A hierarchical system of learning automata that can learn die globally optimal path

Systems of learning automata have been studied by various researchers to evolve useful strategies for decision making under uncertainity. Considered in this paper are a class of hierarchical systems of learning automata where the system gets responses from its environment at each level of the hierarchy. A classification of such sequential learning tasks based on the complexity of the learning problem is presented. It is shown that none of the existing algorithms can perform in the most general type of hierarchical problem. An algorithm for learning the globally optimal path in this general setting is presented, and its convergence is established. This algorithm needs information transfer from the lower levels to the higher levels. Using the methodology of estimator algorithms, this model can be generalized to accommodate other kinds of hierarchical learning tasks.

A near Optimal Cane Rail Scheduler under Limited and Unlimited Capacity Constraints

Australia is the world’s third largest exporter of raw sugar after Brazil and Thailand, with around $2.0 billion in export earnings. Transport systems play a vital role in the raw sugar production process by transporting the sugarcane crop between farms and mills. In 2013, 87 per cent of sugarcane was transported to mills by cane railway. The total cost of sugarcane transport operations is very high. Over 35% of the total cost of sugarcane production in Australia is incurred in cane transport. A cane railway network mainly involves single track sections and multiple track sections used as passing loops or sidings. The cane railway system performs two main tasks: delivering empty bins from the mill to the sidings for filling by harvesters; and collecting the full bins of cane from the sidings and transporting them to the mill. A typical locomotive run involves an empty train (locomotive and empty bins) departing from the mill, traversing some track sections and delivering bins at specified sidings. The locomotive then, returns to the mill, traversing the same track sections in reverse order, collecting full bins along the way. In practice, a single track section can be occupied by only one train at a time, while more than one train can use a passing loop (parallel sections) at a time. The sugarcane transport system is a complex system that includes a large number of variables and elements. These elements work together to achieve the main system objectives of satisfying both mill and harvester requirements and improving the efficiency of the system in terms of low overall costs. These costs include delay, congestion, operating and maintenance costs. An effective cane rail scheduler will assist the traffic officers at the mill to keep a continuous supply of empty bins to harvesters and full bins to the mill with a minimum cost. This paper addresses the cane rail scheduling problem under rail siding capacity constraints where limited and unlimited siding capacities were investigated with different numbers of trains and different train speeds. The total operating time as a function of the number of trains, train shifts and a limited number of cane bins have been calculated for the different siding capacity constraints. A mathematical programming approach has been used to develop a new scheduler for the cane rail transport system under limited and unlimited constraints. The new scheduler aims to reduce the total costs associated with the cane rail transport system that are a function of the number of bins and total operating costs. The proposed metaheuristic techniques have been used to find near optimal solutions of the cane rail scheduling problem and provide different possible solutions to avoid being stuck in local optima. A numerical investigation and sensitivity analysis study is presented to demonstrate that high quality solutions for large scale cane rail scheduling problems are obtainable in a reasonable time. Keywords: Cane railway, mathematical programming, capacity, metaheuristics

Trapping to monitor tephritid movement: Results, best practice, and assessment of alternatives

Movement of tephritid flies underpins their survival, reproduction, and ability to establish in new areas and is thus of importance when designing effective management strategies. Much of the knowledge currently available on tephritid movement throughout landscapes comes from the use of direct or indirect methods that rely on the trapping of individuals. Here, we review published experimental designs and methods from mark-release-recapture (MRR) studies, as well as other methods, that have been used to estimate movement of the four major tephritid pest genera (Bactrocera, Ceratitis, Anastrepha, and Rhagoletis). In doing so, we aim to illustrate the theoretical and practical considerations needed to study tephritid movement. MRR studies make use of traps to directly estimate the distance that tephritid species can move within a generation and to evaluate the ecological and physiological factors that influence dispersal patterns. MRR studies, however, require careful planning to ensure that the results obtained are not biased by the methods employed, including marking methods, trap properties, trap spacing, and spatial extent of the trapping array. Despite these obstacles, MRR remains a powerful tool for determining tephritid movement, with data particularly required for understudied species that affect developing countries. To ensure that future MRR studies are successful, we suggest that site selection be carefully considered and sufficient resources be allocated to achieve optimal spacing and placement of traps in line with the stated aims of each study. An alternative to MRR is to make use of indirect methods for determining movement, or more correctly, gene flow, which have become widely available with the development of molecular tools. Key to these methods is the trapping and sequencing of a suitable number of individuals to represent the genetic diversity of the sampled population and investigate population structuring using nuclear genomic markers or non-recombinant mitochondrial DNA markers. Microsatellites are currently the preferred marker for detecting recent population displacement and provide genetic information that may be used in assignment tests for the direct determination of contemporary movement. Neither MRR nor molecular methods, however, are able to monitor fine-scale movements of individual flies. Recent developments in the miniaturization of electronics offer the tantalising possibility to track individual movements of insects using harmonic radar. Computer vision and radio frequency identification tags may also permit the tracking of fine-scale movements by tephritid flies by automated resampling, although these methods come with the same problems as traditional traps used in MRR studies. Although all methods described in this chapter have limitations, a better understanding of tephritid movement far outweighs the drawbacks of the individual methods because of the need for this information to manage tephritid populations.

Deriving optimal competition in infrastructure procurement

Typically only a limited number of consortiums are able to competitively bid for Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects. Consequently, this may lead to oligopoly pricing constraints and ineffective competition, thus engendering ex ante market failure. In addressing this issue, this paper aims to determine the optimal number of bidders required to ensure a healthy level of competition is available to procure major infrastructure projects. The theories of Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) paradigm; Game Theory and Auction Theory and Transaction Cost Economics are reviewed and discussed and used to produce an optimal level of competition for major infrastructure procurement, that prevents market failure ex ante (lack of competition) and market failure ex post (due to asymmetric lock-in).

Optimal management of agricultural systems

To remain competitive, many agricultural systems are now being run along business lines. Systems methodologies are being incorporated, and here evolutionary computation is a valuable tool for identifying more profitable or sustainable solutions. However, agricultural models typically pose some of the more challenging problems for optimisation. This chapter outlines these problems, and then presents a series of three case studies demonstrating how they can be overcome in practice. Firstly, increasingly complex models of Australian livestock enterprises show that evolutionary computation is the only viable optimisation method for these large and difficult problems. On-going research is taking a notably efficient and robust variant, differential evolution, out into real-world systems. Next, models of cropping systems in Australia demonstrate the challenge of dealing with competing objectives, namely maximising farm profit whilst minimising resource degradation. Pareto methods are used to illustrate this trade-off, and these results have proved to be most useful for farm managers in this industry. Finally, land-use planning in the Netherlands demonstrates the size and spatial complexity of real-world problems. Here, GIS-based optimisation techniques are integrated with Pareto methods, producing better solutions which were acceptable to the competing organizations. These three studies all show that evolutionary computation remains the only feasible method for the optimisation of large, complex agricultural problems. An extra benefit is that the resultant population of candidate solutions illustrates trade-offs, and this leads to more informed discussions and better education of the industry decision-makers.

Optimal Parameter Trajectory Estimation in Parameterized SDEs: An Algorithmic Procedure

We consider the problem of estimating the optimal parameter trajectory over a finite time interval in a parameterized stochastic differential equation (SDE), and propose a simulation-based algorithm for this purpose. Towards this end, we consider a discretization of the SDE over finite time instants and reformulate the problem as one of finding an optimal parameter at each of these instants. A stochastic approximation algorithm based on the smoothed functional technique is adapted to this setting for finding the optimal parameter trajectory. A proof of convergence of the algorithm is presented and results of numerical experiments over two different settings are shown. The algorithm is seen to exhibit good performance. We also present extensions of our framework to the case of finding optimal parameterized feedback policies for controlled SDE and present numerical results in this scenario as well.

Pitch discrimination in optimal and suboptimal acoustic environments: electroencephalographic, magnetoencephalographic, and behavioral evidence

Pitch discrimination is a fundamental property of the human auditory system. Our understanding of pitch-discrimination mechanisms is important from both theoretical and clinical perspectives. The discrimination of spectrally complex sounds is crucial in the processing of music and speech. Current methods of cognitive neuroscience can track the brain processes underlying sound processing either with precise temporal (EEG and MEG) or spatial resolution (PET and fMRI). A combination of different techniques is therefore required in contemporary auditory research. One of the problems in comparing the EEG/MEG and fMRI methods, however, is the fMRI acoustic noise. In the present thesis, EEG and MEG in combination with behavioral techniques were used, first, to define the ERP correlates of automatic pitch discrimination across a wide frequency range in adults and neonates and, second, they were used to determine the effect of recorded acoustic fMRI noise on those adult ERP and ERF correlates during passive and active pitch discrimination. Pure tones and complex 3-harmonic sounds served as stimuli in the oddball and matching-to-sample paradigms. The results suggest that pitch discrimination in adults, as reflected by MMN latency, is most accurate in the 1000-2000 Hz frequency range, and that pitch discrimination is facilitated further by adding harmonics to the fundamental frequency. Newborn infants are able to discriminate a 20% frequency change in the 250-4000 Hz frequency range, whereas the discrimination of a 5% frequency change was unconfirmed. Furthermore, the effect of the fMRI gradient noise on the automatic processing of pitch change was more prominent for tones with frequencies exceeding 500 Hz, overlapping with the spectral maximum of the noise. When the fundamental frequency of the tones was lower than the spectral maximum of the noise, fMRI noise had no effect on MMN and P3a, whereas the noise delayed and suppressed N1 and exogenous N2. Noise also suppressed the N1 amplitude in a matching-to-sample working memory task. However, the task-related difference observed in the N1 component, suggesting a functional dissociation between the processing of spatial and non-spatial auditory information, was partially preserved in the noise condition. Noise hampered feature coding mechanisms more than it hampered the mechanisms of change detection, involuntary attention, and the segregation of the spatial and non-spatial domains of working-memory. The data presented in the thesis can be used to develop clinical ERP-based frequency-discrimination protocols and combined EEG and fMRI experimental paradigms.

Availability of soil potassium and diagnostic soil tests

Thirty-seven surface (0-0.10 or 0-0.20 m) soils covering a wide range of soil types (16 Vertosols, 6 Ferrosols, 6 Dermosols, 4 Hydrosols, 2 Kandosols, 1 Sodosol, 1 Rudosol, and 1 Chromosol) were exhaustively cropped in 2 glasshouse experiments. The test species were Panicum maximum cv. Green Panic in Experiment A and Avena sativa cv. Barcoo in Experiment B. Successive forage harvests were taken until the plants could no longer grow in most soils because of severe potassium (K) deficiency. Soil samples were taken prior to cropping and after the final harvest in both experiments, and also after the initial harvest in Experiment B. Samples were analysed for solution K, exchangeable K (Exch K), tetraphenyl borate extractable K for extraction periods of 15 min (TBK15) and 60 min (TBK60), and boiling nitric acid extractable K (Nitric K). Inter-correlations between the initial levels of the various soil K parameters indicated that the following pools were in sequential equilibrium: solution K, Exch K, fast release fixed K [estimated as (TBK15-Exch K)], and slow release fixed K [estimated as (TBK60-TBK15)]. Structural K [estimated as (Nitric K-TBK60)] was not correlated with any of the other pools. However, following exhaustive drawdown of soil K by cropping, structural K became correlated with solution K, suggesting dissolution of K minerals when solution K was low. The change in the various K pools following cropping was correlated with K uptake at Harvest 1 ( Experiment B only) and cumulative K uptake ( both experiments). The change in Exch K for 30 soils was linearly related to cumulative K uptake (r = 0.98), although on average, K uptake was 35% higher than the change in Exch K. For the remaining 7 soils, K uptake considerably exceeded the change in Exch K. However, the changes in TBK15 and TBK60 were both highly linearly correlated with K uptake across all soils (r = 0.95 and 0.98, respectively). The slopes of the regression lines were not significantly different from unity, and the y-axis intercepts were very small. These results indicate that the plant is removing K from the TBK pool. Although the change in Exch K did not consistently equate with K uptake across all soils, initial Exch K was highly correlated with K uptake (r = 0.99) if one Vertosol was omitted. Exchangeable K is therefore a satisfactory diagnostic indicator of soil K status for the current crop. However, the change in Exch K following K uptake is soil-dependent, and many soils with large amounts of TBK relative to Exch K were able to buffer changes in Exch K. These soils tended to be Vertosols occurring on floodplains. In contrast, 5 soils (a Dermosol, a Rudosol, a Kandosol, and 2 Hydrosols) with large amounts of TBK did not buffer decreases in Exch K caused by K uptake, indicating that the TBK pool in these soils was unavailable to plants under the conditions of these experiments. It is likely that K fertiliser recommendations will need to take account of whether the soil has TBK reserves, and the availability of these reserves, when deciding rates required to raise exchangeable K status to adequate levels.

Bi-criteria single machine scheduling problem with a learning effect: Aneja-Nair method to obtain the set of optimal sequences

In this paper, we consider the bi-criteria single machine scheduling problem of n jobs with a learning effect. The two objectives considered are the total completion time (TC) and total absolute differences in completion times (TADC). The objective is to find a sequence that performs well with respect to both the objectives: the total completion time and the total absolute differences in completion times. In an earlier study, a method of solving bi-criteria transportation problem is presented. In this paper, we use the methodology of solvin bi-criteria transportation problem, to our bi-criteria single machine scheduling problem with a learning effect, and obtain the set of optimal sequences,. Numerical examples are presented for illustrating the applicability and ease of understanding.

Using High Stakes Tests to Raise Achievement

“Educational reformers and most of the American public think that teachers ask too little of their pupils. These low expectations, they believe, result in watered-down curricula and a tolerance of mediocre teaching and inappropriate student behavior. The prophecy of low achievement thus becomes self-fulfilling.”

Comment: Eigenvalue sensitivity method for optimal stabilisation of linear systems

In a letter RauA proposed a new method for designing statefeedback controllers using eigenvalue sensitivity matrices. However, there appears to be a conceptual mistake in the procedure, or else it is unduly restricted in its applicability. In particular the equation — BR~lBTK = A/.I, in which K is a positive-definite symmetric matrix.

D-MG Tradeoff and Optimal Codes for a Class of AF and DF Cooperative Communication Protocols

Cooperative relay communication in a fading channel environment under the orthogonal amplify-and-forward (OAF), nonorthogonal and orthogonal selection decode-and-forward (NSDF and OSDF) protocols is considered here. The diversity-multiplexing gain tradeoff (DMT) of the three protocols is determined and DMT-optimal distributed space-time (ST) code constructions are provided. The codes constructed are sphere decodable and in some instances incur minimum possible delay. Included in our results is the perhaps surprising finding that the orthogonal and the nonorthogonal amplify-and-forward (NAF) protocols have identical DMT when the time durations of the broadcast and cooperative phases are optimally chosen to suit the respective protocol. Moreover our code construction for the OAF protocol incurs less delay. Two variants of the NSDF protocol are considered: fixed-NSDF and variable-NSDF protocol. In the variable-NSDF protocol, the fraction of time occupied by the broadcast phase is allowed to vary with multiplexing gain. The variable-NSDF protocol is shown to improve on the DMT of the best previously known static protocol when the number of relays is greater than two. Also included is a DMT optimal code construction for the NAF protocol.

Learning Optimal Discriminant Functions through a Cooperative Game of Automata

The problem of learning correct decision rules to minimize the probability of misclassification is a long-standing problem of supervised learning in pattern recognition. The problem of learning such optimal discriminant functions is considered for the class of problems where the statistical properties of the pattern classes are completely unknown. The problem is posed as a game with common payoff played by a team of mutually cooperating learning automata. This essentially results in a probabilistic search through the space of classifiers. The approach is inherently capable of learning discriminant functions that are nonlinear in their parameters also. A learning algorithm is presented for the team and convergence is established. It is proved that the team can obtain the optimal classifier to an arbitrary approximation. Simulation results with a few examples are presented where the team learns the optimal classifier.

Guaiac versus immunochemical tests: Faecal occult blood test screening for colorectal cancer in a rural community

Objective: To describe patient participation and clinical performance in a colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program utilising faecal occult blood test (FOBT). Methods: A community-based intervention was conducted in a small, rural community in north Queensland, 2000/01. One of two FOBT kits – guaiac (Hemoccult-ll) or immunochemical (Inform) – was assigned by general practice and mailed to participants (3,358 patients aged 50–74 years listed with the local practices). Results: Overall participation in FOBT screening was 36.3%. Participation was higher with the immunochemical kit than the guaiac kit (OR=1.9, 95% Cl 1.6-2.2). Women were more likely to comply with testing than men (OR=1.4, 95% Cl 1.2-1.7), and people in their 60s were less likely to participate than those 70–74 years (OR=0.8, 95% Cl 0.6-0.9). The positivity rate was higher for the immunochemical (9.5%) than the guaiac (3.9%) test (χ2=9.2, p=0.002), with positive predictive values for cancer or adenoma of advanced pathology of 37.8% (95% Cl 28.1–48.6) for !nform and 40.0% (95% Cl 16.8–68.7) for Hemoccult-ll. Colonoscopy follow-up was 94.8% with a medical complication rate of 2–3%. Conclusions: An immunochemical FOBT enhanced participation. Higher positivity rates for this kit did not translate into higher false-positive rates, and both test types resulted in a high yield of neoplasia. Implications: In addition to type of FOBT, the ultimate success of a population-based screening program for CRC using FOBT will depend on appropriate education of health professionals and the public as well as significant investment in medical infrastructure for colonoscopy follow-up.

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.