Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

Otimização acústica e análise numérica do escoamento ao redor de um conjunto cilindro-placa separadora.

RESUMO Simulações de aeroacústica computacional demandam uma quantidade considerável de tempo, o que torna complicada a realização de estudos paramétricos. O presente trabalho propõe uma metodologia viável para otimização aeroacústica. Através da análise numérica utilizando dinâmica dos fluidos computacional, foi estudada a aplicação de uma placa separadora desacoplada como método de controle passivo da esteira turbulenta de um cilindro e avaliou-se a irradiação de ruído causado pela interação do escoamento com ambos os corpos, empregando ferramentas de aeroacústica computacional baseadas no método de Ffowcs-Williams e Hawkings. Algumas abordagens distintas de metodologias de otimização de projeto foram aplicadas neste problema, com o objetivo de chegar a uma configuração otimizada que permita a redução do nível sonoro ao longe. Assim, utilizando uma ferramenta de otimização multidisciplinar, pode-se avaliar a capacidade de modelos heurísticos e a grande vantagem do emprego de algoritmos baseados em método de superfície de resposta quando aplicados em um problema não linear, pois requerem a avaliação de um menor número de alternativas para se obter um ponto ótimo. Além disso, foi possível identificar e agrupar os resultados em 5 clusters baseados em seus parâmetros geométricos, nível de pressão sonora global e o valor quadrático médio do coeficiente de arrasto, confirmando a eficiência da aplicação de placas separadoras longas desacopladas posicionadas próximas ao cilindro na estabilização da esteira turbulenta, enquanto que o posicionamento de placas acima de um espaçamento crítico aumentou o nível de pressão acústica irradiado devido à formação de vórtices no espaço entre o cilindro e a placa separadora.

Reliability-based calibration for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking design procedure

Most pavement design procedures incorporate reliability to account for design inputs-associated uncertainty and variability effect on predicted performance. The load and resistance factor design (LRFD) procedure, which delivers economical section while considering design inputs variability separately, has been recognised as an effective tool to incorporate reliability into design procedures. This paper presents a new reliability-based calibration in LRFD format for a mechanics-based fatigue cracking analysis framework. This paper employs a two-component reliability analysis methodology that utilises a central composite design-based response surface approach and a first-order reliability method. The reliability calibration was achieved based on a number of field pavement sections that have well-documented performance history and high-quality field and laboratory data. The effectiveness of the developed LRFD procedure was evaluated by performing pavement designs of various target reliabilities and design conditions. The result shows an excellent agreement between the target and actual reliabilities. Furthermore, it is clear from the results that more design features need to be included in the reliability calibration to minimise the deviation of the actual reliability from the target reliability.

Análise das principais variáveis na flotação industrial do complexo de mineração de Tapira - MG

Faced with an agribusiness expansion scenario and the increase in fertilizer consumption due to the exponential growth of the population, it is necessary to make better use of existing reserves, by obtaining products of better quality and in adequate quantities to meet demand national. In Tapira Mining Complex, Vale Fertilizantes, the phosphate concentrate is produced with content of 35.0% P2O5 from ore with content of about 8.0% P2O5, which are intended to supply Complex Industrial Uberaba and Araxá Minero Chemical Complex for the production of fertilizers. The industrial flotation step responsible for the recovery of P2O5 and hence the viability of the business is divided into the crumbly, grainy and ultrathin circuits, and, friable and granular concentrate comprise the conventional concentrated. Today only 14.7% of the mass which feeds the mill product becomes, the remainder being considered losses in the process, and the larger mass losses are located in the waste of flotation, representing 42.3%. From 2012 to 2014, the daily global mass recovery processing plants varied from 12.4 to 15.9% while the daily metallurgical recovery of P2O5 from 48.7 to 82.4%. By the degree of variability, it appears that the plant operated under different conditions. Seen this, this study aimed to analyze the influence of operational and process variables in P2O5 mass and metallurgical recoveries of industrial flotation circuits of grainy, crumbly and ultrathin. And besides was made an analysis of the effect of ore variables, as degrees, hardnesse and the ore front 02 percentage, in global recoveries of processing plant and the effect of dosages of reagents in the recoveries obtained from the bench flotation using the experimental design methodology. All work was performed using the historical database of Vale Fertilizantes of Tapira-MG, where all independent variables were dimensionless as the experimental range used. To make the statistical analysis it used the response surface technique and the values of the independent variables that maximize recoveries were found by canonical analysis. In the study of industrial flotation circuit crispy were obtained from 41.3% mass recovery and 91.3% metallurgical recovery P2O5, good values for the circuit, and the highest recoveries occur for solids concentration of the new flotation power between 45 and 50%, which values are assigned to the residence time of the pulp in cells and industrial flotation columns. The greater the number of ore heaps resumed on the higher the mass recovery, but in this scenario flotation becomes unstable because there is enormous weight variation in the feed. Higher recoveries are obtained for mass depressant dosage exceeding 120 g / t for synthetic collector dosage of 11.6%. In the study of industrial flotation circuit of the granulate were obtained 28.3% to 79.4% mass recovery and metallurgical recovery of P2O5 being considered good values for the circuit. Higher recoveries are obtained when the front ore 02 percentage is above 90%, because the ore of this front have more clear apatite. Likewise recoveries increase when the level of pulp rougher step is highest due to the high mass of circulating step receives loads. In the analysis of industrial flotation circuit of the ultrafine were obtained 23.95% of mass recovery, and the same is maximized to depressant dosage and the top collector 420 and 300 g / t, respectively. The analysis of the influence of variables ore, it was observed that higher recoveries are obtained for ores with P2O5 content above 8.0%, Fe2O3 content in the order of 28% forward and 02 of ore percentage of 83%. Hard ore percentage has strong influence on recoveries due to mass division in the circuit that is linked to this variable. However, the hard ore percentage that maximizes recoveries was very close to the design capacity of the processing plant, which is 20%. Finally, the study of the bench flotation, has noted that in friable and granular circuits the highest recoveries are achieved for a collector dosage exceeding 250 g / t and the simultaneous increase of collector dosage and synthetic collector percentage contributes to the increase recovery in the flotation, but this scenario is suitable to produce a concentrate poorer in terms of P2O5 content, showing that higher recovery is not always the ideal scenario. Thus, the results show the values of variables that provide higher recoveries in the flotation and hence lower losses in the waste.

Mediators of the relationship between person-organisation fit and individual outcomes

To date, research on P-O fit has focused heavily on the effect of P-O fit on individual and organisational outcomes. Few studies have attempted to explain how or why P-O fit leads to these outcomes. Meglino, Ravlin, and Adkins (1989) and Schein (1985) identified several intervening mechanisms for explaining fit-outcome relationships but only few of these explanations have been tested empirically (Cable & Edwards, 2004; Edwards & Cable, 2009; Kalliath, Bluedorn, & Strube, 1999). This thesis investigates role conflict, cognitive style and organisational justice as three potential mediating mechanisms in the relationship between P-O fit (defined as fit between personal and organisational values – value congruence or value fit) and outcomes including job satisfaction, job performance, service performance, affective commitment and continuance commitment. The study operationalised P-O fit using three measures: subjective fit, perceived fit and objective fit. The mediation model of subjective fit was tested using a Mplus analytical technique, while the mediation models of both perceived and objective fit were tested by modeling the difference between two scores (that is, between personal values and organisational values) using a polynomial regression and response surface analysis (Edwards, 1993). A survey of 558 mid-level managers from seven Brunei public sector organisations provided the data. Our results showed that the relationship between P-O fit and outcomes was partially mediated by organisational justice and cognitive style - for all the three measures of fit, while role conflict had no mediating effects. The findings from this research therefore have both theoretical and practical implications. This research contributes to the literature by combining these theoretical explanations for value congruence effects into one integrated model, and by providing evidence on the partial mediating effects of organisational justice and cognitive style. Future research needs to address and investigate other potential mechanisms by which value congruence affects individual and organisational outcomes. In addition, the study is considered to be the first to test these mediating roles for a value fit-outcomes relationship using three different measures of fit in a non-Western context.

Servicescape symbolism

In order to drive sustainable financial profitability, service firms make significant investments in creating service environments that consumers will prefer over the environments of their competitors. To date, servicescape research is over-focused on understanding consumers’ emotional and physiological responses to servicescape attributes, rather than taking a holistic view of how consumers cognitively interpret servicescapes. This thesis argues that consumers will cognitively ascribe symbolic meanings to servicescapes and then evaluate if those meanings are congruent with their sense of Self in order to form a preference for a servicescape. Consequently, this thesis takes a Self Theory approach to servicescape symbolism to address the following broad research question: How do ascribed symbolic meanings influence servicescape preference? Using a three-study, mixed-method approach, this thesis investigates the symbolic meanings consumers ascribe to servicescapes and empirically tests whether the joint effects of congruence between consumer Self and the symbolic meanings ascribed to servicescapes influence consumers’ servicescape preference. First, Study One identifies the symbolic meanings ascribed to salient servicescape attributes using a combination of repertory tests and laddering techniques within 19 semi-structured individual depth interviews. Study Two modifies an existing scale to create a symbolic servicescape meaning scale in order to measure the symbolic meanings ascribed to servicescapes. Finally, Study Three utilises the Self-Congruity Model to empirically examine the joint effects of consumer Self and servicescape on consumers’ preference for servicescapes. Using polynomial regression with response surface analysis, 14 joint effect models demonstrate that both Self-Servicescape incongruity and congruity influence consumers’ preference for servicescapes. Combined, the findings of three studies suggest that the symbolic meanings ascribed to servicescapes and their (in)congruities with consumers’ sense of self can be used to predict consumers’ preferences for servicescapes. These findings have several key theoretical and practical contributions to services marketing.

The role of perceived usefulness and attitude on electronic health record acceptance

Information and communications technologies are a significant component of the healthcare domain, and electronic health records play a major role in it. Therefore, it is important that they are accepted en masse by healthcare professionals. How healthcare professionals perceive the usefulness of electronic health records and their attitudes towards them have been shown to have significant effects on the overall acceptance in many healthcare systems around the world. This paper investigates the role of perceived usefulness and attitude on the intention to use electronic health records by future healthcare professionals using polynomial regression with response surface analysis. Results show that the relationships between these variables are more complex than predicted in prior research. The paper concludes that the properties of the above determinants must be further investigated to clearly understand: (i) their role in predicting the intention to use electronic health records; and (ii) in designing systems that are better adopted by healthcare professionals of the future.

Purification of pharmaceuticals and nutraceutical compounds by sub- and supercritical extraction and chromatography

This thesis discusses the use of sub- and supercritical fluids as the medium in extraction and chromatography. Super- and subcritical extraction was used to separate essential oils from herbal plant Angelica archangelica. The effect of extraction parameters was studied and sensory analyses of the extracts were done by an expert panel. The results of the sensory analyses were compared to the analytically determined contents of the extracts. Sub- and supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC) was used to separate and purify high-value pharmaceuticals. Chiral SFC was used to separate the enantiomers of racemic mixtures of pharmaceutical compounds. Very low (cryogenic) temperatures were applied to substantially enhance the separation efficiency of chiral SFC. The thermodynamic aspects affecting the resolving ability of chiral stationary phases are briefly reviewed. The process production rate which is a key factor in industrial chromatography was optimized by empirical multivariate methods. General linear model was used to optimize the separation of omega-3 fatty acid ethyl esters from esterized fish oil by using reversed-phase SFC. Chiral separation of racemic mixtures of guaifenesin and ferulic acid dimer ethyl ester was optimized by using response surface method with three variables per time. It was found that by optimizing four variables (temperature, load, flowate and modifier content) the production rate of the chiral resolution of racemic guaifenesin by cryogenic SFC could be increased severalfold compared to published results of similar application. A novel pressure-compensated design of industrial high pressure chromatographic column was introduced, using the technology developed in building the deep-sea submersibles (Mir 1 and 2). A demonstration SFC plant was built and the immunosuppressant drug cyclosporine A was purified to meet the requirements of US Pharmacopoeia. A smaller semi-pilot size column with similar design was used for cryogenic chiral separation of aromatase inhibitor Finrozole for use in its development phase 2.

Ethylation of benzene: A statistical study

A central composite rotatable experimental design was constructed for a statistical study of the ethylation of benzene in the liquid phase, with aluminum chloride catalyst, in an agitated tank system. The conversion of benzene and ethylene and the yield of monoethyl- and diethylbenzene are characterized by the response surface technique. In the experimental range studied, agitation rate has no significant effect. Catalyst concentration, rate of ethylene Flow, and temperature are the influential factors. The response surfaces may be adequately approximated by planes.

Optimization of Helicopter Rotor Using Polynomial and Neural Network Metamodels

This study aims to determine optimal locations of dual trailing-edge flaps and blade stiffness to achieve minimum hub vibration levels in a helicopter, with low penalty in terms of required trailing-edge flap control power. An aeroelastic analysis based on finite elements in space and time is used in conjunction with an optimal control algorithm to determine the flap time history for vibration minimization. Using the aeroelastic analysis, it is found that the objective functions are highly nonlinear and polynomial response surface approximations cannot describe the objectives adequately. A neural network is then used for approximating the objective functions for optimization. Pareto-optimal points minimizing both helicopter vibration and flap power ale obtained using the response surface and neural network metamodels. The two metamodels give useful improved designs resulting in about 27% reduction in hub vibration and about 45% reduction in flap power. However, the design obtained using response surface is less sensitive to small perturbations in the design variables.

Robust Aeroelastic Optimization Of Composite Helicopter Rotor

A robust aeroelastic optimization is performed to minimize helicopter vibration with uncertainties in the design variables. Polynomial response surfaces and space-¯lling experimental designs are used to generate the surrogate model of aeroelastic analysis code. Aeroelastic simulations are performed at the sample inputs generated by Latin hypercube sampling. The response values which does not satisfy the frequency constraints are eliminated from the data for model ¯tting. This step increased the accuracy of response surface models in the feasible design space. It is found that the response surface models are able to capture the robust optimal regions of design space. The optimal designs show a reduction of 10 percent in the objective function comprising six vibratory hub loads and 1.5 to 80 percent reduction for the individual vibratory forces and moments. This study demonstrates that the second-order response surface models with space ¯lling-designs can be a favorable choice for computationally intensive robust aeroelastic optimization.

Robust design of multiple trailing edge flaps for helicopter vibration reduction: A multi-objective bat algorithm approach

The objective of this study is to determine an optimal trailing edge flap configuration and flap location to achieve minimum hub vibration levels and flap actuation power simultaneously. An aeroelastic analysis of a soft in-plane four-bladed rotor is performed in conjunction with optimal control. A second-order polynomial response surface based on an orthogonal array (OA) with 3-level design describes both the objectives adequately. Two new orthogonal arrays called MGB2P-OA and MGB4P-OA are proposed to generate nonlinear response surfaces with all interaction terms for two and four parameters, respectively. A multi-objective bat algorithm (MOBA) approach is used to obtain the optimal design point for the mutually conflicting objectives. MOBA is a recently developed nature-inspired metaheuristic optimization algorithm that is based on the echolocation behaviour of bats. It is found that MOBA inspired Pareto optimal trailing edge flap design reduces vibration levels by 73% and flap actuation power by 27% in comparison with the baseline design.

An Integrated Evolutionary Algorithm for Expensive Global Optimization

We propose an integrated algorithm named low dimensional simplex evolution extension (LDSEE) for expensive global optimization in which only a very limited number of function evaluations is allowed. The new algorithm accelerates an existing global optimization, low dimensional simplex evolution (LDSE), by using radial basis function (RBF) interpolation and tabu search. Different from other expensive global optimization methods, LDSEE integrates the RBF interpolation and tabu search with the LDSE algorithm rather than just calling existing global optimization algorithms as subroutines. As a result, it can keep a good balance between the model approximation and the global search. Meanwhile it is self-contained. It does not rely on other GO algorithms and is very easy to use. Numerical results show that it is a competitive alternative for expensive global optimization.

中国北方花粉--气候走势面研究及内蒙中部全新世环境变迁

本文在对中国北方表土花粉研究的基础上，采用多项式函数回归方法建造了中国北方松属(Pinus)、桦属(Betula)、栎属(Quercus)、蒿属(Artemisia)、藜科(Chenopodiaceae)、菊科(Compositae)、云杉属(Picea)、麻黄属(Ephedra)、禾本科(Gramineae)等的花粉——气候趋势面，从而为利用化石花粉资料直接恢复古气候、古环境提供了一种方便易行的方法;采用多元分析方法对内蒙古中部草原区表土花粉进行了主成分分析，探讨了草原区表土花粉组合的规律及与植被类型的关系;本文还应用孢粉分析方法，结合14C测年技术，通过内蒙古中部察素齐泥炭剖面高分辨率的化石花粉数据，初步恢复了大青山山地南部及土默特平原地区分辨率为70年的全新世以来植被演替和环境变迁的状况，并与邻近地区的全新世古气候、古环境进行了对比研究，研究发现，本区域全新世古环境的变迁序列基本上可以与周围地区及华北地区进行对比，其环境变迁经历了凉干～温湿～暖湿～温干～凉干的变化，且气候最适宜期出现在5000～4100aB.P.期间;最后，对利用花粉——气候趋势面方法恢复古气候进行了尝试和探讨，经与常规方法对比，表明利用趋势面模型重建古气候是一种行之有效的新方法。

Biology and distribution of grouper (Epinephelus coioides) in province waters (Abadan Bhrakan)

This survay has been done from Januray 2000 till May 2002 in Khouzestan costal waters. Four species of grouper were identified from which orange spotted grouper (Epinephelus coioides) was the dominant species. For studing environmental parameters and reproductive biology, age, growth parameters and mortality rate samples were collected by fishing ship. Samples were taken montly in 4 days by fishing traps and trawls. In addition, some samples were obtained from Khozestan fish landing centres. Environmental factors such as PH, 02, salinity, water temperature and depth of traping areas, were measured. To identify species, morphometric characteries of 452 individal fishes were measured. Stomach contents of 394 fish were has survaid, from which stomach of 226 fish, and 168 fish had empty stomachs. Percentage of empty stomachs (cv) in males was more than females. Food items found in 73 percent of stomach were crab (11%), shrimps (8.8%) , squids (3.9%), gastropods (17%) and bivalves (0.4%). Feeding intensity in year classes did not obay logic trends The importance relatively indicator (I.R.I) were 81, 9.9, 4, 1.5 and 0.3 percent for fish, crab, shrimp, squid, gastropod and bivalve respectively. For age determination, sagita otoliths of 450 fish were taken and countable sections were obtained from 425 specimens. Relative frequency distribution of opaque and transparent rings showed that each opaque growth ring generates once a year from November to September. It seemed that generation of opaque rings is affected by temperature and photoperiod changes. Correlation between length and age was calculated using Von Bertalanffy's least square method. Following equasion was obtaind: L(t) : 122.27 (1 e 0.146 (t+0.482)) Growth parameters were determined through by Ford Walford equasion and Response Surface and Shepherd subcommands in Elefan program and L00 and K amounts were have determined. Correlation between length and age of 635 fish was determined by gender . Length and age correlation was calculated by exponential model and between total length and standard length by straghit line model. Correlation between age and weight of sagita was calculated by total length and age. The most Correlation was between sagita weight and fish age (r=0.876). Total mortality rate (z) was estimated by Length Converthed Method , Jones and Vanzaling and Powel Wetherall. Total mortality rate was z=0.39. Natural mortality rate, using Pauly method was calculated M=0.32. Fishing mortality (F) was 0.08. Gonads of 425 fishes were surveid within 18 month, from which 363 were female, 46 were male and 16 were sex reversing individuals .Total length of females varied from 26 to 95.5 centimeters while males length varied from 56.5 to 107 centimeters. Sex reversing individuals had a length of 47.5 centimeters, when two years old and 62.5 centimeters at age of 3 years. From the mentioned 425 fish, 401 individuals were matured, containing 339 females and 62 males, 5.47 females against each male. Montly changes of Gonadosomatic Index (GSI) by total body weight and standard length and total body length showed that this index increases from march to May and maximum increase was in May . This experiment was adapted in spawning season. Potential, relative, and absoulate fecundity was estimated by counting eggs in three samples. Total amount of traped fish using special traps was 16182.18 kg from which Epinephelus coioides provided catching 15353.43 kg of it (91.27 %) and By catch was 141.18 kg (8.24 %). Total average CPUE for whole catch was 123.33 kg/day/vessel. Total amount of catch was estimated 232.04 tons, considering CPUE of total catch and total Khuzestan trap ships effort.