When "hope springs eternal": The role of chance in risk taking

In most naturally occurring situations, success depends on both skill and chance. We contrastexperimental market entry decisions where payoffs depend on skill as opposed tocombinations of skill and chance. Our data show differential attitudes toward chance by thosewhose self-assessed skills are low and high. Making chance more important induces greateroptimism for the former who start taking more risk, while the latter maintain a belief that highlevels of skill are sufficient to overcome the vagaries of chance. Finally, although weobserved excess entry (i.e., too many participants entered markets), this could not beattributed to overconfidence.

The size and distribution of donations: Effects of numbers of potential recipients

Whereas much literature exists on choice overload, little is known about effects of numbers of alternatives in donation decisions. How do these affect both the size and distribution of donations? We hypothesize that donations are affected by the reputation of recipients and increase with their number, albeit at a decreasing rate. Allocations to recipients reflect different concepts of fairness equity and equality. Both may be employed but, since they differ in cognitive and emotional costs, numbers of recipients are important. Using a cognitive (emotional) argument, distributions become more uniform (skewed) as numbers increase. In a survey, respondents indicated how they would donate lottery winnings of 50 Euros. Results indicated that more was donated to NGO s that respondents knew better. Second, total donations increased with the number of recipients albeit at a decreasing rate. Third, distributions of donations became more skewed as numbers increased. We comment on theoretical and practical implications.

Insurance and safety after September 11, 2001: Coming to grips with the costs and threats of terrorism

This chapter, originally written as a consequence of the terrorist attacksof September 11, 2001, provides an elementary, everyday introduction tothe concepts of risk and insurance. Conceptually, risk has two dimensions:a potential loss, and the chance of that loss being realized. People can,however, transfer risk to insurance companies against the payment ofso-called premiums. In practice, however, one needs accurate assessmentsof both losses and probabilities to judge whether premiums are appropriate.For many risks, this poses little problem (e.g., life insurance); however,it is difficult to assess risks of many other kinds of events such as actsof terrorism. It is emphasized, that through evolution and learning, peopleare able to handle many of the common risks that they face in life. Butwhen people lack experience (e.g., new technologies, threats of terrorism),risk can only be assessed through imagination. Not surprisingly, insurancecompanies demand high prices when risks are poorly understood. In particular,the cost of insurance against possible acts of terrorism soared afterSeptember 11. How should people approach risk after the events of that day?Clearly, the world needs to protect itself from the acts of terrorists andother disturbed individuals. However, it is also important to address the root causes of such antisocial movements. It is, therefore, suggested thatprograms addressed at combatting ignorance, prejudice, and socialinequalities may be more effective premiums for reducing the risk ofterrosrtism than has been recognized to date.

Ignoring information in binary choice with continuous variables: When is less 'more'?

When can a single variable be more accurate in binary choice than multiple sources of information? We derive analytically the probability that a single variable (SV) will correctly predict one of two choices when both criterion and predictor are continuous variables. We further provide analogous derivations for multiple regression (MR) and equal weighting (EW) and specify the conditions under which the models differ in expected predictive ability. Key factors include variability in cue validities, intercorrelation between predictors, and the ratio of predictors to observations in MR. Theory and simulations are used to illustrate the differential effects of these factors. Results directly address why and when one-reason decision making can be more effective than analyses that use more information. We thus provide analytical backing to intriguing empirical results that, to date, have lacked theoretical justification. There are predictable conditions for which one should expect less to be more.

Activation of Transient Receptor Potential Canonical 3 (TRPC3)-mediated Ca2+ Entry by A1 Adenosine Receptor in Cardiomyocytes Disturbs Atrioventricular Conduction.

Although the activation of the A(1)-subtype of the adenosine receptors (A(1)AR) is arrhythmogenic in the developing heart, little is known about the underlying downstream mechanisms. The aim of this study was to determine to what extent the transient receptor potential canonical (TRPC) channel 3, functioning as receptor-operated channel (ROC), contributes to the A(1)AR-induced conduction disturbances. Using embryonic atrial and ventricular myocytes obtained from 4-day-old chick embryos, we found that the specific activation of A(1)AR by CCPA induced sarcolemmal Ca(2+) entry. However, A(1)AR stimulation did not induce Ca(2+) release from the sarcoplasmic reticulum. Specific blockade of TRPC3 activity by Pyr3, by a dominant negative of TRPC3 construct, or inhibition of phospholipase Cs and PKCs strongly inhibited the A(1)AR-enhanced Ca(2+) entry. Ca(2+) entry through TRPC3 was activated by the 1,2-diacylglycerol (DAG) analog OAG via PKC-independent and -dependent mechanisms in atrial and ventricular myocytes, respectively. In parallel, inhibition of the atypical PKCζ by myristoylated PKCζ pseudosubstrate inhibitor significantly decreased the A(1)AR-enhanced Ca(2+) entry in both types of myocytes. Additionally, electrocardiography showed that inhibition of TRPC3 channel suppressed transient A(1)AR-induced conduction disturbances in the embryonic heart. Our data showing that A(1)AR activation subtly mediates a proarrhythmic Ca(2+) entry through TRPC3-encoded ROC by stimulating the phospholipase C/DAG/PKC cascade provide evidence for a novel pathway whereby Ca(2+) entry and cardiac function are altered. Thus, the A(1)AR-TRPC3 axis may represent a potential therapeutic target.

Soft tissue sarcomas of the trunk wall (STS-TW): a study of 343 patients from the French Sarcoma Group (FSG) database.

BACKGROUND: Soft tissue sarcomas of the trunk wall (STS-TW) are usually studied together with soft tissue sarcomas of other locations. We report a study on STS-TW forming part of the French Sarcoma Group database. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred and forty-three adults were included. We carried out univariate and multivariate analysis for overall survival (OS), metastasis-free survival (MFS) and local recurrence-free survival (LRFS). RESULTS: Tumor locations were as follows: thoracic wall, 82.5%; abdominal wall, 12.3% and pelvic wall, 5.2%. Median tumor size was 6.0 cm. The most frequent tumor types were unclassified sarcoma (27.7%) and myogenic sarcoma (19.2%). A total of 44.6% of cases were grade 3. In all, 21.9% of patients had a previous medical history of radiotherapy (PHR). Median follow-up was 7.6 years. The 5-year OS, MFS and LRFS rates were 60.4%, 68.9% and 58.4%, respectively. Multivariate analysis retained PHR and grade for predicting LRFS and PHR, size and grade as prognostic factors of MFS. Factors influencing OS were age, size, PHR, depth, grade and surgical margins. The predictive factors of incomplete response were PHR, size and T3. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest similar classical prognostic factors as compared with sarcomas of other locations. However, a separate analysis of STS-TW revealed a significant poor prognosis subgroup of patients with PHR.

First and second branchial arch syndromes: multimodality approach.

First and second branchial arch syndromes (BAS) manifest as combined tissue deficiencies and hypoplasias of the face, external ear, middle ear and maxillary and mandibular arches. They represent the second most common craniofacial malformation after cleft lip and palate. Extended knowledge of the embryology and anatomy of each branchial arch derivative is mandatory for the diagnosis and grading of different BAS lesions and in the follow-up of postoperative patients. In recent years, many new complex surgical approaches and procedures have been designed by maxillofacial surgeons to treat extensive maxillary, mandibular and external and internal ear deformations. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the role of different imaging modalities (orthopantomogram (OPG), lateral and posteroanterior cephalometric radiographs, CT and MRI) in the diagnosis of a wide spectrum of first and second BAS, including hemifacial microsomia, mandibulofacial dysostosis, branchio-oto-renal syndrome, Pierre Robin sequence and Nager acrofacial dysostosis. Additionally, we aim to emphasize the importance of the systematic use of a multimodality imaging approach to facilitate the precise grading of these syndromes, as well as the preoperative planning of different reconstructive surgical procedures and their follow-up during treatment.

Differential expression and hypoxic regulation of adenosine receptors and TRPC channels in the developing heart.

Objectives: To characterize the modifications of gene expression of adenosine receptors (AR), TRPC channels, HIF-1α and iNOS during the early cardiogenesis in response to chronic hypoxia exposure. Methods: 4-day-old chick embryos were subjected in ovo to 6H, 12H and 24H of hypoxia (10% O2). The mRNA expression was quantified by RT-qPCR. Results: The targeted genes were found to be expressed at mRNA level with a differential expression pattern within the heart. Hypoxia has no significant effect on mRNA expression of ARs, TRPCs channels and iNOS within the heart. By contrast, HIF-1α mRNA expression shows a tendency to be down-regulated by hypoxia. Conclusion: These results suggest that an intrauterine oxygen lack does not significantly affect expression of genes involved in adenosine signaling and in calcium handling by store operated channels (TRPC).

Adult-type rhabdomyosarcoma: analysis of 57 cases with clinicopathologic description, identification of 3 morphologic patterns and prognosis.

Adult-type rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) has been classically defined as a pleomorphic sarcoma with desmin expression occurring in adult patients. To reevaluate this entity, we analyzed a series of 57 cases using immunohistochemistry for desmin, myogenin, alpha smooth muscle actin, h-caldesmon, pankeratin AE1/AE3, epithelial membrane antigen (EMA), S100 protein, CD34, MDM2, and CDK4. In this series, there were 36 men and 21 women aged from 22 to 87 years (median: 59). Tumors were mainly located in the lower limbs (27 cases), trunk wall (15 cases), and upper limbs (10 cases). Most tumors were deeply located (51/54) with a size from 1 to 30 cm (median: 8 cm). Cases were classified in 3 histologic categories: spindle cell RMS (25 cases), pleomorphic RMS (16 cases), and mixed type (16 cases). Forty-one tumors were grade 3 and 16 grade 2. Immunohistochemistry showed that every case was positive for desmin and myogenin. Alpha smooth muscle actin was positive in 21%, pankeratin AE1/AE3 in 20%, and CD34 in 13.2%. Treatment modalities and follow-up were available in 46 cases. Median follow-up was 60.9 months. Eight patients developed a local recurrence and 16 a distant metastasis with a 5-year overall survival rate of 52.6% and a 5-year metastasis-free survival of 62.9%. The only predictive factor for metastasis was histologic grade. In conclusion, adult-type RMS is a rare sarcoma occurring mainly in the extremities and trunk wall with 2 main histologic patterns, spindle cell, and pleomorphic patterns, which represent the end of the spectrum of a single entity.