Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.

Traitement de la dépression résistante par l'association citalopram-lithium. Méthodologie d'une étude multicentrique en double aveugle et résultats préliminaires [Treatment of resistant depression with the citalopram-lithium combination. Methodology of a double-blind multicenter study and preliminary results].

Citalopram, a new bicyclic antidepressant, is the most selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor. In a number of double-blind controlled studies, citalopram was compared to placebo and to known tricyclic antidepressants. These studies have shown their efficacy and good safety. The inefficacy of a psychotropic treatment in at least 20% of depressives has led a number of authors to propose original drug combinations and associations, like antidepressant/lithium (Li), antidepressant/sleep deprivation (agrypnia), antidepressant/ECT, or antidepressant/LT3. The aim of this investigation is to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and safety of a combined citalopram/lithium treatment in therapy-resistant patients, taking account of serotonergic functions, as tested by the fenfluramine/prolactin test, and of drug pharmacokinetics and pharmacogenetics of metabolism. DESIGN OF THE STUDY: A washout period of 3 days before initiating the treatment is included. After an open treatment phase of 28 days (D) with citalopram (20 mg D1-D3; 40 mg D4-D14; 40 or 60 mg D15-D28; concomitant medication allowed: chloral, chlorazepate), the nonresponding patients [less than 50% improvement in the total score on the 21 item-Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS)] are selected and treated with or without Li (randomized in double-blind conditions: citalopram/Li or citalopram/placebo) during the treatment (D29-D35). Thereafter, all patients included in the double-blind phase subsequently receive an open treatment with citalopram/Li for 7 days (D36-D42). The hypothesis of a relationship between serotoninergic functions in patients using the fenfluramine/prolactin test (D1) and the clinical response to citalopram (and Li) is assessed. Moreover, it is evaluated whether the pharmacogenetic status of the patients, as determined by the mephenytoin/dextromethorphan test (D0-D28), is related to the metabolism of fenfluramine and citalopram, and also to the clinical response. CLINICAL ASSESSMENT: Patients with a diagnosis of major depressive disorders according to DSM III are submitted to a clinical assessment of D1, D7, D14, D28, D35, D42: HDRS, CGI (clinical global impression), VAS (visual analog scales for self-rating of depression), HDRS (Hamilton depression rating scale, 21 items), UKU (side effects scale), and to clinical laboratory examens, as well as ECG, control of weight, pulse, blood pressure at D1, D28, D35. Fenfluramine/prolactin test: A butterfly needle is inserted in a forearm vein at 7 h 45 and is kept patent with liquemine. Samples for plasma prolactin, and d- and l-fenfluramine determinations are drawn at 8 h 15 (base line). Patients are given 60 mg fenfluramine (as a racemate) at 8 h 30. Kinetic points are determined at 9 h 30, 10 h 30, 11 h 30, 12 h 30, 13 h 30. Plasma levels of d- and l-fenfluramine are determined by gas chromatography and prolactin by IRNA. Mephenytoin/dextromethorphan test: Patients empty their bladders before the test; they are then given 25 mg dextropethorphan and 100 mg mephenytoin (as a racemate) at 8 h 00. They collect all urines during the following 8 hours. The metabolic ratio is determined by gas chromatography (metabolic ratio dextromethorphan/dextrorphan greater than 0.3 = PM (poor metabolizer); mephenytoin/4-OH-mephenytoin greater than 5.6, or mephenytoin S/R greater than 0.8 = PM). Citalopram plasma levels: Plasma levels of citalopram, desmethylcitalopram and didesmethylcitalopram are determined by gas chromatography--mass spectrometry. RESULTS OF THE PILOT STUDY. The investigation has been preceded by a pilot study including 14 patients, using the abovementioned protocol, except that all nonresponders were medicated with citalopram/Li on D28 to D42. The mean total score (n = 14) on the 21 item Hamilton scale was significantly reduced after the treatment, ie from 26.93 +/- 5.80 on D1 to 8.57 +/- 6.90 on D35 (p less than 0.001). A similar patCitalopram, a new bicyclic antidepressant, is the most selective serotonin reu

Comprehensive Statewide Transportation Model: Multimodal Investment Analysis Methodology Phase II, CTRE Project 02-126, 2001

The purposes of this report (Phase II of the project) are to specify in mathematical form the individual modules of the conceptual model developed in Phase I, to identify and evaluate sources of data for the model set, and to develop the transport networks necessary to support the models.

Multimodal Investment Analysis Methodology, Phase One: The Conceptual Model, 1998

The purpose of this project is to develop an investment analysis model that integrates the capabilities of four types of analysis for use in evaluating interurban transportation system improvements. The project will also explore the use of new data warehousing and mining techniques to design the types of databases required for supporting such a comprehensive transportation model. The project consists of four phases. The first phase, which is documented in this report, involves development of the conceptual foundation for the model. Prior research is reviewed in Chapter 1, which is composed of three major sections providing demand modeling background information for passenger transportation, transportation of freight (manufactured products and supplies), and transportation of natural resources and agricultural commodities. Material from the literature on geographic information systems makes up Chapter 2. Database models for the national and regional economies and for the transportation and logistics network are conceptualized in Chapter 3. Demand forecasting of transportation service requirements is introduced in Chapter 4, with separate sections for passenger transportation, freight transportation, and transportation of natural resources and commodities. Characteristics and capacities of the different modes, modal choices, and route assignments are discussed in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 concludes with a general discussion of the economic impacts and feedback of multimodal transportation activities and facilities.

A Petri Nets-based Scheduling Methodology forMultipurpose Batch Plants.

This article presents an optimization methodology of batch production processes assembled by shared resources which rely on a mapping of state-events into time-events allowing in this way the straightforward use of a well consolidated scheduling policies developed for manufacturing systems. A technique to generate the timed Petri net representation from a continuous dynamic representation (Differential-Algebraic Equations systems (DAEs)) of the production system is presented together with the main characteristics of a Petri nets-based tool implemented for optimization purposes. This paper describes also how the implemented tool generates the coverability tree and how it can be pruned by a general purpose heuristic. An example of a distillation process with two shared batch resources is used to illustrate the optimization methodology proposed.

Probabilistic algorithms for blind adaptive multiuser detection

In this paper, two probabilistic adaptive algorithmsfor jointly detecting active users in a DS-CDMA system arereported. The first one, which is based on the theory of hiddenMarkov models (HMM’s) and the Baum–Wech (BW) algorithm,is proposed within the CDMA scenario and compared withthe second one, which is a previously developed Viterbi-basedalgorithm. Both techniques are completely blind in the sense thatno knowledge of the signatures, channel state information, ortraining sequences is required for any user. Once convergencehas been achieved, an estimate of the signature of each userconvolved with its physical channel response (CR) and estimateddata sequences are provided. This CR estimate can be used toswitch to any decision-directed (DD) adaptation scheme. Performanceof the algorithms is verified via simulations as well as onexperimental data obtained in an underwater acoustics (UWA)environment. In both cases, performance is found to be highlysatisfactory, showing the near–far resistance of the analyzed algorithms.

Description of a robotics-oriented relational positioning methodology

This paper presents a relational positioning methodology for flexibly and intuitively specifying offline programmed robot tasks, as well as for assisting the execution of teleoperated tasks demanding precise movements.In relational positioning, the movements of an object can be restricted totally or partially by specifying its allowed positions in terms of a set of geometric constraints. These allowed positions are found by means of a 3D sequential geometric constraint solver called PMF – Positioning Mobile with respect to Fixed. PMF exploits the fact that in a set of geometric constraints, the rotational component can often be separated from the translational one and solved independently.

The PsyCoLaus study: methodology and characteristics of the sample of a population-based survey on psychiatric disorders and their association with genetic and cardiovascular risk factors.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The Psychiatric arm of the population-based CoLaus study (PsyCoLaus) is designed to: 1) establish the prevalence of threshold and subthreshold psychiatric syndromes in the 35 to 66 year-old population of the city of Lausanne (Switzerland); 2) test the validity of postulated definitions for subthreshold mood and anxiety syndromes; 3) determine the associations between psychiatric disorders, personality traits and cardiovascular diseases (CVD), 4) identify genetic variants that can modify the risk for psychiatric disorders and determine whether genetic risk factors are shared between psychiatric disorders and CVD. This paper presents the method as well as somatic and sociodemographic characteristics of the sample. METHODS: All 35 to 66 year-old persons previously selected for the population-based CoLaus survey on risk factors for CVD were asked to participate in a substudy assessing psychiatric conditions. This investigation included the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies to elicit diagnostic criteria for threshold disorders according to DSM-IV and algorithmically defined subthreshold syndromes. Complementary information was gathered on potential risk and protective factors for psychiatric disorders, migraine and on the morbidity of first-degree family members, whereas the collection of DNA and plasma samples was part of the original somatic study (CoLaus). RESULTS: A total of 3,691 individuals completed the psychiatric evaluation (67% participation). The gender distribution of the sample did not differ significantly from that of the general population in the same age range. Although the youngest 5-year band of the cohort was underrepresented and the oldest 5-year band overrepresented, participants of PsyCoLaus and individuals who refused to participate revealed comparable scores on the General Health Questionnaire, a self-rating instrument completed at the somatic exam. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations resulting from the relatively low participation in the context of a comprehensive and time-consuming investigation, the PsyCoLaus study should significantly contribute to the current understanding of psychiatric disorders and comorbid somatic conditions by: 1) establishing the clinical relevance of specific psychiatric syndromes below the DSM-IV threshold; 2) determining comorbidity between risk factors for CVD and psychiatric disorders; 3) assessing genetic variants associated with common psychiatric disorders and 4) identifying DNA markers shared between CVD and psychiatric disorders.

A methodology to estimate the potential to move inpatient to one day surgery.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of surgery performed as a day case varies greatly between countries. Low rates suggest a large growth potential in many countries. Measuring the potential development of one day surgery should be grounded on a comprehensive list of eligible procedures, based on a priori criteria, independent of local practices. We propose an algorithmic method, using only routinely available hospital data to identify surgical hospitalizations that could have been performed as one day treatment. METHODS: Moving inpatient surgery to one day surgery was considered feasible if at least one surgical intervention was eligible for one day surgery and if none of the following criteria were present: intervention or affection requiring an inpatient stay, patient transferred or died, and length of stay greater than four days. The eligibility of a procedure to be treated as a day case was mainly established on three a priori criteria: surgical access (endoscopic or not), the invasiveness of the procedure and the size of the operated organ. Few overrides of these criteria occurred when procedures were associated with risk of immediate complications, slow physiological recovery or pain treatment requiring hospital infrastructure. The algorithm was applied to a random sample of one million inpatient US stays and more than 600 thousand Swiss inpatient stays, in the year 2002. RESULTS: The validity of our method was demonstrated by the few discrepancies between the a priori criteria based list of eligible procedures, and a state list used for reimbursement purposes, the low proportion of hospitalizations eligible for one day care found in the US sample (4.9 versus 19.4% in the Swiss sample), and the distribution of the elective procedures found eligible in Swiss hospitals, well supported by the literature. There were large variations of the proportion of candidates for one day surgery among elective surgical hospitalizations between Swiss hospitals (3 to 45.3%). CONCLUSION: The proposed approach allows the monitoring of the proportion of inpatient stay candidates for one day surgery. It could be used for infrastructure planning, resources negotiation and the surveillance of appropriate resource utilization.

Design and methodology of the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS): a comprehensive prospective nationwide long-term follow-up cohort.

In Switzerland, organ procurement is well organized at the national-level but transplant outcomes have not been systematically monitored so far. Therefore, a novel project, the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study (STCS), was established. The STCS is a prospective multicentre study, designed as a dynamic cohort, which enrolls all solid organ recipients at the national level. The features of the STCS are a flexible patient-case system that allows capturing all transplant scenarios and collection of patient-specific and allograft-specific data. Beyond comprehensive clinical data, specific focus is directed at psychosocial and behavioral factors, infectious disease development, and bio-banking. Between May 2008 and end of 2011, the six Swiss transplant centers recruited 1,677 patients involving 1,721 transplantations, and a total of 1,800 organs implanted in 15 different transplantation scenarios. 10 % of all patients underwent re-transplantation and 3% had a second transplantation, either in the past or during follow-up. 34% of all kidney allografts originated from living donation. Until the end of 2011 we observed 4,385 infection episodes in our patient population. The STCS showed operative capabilities to collect high-quality data and to adequately reflect the complexity of the post-transplantation process. The STCS represents a promising novel project for comparative effectiveness research in transplantation medicine.

Cryo-electron microscopy of vitreous sections of native biological cells and tissues : methodology and applications

Résumé L'eau est souvent considérée comme une substance ordinaire puisque elle est très commune dans la nature. En fait elle est la plus remarquable de toutes les substances. Sans l'eau la vie sur la terre n'existerait pas. L'eau représente le composant majeur de la cellule vivante, formant typiquement 70 à 95% de la masse cellulaire et elle fournit un environnement à d'innombrables organismes puisque elle couvre 75% de la surface de terre. L'eau est une molécule simple faite de deux atomes d'hydrogène et un atome d'oxygène. Sa petite taille semble en contradiction avec la subtilité de ses propriétés physiques et chimiques. Parmi celles-là, le fait que, au point triple, l'eau liquide est plus dense que la glace est particulièrement remarquable. Malgré son importance particulière dans les sciences de la vie, l'eau est systématiquement éliminée des spécimens biologiques examinés par la microscopie électronique. La raison en est que le haut vide du microscope électronique exige que le spécimen biologique soit solide. Pendant 50 ans la science de la microscopie électronique a adressé ce problème résultant en ce moment en des nombreuses techniques de préparation dont l'usage est courrant. Typiquement ces techniques consistent à fixer l'échantillon (chimiquement ou par congélation), remplacer son contenu d'eau par un plastique doux qui est transformé à un bloc rigide par polymérisation. Le bloc du spécimen est coupé en sections minces (d’environ 50 nm) avec un ultramicrotome à température ambiante. En général, ces techniques introduisent plusieurs artefacts, principalement dû à l'enlèvement d'eau. Afin d'éviter ces artefacts, le spécimen peut être congelé, coupé et observé à basse température. Cependant, l'eau liquide cristallise lors de la congélation, résultant en une importante détérioration. Idéalement, l'eau liquide est solidifiée dans un état vitreux. La vitrification consiste à refroidir l'eau si rapidement que les cristaux de glace n'ont pas de temps de se former. Une percée a eu lieu quand la vitrification d'eau pure a été découverte expérimentalement. Cette découverte a ouvert la voie à la cryo-microscopie des suspensions biologiques en film mince vitrifié. Nous avons travaillé pour étendre la technique aux spécimens épais. Pour ce faire les échantillons biologiques doivent être vitrifiés, cryo-coupées en sections vitreuse et observées dans une cryo-microscope électronique. Cette technique, appelée la cryo- microscopie électronique des sections vitrifiées (CEMOVIS), est maintenant considérée comme étant la meilleure façon de conserver l'ultrastructure de tissus et cellules biologiques dans un état très proche de l'état natif. Récemment, cette technique est devenue une méthode pratique fournissant des résultats excellents. Elle a cependant, des limitations importantes, la plus importante d'entre elles est certainement dû aux artefacts de la coupe. Ces artefacts sont la conséquence de la nature du matériel vitreux et le fait que les sections vitreuses ne peuvent pas flotter sur un liquide comme c'est le cas pour les sections en plastique coupées à température ambiante. Le but de ce travail a été d'améliorer notre compréhension du processus de la coupe et des artefacts de la coupe. Nous avons ainsi trouvé des conditions optimales pour minimiser ou empêcher ces artefacts. Un modèle amélioré du processus de coupe et une redéfinitions des artefacts de coupe sont proposés. Les résultats obtenus sous ces conditions sont présentés et comparés aux résultats obtenus avec les méthodes conventionnelles. Abstract Water is often considered to be an ordinary substance since it is transparent, odourless, tasteless and it is very common in nature. As a matter of fact it can be argued that it is the most remarkable of all substances. Without water life on Earth would not exist. Water is the major component of cells, typically forming 70 to 95% of cellular mass and it provides an environment for innumerable organisms to live in, since it covers 75% of Earth surface. Water is a simple molecule made of two hydrogen atoms and one oxygen atom, H2O. The small size of the molecule stands in contrast with its unique physical and chemical properties. Among those the fact that, at the triple point, liquid water is denser than ice is especially remarkable. Despite its special importance in life science, water is systematically removed from biological specimens investigated by electron microscopy. This is because the high vacuum of the electron microscope requires that the biological specimen is observed in dry conditions. For 50 years the science of electron microscopy has addressed this problem resulting in numerous preparation techniques, presently in routine use. Typically these techniques consist in fixing the sample (chemically or by freezing), replacing its water by plastic which is transformed into rigid block by polymerisation. The block is then cut into thin sections (c. 50 nm) with an ultra-microtome at room temperature. Usually, these techniques introduce several artefacts, most of them due to water removal. In order to avoid these artefacts, the specimen can be frozen, cut and observed at low temperature. However, liquid water crystallizes into ice upon freezing, thus causing severe damage. Ideally, liquid water is solidified into a vitreous state. Vitrification consists in solidifying water so rapidly that ice crystals have no time to form. A breakthrough took place when vitrification of pure water was discovered. Since this discovery, the thin film vitrification method is used with success for the observation of biological suspensions of. small particles. Our work was to extend the method to bulk biological samples that have to be vitrified, cryosectioned into vitreous sections and observed in cryo-electron microscope. This technique is called cryo-electron microscopy of vitreous sections (CEMOVIS). It is now believed to be the best way to preserve the ultrastructure of biological tissues and cells very close to the native state for electron microscopic observation. Since recently, CEMOVIS has become a practical method achieving excellent results. It has, however, some sever limitations, the most important of them certainly being due to cutting artefacts. They are the consequence of the nature of vitreous material and the fact that vitreous sections cannot be floated on a liquid as is the case for plastic sections cut at room temperature. The aim of the present work has been to improve our understanding of the cutting process and of cutting artefacts, thus finding optimal conditions to minimise or prevent these artefacts. An improved model of the cutting process and redefinitions of cutting artefacts are proposed. Results obtained with CEMOVIS under these conditions are presented and compared with results obtained with conventional methods.

Coping with Technology: A Study on Economic Methodology and Strategic Management of Technology

There is a broad consensus among economists that technologicalchange has been a major contributor to the productivity growth and, hence, to the growth of the material welfare in western industrialized countries at least over the last century. Paradoxically, this issue has not been the focal point of theoretical economics. At the same time, we have witnessed the rise of the importance of technological issues at the strategic management level of business firms. Interestingly, the research has not accurately responded to this challenge either. The tension between the overwhelming empirical evidence of the importance of technology and its relative omission in the research offers a challenging target for a methodological endeavor. This study deals with the question of how different theories cope with technology and explain technological change. The focusis at the firm level and the analysis concentrates on metatheoretical issues, except for the last two chapters, which examine the problems of strategic management of technology. Here the aim is to build a new evolutionary-based theoreticalframework to analyze innovation processes at the firm level. The study consistsof ten chapters. Chapter 1 poses the research problem and contrasts the two basic approaches, neoclassical and evolutionary, to be analyzed. Chapter 2 introduces the methodological framework which is based on the methodology of isolation. Methodological and ontoogical commitments of the rival approaches are revealed and basic questions concerning their ways of theorizing are elaborated. Chapters 3-6 deal with the so-called substantive isolative criteria. The aim is to examine how different approaches cope with such critical issues as inherent uncertainty and complexity of innovative activities (cognitive isolations, chapter 3), theboundedness of rationality of innovating agents (behavioral isolations, chapter4), the multidimensional nature of technology (chapter 5), and governance costsrelated to technology (chapter 6). Chapters 7 and 8 put all these things together and look at the explanatory structures used by the neoclassical and evolutionary approaches in the light of substantive isolations. The last two cpahters of the study utilize the methodological framework and tools to appraise different economics-based candidates in the context of strategic management of technology. The aim is to analyze how different approaches answer the fundamental question: How can firms gain competitive advantages through innovations and how can the rents appropriated from successful innovations be sustained? The last chapter introduces a new evolutionary-based technology management framework. Also the largely omitted issues of entrepreneurship are examined.