910 resultados para Probabilistic interpretation


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The foraminiferal-rich pelagic Bateig Limestone forms several varieties of the important building stones quarried at Bateig Hill in southeastern Spain. Three principal ichnofabrics (Bichordites, mottled-Palaeophycus and mottled-Ophiomorpha) are recognized, which are present in at least two (possibly up to four) repeated successions (cycles). Each succession begins with an erosional event. The Bichordites ichnofabric represents a new type of facies, formed as thin turbidity/grain flow, stratiform units derived from sediment slips off a fault into deep water. Each slipped unit became almost completely bioturbated by infaunal echinoids, colonizing by lateral migration. Because of the thinness of the units, successive colonizations tended to truncate the underlying burrows giving rise to a pseudo-stratification. As the Bichordites ichnofabric accumulated on the fault apron, thus reducing the effective height of the fault scarp, the substrate gradually came under the influence of currents traversing the shelf. This led to a change in hydraulic regime, and to the mottled-Palaeophycus and mottled-Ophiomorpha ichnofabrics in sediment deposited under bed load transport, and associated with laminar and cross-stratified beds and local muddy intervals. Reactivation of the fault triggered erosion and channeling and a return to grain flow sedimentation, and to the Bichordites ichnofabric of the succeeding cycle. The highest unit of the Bateig Limestone is formed entirely of cross-stratified calcarenites with occasional Ophiomorpha (Ophiomorpha-primary lamination ichnofabric) and is similar to many shallow marine facies but they still bear a significant content of pelagic foraminifera. The sedimentary setting bears resemblance with that described for the Pleistocene Monte Torre Paleostrait and the modem Strait of Messina (Italy), where the narrow morphology of the depositional area enhanced tidal currents and allowed for high-energy sandy deposition in relatively deep areas. More data on the Miocene paleogeography of the Bateig area should provide further testing for this hypothesis. The ichnofacies and stacking of the Bateig Limestone differ from the classic Seilacherian model in that they reflect changes in hydraulic process and are associated with faulting and subsidence and changes in sediment supply. Recognition of the unusual ichnofabrics and their relationships provides a clear indication of the overall dynamic setting. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper explores Dworkin's 'law as a chain novel' analogy and considers the recent work of Dworkin and MacCormick through close scrutiny of two recent judgments of Lord Hoffmann, in Barlow Clowes v Eurotrust International [2005] UKPC 37 and Barker v Corus [2006] UKHL 20. The aim is to examine Dworkin's theory in the context of recent English private law decisions and determine whether Lord Hoffmann's approach to interpretation is consistent with that of Dworkin (as his Lordship has contended in the past). It is argued that Lord Hoffmann's treatment of recent decisions on which he himself sat raises significant questions regarding fidelity, coherence and the institutional structure of the House of Lords.

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Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

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We frequently encounter conflicting emotion cues. This study examined how the neural response to emotional prosody differed in the presence of congruent and incongruent lexico-semantic cues. Two hypotheses were assessed: (i) decoding emotional prosody with conflicting lexico-semantic cues would activate brain regions associated with cognitive conflict (anterior cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) or (ii) the increased attentional load of incongruent cues would modulate the activity of regions that decode emotional prosody (right lateral temporal cortex). While the participants indicated the emotion conveyed by prosody, functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired on a 3T scanner using blood oxygenation level-dependent contrast. Using SPM5, the response to congruent cues was contrasted with that to emotional prosody alone, as was the response to incongruent lexico-semantic cues (for the 'cognitive conflict' hypothesis). The right lateral temporal lobe region of interest analyses examined modulation of activity in this brain region between these two contrasts (for the 'prosody cortex' hypothesis). Dorsolateral prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortex activity was not observed, and neither was attentional modulation of activity in right lateral temporal cortex activity. However, decoding emotional prosody with incongruent lexico-semantic cues was strongly associated with left inferior frontal gyrus activity. This specialist form of conflict is therefore not processed by the brain using the same neural resources as non-affective cognitive conflict and neither can it be handled by associated sensory cortex alone. The recruitment of inferior frontal cortex may indicate increased semantic processing demands but other contributory functions of this region should be explored.