The rising tide of ocean diseases: Unsolved problems and research priorities

New studies have detected a rising number of reports of diseases in marine organisms such as corals, molluscs, turtles, mammals, and echinoderms over the past three decades. Despite the increasing disease load, microbiological, molecular, and theoretical tools for managing disease in the world's oceans are underdeveloped. Review of the new developments in the study of these diseases identifies five major unsolved problems and priorities for future research: (1) detecting origins and reservoirs for marine diseases and tracing the flow of some new pathogens from land to sea; (2) documenting the longevity and host range of infectious stages; (3) evaluating the effect of greater taxonomic diversity of marine relative to terrestrial hosts and pathogens; (4) pinpointing the facilitating role of anthropogenic agents as incubators and conveyors of marine pathogens; (5) adapting epidemiological models to analysis of marine disease.

Agency problems and capital expenditure announcements

This article examines the market valuation of announcements of new capital expenditure. Prior research suggests that the firm's growth opportunities and cash flow position condition the market response. This study jointly examines the role of growth and cash flow, and the interaction between them. Using a new data set of Australian firms that avoids problems associated with expectations models, the results are remarkably strong and support a positive association between growth opportunities and the market valuation, in addition to supporting the role of free cash flow. The findings have implications for the relationship between general investment information and stock prices.

Two envelope problems and the roles of ignorance

Four variations on Two Envelope Paradox are stated and compared. The variations are employed to provide a diagnosis and an explanation of what has gone awry in the paradoxical modeling of the decision problem that the paradox poses. The canonical formulation of the paradox underdescribes the ways in which one envelope can have twice the amount that is in the other. Some ways one envelope can have twice the amount that is in the other make it rational to prefer the envelope that was originally rejected. Some do not, and it is a mistake to treat them alike. The nature of the mistake is diagnosed by the different roles that rigid designators and definite descriptions play in unproblematic and in untoward formulations of decision tables that are employed in setting out the decision problem that gives rise to the paradox. The decision maker’s knowledge or ignorance of how one envelope came to have twice the amount that is in the other determines which of the different ways of modeling his decision problem is correct. Under this diagnosis, the paradoxical modeling of the Two Envelope problem is incoherent.

Jane Austen's lifelong health problems and final illness: New evidence points to a fatal Hodgkin's disease and excludes the widely accepted Addison's

Jane Austen is typically described as having excellent health until the age of 40 and the onset of a mysterious and fatal illness, initially identified by Sir Zachary Cope in 1964 as Addison's disease. Her biographers, deceived both by Cassandra Austen's destruction of letters containing medical detail, and the cheerful high spirits of the existing letters, have seriously underestimated the extent to which illness affected Austen's life. A medical history reveals that she was particularly susceptible to infection, and suffered unusually severe infective illnesses, as well as a chronic conjunctivitis that impeded her ability to write. There is evidence that Austen was already suffering from an immune deficiency and fatal lymphoma in January 1813, when her second and most popular novel, Pride and Prejudice, was published. Four more novels would follow, written or revised in the shadow of her increasing illness and debility. Whilst it is impossible now to conclusively establish the cause of her death, the existing medical evidence tends to exclude Addison's disease, and suggests there is a high possibility that Jane Austen's fatal illness was Hodgkin's disease, a form of lymphoma.

Multi-valued control problems and mixture density network

We have proposed a novel robust inversion-based neurocontroller that searches for the optimal control law by sampling from the estimated Gaussian distribution of the inverse plant model. However, for problems involving the prediction of continuous variables, a Gaussian model approximation provides only a very limited description of the properties of the inverse model. This is usually the case for problems in which the mapping to be learned is multi-valued or involves hysteritic transfer characteristics. This often arises in the solution of inverse plant models. In order to obtain a complete description of the inverse model, a more general multicomponent distributions must be modeled. In this paper we test whether our proposed sampling approach can be used when considering an arbitrary conditional probability distributions. These arbitrary distributions will be modeled by a mixture density network. Importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The effectiveness of the importance sampling from an arbitrary conditional probability distribution will be demonstrated using a simple single input single output static nonlinear system with hysteretic characteristics in the inverse plant model.