793 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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This paper presents an InfoStation-based multi-agent system facilitating a Car Parking Locator service provision within a University Campus. The system network architecture is outlined, illustrating its functioning during the service provision. A detailed description of the Car Parking Locator service is given and the system entities’ interaction is described. System implementation approaches are also considered.

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This paper presents an adaptable InfoStation-based multi-agent system facilitating the mobile eLearning (mLearning) service provision within a University Campus. A horizontal view of the network architecture is presented. Main communications scenarios are considered by describing the detailed interaction of the system entities involved in the mLearning service provision. The mTest service is explored as a practical example. System implementation approaches are also considered.

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Background: The aim of this study was to describe bilateral visual outcomes and the effect of incomplete follow-up after 3 years of ranibizumab therapy for neovascular age-related macular degeneration. Secondarily, the demands on service provision over a 3-year period were described. Methods: Data on visual acuity, hospital visits, and injections were collected over 36 months on consecutive patients commencing treatment over a 9-month period. Visual outcome was determined for 1) all patients, using last observation carried forward for missed visits due to early discontinuation and 2) only those patients completing full 36-month follow-up. Results: Over 3 years, 120 patients cumulatively attended hospital for 1,823 noninjection visits and 1,365 injection visits. A visual acuity loss of <15 letters (L) was experienced by 78.2% of patients. For all patients (n=120), there was a mean loss of 1.68 L using last observation carried forward for missing values. Excluding five patients who died and 30 who discontinued follow-up, mean gain was 1.47 L. In bilateral cases, final acuity was on average 9 L better in second eyes compared to first eyes. Also, 91% of better-seeing eyes continued to be the better-seeing eye. Conclusion: We have demonstrated our approach to describing the long-term service provision and visual outcomes of ranibizumab therapy for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in a consecutive cohort of patients. Although there was a heavy burden with very frequent injections and clinic visits, patients can expect a good level of visual stability and a very high chance of maintaining their better-seeing eye for up to 3 years. © 2014 Chavan et al. This work is published by Dove Medical Press Limited.

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Neuropsychiatry services provide specialist input into the assessment and management of behavioral symptoms associated with a range of neurological conditions, including epilepsy. Despite the centrality of epilepsy to neuropsychiatry and the recent expansion of neuropsychiatry service provision, little is known about the clinical characteristics of patients with epilepsy who are routinely seen by a specialist neuropsychiatry service. This retrospective study filled this gap by retrospectively evaluating a naturalistic series of 60 consecutive patients with epilepsy referred to and assessed within a neuropsychiatry setting. Fifty-two patients (86.7%) had active epilepsy and were under the ongoing care of the referring neurologist for seizure management. The majority of patients (N = 42; 70.0%) had a diagnosis of localization-related epilepsy, with temporal lobe epilepsy as the most common epilepsy type (N = 37; 61.7%). Following clinical assessment, 39 patients (65.0%) fulfilled formal diagnostic criteria for at least one psychiatric disorder; nonepileptic attack disorder (N = 37; 61.7%), major depression (N = 23; 38.3%), and generalized anxiety disorder (N = 16; 26.7%) were the most commonly diagnosed comorbidities. The clinical characteristics of patients seen in specialist neuropsychiatry settings are in line with the results from previous studies in neurology clinics in terms of both epilepsy and psychiatric comorbidity. Our findings confirm the need for the development and implementation of structured care pathways for the neuropsychiatric aspects of epilepsy, with focus on comorbid nonepileptic attacks and affective and anxiety symptoms. This is of particular importance in consideration of the impact of behavioral symptoms on patients' health-related quality of life.

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Adoption of special needs children is now seen as a life long event whereby the adoptive child and family have unique needs. The need for postplacement resources throughout the life cycle of the adoption process is evident. This exploratory-descriptive research employed a random stratified cross-sectional design. The purpose of the study was to describe, identify, examine, and assess the relative influence of identified empirically and conceptually relevant variables of self-report experiences of adoptive parents of special needs children. Primary areas of exploration included: (1) adoptive children and families' characteristics, (2) postplacement service needs, utilization and satisfaction, and (3) adoptive parents' perceptions of their adoption experiences. A proportionate stratified random mail survey was used to obtain 474 families who had adopted special needs children from the 15 geographic districts which make up the state adoption social service agency in Florida. A 144-item survey questionnaire was used to collect basic information on demographic data, service provision, and adoption experiences. Four research questions were analyzed to test the effect the predictor variables had on willingness to adopt another special needs child, successful adoption, satisfying experience, and realism about problems. All four research questions revealed that the full model and the child's antecedent and the adoptive parents' intervening variable blocks were significant in explaining the variance in the dependent variables. The child's intervening variables alone were only significant in explaining the variance for one of the dependent variables. The results of the statistical analysis on the fifth research question and the three hypotheses determined that (1) only one postplacement service, crisis intervention, had a statistically significant impact on the adoptive parents' perceived level of satisfaction with the adoption experience; (2) adoptive parents who rate their adoption as successful are more likely to express a desire to adopt another special needs child; (3) the more adequate information on the child the adoptive parents perceived that they had prior to placement, the more they perceived they were realistic about the problems they would encounter; and (4) six specific postplacement services were found to be significant in predicting successful adoptions--crisis intervention, outpatient drug/alcohol treatment, maintenance subsidy, physical therapy, special medical equipment, and family counseling. Implications for the social work field and future research are discussed. ^

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The work motivation construct is central to the theory and practice of many social science disciplines. Yet, due to the novelty of validated measures appropriate for a deep cross-national comparison, studies that contrast different administrative regimes remain scarce. This study represents an initial empirical effort to validate the Public Service Motivation (PSM) instrument proposed by Kim and colleagues (2013) in a previously unstudied context. The two former communist countries analyzed in this dissertation—Belarus and Poland— followed diametrically opposite development strategies: a fully decentralized administrative regime in Poland and a highly centralized regime in Belarus. The employees (n = 677) of public and nonprofit organizations in the border regions of Podlaskie Wojewodstwo (Poland) and Hrodna Voblasc (Belarus) are the subjects of study. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed three dimensions of public service motivation in the two regions: compassion, self-sacrifice, and attraction to public service. The statistical models tested in this dissertation suggest that nonprofit sector employees exhibit higher levels of PSM than their public sector counterparts. Nonprofit sector employees also reveal a similar set of values and work attitudes across the countries. Thus, the study concludes that in terms of PSM, employees of nonprofit organizations constitute a homogenous group that exists atop the administrative regimes. However, the findings propose significant differences between public sector agencies across the two countries. Contrary to expectations, data suggest that organization centralization in Poland is equal to—or for some items even higher than—that of Belarus. We can conclude that the absence of administrative decentralization of service provision in a country does not necessarily undermine decentralized practices within organizations. Further analysis reveals strong correlations between organization centralization and PSM for the Polish sample. Meanwhile, in Belarus, correlations between organization centralization items and PSM are weak and mostly insignificant. The analysis indicates other factors beyond organization centralization that significantly impact PSM in both sectors. PSM of the employees in the studied region is highly correlated with their participation in religious practices, political parties, or labor unions as well as location of their organization in a capital and type of social service provided.

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This paper deals of the effects generated by institutional designs in the behavior of political actors. The literature that discusses the implications of federal arrangements in the production of public policies to dock at two opposing arguments: (1) the federal configuration would cause dispersion and variation in service provision between subnational governments; and (2) the central government would own mechanisms to induce the provision of national policies in more homogeneous levels, similar to unitary states. The research is part of this discussion because it analyzes the effects of the institutional design of the Sistema Único de Assistência Social (SUAS) in the decisions of states in Brazil. Therefore, we analyzed the institutional capacity built by the 26 state governments after the implementation of SUAS, conceiving this system as defined mechanism of government functions and federative cooperation.It is argued that the existence of a heterogeneous institutional capacity of state governments in social assistance is a result of the autonomy contained in the institutional design of SUAS to this level of government. This freedom of action relativize the idea that the implementation of national public policy systems would generate positive (or homogeneous) effects in all subnational governments, at the same time as it preclude to generalize the premise of fragility of the states in the brazilian federal plan.

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La population canadienne-française a une histoire démographique unique faisant d’elle une population d’intérêt pour l’épidémiologie et la génétique. Cette thèse vise à mettre en valeur les caractéristiques de la population québécoise qui peuvent être utilisées afin d’améliorer la conception et l’analyse d’études d’épidémiologie génétique. Dans un premier temps, nous profitons de la présence d’information généalogique détaillée concernant les Canadiens français pour estimer leur degré d’apparentement et le comparer au degré d’apparentement génétique. L’apparentement génétique calculé à partir du partage génétique identique par ascendance est corrélé à l’apparentement généalogique, ce qui démontre l'utilité de la détection des segments identiques par ascendance pour capturer l’apparentement complexe, impliquant entre autres de la consanguinité. Les conclusions de cette première étude pourront guider l'interprétation des résultats dans d’autres populations ne disposant pas d’information généalogique. Dans un deuxième temps, afin de tirer profit pleinement du potentiel des généalogies canadienne-françaises profondes, bien conservées et quasi complètes, nous présentons le package R GENLIB, développé pour étudier de grands ensembles de données généalogiques. Nous étudions également le partage identique par ascendance à l’aide de simulations et nous mettons en évidence le fait que la structure des populations régionales peut faciliter l'identification de fondateurs importants, qui auraient pu introduire des mutations pathologiques, ce qui ouvre la porte à la prévention et au dépistage de maladies héréditaires liées à certains fondateurs. Finalement, puisque nous savons que les Canadiens français ont accumulé des segments homozygotes, à cause de la présence de consanguinité lointaine, nous estimons la consanguinité chez les individus canadiens-français et nous étudions son impact sur plusieurs traits de santé. Nous montrons comment la dépression endogamique influence des traits complexes tels que la grandeur et des traits hématologiques. Nos résultats ne sont que quelques exemples de ce que nous pouvons apprendre de la population canadienne-française. Ils nous aideront à mieux comprendre les caractéristiques des autres populations de même qu’ils pourront aider la recherche en épidémiologie génétique au sein de la population canadienne-française.

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Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

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Inequalities in oral healthcare service provision to people with special health needs have been reported in the Republic of Ireland. These include higher unmet dental treatment needs and longer waiting period to access routine dental treatment than the general population. Aim: The aims of this study were to determine the groups of patients with special needs which pose a challenge to manage in the dental surgery and to examine perceived barriers to the care of these patients. We aimed to determine whether postgraduate training in the management of these patients increases the practitioners’ frequency of treatment and their desire for further training in this area. Methods: A questionnaire was used to survey 326 randomly selected dentists from the Dental Council’s register of dentists. Questionnaire and information sheets explaining the purpose of the survey, confidentiality and anonymity of the responses were posted to the dentists. Results: The results showed that children with intellectual disability posed the biggest challenge for dentists to manage in the dental surgery. Behaviour management issues and the degree of disability were perceived by many dentists as factors that would have high effects on their willingness to treat patients with special needs. Dentists who have postgraduate training in the management of patients with special needs were significantly more willing to treat these patients and to seek additional training in the future. Conclusion: There are links between the training and the willingness of practitioners to undertake dental treatment or patients with special healthcare needs.

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La population canadienne-française a une histoire démographique unique faisant d’elle une population d’intérêt pour l’épidémiologie et la génétique. Cette thèse vise à mettre en valeur les caractéristiques de la population québécoise qui peuvent être utilisées afin d’améliorer la conception et l’analyse d’études d’épidémiologie génétique. Dans un premier temps, nous profitons de la présence d’information généalogique détaillée concernant les Canadiens français pour estimer leur degré d’apparentement et le comparer au degré d’apparentement génétique. L’apparentement génétique calculé à partir du partage génétique identique par ascendance est corrélé à l’apparentement généalogique, ce qui démontre l'utilité de la détection des segments identiques par ascendance pour capturer l’apparentement complexe, impliquant entre autres de la consanguinité. Les conclusions de cette première étude pourront guider l'interprétation des résultats dans d’autres populations ne disposant pas d’information généalogique. Dans un deuxième temps, afin de tirer profit pleinement du potentiel des généalogies canadienne-françaises profondes, bien conservées et quasi complètes, nous présentons le package R GENLIB, développé pour étudier de grands ensembles de données généalogiques. Nous étudions également le partage identique par ascendance à l’aide de simulations et nous mettons en évidence le fait que la structure des populations régionales peut faciliter l'identification de fondateurs importants, qui auraient pu introduire des mutations pathologiques, ce qui ouvre la porte à la prévention et au dépistage de maladies héréditaires liées à certains fondateurs. Finalement, puisque nous savons que les Canadiens français ont accumulé des segments homozygotes, à cause de la présence de consanguinité lointaine, nous estimons la consanguinité chez les individus canadiens-français et nous étudions son impact sur plusieurs traits de santé. Nous montrons comment la dépression endogamique influence des traits complexes tels que la grandeur et des traits hématologiques. Nos résultats ne sont que quelques exemples de ce que nous pouvons apprendre de la population canadienne-française. Ils nous aideront à mieux comprendre les caractéristiques des autres populations de même qu’ils pourront aider la recherche en épidémiologie génétique au sein de la population canadienne-française.

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The institutional turn in metropolitan governance has been influenced to a considerable degree by a rational choice approach, which views metropolitan governance as essentially created by local actors to reduce the transaction costs of inter-jurisdictional public-service provision. Another influential theoretical route follows a historical approach, which emphasizes the role of the state structure in producing formal institutions to enable governance at the regional level. Both approaches tend to be formalistic, simplistic and deterministic in nature, thus neglecting the dynamic interactions between the actors and their more informal, intangible, yet more basic, legitimate institutions, such as culture. This article examines the dynamic role of culture in metropolitan governance building in the context of decentralizing Indonesia. The analysis focuses on ‘best-practice’ experiences of metropolitan cooperation in greater Yogyakarta, where three neighbouring local governments known as Kartamantul have collaboratively performed cross-border infrastructure development to deal with the consequences of extended urbanization. We draw on sociological institutionalism to argue that building this metropolitan cooperation has its roots in the capacity of the actors to use and mobilize culture as a resource for collaborative action.

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Knight M, Acosta C, Brocklehurst P, Cheshire A, Fitzpatrick K, Hinton L, Jokinen M, Kemp B, Kurinczuk JJ, Lewis G, Lindquist A, Locock L, Nair M, Patel N, Quigley M, Ridge D, Rivero-Arias O, Sellers S, Shah A on behalf of the UKNeS coapplicant group. Background Studies of maternal mortality have been shown to result in important improvements to women’s health. It is now recognised that in countries such as the UK, where maternal deaths are rare, the study of near-miss severe maternal morbidity provides additional information to aid disease prevention, treatment and service provision. Objectives To (1) estimate the incidence of specific near-miss morbidities; (2) assess the contribution of existing risk factors to incidence; (3) describe different interventions and their impact on outcomes and costs; (4) identify any groups in which outcomes differ; (5) investigate factors associated with maternal death; (6) compare an external confidential enquiry or a local review approach for investigating quality of care for affected women; and (7) assess the longer-term impacts. Methods Mixed quantitative and qualitative methods including primary national observational studies, database analyses, surveys and case studies overseen by a user advisory group. Setting Maternity units in all four countries of the UK. Participants Women with near-miss maternal morbidities, their partners and comparison women without severe morbidity. Main outcome measures The incidence, risk factors, management and outcomes of uterine rupture, placenta accreta, haemolysis, elevated liver enzymes and low platelets (HELLP) syndrome, severe sepsis, amniotic fluid embolism and pregnancy at advanced maternal age (≥ 48 years at completion of pregnancy); factors associated with progression from severe morbidity to death; associations between severe maternal morbidity and ethnicity and socioeconomic status; lessons for care identified by local and external review; economic evaluation of interventions for management of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH); women’s experiences of near-miss maternal morbidity; long-term outcomes; and models of maternity care commissioned through experience-led and standard approaches. Results Women and their partners reported long-term impacts of near-miss maternal morbidities on their physical and mental health. Older maternal age and caesarean delivery are associated with severe maternal morbidity in both current and future pregnancies. Antibiotic prescription for pregnant or postpartum women with suspected infection does not necessarily prevent progression to severe sepsis, which may be rapidly progressive. Delay in delivery, of up to 48 hours, may be safely undertaken in women with HELLP syndrome in whom there is no fetal compromise. Uterine compression sutures are a cost-effective second-line therapy for PPH. Medical comorbidities are associated with a fivefold increase in the odds of maternal death from direct pregnancy complications. External reviews identified more specific clinical messages for care than local reviews. Experience-led commissioning may be used as a way to commission maternity services. Limitations This programme used observational studies, some with limited sample size, and the possibility of uncontrolled confounding cannot be excluded. Conclusions Implementation of the findings of this research could prevent both future severe pregnancy complications as well as improving the outcome of pregnancy for women. One of the clearest findings relates to the population of women with other medical and mental health problems in pregnancy and their risk of severe morbidity. Further research into models of pre-pregnancy, pregnancy and postnatal care is clearly needed.

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Report on Evidential Base and Clinical Practice Aspects of Congenital Cardiac Services The principle drivers that should determine the optimal arrangements for the provision of congenital cardiac services, including  paediatric and adult cardiac surgery, for the population of Northern Ireland is how best those services can be configured to ensure the safest possible care that is of the highest quality possible in order to optimise outcomes and experience for patients and carers. Of necessity, this requires consideration of all requisite supporting services and arrangements to ensure access across the continuum of care. Such a configuration should support safe, high quality service provision on an on-going basis i.e. ensure sustainability as far as can be determined. In addressing this issue, consideration to the changing profile of population need and the evolving nature specialist services is required.  

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Abstract Reputation, influenced by ratings from past clients, is crucial for providers competing for custom. For new providers with less track record, a few negative ratings can harm their chances of growing. In the JASPR project, we aim to look at how to ensure automated reputation assessments are justified and informative. Even an honest balanced review of a service provision may still be an unreliable predictor of future performance if the circumstances differ. For example, a service may have previously relied on different sub-providers to now, or been affected by season-specific weather events. A common way to ameliorate the ratings that may not reflect future performance is by weighting by recency. We argue that better results are obtained by querying provenance records on how services are provided for the circumstances of provision, to determine the significance of past interactions. Informed by case studies in global logistics, taxi hire, and courtesy car leasing, we are going on to explore the generation of explanations for reputation assessments, which can be valuable both for clients and for providers wishing to improve their match to the market, and applying machine learning to predict aspects of service provision which may influence decisions on the appropriateness of a provider. In this talk, I will give an overview of the research conducted and planned on JASPR. Speaker Biography Dr Simon Miles Simon Miles is a Reader in Computer Science at King's College London, UK, and head of the Agents and Intelligent Systems group. He conducts research in the areas of normative systems, data provenance, and medical informatics at King's, and has published widely and manages a number of research projects in these areas. He was previously a researcher at the University of Southampton after graduating from his PhD at Warwick. He has twice been an organising committee member for the Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems conference series, and was a member of the W3C working group which published standards on interoperable provenance data in 2013.