Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Comparative susceptibility of mosquito populations in North Queensland, Australia to oral infection with dengue virus

Dengue is the most prevalent arthropod-borne virus, with at least 40% of the world’s population at risk of infection each year. In Australia, dengue is not endemic, but viremic travelers trigger outbreaks involving hundreds of cases. We compared the susceptibility of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from two geographically isolated populations with two strains of dengue virus serotype 2. We found, interestingly, that mosquitoes from a city with no history of dengue were more susceptible to virus than mosquitoes from an outbreak-prone region, particularly with respect to one dengue strain. These findings suggest recent evolution of population-based differences in vector competence or different historical origins. Future genomic comparisons of these populations could reveal the genetic basis of vector competence and the relative role of selection and stochastic processes in shaping their differences. Lastly, we show the novel finding of a correlation between midgut dengue titer and titer in tissues colonized after dissemination.

Limited dengue virus replication in field-collected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia

Introduction Dengue is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in the world. The causative agent, dengue virus (DENV), is primarily transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a species that has proved difficult to control using conventional methods. The discovery that A. aegypti transinfected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia showed limited DENV replication led to trial field releases of these mosquitoes in Cairns, Australia as a biocontrol strategy for the virus. Methodology/Principal Findings Field collected wMel mosquitoes that were challenged with three DENV serotypes displayed limited rates of body infection, viral replication and dissemination to the head compared to uninfected controls. Rates of dengue infection, replication and dissemination in field wMel mosquitoes were similar to those observed in the original transinfected wMel line that had been maintained in the laboratory. We found that wMel was distributed in similar body tissues in field mosquitoes as in laboratory ones, but, at seven days following blood-feeding, wMel densities increased to a greater extent in field mosquitoes. Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that virus-blocking is likely to persist in Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes after their release and establishment in wild populations, suggesting that Wolbachia biocontrol may be a successful strategy for reducing dengue transmission in the field.

Epidemiological and molecular features of dengue virus type-1 in New Caledonia, South Pacific, 2001–2013

Background The epidemiology of dengue in the South Pacific has been characterized by transmission of a single dominant serotype for 3–5 years, with subsequent replacement by another serotype. From 2001 to 2008 only DENV-1 was reported in the Pacific. In 2008, DENV-4 emerged and quickly displaced DENV-1 in the Pacific, except in New Caledonia (NC) where DENV-1 and DENV-4 co-circulated in 2008–2009. During 2012–2013, another DENV-1 outbreak occurred in NC, the third DENV-1 outbreak in a decade. Given that dengue is a serotype-specific immunizing infection, the recurrent outbreaks of a single serotype within a 10-year period was unexpected. Findings This study aimed to inform this phenomenon by examining the phylogenetic characteristics of the DENV-1 viruses in NC and other Pacific islands between 2001 and 2013. As a result, we have demonstrated that NC experienced introductions of viruses from both the Pacific (genotype IV) and South-east Asia (genotype I). Moreover, whereas genotype IV and I were co-circulating at the beginning of 2012, we observed that from the second half of 2012, i.e. during the major DENV-1 outbreak, all analyzed viruses were genotype I suggesting that a genotype switch occurred. Conclusions Repeated outbreaks of the same dengue serotype, as observed in NC, is uncommon in the Pacific islands. Why the earlier DENV-1 outbreaks did not induce sufficient herd immunity is unclear, and likely multifactorial, but the robust vector control program may have played a role by limiting transmission and thus maintaining a large susceptible pool in the population. Keywords: Dengue; Phylogeny; Genotype; Epidemics; New Caledonia

Desafios Para A Implementação Do Processo De Projeto Colaborativo: Análise Do Fator Humano

The ineffectiveness of current design processes has been well studied and has resulted in widespread calls for the evolution and development of new management processes. Perhaps one problem is that with the advent of BIM we are moving from one stage to another without necessarily having resolved all the issues. CAD design technology, if well handled, could have significantly raised the level of quality and efficiency of current processes, but in practice this was not fully realized. Therefore, technology alone can´t solve all the problems and the advent of BIM could result in a similar bottleneck. For a precise definition of the problem to be solved we should start by understanding what are the main current bottlenecks that have yet to be overcome by either new technologies or management processes, and the impact of human behavior related issues despite the advent of new technologies. The fragmented and dispersed nature of the AEC sector and the huge number of small organizations that comprise it would probably be a major limiting factor. Several authors have addressed this issue and more recently IDDS has been defined as the highest level of achievement. However, what is written on IDDS shows an extremely ideal situation on a state to be achieved; it shows a holistic utopian proposition with the intent to create the research agenda to move towards that state. Key to IDDS is the framing of a new management model which should address the problems associated with key aspects: technology, processes, policies and people. One of the primary areas to be further studied is the process of collaborative work and understanding, together with the development of proposals to overcome the many cultural barriers that currently exist and impede the advance of new management methods. The purpose of this paper is to define and delimit problems to be solved so that it is possible to implement a new management model for a collaborative design process.

Epidemiological patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease which has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiological patterns of the RRV disease in Queensland, Australia between January 2001 and December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatial-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 people, with a male: female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland; and the south east areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on these high risk regions, particularly during the summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV.

Geographic co-distribution of influenza virus subtypes H7N9 and H5N1 in humans, China

Human infection with a novel low pathogenicity influenza A(H7N9) virus in eastern China has recently raised global public health concerns (1). The geographic sources of infection have yet to be fully clarified, and confirmed human cases from 1 province have not been linked to those from other provinces. While some studies have identified epidemiologic characteristics of subtype H7N9 cases and clinical differences between these cases and cases of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1), another avian influenza affecting parts of China (2–4), the spatial epidemiology of human infection with influenza subtypes H7N9 and H5N1 in China has yet to be elucidated. To test the hypothesis of co-distribution of high-risk clusters of both types of infection, we used all available data on human cases in mainland China and investigated the geospatial epidemiologic features...

Nucleic acid hybridizations as radioactive tool for rapid detection of banana bunchy top virus

Banana bunchy top disease (BBTD) caused by banana bunchy top virus (BBTV) was radioactively detected by nucleic acid hybridization techniques. Results showed that, 32P-labelled insert of pBT338 was hybridized with nucleic acid extracts from BBTV-infected plants from Egypt and Australia but not with those from CMV-infected plants from Egypt. Results revealed that BBTV was greatly detected in midrib, roots, meristem, corm, leaves and pseudostem respectively. BBTV was also detected in symptomless young plants prepared from diseased plant materials grown under tissue culture conditions but was not present in those performed from healthy plant materials. The sensitivity of dot blot and Southern blot hybridizations for the detection of BBTV was also performed for the detection of BBTV.

Three-dimensional analysis of budding sites and released virus suggests a revised model for HIV-1 morphogenesis

Current models of HIV-1 morphogenesis hold that newly synthesized viral Gag polyproteins traffic to and assemble at the cell membrane into spherical protein shells. The resulting late-budding structure is thought to be released by the cellular ESCRT machinery severing the membrane tether connecting it to the producer cell. Using electron tomography and scanning transmission electron microscopy, we find that virions have a morphology and composition distinct from late-budding sites. Gag is arranged as a continuous but incomplete sphere in the released virion. In contrast, late-budding sites lacking functional ESCRT exhibited a nearly closed Gag sphere. The results lead us to propose that budding is initiated by Gag assembly, but is completed in an ESCRT-dependent manner before the Gag sphere is complete. This suggests that ESCRT functions early in HIV-1 release-akin to its role in vesicle formation-and is not restricted to severing the thin membrane tether.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.

Medical and nursing students perceived knowledge, attitudes, and practices concerning human immunodeficiency virus

Objective. To assess medical and nursing students’ knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Fiji. Methods. A cross-sectional study of 275 medical and 252 nursing students that participated in a questionnaire survey on HIV KAP. Data was analysed according to their gender, program of study, and academic year. Results. The mean HIV knowledge (HK) and attitude scores were 16.0 and 41.3, respectively. Mean HK score was significantly higher in males compared to females. Significant positive correlations were found between HK and academic year for medical () and nursing () students and between HK and attitude scores (). The majority of students indicated fear in contracting HIV through clinical practice and felt that health care workers have the right to know a patients HIV status for their own safety. The majority would wear gloves to touch a patient if suspected of HIV. Conclusions. The study found a high level of HIV knowledge and positive attitude towards HIV patients. However, respondents also displayed negative attitudes and unacceptable practices probably due to fear. Training institutions need to ensure that students gain accurate knowledge on HIV especially on transmission routes to allay the fear of caring for HIV-infected patients.

Ross River virus disease activity associated with naturally occurring non-tidal flood events in Australia : A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, resulting in considerable health and economic cost to communities. While naturally occurring non-tidal flood events may enhance mosquito abundance, little is known about the impact of such events on RRV transmission. This paper critically reviews the existing evidence for an association between naturally occurring non-tidal flood events and RRV transmission. A systematic literature search was conducted on RRV transmission related to flooding and inundation from rain and riverine overflow. Overall, the evidence to support a positive association between flooding and RRV outbreaks is largely circumstantial, with the literature mostly reporting only coincidental occurrence between the two. However, for the Murray River, river flow and height (surrogates of flooding) were positively and significantly associated with RRV transmission. The association between non-tidal flooding and RRV transmission has not been studied comprehensively. More frequent flood events arising from climate change may result in increased outbreaks of RRV disease. Understanding the link between flood events and RRV transmission is necessary if resources for mosquito spraying and public health warnings are to be utilized more effectively and efficiently.