. 3 B. Substances which are suspected of being germ cell mutagens because of their genotoxic effects in mammalian somatic cells in vivo or, in exceptional cases in the absence of in vivo data, if they are clearly mutagenic in vitro and structurally related to in vivo mutagens. 4. not applicable (Category 4 was introduced for carcinogenic substances with nongenotoxic modes of action. By definition, germ cell mutagens are genotoxic. Therefore, a Category 4 for germ cell mutagens cannot exist.) 5. Germ cell mutagens, the potency of which is considered to be so low that, provided the MAK value is observed, their contribution to genetic risk is expected not to be significant.

Serosorting may increase the risk of HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men

Background: Serosorting, the practice of seeking to engage in unprotected anal intercourse with partners of the same HIV status as oneself, has been increasing among men who have sex with men. However, the effectiveness of serosorting as a strategy to reduce HIV risk is unclear, especially since it depends on the frequency of HIV testing. Methods: We estimated the relative risk of HIV acquisition associated with serosorting compared with not serosorting by using a mathematical model, informed by detailed behavioral data from a highly studied cohort of gay men. Results: We demonstrate that serosorting is unlikely to be highly beneficial in many populations of men who have sex with men, especially where the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infections is relatively high. We find that serosorting is only beneficial in reducing the relative risk of HIV transmission if the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infections is less than ∼20% and ∼40%, in populations of high (70%) and low (20%) treatment rates, respectively, even though treatment reduces the absolute risk of HIV transmission. Serosorting can be expected to lead to increased risk of HIV acquisition in many settings. In settings with low HIV testing rates serosorting can more than double the risk of HIV acquisition. Conclusions: Therefore caution should be taken before endorsing the practice of serosorting. It is very important to continue promotion of frequent HIV testing and condom use, particularly among people at high risk.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Reason of state and a new notion of fortune : Historicising the risk society

Since the 1980s the concept of risk has produced a large and diverse volume of sociological research. Ulrich Beck’s groundbreaking risk society thesis provides a particularly engaging contribution, since it seems that nearly every sociological account of risk engages with this work. For Beck, we are living in second modernity – a new epoch that breaks with pre-modernity and industrial society due to the centrality, incalculability and reflexivity of globalised risk. While Beck’s theory is compelling, a reading of other theorists such as Foucault (2007[1978]) and Hacking (1975,1990) suggests that a difficulty with Beck’s work is that in attempting to explain what is novel about risk in contemporary times, he too quickly passes over the complexities and ruptures of historical change that impact on the history and contingency of risk. This paper begins by presenting a brief analysis of the present state of risk by introducing Beck’s historical narrative of risk from pre-modernity to the risk society; it then outlines the challenges with the “risk as epoch” argument by considering a range of literature, which suggests risk has a more complex history than proposed by Beck; and finally it highlights the value in examining strategies of statecraft in early modern Europe, specifically Machiavelli’s The Prince (2008[1513]) and Giovanni Botero’s political treatise, Della Ragion di Stato (1956[1589]) – as a means of more thoroughly understanding how our current concept of risk emerges. In doing so, this paper seeks to open up new trajectories in the historicisation of risk for other interested scholars.

Feature selection using expected attainable discrimination

We propose expected attainable discrimination (EAD) as a measure to select discrete valued features for reliable discrimination between two classes of data. EAD is an average of the area under the ROC curves obtained when a simple histogram probability density model is trained and tested on many random partitions of a data set. EAD can be incorporated into various stepwise search methods to determine promising subsets of features, particularly when misclassification costs are difficult or impossible to specify. Experimental application to the problem of risk prediction in pregnancy is described.