An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Sludge population optimisation: a new dimension for the control of biological wastewater treatment systems

The activated sludge comprises a complex microbiological community. The structure (what types of microorganisms are present) and function (what can the organisms do and at what rates) of this community are determined by external physico -chemical features and by the influent to the sewage treatment plant. The external features we can manipulate but rarely the influent. Conventional control and operational strategies optimise activated sludge processes more as a chemical system than as a biological one. While optimising the process in a short time period, these strategies may deteriorate the long-term performance of the process due to their potentially adverse impact on the microbial properties. Through briefly reviewing the evidence available in the literature that plant design and operation affect both the structure and function of the microbial community in activated sludge, we propose to add sludge population optimisation as a new dimension to the control of biological wastewater treatment systems. We stress that optimising the microbial community structure and property should be an explicit aim for the design and operation of a treatment plant. The major limitations to sludge population optimisation revolve around inadequate microbiological data, specifically community structure, function and kinetic data. However, molecular microbiological methods that strive to provide that data are being developed rapidly. The combination of these methods with the conventional approaches for kinetic study is briefly discussed. The most pressing research questions pertaining to sludge population optimisation are outlined. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Path integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This note presents a method of evaluating the distribution of a path integral for Markov chains on a countable state space.

A real-time PCR assay for the detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by LightCycler

The detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is now recognized as a sensitive and specific method of diagnosing infection by the organism. In this Study 152 urine specimens were examined for N. gonorrhoeae by a real-time PCR method using the LightCycler platform and results were compared to an in-house PCR assay using an ELISA-based detection method. N. gonorrhoeae DNA was detected in 29 (19%) specimens by LightCycler PCR (LC-PCR) and in 31 (20%) specimens by the in house PCR method. The LightCycler assay proved to be specific and 94% sensitive when compared to the in house PCR method. These features combined with the rapid turn-around time for results makes the LC-PCR particularly suitable for the detection of N. gonorrhoeae in a routine clinical laboratory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Monitoring hotel performance

There is a pressing need to address productivity analysis in the hospitality industry if hotels are to exist as sustainable business entities in rapidly maturing markets. Unfortunately, productivity ratios commonly used by managers are narrowly defined. This study illustrates data envelopment analysis of cross-sectional data that benchmark hotels on observed best performances. Data envelopment analysis enables management to integrate unlike multiple inputs and outputs to make simultaneous comparisons. Findings from the cross-sectional data suggest that some of the hotels have the potential to reduce number of beds and number of part-time staff while increasing revenue.

Reasoning about real-time repetitions: terminating and nonterminating

It is common for a real-time system to contain a nonterminating process monitoring an input and controlling an output. Hence, a real-time program development method needs to support nonterminating repetitions. In this paper we develop a general proof rule for reasoning about possibly nonterminating repetitions. The rule makes use of a Floyd-Hoare-style loop invariant that is maintained by each iteration of the repetition, a Jones-style relation between the pre- and post-states on each iteration, and a deadline specifying an upper bound on the starting time of each iteration. The general rule is proved correct with respect to a predicative semantics. In the case of a terminating repetition the rule reduces to the standard rule extended to handle real time. Other special cases include repetitions whose bodies are guaranteed to terminate, nonterminating repetitions with the constant true as a guard, and repetitions whose termination is guaranteed by the inclusion of a fixed deadline. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Saving, productivity and national income: a discrete-time geometric framework

This paper proposes an alternative geometric framework for analysing the inter-relationship between domestic saving, productivity and income determination in discrete time. The framework provides a means of understanding how low saving economies like the United States sustained high growth rates in the 1990s whereas high saving Japan did not. It also illustrates how the causality between saving and economic activity runs both ways and that discrete changes in national output and income depend on both current and previous accumulation behaviour. The open economy analogue reveals how international capital movements can create external account imbalances that enhance income growth for both borrower and lender economies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Anticipation of a non-aversive reaction time task facilitates the blink startle reflex

The conditions under which blink startle facilitation can be found in anticipation of a reaction time task were investigated to resolve inconsistent findings across previous studies. Four groups of participants (n = 64) were presented with two visual stimuli, one predicting a reaction time task (S+) and the second presented alone (S-). Participants were asked to make a speeded response to the offset of the S+ (S1 paradigm) or were asked to respond to a tactile stimulus presented at the offset of the S+ (S1-S2 paradigm). Half of the participants in each paradigm condition received performance feedback. Overall, blink latency shortening and magnitude facilitation were larger during S+ than during S-. More detailed analyses, however, found these differences to be reliable only in the Feedback conditions. Ratings of S+ pleasantness did not change across the experiment. Electrodermal responses to S+ were larger than to S- in all groups with differential electrodermal responding emerging earlier in the S1 paradigm. Taken together, the data support the notion that startle facilitation can occur during non-aversive Pavlovian conditioning. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A formal model of real-time program compilation

Program compilation can be formally defined as a sequence of equivalence-preserving transformations, or refinements, from high-level language programs to assembler code, Recent models also incorporate timing properties, but the resulting formalisms are intimidatingly complex. Here we take advantage of a new, simple model of real-time refinement, based on predicate transformer semantics, to present a straightforward compilation formalism that incorporates real-time constraints. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Probing the time course of nonlinear discriminations during human electrodermal conditioning

Animal-based theories of Pavlovian conditioning propose that patterning discriminations are solved using unique cues or immediate configuring. Recent studies with humans, however, provided evidence that in positive and negative patterning two different rules are utilized. The present experiment was designed to provide further support for this proposal by tracking the time course of the allocation of cognitive resources. One group was trained in a positive patterning; schedule (A-, B-, AB+) and a second in a negative patterning schedule (A+, B+, AB-). Electrodermal responses and secondary task probe reaction time were measured. In negative patterning, reaction times were slower during reinforced stimuli than during non-reinforced stimuli at both probe positions while there were no differences in positive patterning. These results support the assumption that negative patterning is solved using a rule that is more complex and requires more resources than does the rule employed to solve positive patterning. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).