915 resultados para Relative risk aversion


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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To assess whether the combined analysis of all phase III trials of nonvitamin-K-antagonist (non-VKA) oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack shows a significant difference in efficacy or safety compared with warfarin. METHODS: We searched PubMed until May 31, 2012, for randomized clinical trials using the following search items: atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, warfarin, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack. Studies had to be phase III trials in atrial fibrillation patients comparing warfarin with a non-VKA currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. Analysis was performed on intention-to-treat basis. A fixed-effects model was used as more appropriate than a random-effects model when combining a small number of studies. RESULTS: Among 47 potentially eligible articles, 3 were included in the meta-analysis. In 14 527 patients, non-VKAs were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (odds ratios, 0.85 [95% CI, 074-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 14%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 134 over 1.8-2.0 years) compared with warfarin. Non-VKAs were also associated with a significant reduction of major bleeding compared with warfarin (odds ratios, 0.86 [95% CI, 075-0.99]; relative risk reduction, 13%; absolute risk reduction, 0.8%; number needed to treat, 125), mainly driven by the significant reduction of hemorrhagic stroke (odds ratios, 0.44 [95% CI, 032-0.62]; relative risk reduction, 57.9%; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; number needed to treat, 139). CONCLUSIONS: In the context of the significant limitations of combining the results of disparate trials of different agents, non-VKAs seem to be associated with a significant reduction in rates of stroke or systemic embolism, hemorrhagic stroke, and major bleeding when compared with warfarin in patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack.

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The ACCOMPLISH trial consists of a randomized morbidity-mortality study involving 11506 hypertensive patients at high cardiovascular risk, randomly allocated to a fixed dose combination containing an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (B, benazepril) and either a calcium antagonist (A, amlodipine) or a diuretic (HCTZ, hydrochlorothiazide). The target blood pressure (< 140/90 mmHg) was achieved after a 6 month titration period in 75.4% of patients receiving B+A, versus 72.4% in those on B + HCTZ. Over a mean follow-up of 3 years, the B + A drug regimen was found to reduce significantly more effectively the relative risk cardiovascular mortality (-20%), fatal and non fatal myocardial infarction (-22%) and coronary revascularization (-14%), appearing therefore particularly effective to prevent complications due to myocardial ischemia.

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BACKGROUND: Male carriers of the FMR1 premutation are at risk of developing the fragile X-associated tremor/ataxia syndrome (FXTAS), a newly recognised and largely under-diagnosed late onset neurodegenerative disorder. Patients affected with FXTAS primarily present with cerebellar ataxia and intention tremor. Cognitive decline has also been associated with the premutation, but the lack of data on its penetrance is a growing concern for clinicians who provide genetic counselling. METHODS: The Mattis Dementia Rating Scale (MDRS) was administered in a double blind fashion to 74 men aged 50 years or more recruited from fragile X families (35 premutation carriers and 39 intrafamilial controls) regardless of their clinical manifestation. Based on previous publications, marked cognitive impairment was defined by a score <or=123 on the MDRS. RESULTS: Both logistic and survival models confirmed that in addition to age and education level, premutation size plays a significant (p<0.01 and p<0.03 for logistic and survival model, respectively) role in cognitive impairment. The estimated penetrance of marked cognitive impairment in our sample (adjusted for the mean age 63.4 years and mean education level 9.7 years) for midsize/large (70-200 CGG) and small (55-69 CGG) premutation alleles was 33.3% (relative risk (RR) 6.5; p = 0.01) and 5.9% (RR 1.15; p = 0.9) respectively. Penetrance in the control group was 5.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Male carriers of midsize to large premutation alleles had a sixfold increased risk of developing cognitive decline and the risk increases with allele size. In addition, it was observed that cognitive impairment may precede motor symptoms. These data provide guidance for genetic counselling although larger samples are required to refine these estimates.

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PURPOSE: Patients diagnosed with a specific neoplasm tend to have a subsequent excess risk of the same neoplasm. The age incidence of a second neoplasm at the same site is approximately constant with age, and consequently the relative risk is greater at younger age. It is unclear whether such a line of reasoning can be extended from a specific neoplasm to the incidence of all neoplasms in subjects diagnosed with a defined neoplasm. METHODS: We considered the age-specific incidence of all non-hormone-related epithelial neoplasms after a first primary colorectal cancer (n = 9542) in the Vaud Cancer Registry data set. RESULTS: In subjects with a previous colorectal cancer, the incidence rate of all other epithelial non-hormone-related cancers was stable around 800 per 100,000 between age 30 and 60 years, and rose only about twofold to reach 1685 at age 70 to 79 years and 1826 per 100,000 at age 80 years or older. After excluding synchronous cancers, the rise was only about 1.5-fold, that is, from about 700 to 1000. In the general population, the incidence rate of all epithelial non-hormone-related cancers was 29 per 100,000 at age 30 to 39 years, and rose 30-fold to 883 per 100,000 at age 70 to 79 years. Excluding colorectal cancers, the rise of all non-hormone-related cancers was from 360 per 100,000 at age 40 to 49 years to 940 at age 70 to 79 years after colorectal cancer, and from 90 to 636 per 100,000 in the general population (i.e., 2.6- vs. 7.1-fold). CONCLUSIONS: The rise of incidence with age of all epithelial non-hormone-related second cancers after colorectal cancer is much smaller than in the general population. This can possibly be related to the occurrence of a single mutational event in a population of susceptible individuals, although alternative models are plausible within the complexity of the process of carcinogenesis.

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In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

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To evaluate sex differences in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression before (pre-1997) and after (1997-2006) introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy, the authors used data from a collaboration of 23 HIV seroconverter cohort studies from Europe, Australia, and Canada restricted to the 6,923 seroconverters infected through injecting drug use and sex between men and women. Within a competing risk framework, they used Cox proportional hazards models allowing for late entry to evaluate sex differences in time from HIV seroconversion to death, to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and to each first AIDS-defining disease and death without AIDS. While no significant sex differences were found before 1997, from 1997 onward, women had a lower risk of AIDS (adjusted cumulative relative risk (aCRR) = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63, 0.90) and death (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.82) than men did. Compared with men, women also had lower risks of AIDS dementia complex (aCRR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.74), tuberculosis (aCRR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.92), Kaposi's sarcoma (aCRR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.99), lymphomas (aCRR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.96), and death without AIDS (aCRR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.98). Sex differences in HIV disease progression have become larger and statistically significant in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy, supporting a stronger impact of health interventions among women.

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In order to raise public awareness of the importance of early detection of airway obstruction and to enable many people who had not been tested previously to have their lung function measured, the European Lung Foundation and the European Respiratory Society (ERS) organised a spirometry testing tent during the annual ERS Congresses in 2004-2009. Spirometry was performed during the ERS Congresses in volunteers; all participants answered a simple, brief questionnaire on their descriptive characteristics, smoking and asthma. Portable spirometers were freely provided by the manufacturer. Nurses and doctors from pulmonary departments of local hospitals/universities gave their service for free. Lower limit of normal (LLN) and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria for diagnosing and grading airway obstruction were used. Of 12,448 participants in six congress cities, 10,395 (83.5%) performed acceptable spirometry (mean age 51.0 ± 18.4 yrs; 25.5% smokers; 5.5% asthmatic). Airway obstruction was present in 12.4% of investigated subjects according to LLN criteria and 20.3% according to GOLD criteria. Through multinomial logistic regression analysis, age, smoking habits and asthma were significant risk factors for airway obstruction. Relative risk ratio and 95% confidence interval for LLN stage I, for example, was 2.9 (2.0-4.1) for the youngest age (≤ 19 yrs), 1.9 (1.2-3.0) for the oldest age (≥ 80 yrs), 2.4 (2.0-2.9) for current smokers and 2.8 (2.2-3.6) for reported asthma diagnosis. In addition to being a useful advocacy tool, the spirometry tent represents an unusual occasion for early detection of airway obstruction in large numbers of city residents with an important public health perspective.

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BACKGROUND: The strength of the association between intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired nosocomial infections (NIs) and mortality might differ according to the methodological approach taken. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between ICU-acquired NIs and mortality using the concept of population-attributable fraction (PAF) for patient deaths caused by ICU-acquired NIs in a large cohort of critically ill patients. SETTING: Eleven ICUs of a French university hospital. DESIGN: We analyzed surveillance data on ICU-acquired NIs collected prospectively during the period from 1995 through 2003. The primary outcome was mortality from ICU-acquired NI stratified by site of infection. A matched-pair, case-control study was performed. Each patient who died before ICU discharge was defined as a case patient, and each patient who survived to ICU discharge was defined as a control patient. The PAF was calculated after adjustment for confounders by use of conditional logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 8,068 ICU patients, a total of 1,725 deceased patients were successfully matched with 1,725 control patients. The adjusted PAF due to ICU-acquired NI for patients who died before ICU discharge was 14.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.4%-14.8%). Stratified by the type of infection, the PAF was 6.1% (95% CI, 5.7%-6.5%) for pulmonary infection, 3.2% (95% CI, 2.8%-3.5%) for central venous catheter infection, 1.7% (95% CI, 0.9%-2.5%) for bloodstream infection, and 0.0% (95% CI, -0.4% to 0.4%) for urinary tract infection. CONCLUSIONS: ICU-acquired NI had an important effect on mortality. However, the statistical association between ICU-acquired NI and mortality tended to be less pronounced in findings based on the PAF than in study findings based on estimates of relative risk. Therefore, the choice of methods does matter when the burden of NI needs to be assessed.

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Objective To compute the burden of cancer attributable to current and former alcohol consumption in eight European countries based on direct relative risk estimates from a cohort study. Design Combination of prospective cohort study with representative population based data on alcohol exposure. Setting Eight countries (France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Greece, Germany, Denmark) participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Participants 109 118 men and 254 870 women, mainly aged 37-70. Main outcome measures Hazard rate ratios expressing the relative risk of cancer incidence for former and current alcohol consumption among EPIC participants. Hazard rate ratios combined with representative information on alcohol consumption to calculate alcohol attributable fractions of causally related cancers by country and sex. Partial alcohol attributable fractions for consumption higher than the recommended upper limit (two drinks a day for men with about 24 g alcohol, one for women with about 12 g alcohol) and the estimated total annual number of cases of alcohol attributable cancer. Results If we assume causality, among men and women, 10% (95% confidence interval 7 to 13%) and 3% (1 to 5%) of the incidence of total cancer was attributable to former and current alcohol consumption in the selected European countries. For selected cancers the figures were 44% (31 to 56%) and 25% (5 to 46%) for upper aerodigestive tract, 33% (11 to 54%) and 18% (−3 to 38%) for liver, 17% (10 to 25%) and 4% (−1 to 10%) for colorectal cancer for men and women, respectively, and 5.0% (2 to 8%) for female breast cancer. A substantial part of the alcohol attributable fraction in 2008 was associated with alcohol consumption higher than the recommended upper limit: 33 037 of 178 578 alcohol related cancer cases in men and 17 470 of 397 043 alcohol related cases in women. Conclusions In western Europe, an important proportion of cases of cancer can be attributable to alcohol consumption, especially consumption higher than the recommended upper limits. These data support current political efforts to reduce or to abstain from alcohol consumption to reduce the incidence of cancer.

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The clinical and epidemiological characteristics, adverse events, treatment adherence and effectiveness of isoniazid chemoprophylaxis were analyzed in a cohort of 138 tuberculosis/HIV-coinfected patients. An open, non-randomized, pragmatic prophylactic trial was conducted on adult patients with a normal chest X-ray and positive tuberculin skin test (> 5 mm) who received isoniazid chemoprophylaxis (300 mg/day) for six months. The mean of follow up was 2.8 years (SD 1.3). Adherence to chemoprophylaxis was 87.7% (121/138). Only one patient presented tuberculosis after the end of chemoprophylaxis, corresponding to 0.3 cases per 100 persons per year. The relative risk of some adverse effects was 4.6 times higher (95% CI: 1.9-11.5) in patients with positive anti-HCV serology (4/9, 44.4%) compared to those with negative serology (12/129, 9.6%) (p = 0.002). This study provides evidence regarding the effectiveness and safety of a short and self-administered isoniazid regimen. We recommend the implementation of this routine by health service practitioners.

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Background. In cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) patients, fibrinolysis may enhance postoperative inflammatory response. We aimed to determine whether an additional postoperative dose of antifibrinolytic tranexamic acid (TA) reduced CPB-mediated inflammatory response (IR). Methods. We performed a randomized, double-blind, dose-dependent, parallel-groups study of elective CPB patients receiving TA. Patients were randomly assigned to either the single-dose group (40 mg/Kg TA before CPB and placebo after CPB) or the double-dose group (40 mg/Kg TA before and after CPB). Results. 160 patients were included, 80 in each group. The incident rate of IR was significantly lower in the double-dose-group TA2 (7.5% vs. 18.8% in the single-dose group TA1; P = 0.030). After adjusting for hypertension, total protamine dose and temperature after CPB, TA2 showed a lower risk of IR compared with TA1 [OR: 0.29 (95% CI: 0.10-0.83), (P = 0.013)]. Relative risk for IR was 2.5 for TA1 (95% CI: 1.02 to 6.12). The double-dose group had significantly lower chest tube bleeding at 24 hours [671 (95% CI 549-793 vs. 826 (95% CI 704-949) mL; P = 0.01 corrected-P significant] and lower D-dimer levels at 24 hours [489 (95% CI 437-540) vs. 621(95% CI: 563-679) ng/mL; P = 0.01 corrected-P significant]. TA2 required lower levels of norepinephrine at 24 h [0.06 (95% CI: 0.03-0.09) vs. 0.20(95 CI: 0.05-0.35) after adjusting for dobutamine [F = 6.6; P = 0.014 corrected-P significant]. We found a significant direct relationship between IL-6 and temperature (rho = 0.26; P < 0.01), D-dimer (rho = 0.24; P < 0.01), norepinephrine (rho = 0.33; P < 0.01), troponin I (rho = 0.37; P < 0.01), Creatine-Kinase (rho = 0.37; P < 0.01), Creatine Kinase-MB (rho = 0.33; P < 0.01) and lactic acid (rho = 0.46; P < 0.01) at ICU arrival. Two patients (1.3%) had seizure, 3 patients (1.9%) had stroke, 14 (8.8%) had acute kidney failure, 7 (4.4%) needed dialysis, 3 (1.9%) suffered myocardial infarction and 9 (5.6%) patients died. We found no significant differences between groups regarding these events. Conclusions. Prolonged inhibition of fibrinolysis, using an additional postoperative dose of tranexamic acid reduces inflammatory response and postoperative bleeding (but not transfusion requirements) in CPB patients. A question which remains unanswered is whether the dose used was ideal in terms of safety, but not in terms of effectiveness.

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The variation with latitude of incidence and mortality for cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in the non-Maori population of New Zealand was assessed. For those aged 20 to 74 years, the effects of age, time period, birth-cohort, gender, and region (latitude), and some interactions between them were evaluated by log-linear regression methods. Increasing age-standardized incidence and mortality rates with increasing proximity to the equator were found for men and women. These latitude gradients were greater for males than females. The relative risk of melanoma in the most southern part of New Zealand (latitude 44 degrees S) compared with the most northern region (latitude 36 degrees S) was 0.63 (95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 0.60-0.67) for incidence and 0.76 (CI = 0.68-0.86) for mortality, both genders combined. The mean percentage change in CMM rates per degree of latitude for males was greater than those reported in other published studies. Differences between men and women in melanoma risk with latitude suggest that regional sun-behavior patterns or other risk factors may contribute to the latitude gradient observed.

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The ADVANCE study is a morbidity-mortality double-blind trial carried out in normotensive or hypertensive patients with type 2 diabetes. The patients were randomly assigned to receive containing a fixed-combination tablet of an ACE inhibitor (perindopril) with a diuretic (indapamide) (4 mg/l,250 mg, n=5569), or placebo (n=5571), administered if needed on top of other blood pressure lowering agents. Significant reductions in the relative risk of death from cardiovascular disease (18%), total coronary events (14%), and total renal events (21%) were observed. Thus, in patients with type 2 diabetes, a drug regimen based on a fixed-dose combination of perindopril/ indapamide affords major protection against both the macro and microvascular complications. L'étude ADVANCE est un essai clinique de morbidité-mortalité réalisé en double insu chez des malades avec diabète de type 2 normo ou hypertendus. Les malades ont été alloués au hasard pour un suivi moyen de 4,3 ans à un traitement comportant soit une association fixe de l'inhibiteur de l'ECA périndopril et du diurétique indapamide (4 mg/1,250 mg, n = 5569), soit un placebo (n = 5571), ceci en plus si nécessaire d'autres médicaments antihypertenseurs. Des réductions significatives du risque relatif ont été observées sous périndopril/indapamide, en particulier de la mortalité cardiovasculaire (18%), de l'ensemble des événements coronaires (14%) et rénaux (21%). Ainsi chez le malade avec diabète de type 2, un traitement basé sur une association de périndopril et d'indapamide à doses fixes a un effet protecteur majeur contre les complications macro et microvasculaires.

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BACKGROUND Spain shows the highest bladder cancer incidence rates in men among European countries. The most important risk factors are tobacco smoking and occupational exposure to a range of different chemical substances, such as aromatic amines. METHODS This paper describes the municipal distribution of bladder cancer mortality and attempts to "adjust" this spatial pattern for the prevalence of smokers, using the autoregressive spatial model proposed by Besag, York and Molliè, with relative risk of lung cancer mortality as a surrogate. RESULTS It has been possible to compile and ascertain the posterior distribution of relative risk for bladder cancer adjusted for lung cancer mortality, on the basis of a single Bayesian spatial model covering all of Spain's 8077 towns. Maps were plotted depicting smoothed relative risk (RR) estimates, and the distribution of the posterior probability of RR>1 by sex. Towns that registered the highest relative risks for both sexes were mostly located in the Provinces of Cadiz, Seville, Huelva, Barcelona and Almería. The highest-risk area in Barcelona Province corresponded to very specific municipal areas in the Bages district, e.g., Suría, Sallent, Balsareny, Manresa and Cardona. CONCLUSION Mining/industrial pollution and the risk entailed in certain occupational exposures could in part be dictating the pattern of municipal bladder cancer mortality in Spain. Population exposure to arsenic is a matter that calls for attention. It would be of great interest if the relationship between the chemical quality of drinking water and the frequency of bladder cancer could be studied.

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BACKGROUND Cerebral oedema is associated with significant neurological damage in patients with traumatic brain injury. Bradykinin is an inflammatory mediator that may contribute to cerebral oedema by increasing the permeability of the blood-brain barrier. We evaluated the safety and effectiveness of the non-peptide bradykinin B2 receptor antagonist Anatibant in the treatment of patients with traumatic brain injury. During the course of the trial, funding was withdrawn by the sponsor. METHODS Adults with traumatic brain injury and a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 12 or less, who had a CT scan showing an intracranial abnormality consistent with trauma, and were within eight hours of their injury were randomly allocated to low, medium or high dose Anatibant or to placebo. Outcomes were Serious Adverse Events (SAE), mortality 15 days following injury and in-hospital morbidity assessed by the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the Disability Rating Scale (DRS) and a modified version of the Oxford Handicap Scale (HIREOS). RESULTS 228 patients out of a planned sample size of 400 patients were randomised. The risk of experiencing one or more SAEs was 26.4% (43/163) in the combined Anatibant treated group, compared to 19.3% (11/57) in the placebo group (relative risk = 1.37; 95% CI 0.76 to 2.46). All cause mortality in the Anatibant treated group was 19% and in the placebo group 15.8% (relative risk 1.20, 95% CI 0.61 to 2.36). The mean GCS at discharge was 12.48 in the Anatibant treated group and 13.0 in the placebo group. Mean DRS was 11.18 Anatibant versus 9.73 placebo, and mean HIREOS was 3.94 Anatibant versus 3.54 placebo. The differences between the mean levels for GCS, DRS and HIREOS in the Anatibant and placebo groups, when adjusted for baseline GCS, showed a non-significant trend for worse outcomes in all three measures. CONCLUSION This trial did not reach the planned sample size of 400 patients and consequently, the study power to detect an increase in the risk of serious adverse events was reduced. This trial provides no reliable evidence of benefit or harm and a larger trial would be needed to establish safety and effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN23625128.