919 resultados para Probability Pattern comparison Evaluation and interpretation


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Yersinia enterocolitica 4/O:3 is the most important human pathogenic bioserotype in Europe and the predominant pathogenic bioserotype in slaughter pigs. Although many studies on the virulence of Y. enterocolitica strains have showed a broad spectrum of detectable factors in pigs and humans, an analysis based on a strict comparative approach and serving to verify the virulence capability of porcine Y. enterocolitica as a source for human yersiniosis is lacking. Therefore, in the present study, strains of biotype (BT) 4 isolated from Swiss slaughter pig tonsils and feces and isolates from human clinical cases were compared in terms of their spectrum of virulence-associated genes (yadA, virF, ail, inv, rovA, ymoA, ystA, ystB and myfA). An analysis of the associated antimicrobial susceptibility pattern completed the characterization. All analyzed BT 4 strains showed a nearly similar pattern, comprising the known fundamental virulence-associated genes yadA, virF, ail, inv, rovA, ymoA, ystA and myfA. Only ystB was not detectable among all analyzed isolates. Importantly, neither the source of the isolates (porcine tonsils and feces, humans) nor the serotype (ST) had any influence on the gene pattern. From these findings, it can be concluded that the presence of the full complement of virulence genes necessary for human infection is common among porcine BT 4 strains. Swiss porcine BT 4 strains not only showed antimicrobial susceptibility to chloramphenicol, cefotaxime, ceftazidime, ciprofloxacin, colistin, florfenicol, gentamicin, kanamycin, nalidixic acid, sulfamethoxazole, streptomycin, tetracycline and trimethoprim but also showed 100% antibiotic resistance to ampicillin. The human BT 4 strains revealed comparable results. However, in addition to 100% antibiotic resistance to ampicillin, 2 strains were resistant to chloramphenicol and nalidixic acid. Additionally, 1 of these strains was resistant to sulfamethoxazole. The results demonstrated that Y. enterocolitica BT 4 isolates from porcine tonsils, as well as from feces, show the same virulence-associated gene pattern and antibiotic resistance properties as human isolates from clinical cases, consistent with the etiological role of porcine BT 4 in human yersiniosis. Thus, cross-contamination of carcasses and organs at slaughter with porcine Y. enterocolitica BT 4 strains, either from tonsils or feces, must be prevented to reduce human yersiniosis.

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Recent developments in federal policy have prompted the creation of state evaluation frameworks for principals and teachers that hold educators accountable for effective practices and student outcomes. These changes have created a demand for formative evaluation instruments that reflect current accountability pressures and can be used by schools to focus school improvement and leadership development efforts. The Comprehensive Assessment of Leadership for Learning (CALL) is a next generation, 360-degree on-line assessment and feedback system that reflect best practices in feedback design. Some unique characteristics of CALL include a focus on: leadership distributed throughout the school rather than as carried out by an individual leader; assessment of leadership tasks rather than perceptions of leadership practice; a focus on larger complex systems of middle and high school; and transparency of assessment design. This paper describes research contributing to the design and validation of the CALL survey instrument.

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Sediment deformation features in CRP-2/2A were described during normal logging procedures and from core-scan images. In this paper the origin of soft-sediment folding, contorted bedding, microfaulting, clastic dykes, shear zones and intraformational breccias is discussed. The features have a stratigraphic distribution related to major unconformities and sequence boundaries. Hypotheses for the origins of sediment deformation include hydrofracturing, subglacial shearing, slumping, and gas hydrate formation. Shear zones, microfaults, clastic dykes and contorted bedding within rapidly deposited sediments, suggest that slumping in an ice-distal environment occurred in the early Oligocene. A till wedge beneath a diamictite at 364 mbsf the mid-Oligocene section represents the oldest evidence of grounded ice in CRP-2/2A. Shear zones with a subglacial origin in the early late Oligocene and early Miocene sections of the core are evidence of further grounding events. The interpretation of sediment deformation in CRP-2/2A is compared to other Antarctic stratigraphic records and global eustatic change between the late Eocenel/early Oligocene and the middle Miocene.

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Since OSIRIS started acquiring high-resolution observations of the surface of the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, over one hundred meter-sized bright spots have been identified in numerous types of geomorphologic regions, but mostly located in areas receiving low insolation. The bright spots are either clustered, in debris fields close to decameter-high cliffs, or isolated without structural relation to the surrounding terrain. They can be up to ten times brighter than the average surface of the comet at visible wavelengths and display a significantly bluer spectrum. They do not exhibit significant changes over a period of a few weeks. All these observations are consistent with exposure of water ice at the surface of boulders produced by dislocation of the weakly consolidated layers that cover large areas of the nucleus. Laboratory experiments show that under simulated comet surface conditions, analog samples acquire a vertical stratification with an uppermost porous mantle of refractory dust overlaying a layer of hard ice formed by recondensation or sintering under the insulating dust mantle. The evolution of the visible spectrophotometric properties of samples during sublimation is consistent with the contrasts of brightness and color seen at the surface of the nucleus. Clustered bright spots are formed by the collapse of overhangs that is triggered by mass wasting of deeper layers. Isolated spots might be the result of the emission of boulders at low velocity that are redepositioned in other regions.

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Politicians, social scientists and general readers have noted in both Cuban and international academic forums and periodicals that the well-being enjoyed by the Cuban people in the 1980s has been seriously compromised since the economic crisis of the 1990s. Even for the most skeptical of observers it is clear that this worsening of conditions can be attributed not only to external factors, such as the breakup of the international socialist system, the tightening of the US blockade, and the worldwide economic crisis suffered by underdeveloped countries, but also to internal factors that have kept the country from taking full advantage of the human and material potential available on the island. Although Cuba is currently experiencing an economic recovery from the collapse in GDP in the mid 1990s following the collapse of its ties with the Socialist Bloc, it continues to maintain high import coefficients due to longstanding structural.

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Nondeterminism and partially instantiated data structures give logic programming expressive power beyond that of functional programming. However, functional programming often provides convenient syntactic features, such as having a designated implicit output argument, which allow function cali nesting and sometimes results in more compact code. Functional programming also sometimes allows a more direct encoding of lazy evaluation, with its ability to deal with infinite data structures. We present a syntactic functional extensión, used in the Ciao system, which can be implemented in ISO-standard Prolog systems and covers function application, predefined evaluable functors, functional definitions, quoting, and lazy evaluation. The extensión is also composable with higher-order features and can be combined with other extensions to ISO-Prolog such as constraints. We also highlight the features of the Ciao system which help implementation and present some data on the overhead of using lazy evaluation with respect to eager evaluation.

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Intermittency phenomenon is a continuous route from regular to chaotic behaviour. Intermittency is an occurrence of a signal that alternates chaotic bursts between quasi-regular periods called laminar phases, driven by the so called reinjection probability density function (RPD). In this paper is introduced a new technique to obtain the RPD for type-II and III intermittency. The new RPD is more general than the classical one and includes the classical RPD as a particular case. The probabilities of the laminar length, the average laminar lengths and the characteristic relations are determined with and without lower bound of the reinjection in agreement with numerical simulations. Finally, it is analyzed the noise effect in intermittency. A method to obtain the noisy RPD is developed extending the procedure used in the noiseless case. The analytical results show a good agreement with numerical simulations.

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This paper presents a new methodology to build parametric models to estimate global solar irradiation adjusted to specific on-site characteristics based on the evaluation of variable im- portance. Thus, those variables higly correlated to solar irradiation on a site are implemented in the model and therefore, different models might be proposed under different climates. This methodology is applied in a study case in La Rioja region (northern Spain). A new model is proposed and evaluated on stability and accuracy against a review of twenty-two already exist- ing parametric models based on temperatures and rainfall in seventeen meteorological stations in La Rioja. The methodology of model evaluation is based on bootstrapping, which leads to achieve a high level of confidence in model calibration and validation from short time series (in this case five years, from 2007 to 2011). The model proposed improves the estimates of the other twenty-two models with average mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.195 MJ/m2 day and average confidence interval width (95% C.I., n=100) of 0.261 MJ/m2 day. 41.65% of the daily residuals in the case of SIAR and 20.12% in that of SOS Rioja fall within the uncertainty tolerance of the pyranometers of the two networks (10% and 5%, respectively). Relative differences between measured and estimated irradiation on an annual cumulative basis are below 4.82%. Thus, the proposed model might be useful to estimate annual sums of global solar irradiation, reaching insignificant differences between measurements from pyranometers.

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Contact Spatially Resolved Spectroscopy (SRS) measurements by means of a fiber-optics probe were employed for nondestructive assessment and monitoring of Braeburn apples during shelflife storage. SRS measurements and estimation of optical properties were calibrated and validated by means of liquid optical phantoms with known optical properties and a metamodeling method. The acquired optical properties (absorption and reduced scattering coefficients) for the apples during shelf-life storage were found to provide useful information for nondestructive evaluation of apple quality attributes (firmness and SSC) and for monitoring the changes in their microstructure and chemical composition. On-line SRS measurement was achieved by mounting the SRS probe over a conveyor system

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Reducing the gap between water-limited potential yield and actual yield in oil palm production systems through intensification is seen as an important option for sustainably increasing palm oil production. Simulation models can play an important role in quantifying water-limited potential yield, and therefore the scope for intensification, but no oil palm model exists that is both simple enough and at the same time incorporates sufficient plant physiological knowledge to be generally applicable across sites with different growing conditions. The objectives of this study therefore were to develop a model (PALMSIM) that simulates, on a monthly time step, the potential growth of oil palm as determined by solar radiation and to evaluate model performance against measured oil palm yields under optimal water and nutrient management for a range of sites across Indonesia and Malaysia. The maximum observed yield in the field matches the corresponding simulated yield for dry bunch weight with a RMSE of 1.7 Mg ha?1 year?1 against an observed yield of 18.8 Mg ha?1. Sensitivity analysis showed that PALMSIM is robust: simulated changes in yield caused by modifying the parameters by 10% are comparable to other tree crop model evaluations. While we acknowledge that, depending on the soils and climatic environment, yields may be often water limited, we suggest a relatively simple physiological approach to simulate potential yield, which can be usefully applied to high rainfall environments and is considered as a first step in developing an oil palm model that also simulates water-limited potential yield. To illustrate the application possibil- ities of the model, PALMSIM was used to create a potential yield map for Indonesia and Malaysia by sim- ulating the growth and yield at a resolution of 0.1?. This map of potential yield is considered as a first step towards a decision support tool that can identify potentially productive, but at the moment degraded sites in Indonesia and Malaysia. ?

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Society is frequently exposed to and threatened by dangerous phenomena in many parts of the world. Different types of such phenomena require specific actions for proper risk management, from the stages of hazard identification to those of mitigation (including monitoring and early-warning) and/or reduction. The understanding of both predisposing factors and triggering mechanisms of a given danger and the prediction of its evolution from the source to the overall affected zone are relevant issues that must be addressed to properly evaluate a given hazard.